18/19 FOTL NT Basketball!

[ldsports]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

So what do you guys think one would have to hit in order to make it worth it NOT to have sold the box? Obviously Luka and Trae, but would hitting an Ayton, Bagley, etc. RPA make it worth leaving ~$3000 on the table?

I'm just trying to gauge how many outs I have if I decide to open the box. My luck though, I'll hit a Jevon Carter if I decide to open

There is no reasonable reason to open these.



That said i may open mine that is coming, but I am not reasonable

[istheskyblew]

Originally Posted by Simmonsllc25

Damn there are 50 rookies in the set assuming the 2 missing numbers are redemption. that means 1150 total boxes of FOTL. this just decreased everyones chances of luka.

thats not how it works. redemptions have numbers

[rw7183]

Originally Posted by smalltown

As long as it's not any big names. Big names essentially put an expiry date on anything left sealed.

Anybody here know the expiration date of the Donovan Mitchell redemption from last year.

[Simmonsllc25]

Originally Posted by istheskyblew

thats not how it works. redemptions have numbers

Do they usually have missing numbers?

[theleica]

Originally Posted by Simmonsllc25

Do they usually have missing numbers?

yes..

[ClipsandVols]

Originally Posted by rw7183

Anybody here know the expiration date of the Donovan Mitchell redemption from last year.

Kevin Brashear is trying to ensure that there is no expiration date.
https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...emption-cards/

But the Donovan redemptions "expire" 11/02/19

[GeechQuest]

Crazy that the FOTL boxes encompass roughly 7% of the entire print run but contain 16% of the RPAs in the product AT A MINIMUM. It's a minimum because obviously some boxes will contain an /99 RPA + the FOTL RPA.

FOTL RPA Ratio - 1 box:1 RPA (a little bit higher due to the multiple factor)
Hobby RPA Ratio - 2.5 boxes:1 RPA

Everything equal across the board, these should be worth 2.5x a hobby box, or around $3.5K.

[airharrison21]

Received tracking. Friday delivery! Woohoo

[ACCDADEAL]

I've been collecting basketball since 1995. Been doing national treasures since 2006 football. Also always got a Box of NT or exquisite basketball every year or cases. Due to the global market, Box breakers, and I suspect money laundering this whole hobby is becoming out of reach. I simply just wanted one affordable FOTK Box for me and my son and couldnt even achieve that or a basic box.
Oh well

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[jnmcards]

So let's do a little number extrapolation here:

~1100 FOTL boxes: these boxes will include every /20 Luka and Trae along with every /3 Luka and Trae - so that's 46 potential hits. Then figure what, another 10 of their /99 RPAs will be included in this run, so add another 20 for 66.

So not accounting for any odd edge cases (like two RPAs in a box, 1/1, etc.) you can roughly expect to get a Luka or Trae Vert RPA in one out of every 17 or so FOTL boxes.

[kobemagee29]

Originally Posted by ACCDADEAL

I've been collecting basketball since 1995. Been doing national treasures since 2006 football. Also always got a Box of NT or exquisite basketball every year or cases. Due to the global market, Box breakers, and I suspect money laundering this whole hobby is becoming out of reach. I simply just wanted one affordable FOTK Box for me and my son and couldnt even achieve that or a basic box.
Oh well

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

In the same boat & agree with everything you said.
Said thing is that it's only going to get worse.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Crazy that the FOTL boxes encompass roughly 7% of the entire print run but contain 16% of the RPAs in the product AT A MINIMUM. It's a minimum because obviously some boxes will contain an /99 RPA + the FOTL RPA.

FOTL RPA Ratio - 1 box:1 RPA (a little bit higher due to the multiple factor)
Hobby RPA Ratio - 2.5 boxes:1 RPA

Everything equal across the board, these should be worth 2.5x a hobby box, or around $3.5K.

Geech, where did you find the numbers to get 1 RPA for 2.5 boxes? I can't imagine anyone being happy that hobby is so watered down at the current prices. Could this mean a future drop in price?

[airharrison21]

Now that the checklist has been released, is anyone even more tempted to open? I have a feeling that we won't see many boxes busted Thursday/Friday but maybe I'm wrong.

[jgyankee23]

There is basically a 25-30% chance of pulling a decent player (for FOTL purposes). If you pull Shai, Ayton, Carter Jr, Sexton, Bagley, or JJJ you can’t really be that upset. May not pay for the current box price, and isn’t Luka or Trae, but not a total loss. Shamet, Knox, Holiday, Simons, Bamba, Zhaire, and Dante, aren’t terrible pulls either. Now if you pull Metu, Devon Carter, Okobo, Melton, Svi, or others, you better hope your box also has a Logoman or another RPA. In football some of the worst player FOTL /3’s pulled under $200 on eBay.


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[Miz]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Geech, where did you find the numbers to get 1 RPA for 2.5 boxes? I can't imagine anyone being happy that hobby is so watered down at the current prices. Could this mean a future drop in price?

Can some break down the stats of the cases?

[theleica]

Originally Posted by airharrison21

Now that the checklist has been released, is anyone even more tempted to open? I have a feeling that we won't see many boxes busted Thursday/Friday but maybe I'm wrong.

I have terrible luck with FOTL so as much as I enjoy ripping boxes, I am really contemplating just putting them in my closet and forgetting about them. Did the same with the 14 boxes of Prizm FOTL I got and that worked out well. I was pleasantly surprised by BOs offer a few weeks ago. Also, I just bought into 8 breaks for the Nets at $59 a piece so I have further reason not to open, although I'd be pissed if I pulled a Musa or Kurucs FOTL RPA from my boxes.

[CapitalPCards]

Finally got tracking. Was getting scared lol


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[istheskyblew]

Originally Posted by Miz

Can some break down the stats of the cases?

1.62 Vertical RPAs (including the Rookie Logoman Auto) per Case assuming 3400 cases

edit (according to my math)

[KhalDrogo]

How do you come to 3400 cases?

[bd3d86]

Originally Posted by CapitalPCards

Finally got tracking. Was getting scared lol


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I am getting nervous myself....still no tracking for me.

Whew....just came through.

[istheskyblew]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

How do you come to 3400 cases?

Total Number of cards (136272)/Number of cards in case (40)

For total # of hobby cases after the FOTL boxes you would use the below math, no way of telling how many non FOTL vertical RPAs will be placed FOTL boxes

(136272-11040)/40 = 3,130 hobby cases

[Miz]

Originally Posted by istheskyblew

1.62 Vertical RPAs (including the Rookie Logoman Auto) per Case assuming 3400 cases

edit (according to my math)

This is horrible

[bigbadballard]

Originally Posted by istheskyblew

Total Number of cards (136272)/Number of cards in case (40)

For total # of hobby cases after the FOTL boxes you would use the below math, no way of telling how many non FOTL vertical RPAs will be placed FOTL boxes

(136272-11040)/40 = 3,130 hobby cases

It doesn't look like the plates are on the checklist, so it may make more sense to assume 36-38 cards per case

(136272-11040)/37 = 3,384

[TheYoyo]

Originally Posted by bd3d86

I am getting nervous myself....still no tracking for me.

Whew....just came through.

what did your order number start with? I am still waiting for mine to ship

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by istheskyblew

Total Number of cards (136272)/Number of cards in case (40)

For total # of hobby cases after the FOTL boxes you would use the below math, no way of telling how many non FOTL vertical RPAs will be placed FOTL boxes

(136272-11040)/40 = 3,130 hobby cases

Gotcha. That gives a conservative estimate of vertical RPAs too. Have to figure that some percentage of the product is not packed out, reducing the # of cases.