HOF Pace Tracker

[rms13]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Hideki Matsui also becomes an interesting case....has 508 HR combined between the JPL and MLB.

Yep. And I'd still put him ahead of Ohtani right now in the hiearchy of Japanese players. 3x MVP and 3X championships in NPB to go along with 1 WS and 1 WS MVP.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Sure, but for this purpose, you're right - they aren't counted. He would get into the Hall if he had to retire tomorrow, though, accounting for that.

Not if they requirement is to play at least 10 season in MLB. Not to be morbid but he would have to die to get in to the HOF now

[rms13]

Another interesting one is that Ke'Bryan Hayes is pretty close in WAR to the greatest hitter in baseball Luis Arraez. Everyone here seems to have Arraez as a future HOF while Hayes is basically a busted top former top prospect. WAR is garbarge

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

He had the 5th highest wRC+ and 3rd most HR in MLB in 2021.

Only 23 batters since 1903 with at least 5,000 career PA have a higher career RC+ higher than 150.

Only 16 batters between 2021 and 2023 had a season with a wRC+ higher than 150.

David Ortiz: 140 wRC+

Edgar Martinez: 147 wRC+

Ohtani's 2021 season was elite no matter how you slice it.

And yet he only led all batters in triples and intentional walks while hitting .257. And he led in caught stealing.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rms13

Not if they requirement is to play at least 10 season in MLB.

That requirement has been waved for Negro League players....I'm sure it would be waived for candidates who played part of their career in Japan.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rms13

Another interesting one is that Ke'Bryan Hayes is pretty close in WAR to the greatest hitter in baseball Luis Arraez. Everyone here seems to have Arraez as a future HOF while Hayes is basically a busted top former top prospect. WAR is garbarge

I don't know anybody who thinks Arraez is anything close to a future Hall of Famer.....maybe if he hits this well for another 10+ seasons he'll be worthy of being compared to Boggs, Carew, Gwynn, etc.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by fulltritty

And yet he only led all batters in triples and intentional walks while hitting .257. And he led in caught stealing.

What players do you collect and what is your criteria for collecting them? Do you only collect players that lead the league in specific categories? My guess is I could cherry pick a lot of stats that would make Ohtani seem like the unicorn he is. Or I could pick out the performances that only Ohtani has accomplished in major league history. You can use a lot of different stats to argue whatever you want. But at this moment Ohtani is the most popular baseball player in the game...and likely by a wide margin. He is also on pace for the HOF anyway you slice. I know you are not a fan of Ohtani, but the guy is one of the best players in the league even if he doesn't lead it any one specific stat.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by rms13

Another interesting one is that Ke'Bryan Hayes is pretty close in WAR to the greatest hitter in baseball Luis Arraez. Everyone here seems to have Arraez as a future HOF while Hayes is basically a busted top former top prospect. WAR is garbarge

IMO anyone that sees Arraez as a future HOF is living in a Ryan Howard era fantasy land about the value of 1B, or just hasn't realized that he's not even playing 2B anymore. He gives back so much of the value of his high average with his very low walk rate, so his OBP is nice but isn't insane by any stretch.

Originally Posted by mfw13

That requirement has been waved for Negro League players....I'm sure it would be waived for candidates who played part of their career in Japan.

It'd certainly get waived to get Ohtani into the Hall if it needed to be, I'd think.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by rms13

Another interesting one is that Ke'Bryan Hayes is pretty close in WAR to the greatest hitter in baseball Luis Arraez. Everyone here seems to have Arraez as a future HOF while Hayes is basically a busted top former top prospect. WAR is garbarge

Or maybe all the people who don't want to factor in defense are garbage?

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

What players do you collect and what is your criteria for collecting them? Do you only collect players that lead the league in specific categories? My guess is I could cherry pick a lot of stats that would make Ohtani seem like the unicorn he is. Or I could pick out the performances that only Ohtani has accomplished in major league history. You can use a lot of different stats to argue whatever you want. But at this moment Ohtani is the most popular baseball player in the game...and likely by a wide margin. He is also on pace for the HOF anyway you slice. I know you are not a fan of Ohtani, but the guy is one of the best players in the league even if he doesn't lead it any one specific stat.

I've answered this before for you. I am a Yankees fan and only collect Yankees cards. If you are going to call someone's particular season elite, they better be leading their league or the majors in more categories than 2. In 2023, Ohtani had an elite season as he led in 6 offensive categories and had a 6.0 WAR. Popularity does not make one elite. Of course he's popular. He has a whole country that roots for him and is on one of the most recognized teams in baseball. As we've seen with All Star voting, popularity does not equal elite every season.

I've never said I'm not a fan of Ohtani. I'm not a fan of his fan boyz like you who think he's the second coming of Christ and the best baseball player to ever play the game. Is he great, absolutely. Is he the GOAT, not even close.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by fulltritty

I've never said I'm not a fan of Ohtani. I'm not a fan of his fan boyz like you who think he's the second coming of Christ and the best baseball player to ever play the game. Is he great, absolutely. Is he the GOAT, not even close.

I am not a fan boyz, but I read Joe Podnanski article where Ohtani would have been the best hitter AND the best pitcher on 20 MLB teams in 2022?! While he is not (yet) the GOAT, that might be the greatest season in the history of sports over the last 100 years. It's kinda staggering to think about.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by rms13

Yep. And I'd still put him ahead of Ohtani right now in the hiearchy of Japanese players. 3x MVP and 3X championships in NPB to go along with 1 WS and 1 WS MVP.

“Everybody knows that the goal is to win titles but since there isn’t a measurable analysis, it’s not vital data” WAR.

[Archangel1775]

You can look at Arraez stats and know he's going to need 10 plus years of consistency at or around the level he is right now. He'll need to play until he's 40 or so and can lock it in at 3000 hits. That's a long way to go. But I looked at his prices and people are paying up for him right now. That's not high risk but it's still risky right now unless the buyers are just Padres fans.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

You can look at Arraez stats and know he's going to need 10 plus years of consistency at or around the level he is right now. He'll need to play until he's 40 or so and can lock it in at 3000 hits. That's a long way to go. But I looked at his prices and people are paying up for him right now. That's not high risk but it's still risky right now unless the buyers are just Padres fans.

How much are we talking for a PSA 10 BCA Refractor /499?

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

How much are we talking for a PSA 10 BCA Refractor /499?

Bout Three-fiddy

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

You can look at Arraez stats and know he's going to need 10 plus years of consistency at or around the level he is right now. He'll need to play until he's 40 or so and can lock it in at 3000 hits. That's a long way to go. But I looked at his prices and people are paying up for him right now. That's not high risk but it's still risky right now unless the buyers are just Padres fans.

Especially when you consider how Carew, Boggs, and Gwynn cards are treated.

[seanrs1]

This thread is one of my favorites! Seeing players I collect on the tracker gives me hope that my PC guys will one day make the HOF.

Would be interesting to hear from people who they PC players on this list and predictions/expectations of that player going forwards.

The other thing I was thinking about...when I was a kid Ken Griffey Jr. was my favorite player and I thought he was going to be the one to break a ton of records including the HR record. However, because his RC cards are from the Junk wax era, I am pretty sure I bought them for a similar price to what they sell for now. So with inflation even collecting the right guy was not a money maker.

So which player(s) on the above list assuming they become a HOF player do you think their cards will be worth more after they are inducted into the HOF compared to today?

I am only confident about Ohtani. What about you?

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So which player(s) on the above list assuming they become a HOF player do you think their cards will be worth more after they are inducted into the HOF compared to today?

I am only confident about Ohtani. What about you?

I think the big three starters, Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer, will become more appreciated once they have retired, since Gerrit Cole aside, those types of stud starters have largely disappeared from the game.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I think the big three starters, Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer, will become more appreciated once they have retired, since Gerrit Cole aside, those types of stud starters have largely disappeared from the game.

Verlander and Scherzer in particular; Kershaw is already a lot more expensive than either of them. There may not be another pitcher that ever passes Verlander in wins and IP, either.

On the position player side - he may take care of it during his career, depending on how much winning the Dodgers do the next few years, but Mookie Betts could wind up with 100 WAR and 450 HR with a relatively normal decline curve, and he's got at least an outside shot at both 3000/500 while doing crazy stuff positionally now. I think the eyes of history will look at him very kindly in a way that I haven't felt so far in his career.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Verlander and Scherzer in particular; Kershaw is already a lot more expensive than either of them. There may not be another pitcher that ever passes Verlander in wins and IP, either.

On the position player side - he may take care of it during his career, depending on how much winning the Dodgers do the next few years, but Mookie Betts could wind up with 100 WAR and 450 HR with a relatively normal decline curve, and he's got at least an outside shot at both 3000/500 while doing crazy stuff positionally now. I think the eyes of history will look at him very kindly in a way that I haven't felt so far in his career.

So you think Mookie's prices could approach Trout prices in the future assuming he performs moving forward?

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Verlander and Scherzer in particular; Kershaw is already a lot more expensive than either of them. There may not be another pitcher that ever passes Verlander in wins and IP, either.

It's kinda funny how those three are valued differently in terms of their career arcs.

Kershaw was a stud from the day he stepped on a major league mound, but has struggled to stay healthy later in his career due to nagging injuries, even while continuing to pitch at a high level when healthy.

Whereas Verlander and Scherzer were pretty average early in their career and then blossomed in their late 20's, both winning their first CY Youngs at age 28, which has led to them have lower card values since they never really got hyped as prospects.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So you think Mookie's prices could approach Trout prices in the future assuming he performs moving forward?

In the sense that their prices could get pretty close together, yeah, although it'd largely be fueled by Trout's career being mostly done at this point and Betts having several more banger seasons in him. Betts also has so very few autos - not that it has matter in Verlander vs Kershaw, but it's got to matter when Trout has signed tens of thousands of vet autos over the years.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

This thread is one of my favorites! Seeing players I collect on the tracker gives me hope that my PC guys will one day make the HOF.

Would be interesting to hear from people who they PC players on this list and predictions/expectations of that player going forwards.

The other thing I was thinking about...when I was a kid Ken Griffey Jr. was my favorite player and I thought he was going to be the one to break a ton of records including the HR record. However, because his RC cards are from the Junk wax era, I am pretty sure I bought them for a similar price to what they sell for now. So with inflation even collecting the right guy was not a money maker.

So which player(s) on the above list assuming they become a HOF player do you think their cards will be worth more after they are inducted into the HOF compared to today?

I am only confident about Ohtani. What about you?

This is wholly dependent on the market as a whole. If it's 1/4 where it is now, then nobody (including Ohtani). If it's 4x where it is now, then everybody except maybe the youngest names on the list.

If you're talking a flat market or market adjusted, I would simply rank them by price. It is much easier for guys like Paredes and Detmers to go up than Soto and Acuna simply because the latter two already have HOF priced in. If you're looking for a mid level guy, my pick is Devers.

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So you think Mookie's prices could approach Trout prices in the future assuming he performs moving forward?

Not likely, IMO. The difference is still a factor of 3.5(ish) and Betts is super hot and still has to go through his decline phase while Trout is ice cold well into his decline phase.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's kinda funny how those three are valued differently in terms of their career arcs.

Kershaw was a stud from the day he stepped on a major league mound, but has struggled to stay healthy later in his career due to nagging injuries, even while continuing to pitch at a high level when healthy.

Whereas Verlander and Scherzer were pretty average early in their career and then blossomed in their late 20's, both winning their first CY Youngs at age 28, which has led to them have lower card values since they never really got hyped as prospects.

Kershaw is a lifelong Dodger, might be better than Koufax and has that mystique/it thing. Plus, he might have another moment or two in a loaded Dodger team.
Verlander was a #2 pick, ROY and Detriot was in the World Series that year - I think he was in the top 5 CY voting first 2 yrs and threw his 1st no-no. Verlander wasn't under the radar.
Scherzer yes.
The weird thing about Verlander is he needs another moment or 2 to kinda put him over - He's the last to win 260 - top 10 all-time in k's but Detrriot and the hated Astros doesn't = Dodgers/Yankees - let's say he throws another no-no or gets to 300 wins... maybe gets off the Astros and wins a couple big games in the playoffs or world series.
Same with Scherzer only more so. If either guy went to the Yanks/Dodgers and won a ring...

[ironfireman]

ANother interesting canidate will be Sal Perez. His WAR is terrible, but he has 8 All-star games and probablly a 9th this year. He's 10th all-time already in catcher HRs 256 and can probably get to 300+ and maybe get to 5th past Parrish at 324 or maybe even overtake Yogi 336 for 4th. 5 Gold Gloves and a ring...
The trick is he as at 70th all-time games caught and the Royals seem to be shooting for 80ish per to keep his bat in the lineup and him from wearing down. If he plays out his current Royals contract through 26 at that clip it would land him at 1430+ and 40th or so... which is plenty.
Seems like a guy who will get in. IF he get 300 HR & 10 All-Stars - of course Bill Freehan had a ton of All-star games and a ring...