**The Perennial JUAN SOTO Thread!**

[ThoseBackPages]

you are driving up your cost per card! LOL

[Some Guy]

Originally Posted by VintageTraderNC

Picked up another PSA 10 blue. New family pic!



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Your mail day

My mail day. My Pee pee feels very small now




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[Snakeonia]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

you are driving up your cost per card! LOL

Got the market cornered lol I need one someday we will talk


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[daytrader]

I thought this one was pretty cool. I have the others that came in the pack that had the same error. I have no idea what it may be worth because I have never seen one before.

Hope the attachment worked. First time I have posted a photo.

[boston12]

Originally Posted by daytrader

I thought this one was pretty cool. I have the others that came in the pack that had the same error. I have no idea what it may be worth because I have never seen one before.

Hope the attachment worked. First time I have posted a photo.

Not sure; never seen the topps logo on that side. Although I would have never noticed that to be honest.

[PFF100]

Originally Posted by VintageTraderNC

Picked up another PSA 10 blue. New family pic!



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Wow lol


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[PFF100]

Originally Posted by daytrader

I thought this one was pretty cool. I have the others that came in the pack that had the same error. I have no idea what it may be worth because I have never seen one before.

Hope the attachment worked. First time I have posted a photo.

TBP could probably shed some light on this


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[soey10]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

Not a high dollar RC but couldn’t resist the urge to do a sketch card of Soto. I’m going to be set up at a collectors show April 24 in Sulphur La. I haven’t done sketches in a while so why not start with Juan?



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Awesome sketch of an awesome player. How long does something like this take you to do?


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[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by epatmythes

PSA has graded a total of 149,290 cards from the 1989 Upper Deck baseball set. 79,759 of those (over 50%) have been Ken Griffey Jr. rookies. Even with that, the Kid has a ridiculously low Gem Rate, with only 3,917 PSA 10's in existence.

The current era king, the 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout has a PSA 10 population of 5,287. A much higher Gem Rate than the Kid, and a hefty population in comparison... it has no problem being a $4-5K card.

Now, you have the Soto's... today, sitting at PSA 10 populations of 9,111 on the Chrome Update and 16,557 on the Topps Update. On the surface, those are staggeringly high population numbers. Conversely though, the Ohtani/Acuna/Soto/Torres hype train of the 2018 season was truly the turning point in the hobby where new release wax was being busted solely to acquire cards with the intention to grade them.

No, months or years of the card sitting in a box, in pages, in a top loader, or mag, or (God forbid) a screw down. No, I wonder if I have any of these that might be gradable now that I see how much the gem's are selling for... let me dig through my closet!

These cards were straight from pack, to sleeve, to card saver... and off to grading!

Given all that... I truly believe there is still a ton of room for price growth with the Soto's in the coming months and years. The populations don't help the supply side economics... but with continued success/dominance and fans/collectors wanting these cards... price will go up.

I put there ceiling, based just on the high pop fact, at market with a PSA 9 Trout Update. That card is a pretty consistent seller around $1800.

I've been collecting Trout since day 1. At times, I thought the card would never seen $500 in a 10. Then I was amazed and couldn't believe it would ever see $1000. At some point, I probably also recall believing the absolute ceiling for that card would be $2500. Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong time and time again.

I'm more surprised the Soto's aren't $1K already... then I will be if they aren't pushing $1500 next year, assuming another stellar season!

I appreciate your Trout perspective, especially since I wasn't active in the hobby back in 2011. Someone much, much smarter than myself could probably come up with an equation on Flagship RCs.

I think sometimes (or perhaps most?) we get too tied up with the specifics surrounding the card and fail to step back and see the bigger picture with the demand. That's almost certainly due to the fact that demand is extraordinarily difficult to measure or normalize.

But look at the '52 Mantle. We're far enough away from that card's original demand strike that we can look back upon it and see a logical, natural group of movements in price.

The high-grade cards, as the pop reports plateaus, establish large premiums. During this time, much of the lesser-conditioned examples stay the same. Eventually, the demand is so great that previous buyers at higher grades get priced out and they become new buyers at lesser conditions. Those lesser-conditioned cards now see a rise in price with the addition of new buyers and this process continues down the line.

Eventually, we get to the point where there are enough people that don't care what grade the card is in at all and just simply want to own ANY copy of the card that they can. We've seen this happen to a lot of cards over the last five years: '39 PB Williams, '54 Topps Aaron, '51 Mays and Mantle, etc.

For these cards, condition stopped mattering for most buyers. They resigned themselves to a lower grade a long time ago and are now just hunting for the best eye appeal they can get their hands on in the cheapest technical grade they can afford.

This is all a long way of saying every player and/or every card has a demand potential in it. At some point, people are going to start SEARCHING FOR lower grade '11 US175s. They're going to resign themselves to the fact that they may not even be in the market for a PSA 8. Then they think, "Fine, I'll find a nice looking PSA 6 and just be happy that I own a copy."

Is 15,000 too large of a pop report? I think for most people the answer would be "yes." However, look at this thread. Look at any of the threads here of the popular players that most collectors collect. FFS, someone just posted like 15 or 20 Blue /150 1st BCAs. Part of being a modern collector appears to be collecting more of what you already own when there isn't something you don't own that you want available.

BECAUSE COLLECTORS ARE GOING TO SPEND THEIR MONEY ON THEIR COLLECTION.

Very few, if any, take their monthly budget and just go "Well, I didn't see anything that I don't already have so I guess I'll roll this over to next month."

HELL NO. Because part of being a modern day collector is the social aspect of sharing your collection, sharing the experience of watching a specific player play, and sharing in the joy when both things collide to bring success to the group. You didn't see anything new? Guess I'll pick up another PSA 10 Refractor because that card is highly undervalued and the folks in the thread will appreciate the pick up as much as I will.

That's why we're all here. The hobby is extremely democratic and inclusive these days. That guy just posted a Clear /10 of the player's RC? Rad. Everyone's going to attaboy him. But the cool thing is that he's also going to appreciate the next person that posts a Gold /2020 of that same card. For many, the social aspect to collecting today is just as important as buying your cards.

So what are the ceilings on cards with pops higher than we've ever seen before? I think it's safe to say that whatever we think they are, they can possibly be higher. Personally, I prefer true rarity over condition rarity and would rather put my eggs in those baskets but I also sold my US250s and US300s WAY too early so I'm probably not the best person to take advice from.

It's clear though that part of the reason those pops are so high is because we're also witnessing a demand we've never seen before.

Arthur

[BosPats1980]

I like it. I have also always like the rare error RC. I grew up when the Frank Thomas NNOF was a unicorn so anytime you see a chance to get something different that's always what I think of. Send it into BGS

Originally Posted by daytrader

I thought this one was pretty cool. I have the others that came in the pack that had the same error. I have no idea what it may be worth because I have never seen one before.

Hope the attachment worked. First time I have posted a photo.

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by soey10

Awesome sketch of an awesome player. How long does something like this take you to do?


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Thank you. I’ve been impressed with Soto and his discipline as a hitter for a while. I also love his personality even though some think it’s arrogance. Took me two hours to do this one.


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[daytrader]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

I like it. I have also always like the rare error RC. I grew up when the Frank Thomas NNOF was a unicorn so anytime you see a chance to get something different that's always what I think of. Send it into BGS

Yours are awesome!! I have never graded a card before. I am always afraid of a bad grade and will have wasted my money. But since there are so few of these if not anymore, maybe, I will have it graded. I will send it to BGS. Someone already told me that PSA would not grade it. Thanks, for the heads up.

It was really weird because I had a small stack of US300's and this one was off.

Thanks for you input.

[Snakeonia]

Nats 15 hits today
Soto 0

Dark days are here again


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[ThoseBackPages]

[NoWhammys2021]

Originally Posted by daytrader

Yours are awesome!! I have never graded a card before. I am always afraid of a bad grade and will have wasted my money. But since there are so few of these if not anymore, maybe, I will have it graded. I will send it to BGS. Someone already told me that PSA would not grade it. Thanks, for the heads up.

It was really weird because I had a small stack of US300's and this one was off.

Thanks for you input.

Mutation !!!!






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[daytrader]

Originally Posted by NoWhammys2021

Mutation !!!!






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I'll trade you.

[ThoseBackPages]

SMOKE MONSTER!

[BosPats1980]

Glad to pick up this super clean copy of the 2018 Contenders Red #/99 RC!! Iconic card design (In football anyways) of an Iconic Player

[BAHoopla]

2019 PSA 10 Sapphire down $909....

Don’t have one but surprised by the quick fall here

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by VintageTraderNC

Picked up another PSA 10 blue. New family pic!



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Holy Cr*p..... I think you have all of them!

[noaskiecards]

Originally Posted by BAHoopla

2019 PSA 10 Sapphire down $909....



Don’t have one but surprised by the quick fall here

Buy the dip imo
People are focused on acuna so good time to buy soto
We aren't even 10 percent into the season

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[The_Reverend]

FINE 9 of PSA 10

[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I appreciate your Trout perspective, especially since I wasn't active in the hobby back in 2011. Someone much, much smarter than myself could probably come up with an equation on Flagship RCs.

I think sometimes (or perhaps most?) we get too tied up with the specifics surrounding the card and fail to step back and see the bigger picture with the demand. That's almost certainly due to the fact that demand is extraordinarily difficult to measure or normalize.

But look at the '52 Mantle. We're far enough away from that card's original demand strike that we can look back upon it and see a logical, natural group of movements in price.

The high-grade cards, as the pop reports plateaus, establish large premiums. During this time, much of the lesser-conditioned examples stay the same. Eventually, the demand is so great that previous buyers at higher grades get priced out and they become new buyers at lesser conditions. Those lesser-conditioned cards now see a rise in price with the addition of new buyers and this process continues down the line.

Eventually, we get to the point where there are enough people that don't care what grade the card is in at all and just simply want to own ANY copy of the card that they can. We've seen this happen to a lot of cards over the last five years: '39 PB Williams, '54 Topps Aaron, '51 Mays and Mantle, etc.

For these cards, condition stopped mattering for most buyers. They resigned themselves to a lower grade a long time ago and are now just hunting for the best eye appeal they can get their hands on in the cheapest technical grade they can afford.

This is all a long way of saying every player and/or every card has a demand potential in it. At some point, people are going to start SEARCHING FOR lower grade '11 US175s. They're going to resign themselves to the fact that they may not even be in the market for a PSA 8. Then they think, "Fine, I'll find a nice looking PSA 6 and just be happy that I own a copy."

Is 15,000 too large of a pop report? I think for most people the answer would be "yes." However, look at this thread. Look at any of the threads here of the popular players that most collectors collect. FFS, someone just posted like 15 or 20 Blue /150 1st BCAs. Part of being a modern collector appears to be collecting more of what you already own when there isn't something you don't own that you want available.

BECAUSE COLLECTORS ARE GOING TO SPEND THEIR MONEY ON THEIR COLLECTION.

Very few, if any, take their monthly budget and just go "Well, I didn't see anything that I don't already have so I guess I'll roll this over to next month."

HELL NO. Because part of being a modern day collector is the social aspect of sharing your collection, sharing the experience of watching a specific player play, and sharing in the joy when both things collide to bring success to the group. You didn't see anything new? Guess I'll pick up another PSA 10 Refractor because that card is highly undervalued and the folks in the thread will appreciate the pick up as much as I will.

That's why we're all here. The hobby is extremely democratic and inclusive these days. That guy just posted a Clear /10 of the player's RC? Rad. Everyone's going to attaboy him. But the cool thing is that he's also going to appreciate the next person that posts a Gold /2020 of that same card. For many, the social aspect to collecting today is just as important as buying your cards.

So what are the ceilings on cards with pops higher than we've ever seen before? I think it's safe to say that whatever we think they are, they can possibly be higher. Personally, I prefer true rarity over condition rarity and would rather put my eggs in those baskets but I also sold my US250s and US300s WAY too early so I'm probably not the best person to take advice from.

It's clear though that part of the reason those pops are so high is because we're also witnessing a demand we've never seen before.

Arthur

Hi Arthur and Epatmythes!

Amazing posts and love the insight! Learned a couple things. Great analysis on data and also the social aspect combined.

[Neal]

US300 Gold sold for 3400 ... PSA 10 .... PWCC even

Tanking

[messier2]

Originally Posted by NoWhammys2021

Mutation !!!!






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Whoa! A rare "smokey" rainbow variation!