Hall of Famers We Are Watching in 2020

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

The basis of this particular discussion is availability. I brought this up several years ago in either this thread or the deGrom and/or Snell threads. As far as I’m aware, no one jumped in with a concrete answer.

Is there a metric for availability due to injury - and if so - is it considered by voters? Why or why not?

Dave Paciorek and Bumpus Jones are curious where the line is.

There is no metric, only precedent. And based on historical Hall of Fame voting, the answer for starting pitchers is roughly 2,000 IP. The only Starting Pitcher in the HOF with fewer than 2,000 IP who wasn't a Negro Leaguer is Dizzy Dean with 1,967 1/3 IP. And every HOF SP who gets in had some severe injury (or death in the case of Joss) shorten their career (Koufax, Dean, and Joss being the best examples).

Also, aside from Koufax, the injury shortened careers of SPs never get in on the 1st ballot.

As for why, the BBWAA doesn't consider it per se, but the BBWAA has traditionally looked at the starting pitcher as someone who is great and great for a long time, or who has such a high peak they can't be denied. The BBWAA also hasn't treated SPs too well this century as their standard for induction has been SPs who are way above the historical norm.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I think that they would have adjusted their approaches and been just as successful, if not more successful, as today's hitters. After all, today's hitters aren't any stronger or faster or smarter than hitters from the past.

Hey guys I know you are used to seeing 88-89 so here's scouting report for Mason Miller today. He's gonna sit like 102 touch 104+ and his slider is the maybe single best pitch in baseball (or ever). No problem though, just adjust your approach. Maybe choke up and go the other way, lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A44R42EP1ho

here's a pretty realistic interview, please tell me how hitters are going to adjust their approach?
The guy deGrom is sitting 100-102 ripping off 90 mpg curveballs that are tunnelled perfectly.

My fav quote for the interview, "its not like we had no chance, he faced 9 guys and punched out 8 if thats good"

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by mfw13

By HOF standards, that's nothing.....

Elite level production is 6+ WAR.....usually with an ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.00 over 200+ innings.

Kershaw had five seasons of 6+ WAR
Scherzer has had six seasons of 6+ WAR
Verlander has had six seasons of 6+ WAR

Gerrit Cole has had two seasons of 6+ WAR so far...
Chris Sale has had four seasons of 6+ WAR so far...
Jacob DeGrom has had two seasons of 6+ WAR so far...

Greg Maddux had seven seasons of 6+ WAR.
Randy Johnson had eight seasons of 6+ WAR.
Roger Clemens had eleven seasons of 6+ WAR.
Pedro Martinez had seven seasons of 6+ WAR.

Crochet's 2024 season doesn't come close. His 4.1 bWAR wasn't even in the top ten in MLB.

You don't really seem to understand the concept that pitchers today aren't really going to get 200 innings pitched and what not (though Crochet did last year!) if you don't think a WAR of almost 5 in 146 innings is elite level production? We have nothing else to talk about.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

The reason I say its absurd is because the below is the correct take (except for one of the best 3 part). You are failing to differentiate between "undeniably great but failed to pitch long enough (which I agree with for the guys you mentioned) and literally the best pitcher in the history of the game when healthy.

For reference: Mookie Betts on Jacob deGrom: “He's pretty much the best. Maybe the best to ever pitch.” Nobody is saying that about Felix Hernandez or Corey Kluber ever and the gap between their varying levels of greatness is no extreme it will easily get deGrom into the hall.

Walter Johnson was the best pitcher in the history of the game when healthy. And to be fair to deGrom, the first 1,539 IP of his career do look remarkably similar to Walter's. Now, if deGrom can just do it for another 4,400 IP then, sure, he'll be the best ever.

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

To be clear you consdier having pretty much the lowest ERA/ERA+ in baseball history, lowest FIP (after Koufax) in hisotry lowest WHIP in baseball history, lowest K/BB ratio in baseball history and top 5 K/9 of all time in baseball history to be a trivial detail?

I didn't say trivial, I said minutiae. And yes, all of that is minutiae. When it comes to a player with shortened career totals, they typically support those with some sort of tragic end to their career and label the rest as "not durable enough" or "didn't do it for long enough". What they don't do is talk about their FIP or their WHIP. At the moment Blake Snell has the highest k/9 ratio in history. If he retired today, he ain't getting either.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

You don't really seem to understand the concept that pitchers today aren't really going to get 200 innings pitched and what not (though Crochet did last year!) if you don't think a WAR of almost 5 in 146 innings is elite level production? We have nothing else to talk about.

Strong analytical skills, you have!

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Walter Johnson was the best pitcher in the history of the game when healthy. And to be fair to deGrom, the first 1,539 IP of his career do look remarkably similar to Walter's. Now, if deGrom can just do it for another 4,400 IP then, sure, he'll be the best ever.

Yes, DeGrom first 1500 innings of his career is the best first 1500 innings ever (post world war 1). Obviously its impossible to truly compare eras because if those hitters ever saw deGrom it's likely he would have been burned at the stake for being a witch before he got to 4500 innings.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

You don't really seem to understand the concept that pitchers today aren't really going to get 200 innings pitched and what not (though Crochet did last year!) if you don't think a WAR of almost 5 in 146 innings is elite level production? We have nothing else to talk about.

For me 6+ WAR over 190+ innings is elite level.

So I guess we have nothing to talk about.....

Just for the record, nine pitchers had 190+ IP last year, and three were over 200 IP......so yeah.....146 IP doesn't cut it for me.....

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by mfw13

For me 6+ WAR over 190+ innings is elite level.

So I guess we have nothing to talk about.....

Just for the record, nine pitchers had 190+ IP last year, and three were over 200 IP......so yeah.....146 IP doesn't cut it for me.....

Out of pure curiosity, do you know what SP has the highest WAR/IP all time?

[no10pin]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Out of pure curiosity, do you know what SP has the highest WAR/IP all time?

Shohei Ohtani

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Yes, DeGrom first 1500 innings of his career is the best first 1500 innings ever (post world war 1). Obviously its impossible to truly compare eras because if those hitters ever saw deGrom it's likely he would have been burned at the stake for being a witch before he got to 4500 innings.

Post WWI, I’d say Ford’s, Clemens’ and Seaver’s first 1,500 IP were better. Probably some others.

Comparing eras is fun, but you have to have reasonable parameters. If all Tom Seaver had to do was throw hard for 6 innings, he’d blow away today’s hitters just as easily as deGrom. If deGrom had to pitch in Whitey’s era, no one would even know who he was because his career would have been over before he reached the majors.

We are in agreement that Jacob deGrom is one of the best to ever pitch, but you and I don’t get a HOF vote. I’m just making a prediction based on available information. My opinion is that I don’t think deGrom will finish with 2,000 IP. At the moment, he has about a 20% chance of getting there. If he can muster 150 IP this year, he’d almost double his chances.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

We are in agreement that Jacob deGrom is one of the best to ever pitch, but you and I don’t get a HOF vote. I’m just making a prediction based on available information. My opinion is that I don’t think deGrom will finish with 2,000 IP. At the moment, he has about a 20% chance of getting there. If he can muster 150 IP this year, he’d almost double his chances.

While Degrom is def a special case he is 3rd in Cy Young odds. I can’t imagine there have been that Many seasons where any pitcher was top 3 fav for Cy young but only 20% to log 450 innings for rest of career (including that season).

Sure he’s 38 but he also has the freshest arm of any 38 year old ever (college SS, very low innings) so if he decides he want to pitch till 41 and can stay healthy I like his chances

[hammertime]

If Felix is a HOFer, so is deGrom.

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

To be clear you consdier having pretty much the lowest ERA/ERA+ in baseball history, lowest FIP (after Koufax) in hisotry lowest WHIP in baseball history, lowest K/BB ratio in baseball history and top 5 K/9 of all time in baseball history to be a trivial detail?

I thought you were talking about Jacob Degrom? You are describing Pedro Martinez here...

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Out of pure curiosity, do you know what SP has the highest WAR/IP all time?

Pedro again...

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

I thought you were talking about Jacob Degrom? You are describing Pedro Martinez here...




Pedro again...

Pedro .0297 war per inning
deGrom .0312 war per inning

deGrom also leads in ERA, K/9, SO/9, WHIP, FIP and barely trails in ERA+.

But if were gonna say he doesn't belong in the hall because he was basically Pedro but not nearly as healthy, or koufax without the run support then I'd prob let him in

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Pedro .0297 war per inning
deGrom .0312 war per inning

deGrom also leads in ERA, K/9, SO/9, WHIP, FIP and barely trails in ERA+.

But if were gonna say he doesn't belong in the hall because he was basically Pedro but not nearly as healthy, or koufax without the run support then I'd prob let him in

Actually, the answer is Paul Skenes .03375. The problem with doing WAR/anything is that the number always goes down later in the career. Do you think those numbers above are going to to go up or go down for Degrom after the age of 37? Right now, Degrom has about 6.5 years worth of innings pitched in 12 years in the bigs. The best ability is availability, and Degrom hasn't been very available. Koufax pitched 2300 innings. Pedro 2800. If Degrom pitched long enough to even get to 2000, all his rates would drop significantly.

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

While Degrom is def a special case he is 3rd in Cy Young odds. I can’t imagine there have been that Many seasons where any pitcher was top 3 fav for Cy young but only 20% to log 450 innings for rest of career (including that season).

Sure he’s 38 but he also has the freshest arm of any 38 year old ever (college SS, very low innings) so if he decides he want to pitch till 41 and can stay healthy I like his chances

*spoiler alert*

He probably isn't going to stay healthy.

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Yes, DeGrom first 1500 innings of his career is the best first 1500 innings ever (post world war 1). Obviously its impossible to truly compare eras because if those hitters ever saw deGrom it's likely he would have been burned at the stake for being a witch before he got to 4500 innings.

I don't think you watch much baseball. Check Dwight Gooden's first 1500 IP, and he's not a HOFer. Pedro's first 1500 innings pitched were much much better. And then threw 1300 more innings.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

I don't think you watch much baseball. Check Dwight Gooden's first 1500 IP, and he's not a HOFer. Pedro's first 1500 innings pitched were much much better. And then threw 1300 more innings.

Yup, we did this already

Pedro first 1500: https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...3#post19931503

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

While Degrom is def a special case he is 3rd in Cy Young odds. I can’t imagine there have been that Many seasons where any pitcher was top 3 fav for Cy young but only 20% to log 450 innings for rest of career (including that season).

Sure he’s 38 but he also has the freshest arm of any 38 year old ever (college SS, very low innings) so if he decides he want to pitch till 41 and can stay healthy I like his chances

The reason he only clocks at a 20% chance is his last three years of IP look like this:

2023: 30.1 IP
2024: 10.2 IP
2025: 172.2 IP

That’s why this season is so important for him.

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

The reason he only clocks at a 20% chance is his last three years of IP look like this:

2023: 30.1 IP
2024: 10.2 IP
2025: 172.2 IP

That’s why this season is so important for him.

2022 64.1
2021 92.0

I wouldn't bet a dime on him staying healthy.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

2022 64.1
2021 92.0

I wouldn't bet a dime on him staying healthy.

Prediction markets are the best source of probabilities out there. He’s third in the AL to win the Cy Young, that holds way more weight then jsut looking at his stats from 2 and 3 seasons ago.

His K total is like 160. He can’t have a K total of 160 and a 20% chance to throw < 500 innings for rest of career, that math doesn’t work

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Prediction markets are the best source of probabilities out there. He’s third in the AL to win the Cy Young, that holds way more weight then jsut looking at his stats from 2 and 3 seasons ago.

His K total is like 160. He can’t have a K total of 160 and a 20% chance to throw < 500 innings for rest of career, that math doesn’t work

Who is the source that makes you confident 37 year old Jacob DeGrom who since 2021 has had exactly 1 healthy season (last year) will make a full (or largely full) season of innings pitched? I'm certainly not rooting against it, it just wouldn't be wise whatsoever to bet a dime on it.

[StateEx]

In a world where Jones, Posey, and King Felix are HOFs, DeGrom's candidacy looks a lot more plausible. It'll be interesting then if the legacy committees go back and revisit historical standouts with super high peaks.

Either way, I have a red foil DeGrom RC that isn't going anywhere.

[Stifle]

Bruce Bochy, Dusty Baker, Brian Cashman for managers / executives. Verlander, is ahead of the list for players. I’m sure there will be some announcer that will receive entrance that will be employed this season. As far as umpires, Pat Hobert is the name that pops up because of his accuracy.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Skip, were you talking Sandy Alcantara’s HOF chances or his career in general? I highly doubt he gets into the Hall, but his career is far from done. He finished the 2025 looking back on track after a rough start to the season.