HOF Pace Tracker

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Mike Trout says hello.

I wouldn't be totally surprised if 3-5 guys playing right now make it. Harper, Machado, Soto, and Devers are in really good shape. Then you've got the youts that haven't really established themselves yet and the mid range guys that could have mid or late career breakouts...not even to mention guys still in the minors that have a very wide range of outcomes.

Yes... I'm not sure Mike Trout gets to 500. He very well may, but he's 122 away and over his last 5 seasons has hit a total of 93.

[pezzicle]

glad this topic has been resurrected

[ironfireman]

I'm looking at Judge putting together another all-time season. Guy is 32 and only played 919 games but if he keeps on pace and plays the whole '24 season he will already be over 50 WAR. He'll only have 1,000 or so hits... and obviously needs a couple more seasons to approach HOF lock numbers but most importantly he'll need 10 seasons to even be eligible for the HOF.
So what is the magic number = 10 seasons. It doesn't seem to be 1,620 games. Kiner only player 1,472 games back when 154 was a season. So maybe a "season" for hitters is the 502 PAs same as needed to qualify for a batting title? So does Judge need 5,020 PAs? He only has 3,989.
Let's say he only gets to 5,000 and for whatever reason his career ends - If he kept his current career pace he'd be around 1,200 hits 360 HR and 58 WAR and let's add for the sake of a fun arguement that he finishes the year and wins another MVP and the Yankees win it all... Is Judge a HOFer? Does MLB make an exception? Is 5,020 PAs even the qualifier (I have no idea).

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I'm looking at Judge putting together another all-time season. Guy is 32 and only played 919 games but if he keeps on pace and plays the whole '24 season he will already be over 50 WAR. He'll only have 1,000 or so hits... and obviously needs a couple more seasons to approach HOF lock numbers but most importantly he'll need 10 seasons to even be eligible for the HOF.
So what is the magic number = 10 seasons. It doesn't seem to be 1,620 games. Kiner only player 1,472 games back when 154 was a season. So maybe a "season" for hitters is the 502 PAs same as needed to qualify for a batting title? So does Judge need 5,020 PAs? He only has 3,989.
Let's say he only gets to 5,000 and for whatever reason his career ends - If he kept his current career pace he'd be around 1,200 hits 360 HR and 58 WAR and let's add for the sake of a fun arguement that he finishes the year and wins another MVP and the Yankees win it all... Is Judge a HOFer? Does MLB make an exception? Is 5,020 PAs even the qualifier (I have no idea).

From what I see, there are no stat minimums. Judge would have meet these requirements just like everyone else. If he does, then the voters will analyze what he did during that 10 year career. From what I’ve seen, if he doesn’t reach 10 years, he’s not eligible, no matter how many records or single season greatness he achieves.
He could hit 60 HR 4 years in a row but if he doesn’t play in 10 seasons he doesn’t qualify.

3. Eligible Candidates -- Candidates to be eligible must meet the following requirements:

A. A baseball player must have been active as a player in the Major Leagues at some time during a period beginning fifteen (15) years before and ending five (5) years prior to election.

B. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3(A).

C. Player shall have ceased to be an active player in the Major Leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election but may be otherwise connected with baseball.

D. In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.

E. Any player on Baseball's ineligible list shall not be an eligible candidate


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[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

From what I see, there are no stat minimums. Judge would have meet these requirements just like everyone else. If he does, then the voters will analyze what he did during that 10 year career. From what I’ve seen, if he doesn’t reach 10 years, he’s not eligible, no matter how many records or single season greatness he achieves.
He could hit 60 HR 4 years in a row but if he doesn’t play in 10 seasons he doesn’t qualify.

3. Eligible Candidates -- Candidates to be eligible must meet the following requirements:

A. A baseball player must have been active as a player in the Major Leagues at some time during a period beginning fifteen (15) years before and ending five (5) years prior to election.

B. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3(A).

C. Player shall have ceased to be an active player in the Major Leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election but may be otherwise connected with baseball.

D. In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.

E. Any player on Baseball's ineligible list shall not be an eligible candidate

I dug around a little more and it looks like it's just a 10 seasons rule. So if a player played in any part of 10 seasons they are eligable. A player doesn't need 10 years of service time, just appear in 10 seasons. Addie Joss only played in 9 years, but died of menigitis in Spring Training of his 10th. Not sure if they made an exception, counted Spring Training or what, but the veterans that voted him in 67 yrs after his death. Dizzy Dean played 12 years but only pitched once in 3 of those seasons.

[tazdmb]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I dug around a little more and it looks like it's just a 10 seasons rule. So if a player played in any part of 10 seasons they are eligable. A player doesn't need 10 years of service time, just appear in 10 seasons. Addie Joss only played in 9 years, but died of menigitis in Spring Training of his 10th. Not sure if they made an exception, counted Spring Training or what, but the veterans that voted him in 67 yrs after his death. Dizzy Dean played 12 years but only pitched once in 3 of those seasons.

Yes, the veterans committee made a special one-time exception for Addie Joss.

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I dug around a little more and it looks like it's just a 10 seasons rule. So if a player played in any part of 10 seasons they are eligable. A player doesn't need 10 years of service time, just appear in 10 seasons. Addie Joss only played in 9 years, but died of menigitis in Spring Training of his 10th. Not sure if they made an exception, counted Spring Training or what, but the veterans that voted him in 67 yrs after his death. Dizzy Dean played 12 years but only pitched once in 3 of those seasons.

Yes, part of 10 seasons.


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[mfw13]

For me, the whole playing time qualification comes much more into play with relief pitchers than hitters. Somebody upthread noted that Ralph Kiner only played in 1472 games, but he had 6256 plate appearances, which is more than 10 years worth.

I'd be strongly in favor of a minimum 1620 innings pitcher qualification (i.e. 162 IP for 10 seasons).

[stevenab87]

Originally Posted by mfw13

For me, the whole playing time qualification comes much more into play with relief pitchers than hitters. Somebody upthread noted that Ralph Kiner only played in 1472 games, but he had 6256 plate appearances, which is more than 10 years worth.

I'd be strongly in favor of a minimum 1620 innings pitcher qualification (i.e. 162 IP for 10 seasons).

Kick Mariano out of the HOF!

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by stevenab87

Kick Mariano out of the HOF!

I've been on the record here for a long time as believing that modern closers do not belong in the HOF due to the fact that they did not pitch enough innings to meaningfully impact their team's success (hence their low WAR totals).

You can make a case for some of the early guys like Fingers and Gossage who routinely pitched multiple innings per appearance, but I've got zero sympathy for the guys who entered every game at the start of 9th with the bases empty and rarely pitched more than one inning.

[SethMurphy]

Rivera pitched in 1283.2 innings, over 1,115 games so he technically averaged over 1 IP per appearance and has the highest ERA+ of all-time (205). Rivera is a no-doubt hall of famer in any sense of the word. He was a consistently elite closer for 17 years, up until 43 years old and still had a 2.11 ERA in his final season, saving 44 games.

Closers have a nearly 50% turnover season to season, with teams opting for committee approach now more and more. Not many relievers can maintain that level of success for 17 years, let alone the 10 to qualify for eligibility.

Sorry but I don't take someone saying Rivera doesn't belong lightly.

[nmh20]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I've been on the record here for a long time as believing that modern closers do not belong in the HOF due to the fact that they did not pitch enough innings to meaningfully impact their team's success (hence their low WAR totals).

You can make a case for some of the early guys like Fingers and Gossage who routinely pitched multiple innings per appearance, but I've got zero sympathy for the guys who entered every game at the start of 9th with the bases empty and rarely pitched more than one inning.

Any arbitrary pitching standard that has Mariano Rivera well below the HOF threshold is, frankly, indefensible. I’m the furthest thing from a Yankees fan but the idea that Mariano Rivera didn’t “meaningfully impact his team’s success” is CRAZY

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by nmh20

Any arbitrary pitching standard that has Mariano Rivera well below the HOF threshold is, frankly, indefensible. I’m the furthest thing from a Yankees fan but the idea that Mariano Rivera didn’t “meaningfully impact his team’s success” is CRAZY

There are studies out there which show how overrated 1-inning closers are and what a meaningless statistic saves are.

Three-run and two-run saves are converted by ANY pitcher at a rate of 95%+.

Even one-run saves are converted by average pitchers at a rate of about 80%, and a by top closers at rate of roughly 90%.

The truth is that roughly 90-95% of all saves by closers would also be saved by Joe Anonymous.

Nothing personal against Mo....he was the best ever at a largely meaningless job. But there's a reason why those 652 saves were only worth 56.3 bWAR....

[NYBBFAN]

never mind.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Even one-run saves are converted by average pitchers at a rate of about 80%, and a by top closers at rate of roughly 90%.

So 10% difference? Like the 10% differnce between a .200 hitter and a .300 hitter?!

So an elite guy gets maybe 50-60 chances = 5-6 win difference between the average guy? Luckily playoffs spots are always decided by way more than 5-6 wins. lol

[JohnnyAppleseed]

Originally Posted by mfw13

There are studies out there which show how overrated 1-inning closers are and what a meaningless statistic saves are.

Three-run and two-run saves are converted by ANY pitcher at a rate of 95%+.

Even one-run saves are converted by average pitchers at a rate of about 80%, and a by top closers at rate of roughly 90%.

The truth is that roughly 90-95% of all saves by closers would also be saved by Joe Anonymous.

Nothing personal against Mo....he was the best ever at a largely meaningless job. But there's a reason why those 652 saves were only worth 56.3 bWAR....

Shouldn't put umpires or GMs or owners in the HOF either. Meaningless jobs that can be done by anyone. They don't even have WAR.

[atk825]

The second Aaron Judge suits up next season for a single game, he's a no brainer HOFer.

[SethMurphy]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

So 10% difference? Like the 10% differnce between a .200 hitter and a .300 hitter?!

So an elite guy gets maybe 50-60 chances = 5-6 win difference between the average guy? Luckily playoffs spots are always decided by way more than 5-6 wins. lol

You do realize the difference between .200 and .300 isn't 10% right?

A 10% increase on a .200 hitter would be (.200 x 1.10) .220

[ironfireman]

[QUOTE=SethMurphy;19523435]You do realize the difference between .200 and .300 isn't 10% right?

.200 is 20% of 1.000 = 2 hit per 10 ABs
.300 is 30% of 1.000 = 3 hits per 10 ABs
The difference between a .200 hitter and a .300 hitter is 10%

[UMich92]

[QUOTE=ironfireman;19523452]

Originally Posted by SethMurphy

You do realize the difference between .200 and .300 isn't 10% right?

.200 is 20% of 1.000 = 2 hit per 10 ABs
.300 is 30% of 1.000 = 3 hits per 10 ABs
The difference between a .200 hitter and a .300 hitter is 10%

Sure. The "difference" is 10% but a .300 hitter is getting 50% more hits than a .200.

[caflisch78]

Originally Posted by atk825

The second Aaron Judge suits up next season for a single game, he's a no brainer HOFer.

I think no brainer is a stretch. He still needs counting numbers and seasons.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by caflisch78

I think no brainer is a stretch. He still needs counting numbers and seasons.

I also wouldn't call him a no-brainer but definitely elevated or at the same level as every other hitter of his generation not named Trout. Trout may be the only one, at this point, who could've retired at 10 years and made the HOF. Mookie would have been close if he retired this year but I think it would have to be related to a career ending injury. Ohtani could be the next for sure though.

[sauceboy]

Sorry, but I find it very hard to take anyone who says Mo doesn't belong in the HOF seriously. He was a unanimous decision by the BBWAA for good reason.

Judge is by no means a lock right now, but he is well on his way to getting in there.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I also wouldn't call him a no-brainer but definitely elevated or at the same level as every other hitter of his generation not named Trout. Trout may be the only one, at this point, who could've retired at 10 years and made the HOF. Mookie would have been close if he retired this year but I think it would have to be related to a career ending injury. Ohtani could be the next for sure though.

He's about to have his 3rd 50 HR season. He's the only non-steroid full season 200 OPS+ seasons this century. I mean it will help to accumulate. And he has 8 years left after this year to do it, but once Jim Rice gets in, there's nothing he has that Aaron Judge hasn't done.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by atk825

He's about to have his 3rd 50 HR season. He's the only non-steroid full season 200 OPS+ seasons this century. I mean it will help to accumulate. And he has 8 years left after this year to do it, but once Jim Rice gets in, there's nothing he has that Aaron Judge hasn't done.

Longevity. Rice has more than 2.5x as many hits.
944 to 2452
Counting stats still matter. No one would question Judge as being a better player with a much higher peak. Rice was very good for a very long time and that is usually what is rewarded come ballot time