Topps Project 2020 is the worst product since 1991 Fleer

[gmoney328]

Originally Posted by Spunky245

The best part of this thread is that, by the time you post a reply to someone else’s comment, there’s already ten pages of new content and your comment is now irrelevant.

This is very true. Warp speed.

[TheWrightStuff]

I know if I was the guy that spent 20K and had the stack of cards worth over 1 million, I would sell right now, no question and be happy if the next guy made some money on what I sold.

[Snakeonia]

Originally Posted by JRX

Bitcoin sounded expensive at 100, then 600, then 2k, then 13k. Very similar to Covid infection curves, exponential growth is slow then fast. We have no idea what the limit is, but for the low print runs, it could be very high, eventually you'll run out of buyers. Bitcoin is still almost 9k, it dropped a lot from its highs, but if you got in early you still made a lot.

Was just gonna say my modeling of covid was a lot like the pr of topps 2020

This is not my model due to obligations at work today but eerily similar


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[thenightman]

Originally Posted by DiegsHobby

Don't mean to mention another line of products but, man... I just want to get rid of my 5 boxes of Bowman 1st Edition and buy up Project 2020.

ROI king

What are you doing? Crack those MF'ers open!

[Bruvydsb]

Pretty hard to lock in profits with not even one single card yet in hand

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by badlarrys

Not a big pre-seller here, but pre-sold 5 Ermsy Gooden Auto /99s, all under $200.

Now going for $700 last time I checked.

Staying true to my 100% feedback

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[JRX]

Originally Posted by Snakeonia

Was just gonna say my modeling of covid was a lot like the pr of topps 2020

This is not my model due to obligations at work today but eerily similar


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Also the number of posts in this thread

[doubledribble]

Originally Posted by JRX

Bitcoin sounded expensive at 100, then 600, then 2k, then 13k. Very similar to Covid infection curves, exponential growth is slow then fast. We have no idea what the limit is, but for the low print runs, it could be very high, eventually you'll run out of buyers. Bitcoin is still almost 9k, it dropped a lot from its highs, but if you got in early you still made a lot.

You won't be able to flip a $20 card for $1000s moving forward but can you turn $20 into $100 for the next few releases? Probably. Not bad at volume.

[RyanSwinger]

ITS SIMPLE!! Anything below 3k PR BUY, above 35k PR BUYER BEWARE

In between there is anyone's guess

[Soxfanguy]

Originally Posted by doubledribble

You won't be able to flip a $20 card for $1000s moving forward but can you turn $20 into $100 for the next few releases? Probably. Not bad at volume.

Hell, if I can turn 20 bucks into 40-50 bucks I’d be happy

[JRX]

Houdini doing sales

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by JRX

Bitcoin sounded expensive at 100, then 600, then 2k, then 13k. Very similar to Covid infection curves, exponential growth is slow then fast. We have no idea what the limit is, but for the low print runs, it could be very high, eventually you'll run out of buyers. Bitcoin is still almost 9k, it dropped a lot from its highs, but if you got in early you still made a lot.

You will not run out of buyers. The amount of buyers may ebb and flow, but they're not going to disappear. These cards, particularly the first 80, or so, are unique and rare. There will always be people in search of them.

[BurnerNotify]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

Ted Williams JK5 (even at a hefty price) should be acquired.

Todays Ted, tomorrow's Mariano Rivera by JK5- its about to surge

I am not pumping, just waiting on one in the mail biting my nails

I just discovered that I like JK5 a lot. It was expensive to catch up but now I’m good buying Topps direct. Really like the Ichiro and think it and the Williams have a chance to be 2k cards eventually.

[mocean]

Haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, (not surprising with the pace of this thread) thoughts on the Shore Mikkeller card? Evidently he included them with his autos from his site and they are the equivalent to Saladeens moneybear (made by Topps, #/1000)?

[thenightman]

Originally Posted by JRX

Houdini doing sales

Where?

[JRX]

Better to buy from Houdini or direct from topps, higher odds of hitting a gold from him

[metsandweezer]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

Hell, if I can turn 20 bucks into 40-50 bucks I’d be happy

That’s my thought process as well.

[DR Murph]

Originally Posted by BurnerNotify

I just discovered that I like JK5 a lot. It was expensive to catch up but now I’m good buying Topps direct. Really like the Ichiro and think it and the Williams have a chance to be 2k cards eventually.

The “Mando” Clemente is awesome!

[JRX]

Originally Posted by thenightman

Where?

I'm on his email list, he's selling all 10 for the week

[gmoney328]

The key to this for me, and I do hope others are showing some restraint as well, is not to overextend myself in any way. Using small profits to buy newer releases. Enjoy these cards for what they are. They are AWESOME to look at.

There's a saying I used to tell my clients when I was in the equity markets business. "No profit is a bad profit."

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by JRX

Bitcoin sounded expensive at 100, then 600, then 2k, then 13k. Very similar to Covid infection curves, exponential growth is slow then fast. We have no idea what the limit is, but for the low print runs, it could be very high, eventually you'll run out of buyers. Bitcoin is still almost 9k, it dropped a lot from its highs, but if you got in early you still made a lot.

This is wholly irrational.

You're comparing a sports card which has no functionality to an infectious disease and a currency alternative.

We have a general idea of the worth of a sports card, because they're generally comparable based on autograph status/rookie card status/underlying player ability and a bunch of other variables. As such, we can have a pretty good idea of what a card #'d to xxxx, with varying qualities, has over time.

Bitcoin took off because it was viewed as not only a hedge, but as a possible alternative to currencies, particularly in developing nations which lacked stable currency. This speculation that Bitcoin would one day be viewed as an alternative to a USD is what drove the price to double, and then fall, almost over night. (Of course, the problem with Bitcoin is the catch-22 created when the volatility drives its speculation, but the entire point of having a currency alternative is that it lacks volatility).

It's a reprint. It's a nice looking card, but even at sub-3,000 level print runs, these are going to be exceedingly easy to find in a week, or in twenty years.

[MMantle]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

This is a fascinating experience to an outsider.

The cards don't hold any allure to me--I don't care about hiphop/urban/Instagram artists, so the crossover for what, at the end of the day, is a card with a minimum print run of 1,000, doesn't hold any interest to me. It's an interesting idea, but not something I feel compelled to get involved in.

In theory, a card that is available to anyone who wishes to purchase it at a set price would never vary much from the set price--maybe it appreciates slowly over time, or dips due to lack of interest (the latter of which is the general case in cards--see Topps Living Set).

Instead, we are seeing this perception of guaranteed exponential returns, where profits on any card seem to be assured. The response to any inquiry is "buy, don't ask questions, buy more."

We are experiencing a phenomenon where this product is behaving unlike any other one I've ever seen in sports collecting.

It scares the crap out of me.

How popular do we expect these cards to be? It seems people were lukewarm to the initial idea, and are piling in speculating on the exponential growth, rather than the underlying card (which, at the end of the day, is a reprint card that is rapidly approaching a 35,000 print run).

Is their one historical example of an immediate run-up of of a product to 150x its initially value ($20 to $3,000) in such a short amount of time, in any market?

Man, I hope people are locking in profits without the threat of chargebacks.

All I can do is think of this as a small scale dot com bubble. This set has blown past any of the traditional metrics in the hobby. This set is long past the concept of rationality. 50% price increase overnight? That doesn't happen to any prospect, commodity, or stock.

I'm admittedly pessimistic about this (and I even bought a couple of the cards to see what the hype is about, because I'd like to have them in hand), and assume that the floor of these cards, when all the dust settles, is somewhere around $8-10 each, so a $20 buy-in has fairly low downside.

Right now, this market is behaving completely irrationally, and I cannot find a single recorded instance where such a run-up has not collapsed overnight.

I see people in this thread speculating on what they're going to buy with their profits... on cards that they don't have have in hand yet.

I'm just a random guy on the Internet... but man, this is putting people in a position where they can get burned just as easily as they realized 1,000% gains in a week. I hope they lock in profits. I see a very small number of people who do not have unhinged optimism and perceived certainty of the value of these cards. It scares the crap out of me.

Agreed! I stopped buying directly from topps when their website was constantly messing up. Just isn't worth the effort. Found some good sellers who sell singles cheap on ebay that I know over the years that have shipped cards just for my PC. So I'll keep buying those. Originally I was going for 2 sets of Trouts figuring as a whole set it would be worth something when done. But now seeing how the series is.. when this set is done the prices will fall. All hype and people seeing 1 sale on ebay for X-Dollar amount making claim that's how the market value goes.. which isn't the case. It really is just hype. Later people will be like ah why did I pay 500 dollars for a reprint in a snap case with a little sticker?

[JRX]

I'll stick with topps for this week, but if Houdini does this going forward, I might go through him

[JRX]

Originally Posted by JRX

I'll stick with topps for this week, but if Houdini does this going forward, I might go through him

Actually he's cheaper than my topps order

[DStars45]

Got my first cards in hand! They look even better in person. Grabbed these Saturday pretty cheap so extremely pleased with the quick shipping.




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