The Official Options Thread

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

It had nothing to do with options. I looked at the dark pool data. If Wall St. is selling hard I sell with them. If they buy hard, I buy with them. When I saw they were selling off GOOG pretty hard I followed them. They were selling MSFT too just not as hard as GOOG which is why I passed on playing MSFT.

This way doesn't always work out though and it's considered higher risk to take trades based off it which is why I went light with only 3 contracts.


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FOMC today @ 2pm est. So I won't be actively trading prior to 2pm.


The most I'll probably do is sell my GOOG puts and watch for TSLA to reject 190 or break below 180


SPX: watching 4900 key level. Mark your levels get the top/bottom range and watch the ATRs.


Any trade I take before 2pm will be light size, I'll go heavier @ 2pm when the fun starts.

SPX: watching 4900 key level✅ - up $1.2k per contract of you caught the 4900 reject.





Gains from GOOG puts and SPX puts $7.6k.

GOOG puts went from $560 > $1,150

SPX puts went from $1,200 > $2,600.

All out of every thing. No more trades until FOMC.

[Blazed]

FOMC in 15. Powell in 45.

SPX gave us the range - 4906 top 4669/4966 bottom I'll be watching those 2 levels + ATR's. Ignore volume during events.

Not trading until Powell comes on.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

FOMC in 15. Powell in 45.

SPX gave us the range - 4906 top 4669/4966 bottom I'll be watching those 2 levels + ATR's. Ignore volume during events.

Not trading until Powell comes on.

SPX gave us the range - 4906 top 4869/4866 bottom✅ (I just saw there was a typo in the post - was typing on my phone my fault)- waited patiently for 4906 to hit and entered puts. Took puts all the way down to 4860 (wanted to get 4850 but bounced early and I lost some premium)

Awesome day today. $21.9k for the day.




Patience is key and I didn't take a trade until my level was hit - held through 4869/4866 because we blew past those levels and became resistance.




Back at it tomorrow.

[ajlaxmn]

That is a sweet day. Will probably wait next week as well, then will start scheduling 2 1/2 hours off possibly twice a week so that I can focus on trading without distraction from work. Except during OPEX, so if two weeks from now is OPEX I will probably wait that week as well.

Blaze, any suggestion for what might be the best days to take a couple hours off in the morning to trade on non-OPEX weeks? Just curious.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

That is a sweet day. Will probably wait next week as well, then will start scheduling 2 1/2 hours off possibly twice a week so that I can focus on trading without distraction from work. Except during OPEX, so if two weeks from now is OPEX I will probably wait that week as well.

Blaze, any suggestion for what might be the best days to take a couple hours off in the morning to trade on non-OPEX weeks? Just curious.

When I look back at my daily P&L Mon and Fri seem to be days where I don't take as many trades. Tues, Weds, Thurs are usually my best days.

So I'd say any of those 3 days.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

When I look back at my daily P&L Mon and Fri seem to be days where I don't take as many trades. Tues, Weds, Thurs are usually my best days.

So I'd say any of those 3 days.

That's what I was leaning towards, thought Monday and Friday may be the days with less movement.

[Blazed]

January went by fast, this year will be over before you know it.

Had a nice sell off yesterday and everything was oversold so we got a nice bounce on Futures. It would be a good idea to wait this morning before trading to see what the market decides to do. If we break yesterdays low we have a ways to go down.


Data @ 9:45 & 10 and NFP tomorrow.


Big earnings after the bell - AAPL META AMZN looking to play AAPL and META if I can get an edge, I'll see where we are during power hour.


SPX: Check levels and find the key level for the day. Gaps @ 4916 from yesterday & 4842 is still open from Jan 22nd.

By now we should be able to find SPX levels, give it a shot this month and see what you come up with. Key level then find the tradable range for top & bottom levels.


Watching:

SPY: Watch premarket high's & low's for breaks

TSLA: still on watch, we're staying below 190 > if we can break 190 there's room to 207 (check hourly).

Let the trades come to you and don't force or chase and watch for confirmations as we approach levels.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

January went by fast, this year will be over before you know it.

Had a nice sell off yesterday and everything was oversold so we got a nice bounce on Futures. It would be a good idea to wait this morning before trading to see what the market decides to do. If we break yesterdays low we have a ways to go down.


Data @ 9:45 & 10 and NFP tomorrow.


Big earnings after the bell - AAPL META AMZN looking to play AAPL and META if I can get an edge, I'll see where we are during power hour.


SPX: Check levels and find the key level for the day. Gaps @ 4916 from yesterday & 4842 is still open from Jan 22nd.

By now we should be able to find SPX levels, give it a shot this month and see what you come up with. Key level then find the tradable range for top & bottom levels.


Watching:

SPY: Watch premarket high's & low's for breaks

TSLA: still on watch, we're staying below 190 > if we can break 190 there's room to 207 (check hourly).

Let the trades come to you and don't force or chase and watch for confirmations as we approach levels.

Here is where I think I didn't catch some of the Gaps, I was looking at 4924 because that's where we closed two days ago, but since the low from two days ago was 4916, that is the Gap, not just necessarily where the day closed?

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Here is where I think I didn't catch some of the Gaps, I was looking at 4924 because that's where we closed two days ago, but since the low from two days ago was 4916, that is the Gap, not just necessarily where the day closed?

Correct. Any space in-between there is the "gap".


2 screenshots for visuals.

[ajlaxmn]

Not in anything yet, saw the signs of reversal on volume, but didn't want to front run with data at 10, had I taken 4870 P at reject after break below I would have got nice 10 point move, but I got burned on taking a trade ahead of 10 AM data once, so didn't want to repeat, would possibly had taken trade had reversal been more apparent as opposed to right at close of second 15m SPY candle.

[Blazed]

I don't see anything I like so probably calling it a morning here. Alerts set for 4903/5 reject on SPX.

Flow keeps flipping and not giving a direction.

I'll check back power hour for AAPL/META.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I don't see anything I like so probably calling it a morning here. Alerts set for 4903/5 reject on SPX.

Flow keeps flipping and not giving a direction.

I'll check back power hour for AAPL/META.

I was in 4870 C based on break above and retest at 10:15, held through being own $400 as I had 4865 as support after being prior resistance. Broke back 4870 but couldn't climb any higher than 4875, was hoping for 4880 so I could exit, but flow is just selling and immediate buying then selling then buying. Was up $250 at one point. Sold for $80 profit.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

I was in 4870 C based on break above and retest at 10:15, held through being own $400 as I had 4865 as support after being prior resistance. Broke back 4870 but couldn't climb any higher than 4875, was hoping for 4880 so I could exit, but flow is just selling and immediate buying then selling then buying. Was up $250 at one point. Sold for $80 profit.

Nice management and patience on that position. I was watching flow and even when we got that volume spike flow was sideways so I passed on entering anything. Looks like they're digesting yesterdays FOMC report and preparing for NFP tomorrow.

We could also get a nice move later in the day after they kill a few premiums then look for liquidity.

Based on technicals (not looking at flow or volume) we should hit 4890 area, but might be a slow grind up with some chop.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Nice management and patience on that position. I was watching flow and even when we got that volume spike flow was sideways so I passed on entering anything. Looks like they're digesting yesterdays FOMC report and preparing for NFP tomorrow.

We could also get a nice move later in the day after they kill a few premiums then look for liquidity.

Based on technicals (not looking at flow or volume) we should hit 4890 area, but might be a slow grind up with some chop.

Well, there's the liquidity grab. Took 1 call off the ATR to see what we do here.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Well, there's the liquidity grab. Took 1 call off the ATR to see what we do here.

Well, there's the liquidity grab. Took 1 call off the ATR to see what we do here.✅- worked out perfect. Went level to level. Contract went from $1,000 > $1,860

Gains for the day $860




Done for now, back @ power hour.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Nice management and patience on that position. I was watching flow and even when we got that volume spike flow was sideways so I passed on entering anything. Looks like they're digesting yesterdays FOMC report and preparing for NFP tomorrow.

We could also get a nice move later in the day after they kill a few premiums then look for liquidity.

Based on technicals (not looking at flow or volume) we should hit 4890 area, but might be a slow grind up with some chop.

Based on technicals (not looking at flow or volume) we should hit 4890 area✅- I sold too early. But volume wasn't too convincing at the time when I grabbed the 1. I actually entered calls off strong selling volume, which is also why I only took 1.


But there you go. 4890 area lol.




Volume - no idea where the huge volume spike came from. I exited at the ATR because buyers were slowing.




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That's crazy, if $10k is the average there's a lot that owe more. $10k+ in CC debt with CC interest rates 20% or higher? The student loan debt is hilarious too. Not sure what people are thinking when they dig these holes.

Fun times ahead when it all comes crashing down.

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Based on technicals (not looking at flow or volume) we should hit 4890 area✅- I sold too early. But volume wasn't too convincing at the time when I grabbed the 1. I actually entered calls off strong selling volume, which is also why I only took 1.


But there you go. 4890 area lol.




Volume - no idea where the huge volume spike came from. I exited at the ATR because buyers were slowing.




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That's crazy, if $10k is the average there's a lot that owe more. $10k+ in CC debt with CC interest rates 20% or higher? The student loan debt is hilarious too. Not sure what people are thinking when they dig these holes.

Fun times ahead when it all comes crashing down.

I reported $12k in CC “debt” in the past month. It’s all paid off. Sure there are people in real debt, but there’s just as many people who use the cards responsibly for every single expense they have.

It’s just such a terrible statistic.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Josh611

I reported $12k in CC “debt” in the past month. It’s all paid off. Sure there are people in real debt, but there’s just as many people who use the cards responsibly for every single expense they have.

It’s just such a terrible statistic.

Of course, I pay mine in full every month too. I was taking it as rolling balances that people can't get out from under because of the interest piling on top. It wouldn't make sense to report on how much someone's statement is per month if it's paid in full and no balance carried over.

I'd also say some (probably a small %) of the CC debt isn't even from reckless spending, it's because prices have increased so much for every day items they have no other choice but to charge it and are unable to pay it off every month. Not really their fault.

Really sad to see people struggling out there. And anyone who believes the inflation numbers we've been told needs to put on their big red nose and floppy shoes.

[Blazed]

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 353,000 jobs last month


SPX: 4900 key level / 4950 top 4850 bottom - gap still open @ 4916


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Worth noting



There are a ton of statistics and charts out there that would suggest market is dead man walking. P to C levels are insane right now and just the debt statistic alone is concerning but, the market is at ATH and I would be very surprised if anything unusual happens to peoples 401k during an election year.

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Of course, I pay mine in full every month too. I was taking it as rolling balances that people can't get out from under because of the interest piling on top. It wouldn't make sense to report on how much someone's statement is per month if it's paid in full and no balance carried over.

I'd also say some (probably a small %) of the CC debt isn't even from reckless spending, it's because prices have increased so much for every day items they have no other choice but to charge it and are unable to pay it off every month. Not really their fault.

Really sad to see people struggling out there. And anyone who believes the inflation numbers we've been told needs to put on their big red nose and floppy shoes.

I could be wrong, but I’ve always taken that data as whatever is reported ina given month to the credit bureaus. I don’t know how anyone would distinguish between balances that get paid off and those that accumulate.

Guess it depends on the source of the data.

[Jichael Mordan]

yo yo! I dont trade options but do day trade. 6 months consistently profitable trader after a LONG road.

[Blazed]

Data and Fed speakers today.

SPX: watching 4906 & 4930 (watching these because they've been solid S/R last week) - take a shot at finding the other levels (top/bottom) + watch the ATRs.

Keep 5000 on watch. Huge resistance wall when we get there, won't happen today.

Watching:

BABA: adding more BABA equity to my long term account and selling covered puts a year out.

Be patient, don't force or rush trades and follow your plan on entries and exits.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Data and Fed speakers today.

SPX: watching 4906 & 4930 (watching these because they've been solid S/R last week) - take a shot at finding the other levels (top/bottom) + watch the ATRs.

Keep 5000 on watch. Huge resistance wall when we get there, won't happen today.

Watching:

BABA: adding more BABA equity to my long term account and selling covered puts a year out.

Be patient, don't force or rush trades and follow your plan on entries and exits.

4906 is a gap level forgot to mention that.

[Blazed]

Still in SPX puts off the last close reject - trimmed @ 4931 ATR. Seeing of we can get to 4915 ATR > then gap. If not I'll fully exit runners @ break above 4931 ATR.






Also watching for signs of a reversal for call entry.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Still in SPX puts off the last close reject - trimmed @ 4931 ATR. Seeing of we can get to 4915 ATR > then gap. If not I'll fully exit runners @ break above 4931 ATR.

Also watching for signs of a reversal for call entry.

All out of put runners @ break above. Never got a call entry so missed the upside. 4950 coming up would be good to watch if still trading.

Gains from trade $8.4k

Also added more BABA equity and sold -BABA260116P75. Long term hold, doesn't make sense why BABA is this low other than China's crappy economy. Earnings this week too.

Might check back power hour to see where market is. PYPL / DIS earnings coming up this week.