Luka Doncic Questionable Autograph Analysis

[RAV2773]

Originally Posted by rogermaris

EDIT: not worth it

Best words to sum up this thread

[Pat3ntP3nd1ng]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Woahh now! Rogermaris is a very respectable member of these boards.

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Originally Posted by Asian62150

Not everyone has to comment on everything. It's even somewhat refreshing to not hear the same people in every thread on every topic. It's an open forum, after all.

And sometimes I personally don't post because others have said the same thing in a better way than I could.

I’m not referring to Rogermaris. The simple fact that this thread has 60 pages to it and others that have more serious and egregious fraud topics doesn’t speaks volumes. My post was out of frustration. To see the rampant scams overtaking this hobby only to have a few try and police it while everyone else just hopes things will change is disheartening. For instance, the so called “PANINI PATCH DATABASE” that was supposed to come out around the same time that they started doing the points and rewards program 8 years ago. Where is it? Why haven’t they mentioned since then?

Collectively is how we change this but I’m not holding out much hope at the moment.

Don’t mean to hijack the LuLu thread. Rant over for now. Carryon.

[theleica]

There is really no solution here unless Luka came out and said he didn't sign everything.

The harder you fight for a particular side, the stronger your conviction. Even if a handwriting expert was hired, folks would have a hard time accepting the results that were on the opposing side.

Honestly, the only solution is to buy what you to believe his real signature. If it is every card, go for it. If it is only particular cards, go for it.

There is a lot of great information here but at this point there isn't any new information. See you guys in 4 months when this gets rehashed again.

[DirkNFan]

If this helps put people at ease that got Luka's autographed card/picture from his website, my Luka autographed card/picture from his website did get authenticated by PSA last weekend without any issue.

[beavers]

Originally Posted by theleica

There is really no solution here unless Luka came out and said he didn't sign everything.

The harder you fight for a particular side, the stronger your conviction. Even if a handwriting expert was hired, folks would have a hard time accepting the results that were on the opposing side.

Honestly, the only solution is to buy what you to believe his real signature. If it is every card, go for it. If it is only particular cards, go for it.

There is a lot of great information here but at this point there isn't any new information. See you guys in 4 months when this gets rehashed again.

The 5x7’s are a new data point and they contain Lulu’s. Either you believe he had help signing those very recently or he actually signed the stickers. People are ignoring all of the information in support of Lulu’s being real. For example, not a word about he euro league auto on the last page that is a Lulu and certainly authentic.

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by beavers

The 5x7’s are a new data point and they contain Lulu’s. Either you believe he had help signing those very recently or he actually signed the stickers. People are ignoring all of the information in support of Lulu’s being real. For example, not a word about he euro league auto on the last page that is a Lulu and certainly authentic.

I think you're confused. I literally included the euro league auto in the first post of this thread as an example of a real lulu auto. The argument has never been that he doesn't sign his name as lulu. It's that many of the lulu autos, particularly the ones signed during the 2018-19 season, appear to be inconsistent with the real ones.

I understand you may have a different opinion about whether the questionable lulus are consistent with the real ones, but you should at least take the time to read through the thread so you can understand what you're arguing against.

Here is the original post of this thread, which includes the euroleage autos as authentic exemplars, since I assume you haven't read it...

Originally Posted by rogermaris

For those who aren't aware, some people have questioning whether Luka signs all his autographs. There's been a lot of back and forth in various threads, but I haven't seen anyone do any real analysis, so I thought I'd give it a shot. Personally, I've come to the conclusion that Luka is NOT signing all his cards.

The whole situation becomes a lot simpler when you look at it chronologically. So let's begin at the start, with Luka's original autograph from BEFORE he entered the NBA.




CHARACTERISTICS:
- Reads as "lulu"
- Nearly vertical
- Very tall and compressed
- Fast, sketchy
- "L"s are generally much taller than "U"s

This is Doncic’s original autograph. Very similar to the controversal “Lulu” autograph, right? Case closed, right? Nope! Keep reading...

Here's the second iteration of Luka's autograph:



CHARACTERISTICS:
- No longer reads as "lulu"
- Nearly vertical
- Very tall and compressed
- Fast, sketchy
- "L"s often come close to touching
- "L"s are generally much taller than "U"s

Doncic's autograph changes once he makes it to the NBA, to no surprise. He's signing more than ever. And like most NBA players who are forced to sign a semingly endless supply of rookie cards, he shortens his signature. You can see how he derived his new, shortened signature from his original “Lulu” one. I've included the jersey he signed in person for the kid (that was linked in the other thread) because I've seen it used as an example of an IP signature that matches the questionable "Lulu" ones. However, it clearly matches his new, fast signature that he's developed, as you can see when it's placed side by side with others. It's still way taller and more compressed and more rushed than the questionable "Lulu" signatures. Also note that this shortened signature is the one Doncic uses on his earliest released draft cards from Panini.

For some players though, shortening their signature is not enough. So perhaps, like many athlete's facing this situation, he enlists some outside help. Be it his mom, a friend, whoever. This person is instructed to forge his signature. But of course, they don't forge his newly shortened signature. They attempt to forge his original, "Lulu" signature.

Which is why in Panini's second wave of releases, the strange new "Lulu" signature suddenly appears...



CHARACTERISTICS:
- Reads as "lulu," but does not match original "lulu" autographs
- Slow and neat
- Not compressed; lots of space between letters
- Wide letters, big loops
- Some examples have all letters same height; "L"s not tall enough compared to "U"s

Even when you compare this new Lulu autograph to his original, pre-NBA autograph, they don't match. The size, speed, compression are all different. The variation between them is about as much as you would expect between any two random individuals who attempt to write "Lulu" in cursive. If you asked my mom to forge Luka's original pre-NBA signature, she would probably come up with something very close to the questionable "Lulu" signatures. It looks like it could have been written by anyone proficient in cursive, but it does not match Luka's handwriting.

And of course, narratively it makes no sense. Am I supposed to believe that in the middle of shortening his autograph to make it faster to sign, Luka suddenly decides to make it longer and slower than it was before he entered the NBA? I can't think of any reason why he'd do that and in fact it runs counter to his motivation for shortening his autograph in the first place.

But that being said, I did my absolute best to create an alternative narrative that would explain the chronological evolution of Doncic's signature...

ALTERNATE NARRATIVE A: Doncic shortened and sped up his signature when he first got to the NBA, but then for some unexplicable reason, he starts alternating between his new "fast" signature, and an extremely neat, slow version of his autograph, the likes of which we've never seen. Even neater and slower than his pre-NBA autograph. And he's using his new, neater version of his autograph to sign thousands of stickers. It would be one thing if he debuted his slow, neat signature on a handful of high end cards, but these are sticker autos we're talking about. If Luka has developed a shortened, faster signature, one would assume he'd be using it for sticker autos. Honestly, this ss the only other narrative I can even think to introduce, despite the fact that it doesn't make sense.

If you still have doubts, just look at a comparison between his pre-NBA sticker auto and the sticker autos we're seeing now.

Pre-NBA "Lulu" sticker auto (small, tall, compressed, "L" much taller than "U"):



Current questionable "Lulu" sticker auto (slow, wide, stout, all letters same height):



TL;DR: I'm dubious about the recent "Lulu" autographs. That being said, I'm open to alternate narratives, if anyone wants to try and build one...

I also want to add that I have no dog in this fight. I don't even collect modern cards and was not aware of this controversy until very recently. I just think it's potentially damaging for the hobby in general and worth discussing.

[jmcca170]

Speaking of unquestioned autos... anyone heard when he’s signing for fanatics again ? Want to buy myself an auto photo of his “bang bang” which is sure will be a thing


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[Chris P]

Originally Posted by jmcca170

Speaking of unquestioned autos... anyone heard when he’s signing for fanatics again ? Want to buy myself an auto photo of his “bang bang” which is sure will be a thing


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Last year there was a dual auto'd photo of him and Dirk and I realllllly wish now I would've bought it. A passing the torch kind of collectible

[Miggy4583]

Are the Luka Euro league autos for sure in the good category? No questions they're legit right? I'm specifically talking about the stickers that have the #7 inscribed.

[Miggy4583]

To the post above this is the signature I am talking about https://www.ebay.com/itm/2017-Upper-...d058%7Ciid%3A1

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by Miggy4583

To the post above this is the signature I am talking about https://www.ebay.com/itm/2017-Upper-...d058%7Ciid%3A1

Yes, those autographs have never been in question.

[al3xmac10]

Originally Posted by rogermaris

Yes, those autographs have never been in question.

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Luka exhibits these skips in both his questioned and unquestioned autos. This to me is the most compelling proof that Luka signs ALL OF HIS AUTOS. Sounds like you guys agree.

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=====
***moving this question from the official Luka thread:***

I have a question (especially for rogermaris & theLUCKYshow):

Here are 2 instances of Luka signing, recorded on video, and there are no skips in his autograph, making these exemplars of 100% authentic, unquestioned Luka autos.
Are there any videos of him signing with the "skip"?

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by al3xmac10

=====
***moving this question from the official Luka thread:***

I have a question (especially for rogermaris & theLUCKYshow):

Here are 2 instances of Luka signing, recorded on video, and there are no skips in his autograph, making these exemplars of 100% authentic, unquestioned Luka autos.
Are there any videos of him signing with the "skip"?

The argument is this...

1. The autos in the videos are authentic
2. Autos that look identical to the ones in the videos sometimes have skips (https://www.ebay.com/itm/LUKA-DONCIC...8AAOSw4A1fyKQ4)
3. All other versions of Luka autos sometimes have skips in the same spots.
4. It is extremely difficult to fake a skip in an autograph.

Therefore, they are all authentic, regardless if the skips are recorded in a video.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by TSonn

The argument is this...

1. The autos in the videos are authentic
2. Autos that look identical to the ones in the videos sometimes have skips (https://www.ebay.com/itm/LUKA-DONCIC...8AAOSw4A1fyKQ4)
3. All other versions of Luka autos sometimes have skips in the same spots.
4. It is extremely difficult to fake a skip in an autograph.

Therefore, they are all authentic, regardless if the skips are recorded in a video.

This and tyty TSonn!

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[Kuch86]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Luka typically likes to use tall Ls in his signature but the stickers arent a natural fit for that style of auto. So yeah for Luka I think he had to be more deliberate signing stickers. I dont think that logic is silly at all.

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No... you just make your signature smaller. Not change it.

But I get it... you have a large vested interest in his autos all being real.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by Kuch86

No... you just make your signature smaller. Not change it.



But I get it... you have a large vested interest in his autos all being real.

Ouch! Lol do you know how many times I've heard that BS throughout this thread? It's like you guys can't come up with a rebuttal against luka's distinct skips in both his questioned and unquestioned autos so you lazily attack my motive.

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[theleica]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Ouch! Lol do you know how many times I've heard that BS throughout this thread? It's like you guys can't come up with a rebuttal against luka's distinct skips in both his questioned and unquestioned autos so you lazily attack my motive.

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Just got this in the mail from Fanatics - - -

Photo Dec 18, 14 20 04 by A H, on Flickr

Photo Dec 18, 14 20 14 by A H, on Flickr

[spacewrangler]

Originally Posted by theleica

Just got this in the mail from Fanatics - - -

Photo Dec 18, 14 20 04 by A H, on Flickr

Photo Dec 18, 14 20 14 by A H, on Flickr

Dang that Nike Authentic is classy. Nice one.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by theleica

Just got this in the mail from Fanatics - - -



Photo Dec 18, 14 20 04 by A H, on Flickr



Photo Dec 18, 14 20 14 by A H, on Flickr

Originally Posted by theleica

Just got this in the mail from Fanatics - - -



Photo Dec 18, 14 20 04 by A H, on Flickr



Photo Dec 18, 14 20 14 by A H, on Flickr

Great piece, congrats! Luka has definitely cleaned up his jersey autos compared to many of his scribbly ones from last year.

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[Kuch86]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Ouch! Lol do you know how many times I've heard that BS throughout this thread? It's like you guys can't come up with a rebuttal against luka's distinct skips in both his questioned and unquestioned autos so you lazily attack my motive.

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No need to get all upset. I'm unbiased in this all and just going with what I see and you are really grasping at straws in my opinion. I only responded to your ridiculous assertion that his auto is all of a sudden super neat and different because he is signing smaller stickers. I know you don't truly believe this. It's beyond dumb.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by Kuch86

No need to get all upset. I'm unbiased in this all and just going with what I see and you are really grasping at straws in my opinion. I only responded to your ridiculous assertion that his auto is all of a sudden super neat and different because he is signing smaller stickers. I know you don't truly believe this. It's beyond dumb.

You calling me dumb?!

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[theLUCKYshow]

Why not mix it up and look at some Trae autos. With some of his sticker autos, Trae signed slow and neat based on the legibility and deep saturation of the ink. In other sticker autos, he quickly scribbled "TY" and has no resemblance to his full version. This shows how sticker sheets can both slow down and speed up the way these guys sign their autos. And please don't start a Trae Questionable Autograph Thread peoples.
Sticker autos:

Compared to on-card auto:

[hairyangryfella]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Why not mix it up and look at some Trae autos. With some of his sticker autos, Trae signed slow and neat based on the legibility and deep saturation of the ink. In other sticker autos, he quickly scribbled "TY" and has no resemblance to his full version. This shows how sticker sheets change the way these guys sign their autos. And please don't start a Trae Questionable Autograph Thread peoples.

But Luka hasn't CHANGED his signature like shortening it, it became slower and neater which is the complete opposite of players who sign - they might start neat and tidy but then when they have to sign a bazillion Panini cards, they get sloppy.
There is no legitimate reason for him to go from quick and scruffy (his true signature) to an extremely neat auto when he signs MORE...

[chezball]

Sigs never become neater when shorten.
A woman signed some of those autos.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by hairyangryfella

There is no legitimate reason for him to go from quick and scruffy (his true signature) to an extremely neat auto when he signs MORE...

So his most recent unquestioned Immaculate autos are quick and scruffy? They look more like his sticker autos than his scribbly auto to me.

Immac unquestioned:


Sticker auto:


Scribbly unquestioned:


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