***Official CAITLIN CLARK Thread***

[bluebirds987]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

I did an analysis of the print run / expected value / hit rate before the drop so I could have an idea of what I wanted to spend and at what points I would feel ok ripping versus just flipping. So far the singles prices have far exceeded what I modeled out, which has fueled the gigantic leap in box prices, so I sold my boxes for a solid profit. If anyone is seriously interested in the data I can share it.

The cards look amazing. I really wanted to rip this product, understanding that they are not game-worn or whatever the brand in the fine print on the back says, but it's hard to turn down guaranteed money and not feel horrible when I end up with cards worth less than what I could have potentially sold them for. That said, I fully expect to see an amazing Clark auto pop up on the buyer's IG next week.

I'd love to see your data. Initial prices have shot up higher than I expected (so much demand for on-card Caitlin Clark!) but I do think the Panini Instant disappointment combined with all of this product hitting at the same time will start to lower prices. This is probably the best time to sell unopened boxes.

[Gem10collection]

Serious!?! are CC Downtown's going for more than Wemby?

lol, some folks about to lose their shirts!! lololol

[Spacemanspif]

Here's the main portion of my post in a WNBA group (keep in mind it was pre-release so obviously prices may be off from what they are now)

As you all know, each box comes with one auto and one non-auto. There are 1504 numbered autos, and 132 numbered non-autos, which leaves 1372 guaranteed unnumbered non-autos (base Downtown or Kaboom), an average of 57.17 copies of each card.

However, there are also unnumbered Donruss Next Day Autographs, which is the only unknown variable. The highest print run of any other auto is 99, so I modeled things out assuming Next Days to either be around /49 or /99, which would put the total number of boxes at roughly 1600 or 1700 (which means around 70 base copies of each Downtown or Kaboom). Could there be more? Sure, I guess. But when looking at the checklist, it doesn't seem rational for every other card to be premium, short printed cards, and then just a print run of like 1000 Next Days "just cuz". To assume something out of the blue like that seems irrational and therefore is not assumed in this model.

Next, I actually estimated the value of each card in the set. It's by no means perfect, and honestly I feel a bit conservative, as I don't buy Clark or Reese autos and it just felt a bit weird putting such huge dollar signs next to each card. I'll list a couple here as examples with some rationale but don't feel it necessary to list and debate every single value, especially since I am just trying to determine a reasonable ballpark.

"Worst" Clark autos (Contenders /49 $3k, Next Day ~/100 $3k, Elite Pen Pals /49 $2500) - People pay close to $2k for base sticker autos, $3k for numbered sticker autos. I think on-card limited print autos being in the same price range is a reasonable assumption if not too low. FWIW I priced Reese autos from those brands as $100.
Flawless Patch Autos (/25, /20, /15, /10, /5) - $10k / $12.5k / $15k / $20k / $25k. Big money but again, if people are spending as much as $15k on a Mojo sticker auto or $50k+ on a Gold sticker auto, I don't think half that for on-card RPAs from the most prestigious premium brand is out of the question. I have Reese priced at $500-1500.

1/1s: There are 15 Caitlin Clark 1/1s in this product, which if you believe my print run math, means every box has almost a 1% chance of pulling a Clark 1/1 (there are 40 1/1s overall so around a 2.5% chance of pulling any player). I have the Clark 1/1s priced from $50k for brands like Contenders up to $250-500k for the WNBA Logo RPAs. Again, just go check the other sales of her various 1/1s. I guarantee there will be a new record sale for the NT and/or Flawless Logo 1/1s. For the remaining 25 non-Clark 1/1s I priced most at $1k and an overall average of $2k

Anyway, once you add up all the values across the whole set, I came up with a little over $11.3M. Which, divided by 1600-1700, you get an expected value of $6700-7000 per box. Just looking at the probable outcomes and breaking them down by %, you get something like this (I'll assume a buy in price of the level above floor for sake of simplicity)
16% chance of "meh" CC auto, probably break even on the box if you bought around $3-4k
13% chance of solid CC auto (Immaculate or Noir), probably will profit by $2-3k. 50% profit ain't bad!
20% chance of really nice CC auto (Flawless Patch auto or SSP /10 or lower of something else), 300%-600% return
1% chance of hitting a massive home run and 12x to 100x your "investment"

Yes, I get it. 50% chance of a Reese Auto and possibly lose $3k.

However, on top of all the outcomes above, there is a 12.5% chance of hitting a Kaboom or Downtown that you add ON TOP of all the values above. A base will likely recoup the entire box price, a Gold is likely another $20k hit. So amended outcomes look more like:
40% chance of hitting some kind of non-huge Reese auto and not getting bailed out by a Clark Kaboom or Downtown. Sad face.
10% chance of hitting a Reese auto but getting bailed out by either it being a 1/1 or SSP Premium Patch auto, or a Clark Downtown or Kaboom. Probably break even, maybe better. Depends on the Kaboom/Downtown prices.
14% chance of "meh" CC auto as described above. Maybe break even.
11% chance of solid CC auto as described above. Big win.
6% chance of DOUBLE DIP on CC, BIG WIN!
18% chance of really nice CC auto as described above. HUGE WIN!
1% of CC 1/1, life changing win!


** post update ** just wanted to add a couple data points from sales for the first couple days:

Kabooms and Downtowns: I was WAY SHORT on these estimates. I only had $5k for CC, $500 for Angel, and $100 for scrubs. Early sales are basically double that or more.

I was overly conservative on Angel Reese autos, most are selling at double what I projected. Long term they will probably come down

I think between my shorting of the values and grading upside of all encased cards, the model would probably spit out something closer to $10k at this time, but over the long term may regress to something closer to $8k. I think in terms of pricing you'll see a little bit of a dip due to the high volume of supply, but then a stabilization as that initial supply wears off. The big dip will likely be in a few months as the novelty wears off, WNBA season ends, and another wave of graded cards enters the market.

[bluebirds987]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Here's the main portion of my post in a WNBA group (keep in mind it was pre-release so obviously prices may be off from what they are now)

As you all know, each box comes with one auto and one non-auto. There are 1504 numbered autos, and 132 numbered non-autos, which leaves 1372 guaranteed unnumbered non-autos (base Downtown or Kaboom), an average of 57.17 copies of each card.

However, there are also unnumbered Donruss Next Day Autographs, which is the only unknown variable. The highest print run of any other auto is 99, so I modeled things out assuming Next Days to either be around /49 or /99, which would put the total number of boxes at roughly 1600 or 1700 (which means around 70 base copies of each Downtown or Kaboom). Could there be more? Sure, I guess. But when looking at the checklist, it doesn't seem rational for every other card to be premium, short printed cards, and then just a print run of like 1000 Next Days "just cuz". To assume something out of the blue like that seems irrational and therefore is not assumed in this model.

Next, I actually estimated the value of each card in the set. It's by no means perfect, and honestly I feel a bit conservative, as I don't buy Clark or Reese autos and it just felt a bit weird putting such huge dollar signs next to each card. I'll list a couple here as examples with some rationale but don't feel it necessary to list and debate every single value, especially since I am just trying to determine a reasonable ballpark.

"Worst" Clark autos (Contenders /49 $3k, Next Day ~/100 $3k, Elite Pen Pals /49 $2500) - People pay close to $2k for base sticker autos, $3k for numbered sticker autos. I think on-card limited print autos being in the same price range is a reasonable assumption if not too low. FWIW I priced Reese autos from those brands as $100.
Flawless Patch Autos (/25, /20, /15, /10, /5) - $10k / $12.5k / $15k / $20k / $25k. Big money but again, if people are spending as much as $15k on a Mojo sticker auto or $50k+ on a Gold sticker auto, I don't think half that for on-card RPAs from the most prestigious premium brand is out of the question. I have Reese priced at $500-1500.

1/1s: There are 15 Caitlin Clark 1/1s in this product, which if you believe my print run math, means every box has almost a 1% chance of pulling a Clark 1/1 (there are 40 1/1s overall so around a 2.5% chance of pulling any player). I have the Clark 1/1s priced from $50k for brands like Contenders up to $250-500k for the WNBA Logo RPAs. Again, just go check the other sales of her various 1/1s. I guarantee there will be a new record sale for the NT and/or Flawless Logo 1/1s. For the remaining 25 non-Clark 1/1s I priced most at $1k and an overall average of $2k

Anyway, once you add up all the values across the whole set, I came up with a little over $11.3M. Which, divided by 1600-1700, you get an expected value of $6700-7000 per box. Just looking at the probable outcomes and breaking them down by %, you get something like this (I'll assume a buy in price of the level above floor for sake of simplicity)
16% chance of "meh" CC auto, probably break even on the box if you bought around $3-4k
13% chance of solid CC auto (Immaculate or Noir), probably will profit by $2-3k. 50% profit ain't bad!
20% chance of really nice CC auto (Flawless Patch auto or SSP /10 or lower of something else), 300%-600% return
1% chance of hitting a massive home run and 12x to 100x your "investment"

Yes, I get it. 50% chance of a Reese Auto and possibly lose $3k.

However, on top of all the outcomes above, there is a 12.5% chance of hitting a Kaboom or Downtown that you add ON TOP of all the values above. A base will likely recoup the entire box price, a Gold is likely another $20k hit. So amended outcomes look more like:
40% chance of hitting some kind of non-huge Reese auto and not getting bailed out by a Clark Kaboom or Downtown. Sad face.
10% chance of hitting a Reese auto but getting bailed out by either it being a 1/1 or SSP Premium Patch auto, or a Clark Downtown or Kaboom. Probably break even, maybe better. Depends on the Kaboom/Downtown prices.
14% chance of "meh" CC auto as described above. Maybe break even.
11% chance of solid CC auto as described above. Big win.
6% chance of DOUBLE DIP on CC, BIG WIN!
18% chance of really nice CC auto as described above. HUGE WIN!
1% of CC 1/1, life changing win!


** post update ** just wanted to add a couple data points from sales for the first couple days:

Kabooms and Downtowns: I was WAY SHORT on these estimates. I only had $5k for CC, $500 for Angel, and $100 for scrubs. Early sales are basically double that or more.

I was overly conservative on Angel Reese autos, most are selling at double what I projected. Long term they will probably come down

I think between my shorting of the values and grading upside of all encased cards, the model would probably spit out something closer to $10k at this time, but over the long term may regress to something closer to $8k. I think in terms of pricing you'll see a little bit of a dip due to the high volume of supply, but then a stabilization as that initial supply wears off. The big dip will likely be in a few months as the novelty wears off, WNBA season ends, and another wave of graded cards enters the market.

This is excellent! Thanks for posting

[bub838]

Originally Posted by yoyosh

So, what is THE CC rookie(not including high end/Royalty stuff)?
Silver Prizm #22?

I would agree with that.

[ThatGuyPal]

All this analysis reminds me of the Topps Mercury Wemby boxes lol

[PrinceVegeta]

Box sold for $12500 today

[tjforce]

Anyone else notice that she hasn't been very good this year?

39th in PER. Not even top 50 in Win Shares/40.

She's shooting 39% from the field and just 29% from 3. Her Offensive Rating is 94, and Offensive Win Shares are -0.1.

I know she's been hurt and her reach is beyond just her basketball ability... but what happens long term if she just isn't all that great of a basketball player?

[technowando]

Originally Posted by PrinceVegeta

Box sold for $12500 today

Wow, there's another sale for $13k from today as well. Crazy.

[Hess687]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Anyone else notice that she hasn't been very good this year?

39th in PER. Not even top 50 in Win Shares/40.

She's shooting 39% from the field and just 29% from 3. Her Offensive Rating is 94, and Offensive Win Shares are -0.1.

I know she's been hurt and her reach is beyond just her basketball ability... but what happens long term if she just isn't all that great of a basketball player?

Thought about this as well....Her cult following will keep her card prices up even if she somehow gets a career ending injury. Think Bo Jackson in baseball/football.

As for, "What if she doesn't get injured and she just isn't that great of a basketball player?" Well the WNBA won't allow it. They will clean up their referees and call the game a lot tighter if that starts happening. She's too valuable of an asset to let the hard fouls continue.

I read on Yahoo, that she is responsible for 26.5% of league wide attendance, merchandise sales and television in the WNBA. I'll link the article at the end of this. Definitely worth the read.

She is solely responsible for bringing in an additional 34 MILLION dollars into Indiana alone. If the WNBA somehow screws this up, players included, then they deserve to be abolished and cease to exist.

https://www.indystar.com/story/sport...a/84280346007/

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by PrinceVegeta

Box sold for $12500 today

Originally Posted by technowando

Wow, there's another sale for $13k from today as well. Crazy.

Nice flips! $12.5-$13k or a potential Reese auto, pretty easy decision.

[duwal]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Anyone else notice that she hasn't been very good this year?

39th in PER. Not even top 50 in Win Shares/40.

She's shooting 39% from the field and just 29% from 3. Her Offensive Rating is 94, and Offensive Win Shares are -0.1.

I know she's been hurt and her react she h is beyond just her basketball ability... but what happens long term if she just isn't all that great of a basketball player?

Isn't she 2nd in the league in assists and 12th in scoring? Sounds pretty great still

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Anyone else notice that she hasn't been very good this year?

39th in PER. Not even top 50 in Win Shares/40.

She's shooting 39% from the field and just 29% from 3. Her Offensive Rating is 94, and Offensive Win Shares are -0.1.

I know she's been hurt and her reach is beyond just her basketball ability... but what happens long term if she just isn't all that great of a basketball player?

So I’ve hardly watched any wnba yet because I needed a break after the nba season, but I also looked all of this up when this product released and was confused as well. Paige Beuckkers looks significantly better analytically; similar statline but much more efficient? But I don’t know enough about wnba to comment.

[boxbuster7]

where where those sales? Ebay?

[PLB9eight]

Originally Posted by duwal

Isn't she 2nd in the league in assists and 12th in scoring? Sounds pretty great still

It’s like debating with the war guys in baseball who don’t watch the games either.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[boxbuster7]

I'm sorry but if you have watched 1 minute of caitlin clark playing basketball you'll instantly realize that she is in fact very good

what a crazy take lmao

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by PLB9eight

It’s like debating with the war guys in baseball who don’t watch the games either.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Interestingly watched some clips from Moneyball today. Their point was that your eyes lie, and your memory and mind are biased. 2nd in assists and 12th in scoring describes Trae Young, who I’ve watched a lot of. I enjoy watching Trae for entertainment, but I also acknowledge he isn’t an elite talent.

[boxbuster7]

She's missed over half this season

Caitlin Clark is an elite talent

She is the Victor Yamal James of the WNBA

/thread

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

She's missed over half this season

Caitlin Clark is an elite talent

She is the Victor Yamal James of the WNBA

/thread

I believe you! I wasn’t saying she isn’t! I was just making the point that basic statistics aren’t the end-all be-all. I think Haliburton is one of the most impactful players in the league—eye test says this and advanced analytics support it, but his basic stats aren’t overwhelming. Looking forward to watching Caitlin when she’s back.

[Incarnadine]

She's only played 9 games this year and of those games she clearly played injured for at least 4 and maybe 5 of those games and the last 3 games were extremely obvious. The fact she is still averaging 18 points and 9 assists while playing hurt for half the games is actually impressive as hell. Weirdly, it's her rebounds that seem to have suffered most while playing hurt, losing a step seems to put her out of position to gather rebounds. She had just 1, 7, 3 and 2 in her last 4 games.

[technowando]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

where where those sales? Ebay?

Yes, Ebay. I used 130point to see the negotiated price.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by duwal

Isn't she 2nd in the league in assists and 12th in scoring? Sounds pretty great still

Trae Young finished 1st in the league in assists and 14th in scoring. We see what's happened to his market.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I'm sorry but if you have watched 1 minute of caitlin clark playing basketball you'll instantly realize that she is in fact very good

what a crazy take lmao

Real good is fine... but she's being priced like the greatest ever.

I know enough about WBA to know she's not on the same planet as A'Ja Wilson.

A lot of guys making good point on why she's very good and will be a WBA All star for a long time...


My question is just more around what todays prices look like if she's not an absolute GOAT.

[hxcmilkshake]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Trae Young finished 1st in the league in assists and 14th in scoring. We see what's happened to his market.

He just needs some racist, jealous haters

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I'm sorry but if you have watched 1 minute of caitlin clark playing basketball you'll instantly realize that she is in fact very good

what a crazy take lmao

I don't watch WNBA.

Is she really good or is her competition really bad (or both)?

In any case, $12k for a 2-card box of an WNBA "superstar" is still a lot. With that said, I love that such boxes are selling for such amounts because it means that the hobby is full of "big" opportunities.