The Official Stock Market Thread

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I have one that I think is going to fly over the next year if the rotation turns to value. I am waiting on posting it because I don't have as big of a position in it as I want.

You actually think posting your tip on a card forum will move the needle too much? Shout out the ticker.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

You actually think posting your tip on a card forum will move the needle too much? Shout out the ticker.

And you think this is the only place where I comment?

I won't post until my order is full.

Edit: I am also realizing that the volume may be a problem.

[JMarchand1981]

I'm Full! LYTS- Definitely do your own due diligence on this one, but based on my estimates I believe it's trading at a fairly substantial discount to intrinsic value.

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I'm Full! LYTS- Definitely do your own due diligence on this one, but based on my estimates I believe it's trading at a fairly substantial discount to intrinsic value.

The light company?

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I'm Full! LYTS- Definitely do your own due diligence on this one, but based on my estimates I believe it's trading at a fairly substantial discount to intrinsic value.

What the heck... I did well with your AI pick so picked up 100 LYTS at $8.80.

[finfangfan]

DKNG dropping quite a bit this AM.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

What the heck... I did well with your AI pick so picked up 100 LYTS at $8.80.

LOL I love this. So, its low volume. That sucks because you may not always get the best price when selling.

However, Hang on. I will give you the figures:

TTM EPS is .16
I am expecting 50% earnings growth(My expectation is based on their forecast and they have a better history of positive surprises than negative ones)
I have my risk free rate set to 2%.

I think these are fair expectations.

Formula for intrinsic value is:

(TTM EPS*(.07+(Exp. Growth))*(AA US Corpo. Index*2)/RFR

The .07 is the p/e of a company with no growth(remember, we are finding intrinsic value, just what you can quantify)

or

(.16*(.07+.50))*(1.53*2)/2%

It comes out to $13.95 intrinsic value.

You can kind of jumble the numbers how you want, but this is pretty close to the Benjamin Graham formula of determining intrinsic value.

Again, do your own due diligence. This is part of mine, about a third of it.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by ksemmel

The light company?

Yeah, have you followed it before? It is pretty obscure. I am pretty damn impressed.

[finfangfan]

I will remember to use a limit if I buy/sell LYTS in the future. I have another lightly traded stock (KRUS) that I always need to set limits b/c of light trading and relatively large gap between bid/ask.

[finfangfan]

Wow... VGAC just shot up 12%! Time to trim!

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

I will remember to use a limit if I buy/sell LYTS in the future. I have another lightly traded stock (KRUS) that I always need to set limits b/c of light trading and relatively large gap between bid/ask.

Yeah, that is the best way to navigate the thinly-traded. LYTS isn't really a "Trading" stock. It's a 3-12 month type of stock. Obviously, if it goes nuclear and rockets up 15% in a day, by all means. However, the chart tells me that it's more of a steady climber than a rocket ship.

[JMarchand1981]

The market is green. I am red today. I hate when that happens.

[jeg2315]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

The market is green. I am red today. I hate when that happens.

I'm basically flat today, not seeing a lot of breadth. Feels like TSLA is "holding up" the S&P.

China stocks flying again...BIDU, PDD, BABA. Retail sagging with the minimum wage talk as well - COST getting hit hard in particular.

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by jeg2315

I'm basically flat today, not seeing a lot of breadth. Feels like TSLA is "holding up" the S&P.

China stocks flying again...BIDU, PDD, BABA. Retail sagging with the minimum wage talk as well - COST getting hit hard in particular.

Which is funny because I’m 90% sure Costco already pays their employees above $15 an hour. Could be wrong but I bet the majority of them make well above that.

[jeg2315]

Originally Posted by Josh611

Which is funny because I’m 90% sure Costco already pays their employees above $15 an hour. Could be wrong but I bet the majority of them make well above that.

Indeed, likely some misinformation going around and fear generally. Added to my position on it today - they're run too well to stay down like this.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by jeg2315

I'm basically flat today, not seeing a lot of breadth. Feels like TSLA is "holding up" the S&P.

China stocks flying again...BIDU, PDD, BABA. Retail sagging with the minimum wage talk as well - COST getting hit hard in particular.

Originally Posted by Josh611

Which is funny because I’m 90% sure Costco already pays their employees above $15 an hour. Could be wrong but I bet the majority of them make well above that.

Originally Posted by jeg2315

Indeed, likely some misinformation going around and fear generally. Added to my position on it today - they're run too well to stay down like this.

Cost is such a great company.

[thunderdood]

Anyone a buyer of CRM? Big pull pack since it's acquisition.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by thunderdood

Anyone a buyer of CRM? Big pull pack since it's acquisition.

Bought it and sold it. There are many stocks with much better movement than CRM right now. The purchase of....what company was it?....slack?...was not regarded very well by the big money managers. It's just rolling forward goodwill at a time when that isn't what the market wants. They zigged when Wall Street wanted a zag.

That said, it should be $300 This time next year, unless tech gets the big old DC crackdown. Currently? Wildly overpriced and out of favor.

Here's my disclaimer: I own the October 2021 $280 calls. My narrative supports that position.

[thunderdood]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

Bought it and sold it. There are many stocks with much better movement than CRM right now. The purchase of....what company was it?....slack?...was not regarded very well by the big money managers. It's just rolling forward goodwill at a time when that isn't what the market wants. They zigged when Wall Street wanted a zag.

That said, it should be $300 This time next year, unless tech gets the big old DC crackdown. Currently? Wildly overpriced and out of favor.

Here's my disclaimer: I own the October 2021 $280 calls. My narrative supports that position.

I have a spread position on CRM.

Own 2/12 $217.5 call
Sold 2/12 $230 call
Sold 2/12 $207.5 put

[patchgenie]

Another day of garbage stocks like GRTS and ACRS going to the moon. we may have a vaccine someday that no one will use and will sell for barely above cost. GREAT - 1 billion MC. a trial with 3 placebo patients and 19 in total. GREAT - let's go up 200% as well.

I have some good ideas i think

FGEN - i'm just waiting for FDA approval on this one. they are just looking under the hood at safety data, but it was approved in China and has good sales. should find out on march 20. no real competition with AKBA flopping.

PRTC - has 387 million of cash, KRTX value = 3,439,897*98.33 = 334 million, so about 721 million of value. MC of 1.4 billion. they will get a royalty on karuna's drugs. the data from their latest one seemed to be great. The will have an IPO for Vor Pharma, which does stem cells and CAR-T stuff. they own 11.8% of the company. also owns 50% of vedanta biosciences which does IBD drugs. seems to be interesting.

CWH - earnings before market opens Feb. 25. i was going to buy some calls a day or two earlier.

[JMarchand1981]

Jack is back!

Jack Ma has been seen and BABA is soaring, up 7% in premarket

[ballhawkdawk]

I’ve been picking up shares of HEC. They’re an acquisition company with a deal in place to buy Talkspace, an online mental health platform. It’ll be the first online mental health stock to go public. My average is $11.74. Actually averaged up yesterday to gobble up more shares.

They have celebrities like Demi Lovato and Michael Phelps pimping the service. It’s expanded from text only to over the phone and live video, and it’s based on subscription service instead of hourly or per visit. There are limitations, such as they can’t prescribe drugs like Xanax and adderrall and whatever else, but otherwise it’s full service therapy without the face to face and exorbitant cost. It helps provide therapy to those with lower income, those with limited access, and those who simply would prefer something other than in person. It also helps therapists fill gaps in schedule.

Worth looking into IMO

[finfangfan]

Looks like my 2 gambling stocks (DKNG and DMYD) are going to have nice bounces this morning.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Looks like my 2 gambling stocks (DKNG and DMYD) are going to have nice bounces this morning.

I hold dkng and gnog. Gnog is killing me. Biggest loser in my portfolio at around 10%.

[mike1498]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

Jack is back!

Jack Ma has been seen and BABA is soaring, up 7% in premarket

It's never too late to join. This is still cheap for a large cap.