Is Kyle Schwarber a HOFer?

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Stifle

Maybe the Phillies paid him to have a Post Season WPA of 1.00 compared to the Dodgers paying Betts to be a regular season stud but have Mookie be unproductive with a negative WPA. Some GM’s understand that they build for the entire season, while others create teams to be regular season strong. History is a strong replicator.

The problem with dollars per WAR, is that WAR is only a regular season stat and certain players only produce during the regular season. Kyle produces much longer than what Fangraphs critiques his contractual value.

You notice how I said that I was using Fangraph's generous number? As in, I don't agree with it. On the open market for every free agent, it's closer to $5-6 million, which would make Schwarber's number look worse.

Schwarber's post-season numbers aren't any better than his regular season numbers. High home runs, extremely low average.

And in 2016, once the Cubs got to the World Series, he went cold. Was relagated to DH only, 0 home runs, 2 rbi, 2 runs.

Schwarber's 1.04 WPA? Propped up by that 2016 run to the WS, where he had a .55 WPA. History is a strong replicator? He produced 1/3 of that in 2016, then in 2017, 2018, and 2020 had a negative WPA. So, what history are you talking about, his roller coaster?

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by whitmm

You notice how I said that I was using Fangraph's generous number? As in, I don't agree with it?

Schwarber's post-season numbers aren't any better than his regular season numbers. High home runs, extremely low average.

And in 2016, once the Cubs got to the World Series, he went cold. Was relagated to DH only, 0 home runs, 2 rbi, 2 runs.

Schwarber's 1.04 WPA? Propped up by that 2016 run to the WS, where he had a .55 WPA. History is a strong replicator? He produced 1/3 of that in 2016, then in 2017, 2018, and 2020 had a negative WPA. So, what history are you talking about, his roller coaster?

Schwarber has 237 plate appearances in the Post Season. GM’s realize what they are bringing in. In the end, he has a high ceiling of producing with flat liners. Players like Betts, Votto, Helton, Mauer are Flat Liners who produce when the moment is low leverage in the Post Season.

What was the leverage of the situation ? I realize some members are so taken in by WAR that they apply situations equally but they are not. Just like some players constantly choke in the playoffs while others have decent to strong WPA’s. Herb Pennock had a 2.35 pitching WPA in the World Series minus .25 as a batter = 2.10 which old school fans would classify as Clutch.

[evileddie]

Originally Posted by whitmm

And in 2016, once the Cubs got to the World Series, he went cold. Was relagated to DH only, 0 home runs, 2 rbi, 2 runs.

What? He was 7-17 in that series with 3 walks. He was recovering from full tears to the ACL and LCL in his left knee and it was a miracle he was able to play in that series. He was a huge boost to the Cubs in that series.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Stifle

Schwarber has 237 plate appearances in the Post Season. GM’s realize what they are bringing in. In the end, he has a high ceiling of producing with flat liners. Players like Betts, Votto, Helton, Mauer are Flat Liners who produce when the moment is low leverage in the Post Season.

What was the leverage of the situation ? I realize some members are so taken in by WAR that they apply situations equally but they are not. Just like some players constantly choke in the playoffs while others have decent to strong WPA’s. Herb Pennock had a 2.35 pitching WPA in the World Series minus .25 as a batter = 2.10 which old school fans would classify as Clutch.

You can go through his plate appearances one by one. You tried saying that he has this history of coming up big. He no showed in the 2016 World Series, after playing well in the two series before that. Pretty much all of his WPA from the 2022 WS came from the solo hr he hit in game 6.

But yeah, I'm sure Philly is paying Kyle $20 million/year because of his performance in the 2015 NLDS and NLCS

[evileddie]

Originally Posted by whitmm

You can go through his plate appearances one by one. You tried saying that he has this history of coming up big. He no showed in the 2016 World Series, after playing well in the two series before that. Pretty much all of his WPA from the 2022 WS came from the solo hr he hit in game 6.

But yeah, I'm sure Philly is paying Kyle $20 million/year because of his performance in the 2016 NLDS and NLCS

He didn't play in the 2016 NLDS and 2016 NLCS. Please see my post above.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by evileddie

What? He was 7-17 in that series with 3 walks. He was recovering from full tears to the ACL and LCL in his left knee and it was a miracle he was able to play in that series. He was a huge boost to the Cubs in that series.

Sorry, it had it merged together in the 2015 playoffs. And you win games by scoring runs. Addison Russell drove in 9 runs. That's a bigger boost than Schwarber. Anthony Rizzo drove in 5.

And the Phillies didn't pay him $20 million a year because of that series.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by evileddie

What? He was 7-17 in that series with 3 walks. He was recovering from full tears to the ACL and LCL in his left knee and it was a miracle he was able to play in that series. He was a huge boost to the Cubs in that series.

Some members are so focused on WAR and OPS instead of having the most vital aspect of a player be - A performer. Kirk Gibson performed one at bat in the WS for LA and it’s a legacy moment.

I’ll ask this to WAR followers. Why is Kyle batting lead off when everything that WAR is about screams horrible move ? Somebody on the Phillies understands that 69% of all teams that score the first run of the game win the game. Put the power guys earlier in the lineup to have better odds of scoring the first run. WAR screams that this move is ludicrous but baseball data backs it up. WAR is a accumulation stat that does nothing in the Post Season. There is no time to accumulate, it’s here and now ! Schwarber is made for the Post Season, others are not.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by evileddie

He didn't play in the 2016 NLDS and 2016 NLCS. Please see my post above.

Got. It has nothing to do with what the Phillies are paying him. Paying someone $20 million a year to make outs in 80%+ of their at bats is a bad contract.

[asujbl]

5 pages is a lot for a joke thread

Is this the OT section?

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by whitmm

And in 2016, once the Cubs got to the World Series, he went cold. Was relagated to DH only, 0 home runs, 2 rbi, 2 runs.

he hit over .400 in the world series with cubs. lifetime WS numbers are .325 with 3 homers in 37 AB. what do you consider hot

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Stifle

Some members are so focused on WAR and OPS instead of having the most vital aspect of a player be - A performer. Kirk Gibson performed one at bat in the WS for LA and it’s a legacy moment.

I’ll ask this to WAR followers. Why is Kyle batting lead off when everything that WAR is about screams horrible move ? Somebody on the Phillies understands that 69% of all teams that score the first run of the game win the game. Put the power guys earlier in the lineup to have better odds of scoring the first run. WAR screams that this move is ludicrous but baseball data backs it up. WAR is a accumulation stat that does nothing in the Post Season. There is no time to accumulate, it’s here and now ! Schwarber is made for the Post Season, others are not.

Dude, you are the one that brought up WPA, so I responded to it. Don't act like it was anyone else.

How many of Schwarber's post season homers came in the first inning?

It's amazing how you ignore the history of him not producing.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Got. It has nothing to do with what the Phillies are paying him. Paying someone $20 million a year to make outs in 80%+ of their at bats is a bad contract.

What would his war be as a DH only this year. If you count playoff WAR its a good contract for the Phillies

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

he hit over .400 in the world series with cubs. lifetime WS numbers are .325 with 3 homers in 37 AB. what do you consider hot

I consider not driving in or scoring runs to be not producing. You can't win if you don't score, right?

Awesome, tell me how huge hitting a 2 run home run in a 4-0 game was.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

What would his war be as a DH only this year. If you count playoff WAR its a good contract for the Phillies

My comment had nothing to do with WAR.

But if you want to get into it, how about we talk about how his play in LF left them in a wild card battle? Good thing Harper was able to return sooner than expected to get him off the field or otherwise they may have been sitting at home. Doesn't matter how good you are in the postseason if you don't make it there.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Awesome, tell me how huge hitting a 2 run home run in a 4-0 game was.

1. Leadoff homer in 5-3 win
2. homer with 1 run lead.
3. homer with 2 run lead

those seem likely to contribute to wins

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by whitmm

My comment had nothing to do with WAR.

you were saying his contract is bad in terms of WAR/20 million. but if you took his war as a DH it would be profitable by your calcuations. its only a bad deal because hes such a terrible OF but hes only a terrible OF so harper can DH. so if you really want to look at value of his contract you can also add value of harper as a DH

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

1. Leadoff homer in 5-3 win
2. homer with 1 run lead.
3. homer with 2 run lead

those seem likely to contribute to wins

You were talking about World Series. One of those 3 home runs came in game 3, when they were up 4-0.

I'm not sure what you are referencing.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

you were saying his contract is bad in terms of WAR/20 million. but if you took his war as a DH it would be profitable by your calcuations. its only a bad deal because hes such a terrible OF but hes only a terrible OF so harper can DH. so if you really want to look at value of his contract you can also add value of harper as a DH

Wrong. I said it was a bad contract. I said it didn't even live up to Fangraph's expectations. My comments on it being a bad contract had nothing to do with WAR.

Schwarber was playing in left before Harper returned, so wrong about him only playing out there so Harper could DH

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by whitmm

When you have decades of proof showing every clean player that's reached a mark has gotten in, that makes it a bar. Until someone hits that mark who is way behind in every other stat. Then the bar gets raised.

I didn't know I was talking to the spokesman for the BBWAA. Anyways back to the question. Schwarber isn't getting in, 500 hrs or not.

That doesn’t make it a bar. The fact that players can be “way behind in every other stat” is evidence that there is no bar, as happened with Kingman. You are retrofitting the illusion of a bar to fit a narrative. We can all agree Schwarber isn’t going in the Hall of Fame even if he hits 500 HRs. That right there is evidence there is no bar. Otherwise it would be, “as soon as Schwarber hits HR #500, he’s a lock.”

And I’m not the spokesman for the BBWAA, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[LCM1223]

Originally Posted by asujbl

5 pages is a lot for a joke thread

Is this the OT section?

I love Schwarber but thread shouldn’t have made it past page 2

[SidVish]

Originally Posted by LCM1223

I love Schwarber but thread shouldn’t have made it past page 2

Same here. As a Cubs fan I'm probably one of his biggest fans but hof? No chance.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

That doesn’t make it a bar. The fact that players can be “way behind in every other stat” is evidence that there is no bar, as happened with Kingman. You are retrofitting the illusion of a bar to fit a narrative. We can all agree Schwarber isn’t going in the Hall of Fame even if he hits 500 HRs. That right there is evidence there is no bar. Otherwise it would be, “as soon as Schwarber hits HR #500, he’s a lock.”

And I’m not the spokesman for the BBWAA, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Dave Kingman not getting in pushed the bar higher.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Dude, you are the one that brought up WPA, so I responded to it. Don't act like it was anyone else.

How many of Schwarber's post season homers came in the first inning?

It's amazing how you ignore the history of him not producing.

His production in the regular season isn’t great, hence look at my first post in this thread. The only way Schwarber is going to make it into the HOF is to win 4 World Series MVP’s. Could this happen, very doubtful but I’m saying Schwarber is much more valuable a player in the entire season than WAR equates him. His 1.00 WPA means he produces in the Post Season better than what you may perceive him as a valuable performer.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Stifle

His production in the regular season isn’t great, hence look at my first post in this thread. The only way Schwarber is going to make it into the HOF is to win 4 World Series MVP’s. Could this happen, very doubtful but I’m saying Schwarber is much more valuable a player in the entire season than WAR equates him. His 1.00 WPA means he produces in the Post Season better than what you may perceive him as a valuable performer.

That 1.04 WPA largely comes from 2 post seasons, 2015 and 2022. Those two account for .87 of it. And in between those two, he's had a .16 WPA, a .08 WPA, and three negative WPA.

Let's quit acting like he's a guy that has consistently been a big time post season player. I can also see why you want to focus on WPA for a guy like Schwarber, since it's a stat that doesn't factor in defensive contributions at all. That's why you want to use it to compare him to people like Betts (who has contributed in other ways to help win 2 WS, plus his .32 WPA in 2020), or Votto (11 postseason games) Helton (15 games, better clutch number than Schwarber, 1 bad postseason, 1 good) or Mauer (10 games and 44 PA). Sure convenient that you picked a bunch of guys with fewer games/PAs by a large margin for a counting stat.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by PhillyVintage

To do so, he would have to hit more home runs in his age 31 season onward than all but 11 players all-time, 4 of whom are confirmed roiders and many of the rest are all-time greats. I just don’t see it.

And that’s ignoring the fact that counting stats don’t mean what they used to and will probably mean even less by the time he’s up for induction.

Didn't see anybody fact check this, but I count 24 players who have hit 254 HR from 31 onward since 1920. That includes the likes of Raul Ibanez, Steve Finley, and Darrell Evans.