Royce Lewis - Page 5

vwnut13 · 09-22-2023, 02:59 PM

To the IL with a hamstring strain.

Rooftop · 09-22-2023, 05:43 PM

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ighlight=Lewis

rwperu34 · 09-23-2023, 01:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rooftop

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ighlight=Lewis

No! No! No! Don't bring that one back!

Zauron · 09-23-2023, 09:32 AM

Royce Lewis injured, a tale as old as time

Sucks because the guy actually has quietly put together a solid season when healthy. I guess his stuff still sells relatively well.

hermanotarjeta · 09-23-2023, 09:37 AM

Maybe he should have an injury reference in the thread title.

Half the time you check in it would be true.

daeve · 09-23-2023, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwperu34

This is some serious recency bias right here. Despite their difference this year, Vlad projects to hit for more power, a higher avg, more hits, more RBI, more health, and more WAR next year.

One thing overlooked about Vlad; since his debut he's missed a grand total of 8 games. Since he debuted at 20 that is some serious HOF pace right there. Meanwhile, Royce Lewis has 280 career PA at the same age. I don't know what the price difference is between the two, but I'd expect it to be 10x in favor of Vlad. Now, if Lewis starts mashing 40 HR a year while putting up top 10 numbers in ERA, he will justifiably blow by Vlad. If he simply hits 40 HR next year while Vlad settles in in the low 30s, Vlad will (should) still be 5x more expensive.

It's possible Vlad's just experiencing a bad year, but yeah I think you're overlooking how bad he's been. His 2021 was excellent, that's what you want to see from a "HOF"-ish all-bat no-defense guy, last year was good, even if his ISOP dipped 85 points at least it was still over 200... His ISO this year is now down to .174, and while his BB% is up a tick it doesn't make up for his big dip in power from '21 [down 116 points]. The question you have to ask is if this is only a 1-year anomaly, what's causing it?

Fact remains that in 650 PA this year, Vlad is supplying 0.7 WAR and Royce has amassed 2.4 WAR in 239 PA. And my whole post you replied to was framed as "what should they be priced at if this trend from this season continues"... meaning a healthy year from Royce next season places him as a top 10 hitter, since these are the names that are either above or should hit ~6 WAR this year: Acuna, Betts, Freeman, Ohtani, Olson, Seager, Julio, Semien... and then maybe Carroll, Lindor, and Witt have a shot to join the club. Royce is showing he has the talent to be in that group, just needs some health luck.

BBases31 · 09-23-2023, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daeve

The question you have to ask is if this is only a 1-year anomaly, what's causing it?

He played 3/4 of his home games that year in Minor League parks that were bandboxes, one of them was a AA field. His OPS was near 1.400 in them. It's safe to completely write off every game he played in those parks

daeve · 09-23-2023, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBases31

He played 3/4 of his home games that year in Minor League parks that were bandboxes, one of them was a AA field. His OPS was near 1.400 in them. It's safe to completely write off every game he played in those parks

Right - almost forgot about that - makes me more confident being in the camp that's highly skeptical of him. His one excellent season was so far more an anomaly than the rest. What we're seeing now is probably closer to his true talent level.

rwperu34 · 09-24-2023, 02:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daeve

It's possible Vlad's just experiencing a bad year, but yeah I think you're overlooking how bad he's been. His 2021 was excellent, that's what you want to see from a "HOF"-ish all-bat no-defense guy, last year was good, even if his ISOP dipped 85 points at least it was still over 200... His ISO this year is now down to .174, and while his BB% is up a tick it doesn't make up for his big dip in power from '21 [down 116 points]. The question you have to ask is if this is only a 1-year anomaly, what's causing it?

Fact remains that in 650 PA this year, Vlad is supplying 0.7 WAR and Royce has amassed 2.4 WAR in 239 PA. And my whole post you replied to was framed as "what should they be priced at if this trend from this season continues"... meaning a healthy year from Royce next season places him as a top 10 hitter, since these are the names that are either above or should hit ~6 WAR this year: Acuna, Betts, Freeman, Ohtani, Olson, Seager, Julio, Semien... and then maybe Carroll, Lindor, and Witt have a shot to join the club. Royce is showing he has the talent to be in that group, just needs some health luck.

Ah, so it's just the pace problem. Being a six WAR pace is not the same as putting up six WAR. Maybe you think he's going to spank 45 HR next year too?

He'll probably project around 3.5-4 WAR over a full season. Of course he'll be discounted by 25% due to injury risk, so 3 WAR over/under next year. Keep in mind, even with a .340+ BABIP (something he didn't show in the minors) and a 6.1% HR% (more than double his minor league rate) he's still not at 3 WAR for his career...through age 24.

Heck, I might even give Lewis a WAR edge over Vlad if healthy! That's not what moves prices though. What moves prices are HR, hits, AVG, RBI. All the things that lumbering, terrible defensive 1b provide in mass quantities. The health aspect is just gravy in favor of Vlad.

Rooftop · 10-03-2023, 04:36 PM

He’s Back!

awz50 · 10-03-2023, 04:43 PM

Dude needs to stay healthy

LCM1223 · 10-03-2023, 06:19 PM

Awesome

LVDan · 10-03-2023, 07:00 PM

Moving into ”hobby decent” territory

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ferg1945 · 10-03-2023, 07:03 PM

Topps NOW auto tomorrow!!

JoshMN · 10-03-2023, 07:09 PM

Neither of his HR was a grand slam? Pffft. He’s regressing.

Lonewolf · 10-03-2023, 07:13 PM

Makes me happy to see this guy healthy and mashing!

RainCityShecks · 10-03-2023, 08:15 PM

I might regret selling my green sapphire RC soon

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Rbradleigh · 10-03-2023, 08:45 PM

Dude is Drago. Whatever he hits, he destroys.
My darkhorse MVP for next year

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hollywood42 · 10-03-2023, 09:13 PM

Simply incredible.

daeve · 10-03-2023, 09:33 PM

Too much talent to ignore - go Royce go!

ItsMeJordanD · 10-03-2023, 10:03 PM

I ended up accumulating several duplicates of his rookie cards because they were going for way too cheap when he was injured. Here's my collection:

Sorry for the poor photo quality. The silver ones are refractors numbered to 299, not base. They're all numbered parallels except the flagship SP photo variation.

cj828282 · 10-03-2023, 10:08 PM

Totally messes me up that MLB has him as a rookie. But his RC logo cards were last year. Sure wish Topps and MLB could get this straight.

PLAYED4NOTHING · 10-03-2023, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rbradleigh

Dude is Drago. Whatever he hits, he destroys.
My darkhorse MVP for next year

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah there’s some serious pop in that long smooth swing. If he’s in the on deck circle get your people ready to watch.

MiamiMarlinsFan · 10-04-2023, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj828282

Totally messes me up that MLB has him as a rookie. But his RC logo cards were last year. Sure wish Topps and MLB could get this straight.

It has to do with his injuries more than anything related to Topps. He didn’t play enough games last year to burn his rookie eligibility.

cj828282 · 10-04-2023, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

It has to do with his injuries more than anything related to Topps. He didn’t play enough games last year to burn his rookie eligibility.

I know and realize his injuries probably didn't give him enough games for rookie status. But had to do a double take when I saw MLB was calling him a rookie. I guess if he had more of a season with the current stats he may be a high consideration for AL ROY.

09-23-2023, 09:32 AM	#104
Zauron Member Join Date: Aug 2013 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 5,569	Royce Lewis injured, a tale as old as time Sucks because the guy actually has quietly put together a solid season when healthy. I guess his stuff still sells relatively well. __________________ Champ Bailey Collector! Currently: 909/2602 hermanotarjeta: You've been BRIOSED!!!!!!!!!

10-03-2023, 04:43 PM	#111
awz50 Member Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: New Hampshire>>>Arizona>>>>Florida Posts: 33,147 awz50	Dude needs to stay healthy __________________ Collecting Baseball Hof Autographs 248/351 Blowouts Official Red Sox face of the franchise Eduardo Rodriguez Super Collector

10-03-2023, 06:19 PM	#112
LCM1223 Member Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Pennsylvania Posts: 26,497 lucards1295	Awesome __________________ Total Topps BUNT Profits: $1552.83 KICK: $3243.82 HUDDLE: $300.22 STAR WARS CARD TRADER: $2887.08 STAR WARS FORCE COLLECTION: $1318.14 TWD: $94.09 SKATE: $697.03

10-03-2023, 07:00 PM	#113
LVDan Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 17,510	Moving into ”hobby decent” territory Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ So we cheated and we lied and we tested. And we never failed to fail; it was the easiest thing to do.

10-03-2023, 08:15 PM	#117
RainCityShecks Member Join Date: Dec 2022 Location: Seattle Posts: 926 raincityshecks	Royce Lewis I might regret selling my green sapphire RC soon Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

09-22-2023, 02:59 PM	#101
vwnut13 Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 6,103	To the IL with a hamstring strain.

09-22-2023, 05:43 PM	#102
Rooftop Member Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,480	https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ighlight=Lewis

09-23-2023, 09:37 AM	#105
hermanotarjeta Member Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 20,829	Maybe he should have an injury reference in the thread title. Half the time you check in it would be true.

10-03-2023, 04:36 PM	#110
Rooftop Member Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,480	He’s Back!

10-03-2023, 07:03 PM	#114
Ferg1945 Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Midwest Posts: 14,720	Topps NOW auto tomorrow!!

10-03-2023, 07:09 PM	#115
JoshMN Member Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 1,531	Neither of his HR was a grand slam? Pffft. He’s regressing.

10-03-2023, 07:13 PM	#116
Lonewolf Member Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: California Posts: 4,374	Makes me happy to see this guy healthy and mashing!

10-03-2023, 08:45 PM	#118
Rbradleigh Member Join Date: Jun 2021 Location: Kent, WA Posts: 1,542	Dude is Drago. Whatever he hits, he destroys. My darkhorse MVP for next year Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

10-03-2023, 09:13 PM	#119
Hollywood42 Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Minnesota Posts: 39,443 Hollywood42	Simply incredible. __________________ Collecting the Twins All my PC wants/haves available at hollywood42cards.com

10-03-2023, 09:33 PM	#120
daeve Member Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: savannah GA Posts: 13,135 accrules	Too much talent to ignore - go Royce go!

10-03-2023, 10:03 PM	#121
ItsMeJordanD Member Join Date: Dec 2019 Location: Fargo, ND Posts: 214 thisoneisforever JordanD89	I ended up accumulating several duplicates of his rookie cards because they were going for way too cheap when he was injured. Here's my collection: Sorry for the poor photo quality. The silver ones are refractors numbered to 299, not base. They're all numbered parallels except the flagship SP photo variation. __________________ Collecting: Topps Chrome parallels of Minnesota Twins Maybe the real gem mint 10s were the friends we made along the way...

10-03-2023, 10:08 PM	#122
cj828282 Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 13,967	Totally messes me up that MLB has him as a rookie. But his RC logo cards were last year. Sure wish Topps and MLB could get this straight.