Potential Superstars under 23

[oldgoldy97]

https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nba-b...nthony-edwards

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

ok well if that is the criteria you're working with I mostly agree with your list

I don't think many even read what I wrote. I said these are the names in order with a > 1% chance of being a top ~20 player with A*S starter peaks imo. Say Wemby at the top is ~65-70%, then J Dub at the bottom is in the ~3-5% range... That seems very reasonable to me.

Tiers could look something like this:

~65%
Wembanyama
~50-55%
Scoot Henderson
Anthony Edwards
~35-40%
Scottie Barnes
Tyrese Haliburton
Lamelo Ball
Jalen Green
~25-30%
Jaden Ivey
Chet Holmgren
Paolo Banchero
~10-15%
Evan Mobley
Ben Mathurin
~3-5%
Jalen Williams

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by daeve

Wrong, sold 95% of my Giannis in 2019. Still have most of my Jokic. The multipliers go up quickly back when you could buy raw Joker Prizm for $2 per, submit the best at PSA for $15 per and wait for them to hit $400.

To be fair, I think only a few of those remember how cheap Giannis/Joker were going for in their first two seasons - even for a much colder market back then.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

Wrong, sold 95% of my Giannis in 2019. Still have most of my Jokic. The multipliers go up quickly back when you could buy raw Joker Prizm for $2 per, submit the best at PSA for $15 per and wait for them to hit $400.

I don't think we'll ever see this dynamic again.

Hell, people were hyping up Jovic because his name was CLOSE to Jokic. No other reason.

It's nearly impossible to find un-hyped players who have even an ounce of potential anymore.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Google “NBA player Ant” then get back to me.

What does that have to do with anything? I'm still wondering how you figured anyone meant Edwards when talking about "Ant and Sharpe".

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I don't think we'll ever see this dynamic again.

Hell, people were hyping up Jovic because his name was CLOSE to Jokic. No other reason.

It's nearly impossible to find un-hyped players who have even an ounce of potential anymore.

No, but I mentioned I'd be fine with 2-3x of what we used to be able to get. Will I ever get another Giannis-type prospect Prizm Auto /49 for $45 again? No. For $150? I can see it, if enough people who've been threatening to leave the hobby do actually leave.

[Jed Clampett]

A healthy ZION ( rare chance) is the best bet other than ANT
You can’t question his dynamics and scoring potential when on the court.

[pmatic]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nba-b...nthony-edwards

I knew Haliburton was among the best as stated in my OP but I just don't think he'll be a hobby darling regardless of how successful his career as a Pacer.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by Jed Clampett

A healthy ZION ( rare chance) is the best bet other than ANT
You can’t question his dynamics and scoring potential when on the court.

But I can question the ball-and-socket dynamics of his hip joint. Which I have been since he was drafted. It's never been about weight, it's about his biomechanics.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

I don't think we'll ever see this dynamic again.

Hell, people were hyping up Jovic because his name was CLOSE to Jokic. No other reason.

It's nearly impossible to find un-hyped players who have even an ounce of potential anymore.

Did this really happen? I always assumed it was some kind of joke or something.

[imbluestreak23]

I see zero as well.

Comparing NFL young stars to NBA. Eek, NFL market share for sports entertainment looks bright

[daeve]

Originally Posted by pmatic

I knew Haliburton was among the best as stated in my OP but I just don't think he'll be a hobby darling regardless of how successful his career as a Pacer.

Market size doesn't matter as much as it used to. The game is global. GS was a small market team before Curry. Milwaukee didn't affect Giannis' rise. Harden, KD, Westbrook all eventually left OKC, etc. Talent trumps all. Denver being a small market team probably kept Jokic far cheaper for far longer [and probably contributes to him still being relatively cheap]. Memphis is a small market but Ja transcended that. Dallas? It's maybe 5-10% of the equation. Talent and production is like 80%.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by daeve

No, but I mentioned I'd be fine with 2-3x of what we used to be able to get. Will I ever get another Giannis-type prospect Prizm Auto /49 for $45 again? No. For $150? I can see it, if enough people who've been threatening to leave the hobby do actually leave.

Sengun would be a prime example. Never really hyped, never gonna be a hobby star - who knows if he'll even make an All-Star game?

But some of his cards have gone up in price. Easy flip on COMC for some of his singles.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Did this really happen? I always assumed it was some kind of joke or something.

I think part of it was people assuming the Heat are one of those teams who develop talent well / get the most out of their players. I'm sure Serbian kids now are emulating Joker as best they can, but odds we see another Serbian kid with his level of skill is slim to nil, at least within the same decade.

[pmatic]

Originally Posted by daeve

Market size doesn't matter as much as it used to. The game is global. GS was a small market team before Curry. Milwaukee didn't affect Giannis' rise. Harden, KD, Westbrook all eventually left OKC, etc. Talent trumps all. Denver being a small market team probably kept Jokic far cheaper for far longer [and probably contributes to him still being relatively cheap]. Memphis is a small market but Ja transcended that. Dallas? It's maybe 5-10% of the equation. Talent and production is like 80%.

That's a good point. I think what I meant to say is Hali's game isn't as exciting to garner hobby love but that could just be me. While I loved Duncan's polished back to the basket brand of basketball, I understand why Amare Stoudemire was a more popular player to some fans back then.

[pmatic]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Sengun would be a prime example. Never really hyped, never gonna be a hobby star - who knows if he'll even make an All-Star game?

But some of his cards have gone up in price. Easy flip on COMC for some of his singles.

I think speculators are banking on the idea that he may be the next Jokic. He was a good buy last year but a huge risk now at current prices, IMO.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by daeve

It's not the competition, it's the style of 'collecting'/investing and ideology.

Tell me what my style is daeve. I don't think you have a clue what I collect.

[pmatic]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Tell me what my style is daeve. I don't think you have a clue what I collect.

Let me guess, GOT cards?

[pmatic]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I see zero as well.

Comparing NFL young stars to NBA. Eek, NFL market share for sports entertainment looks bright

Only thing missing for the NBA is a Mahomes a dynamic American born phenom but I guess we can compare him to Giannis, since both are the youngest yet most accomplished in their respective leagues.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

https://sidelinesources.com/nba-news...-ant-number-2/

“Yeah, he’s pretty good. I don’t know why they call him ‘ANT’. Like, how’s his name spelt? A-N-F. So, I don’t get the correlation. Yeah, I think they should call him a different name. I mean, my name is A-N-T! You get where I’m coming from. His name is A-N-F. But as far as basketball player, he’s really good, to me. He make tough shots, he defends. He can play, man. So, if they want to call him ANT, they call him ‘ANT number 2’. But yeah, it’s cool.”

Yes, it took about 150 entries before I found something related to Ant Simons…and it was a Blazer website

Jesus man, it was obviously in reference to Shaedon Sharpe so how would Anthony Edwards trade availability have anything to do with that

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Jesus man, it was obviously in reference to Shaedon Sharpe so how would Anthony Edwards trade availability have anything to do with that

Exactly...nevermind Simons was in the league before Edwards.

[NSGJT]

Originally Posted by pmatic

Only thing missing for the NBA is a Mahomes a dynamic American born phenom but I guess we can compare him to Giannis, since both are the youngest yet most accomplished in their respective leagues.

I still think Giannis is a bit overrated and Mahomes is clearly much better and will have a better legacy. 2 rings already in the NFL and 3 SB appearances, 5x AFFCGs in a row is way harder to do in that sport and way more impressive than anything Giannis has done. Team matters for that too though.

I think Tatum/Doncic are pretty close to Burrow/Herbert. But then who's your Allen/Lawrence? And we're talking QBs only.

Donovan Mitchell is a prime example of why being "good" and a top 10-20 player doesn't translate to card value skyrocketing or going up much at all. You can go grab a Mitchell auto for 100-200 bucks, peak NBA hype. The guy was 5th in MVP votes, 7th in scoring this season, and is a defensive stud, all-star, etc. I mentioned Jaylen Brown as well, another fringe top 10, at least top 15-20 player easily who's cards aren't worth s-.

But as you claimed you are collecting and don't care about value a ton, so that's fine. I just think this needs to be stated because most people are speculators and gamblers and looking for some gold mine prospect. I don't see that outside of Wemby who will have supernova levels of hype, you're not buying in cheap there.

[Nomad]

Giannis is nothing without Middleton and Holiday. Then again, it is arguably Harden who has set Embid on fire.

[msink28]

If I only had to pick one guy under 23 for hobby relevance I guess I would still take Zion Williamson. If, by some miracle, he can string together one full season, the Pelicans will be very good, he'll be all-NBA, and it's game on. He has the most talent of anyone under 23 in my view. I don't know anything about the 2023 draft class.

The other guys you have to extrapolate pretty far. Banchero was pretty inefficient this year, as were Ivey and Jalen Green. Cade, LaMelo didn't play much. Giddey can't shoot. Sengun can't defend. Nobody cares about Haliburton or Mobley. Edwards is good, but can he take another step forward because he's a tier below the top SGs right now. You get the drift.

If you want to take a flier on a guy, then the guy I'd pick is Tyrese Maxey, his splits are no joke, he could get a boost if Harden leaves.

If you want to make a quick buck, my guess is you'll have some opportunity to pick up Chet Holmgren in the offseason and unload at some point next year.

[imbluestreak23]

It's kinda the same as mid 90s basketball. Remember Beckett use to have their "unlisted stars" and "semi-stars" lists.

Unlisted stars:
-Karl Malone
-John Stockton
-David Robinson
-Hakeem
-Barkley
-Drexler
-Chris Webber
-

Semi-Stars
-Juwon Howard
-Antoine Walker
-Joe Smith
-Damon Stoudemire types

The hobby cared about MJ, they kinda cared about Kobe and then really cared about him. They cared about AI for a hot minute. They cared about VC for a hot second. TMac had a nice little stretch, but it was MJ and only MJ until Kobe became Kobe, and until KANG started getting ESPN airtime in HS.

I wonder who is going to be this generation's AI/VC/TMAC. Honestly, I don't even know if I see any of those guys who have a cult following collector base.