Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Canada? Who pays 53%?

Are you talking about Canada, California?

Top marginal federal rate: 37%
Obamacare tax: 3.8%
Self Employment tax (Medicare): 2.9%
California State Tax: 9.3% (or more)

That adds up to 53% for the bottom of the top bracket, with the CA state tax maxing out 12.3%.

[theshowandme]

Is the hobby dead?

[pewe]

Originally Posted by notfast

Cash will always be king at card shows.

For people who like to earn less?


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Are you talking about Canada, California?

Top marginal federal rate: 37%
Obamacare tax: 3.8%
Self Employment tax (Medicare): 2.9%
California State Tax: 9.3% (or more)

That adds up to 53% for the bottom of the top bracket, with the CA state tax maxing out 12.3%.

Don’t forget SF city tax

Or you could do the same for NY adding Manhattan tax

Now, if it’s long term collectable, then the top rate is 28%, I believe…


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[solt0131]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Is the hobby dead?

Not even close. There are tons of buyers and collectors out there. It just doesn't have the flippers as much now. I think we already hit the low point and things will continue to get better from here.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Not even close. There are tons of buyers and collectors out there. It just doesn't have the flippers as much now. I think we already hit the low point and things will continue to get better from here.

For anyone sticking around, wouldn't it be better for things to keep rolling off???

I mean, feels like MSRP wax probably has at least 50% drop. And we still have first year players, like JRod, demanding a 2x premium vs. similar hot players back in 2018 at the same point of their career (see Acuna as a good example).

And that was already up A LOT from the half decade earlier

For all us still excited to participate long term, it feels like it would be a good thing if we got back to more historic levels.

[JoeAdam]

Originally Posted by pewe

For anyone sticking around, wouldn't it be better for things to keep rolling off???

I mean, feels like MSRP wax probably has at least 50% drop. And we still have first year players, like JRod, demanding a 2x premium vs. similar hot players back in 2018 at the same point of their career (see Acuna as a good example).

And that was already up A LOT from the half decade earlier

For all us still excited to participate long term, it feels like it would be a good thing if we got back to more historic levels.

I’m taking a break in 2023. I’ll monitor my watchlists in case a rare item pops up, but I think it’s best to just save up and buy the things I want once prices drop further.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by JoeAdam

I’m taking a break in 2023. I’ll monitor my watchlists in case a rare item pops up, but I think it’s best to just save up and buy the things I want once prices drop further.

Yep... and technically we haven't really seen a pullback in consumer spending, yet... so for anyone who thinks 2023 will have a real recession (or even just a soft landing with slowing spending), there is still a lot of overhang downside risk possible

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by pewe

Don’t forget SF city tax

Or you could do the same for NY adding Manhattan tax

Now, if it’s long term collectable, then the top rate is 28%, I believe…


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Wait a minute. There are cities that charge income tax on top of their sales tax? That's nuts.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Wait a minute. There are cities that charge income tax on top of their sales tax? That's nuts.

Heck, our school district now has an income tax on top of the property tax. Everyone wants in on that income.

[Neal]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Is the hobby dead?

No. Very different than 18 months ago, give or take? Absolutely. Most of the late 2020/early 21 prices will never be seen again. And most of that, not even 20% of what it was

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[JoeAdam]

On the plus side, you can still buy directly from Topps and everything doesn’t sell out in 5 seconds. I look forward to the hobby returning to normal.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Neal

No. Very different than 18 months ago, give or take? Absolutely. Most of the late 2020/early 21 prices will never be seen again. And most of that, not even 20% of what it was

Are you kidding?! Just 10-11 months ago all the moon bois here kept swearing no downturn whatsoever was imminent and yelling and talking down at anyone who said otherwise.

Some of these same moon bois continue to post here at least once every wakening hour, just like they have been for the last several years at least. Should pull up some of these threads…

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by JoeAdam

On the plus side, you can still buy directly from Topps and everything doesn’t sell out in 5 seconds. I look forward to the hobby returning to normal.

If Topps charged these types of prices over the last 3 years almost nothing would have sold out quick or been tough to get. It 100% has to do with the prices they are charging compared to what the market wants to buy them at. The hobby will not be returning to normal anytime soon. Unless you consider paying multiples of prices from 2-3 years ago with way less demand and probably above market value returning to normal.

[cholodolo]

A couple observations from the show I attended last weekend:

-The vast majority of those occupying tables and attempting to sell cards were individuals selling 8-12 cards from a small case. A couple tables full of wax that nobody touched (while I was there) other than a few Topps Chrome Blasters.

- Not many baseball cards -- sure, it's the off-season, but basketball and football cards can only take you so far given the awful nature of those markets the past 12 months.

- If you are intending to conduct business, and insist on being treated as one conducting business, dress like it. Slovenly souls. Wear a clean shirt and actual shoes. Mix in a water between Monster Energy Drinks and vape pulls.

- Also helps to greet potential customers (a "good morning" would suffice) and not scowl at them as you hope they take one of the 6 Jason Dominguez Bowman's you've been keeping warm.

- I wouldn't usually bring cards to a show, but it was a local one and my entire collection is Angels cards. Sold 2 cards, gave the two guys running their own shop in Anaheim a deal on them.

- Sellers wanting to buy at 50% and sell at 100%. One of the wildest conversations I've ever had was with another gentleman who was interested in 4 Trout SSPs but would only pay 50% of LAST eBay comp. I asked if I could pay 50% for the Ohtani in his showcase and he got upset. Odd that.

- Many kids wanting to trade or haggle with the dejected and rude souls passing for "sellers" made me LOL. Lots of Pokemon from this crowd.

- I like some of the custom art pieces that folks bring to these events. Got a cool card holder and liked a few of the paintings/photos on display. Pricey though.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

- Sellers wanting to buy at 50% and sell at 100%. One of the wildest conversations I've ever had was with another gentleman who was interested in 4 Trout SSPs but would only pay 50% of LAST eBay comp. I asked if I could pay 50% for the Ohtani in his showcase and he got upset. Odd that.

- Many kids wanting to trade or haggle with the dejected and rude souls passing for "sellers" made me LOL. Lots of Pokemon from this crowd.

As someone who sets up at shows (not my full-time job), but if someone comes to my table and asks if I am buying or willing to trade, I won't give them full price since I would then have to resell it. I have done some trades where I lost and won during shows. However, if someone is coming to me to trade or sell, then I always under comp since I have to then either list the items via eBay or reprice it at the show. 50% does seem a bit drastic, typically I have done like 80-90% but in 2023 I will be more in the 70% since prices are much softer on cards.

[JoeAdam]

Stopped by my LCS yesterday to grab a couple boxes. Bought 3 heritage high hobby, 1 topps chrome jumbo, 1 bowman chrome HTA and 2 topps chrome update hobby. AT BEST I have $100 worth of cards. What a waste.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by JoeAdam

Stopped by my LCS yesterday to grab a couple boxes. Bought 3 heritage high hobby, 1 topps chrome jumbo, 1 bowman chrome HTA and 2 topps chrome update hobby. AT BEST I have $100 worth of cards. What a waste.

Dang bro, 10-15% return for baseball products? That hurts.

[JoeAdam]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Dang bro, 10-15% return for baseball products? That hurts.

Yeah it was all junk, it was my last big rip before I take 2023 off from buying wax. Best pulls were the goldschmidt refractor and base from topps chrome which at least gives me $60 in credit.

I dislike that you get 1 hit and 1 parallel in Heritage. You use to get a lot more. So I get a /999 scrub and a judge relic. The other boxes yielded a Ryu red ink (not terrible) and an andrew vaught ROA.

Topps chrome update yielded 2 pitcher autos and absolutely nothing else, and all the base was ruined. Won't touch this product again.

Topps chrome was 5 autos that are maybe $10 combined

Bowman Chrome HTA had 4 autos so that was nice, but the 4th auto was like a $1 insert auto. Hit a gold shimmer of some catcher on the mariners.

I'm working on sets for some of this stuff and I knew going in that the odds were long. It just ruins the hobby when you get totally skunked at that price point.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by JoeAdam

Yeah it was all junk, it was my last big rip before I take 2023 off from buying wax. Best pulls were the goldschmidt refractor and base from topps chrome which at least gives me $60 in credit.

I dislike that you get 1 hit and 1 parallel in Heritage. You use to get a lot more. So I get a /999 scrub and a judge relic. The other boxes yielded a Ryu red ink (not terrible) and an andrew vaught ROA.

Topps chrome update yielded 2 pitcher autos and absolutely nothing else, and all the base was ruined. Won't touch this product again.

Topps chrome was 5 autos that are maybe $10 combined

Bowman Chrome HTA had 4 autos so that was nice, but the 4th auto was like a $1 insert auto. Hit a gold shimmer of some catcher on the mariners.

I'm working on sets for some of this stuff and I knew going in that the odds were long. It just ruins the hobby when you get totally skunked at that price point.

Don’t forget the entertainment cost, that’s why we break, right? The thrill of the chase. Doesn’t sound like you did as bad as you think, and at least it was fun at the time!

[JoeAdam]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Don’t forget the entertainment cost, that’s why we break, right? The thrill of the chase. Doesn’t sound like you did as bad as you think, and at least it was fun at the time!

Very true! It was a fun night.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Don’t forget the entertainment cost, that’s why we break, right? The thrill of the chase. Doesn’t sound like you did as bad as you think, and at least it was fun at the time!

yes, always rip for fun. buy the singles you want if finances are your thing

[tconte]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Don’t forget the entertainment cost, that’s why we break, right? The thrill of the chase. Doesn’t sound like you did as bad as you think, and at least it was fun at the time!

Last month I bought 2022 baseball product that included Topps Archives Hobby Box, an Archives blaster, 2022 Bowman Chrome box and a couple blasters and also a few basketball packs. All in for about $400. I think I came away with
$20-$30 worth of cards.

I really wanted the Bryce Harper 2021 MVP card as I thought that was so
cool from Topps Archives. Didn't even get that so I had to buy one off ebay
for $2. lol.

I wasn't expecting to get rich but man that was rough. The Cal Ripken, Frank
Thomas, or even Babe Ruth inserts were weak.

I did get a George Foster auto that has to be worth $3-$5.

I'll add another $50 for the entertainment factor for my son and I. But even
he knew we got zip!

[cholodolo]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

As someone who sets up at shows (not my full-time job), but if someone comes to my table and asks if I am buying or willing to trade, I won't give them full price since I would then have to resell it. I have done some trades where I lost and won during shows. However, if someone is coming to me to trade or sell, then I always under comp since I have to then either list the items via eBay or reprice it at the show. 50% does seem a bit drastic, typically I have done like 80-90% but in 2023 I will be more in the 70% since prices are much softer on cards.

Yes, exactly -- I find between 70-90% reasonable at shows.

Found the very firm "you need to give me a 50% discount, but I'm not budging off my price" quite annoying and childish.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

"you need to give me a 50% discount, but I'm not budging off my price.”

Sounds like a good way for a dealer to leave a show with exactly what he brought