Pricing INSANITY

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Because market prices change, duh.

You really don't understand how markets work.

A certain group are willing to pay a certain price before release. Let's call them "the market". Eventually, those people have their supply and any unsold product is available for other people who weren't willing to pay the high initial price. Let's call them the new market. As supply and demand fluctuate and people enter and leave the market for a product, the prices fluctuate as well.

Tough concept, I know.

Remember one principle. For a product that isn't a necessity, no one can force anyone to pay a particular price. The choice is ALWAYS the consumer's.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

Why does BO no longer buy product on the secondary market? Why don't they offer to buy hobby product at release for around 75% of their presale price? If it is actually worth that and selling for that much consistently why wouldn't they want to make that 20-25% profit? That was their profit margin on most products from inception until late 2019. Or could it be they are charging those prices because at the prices they paid they can't lose and don't care if it goes down or they have to sell breaks at a lower cost?

If Panini decided to get more money, like Topps has, I think it would be entertaining if they went to this type of model. Charge BO 80% of whatever price they list a product for presale. If they refuse to presell then be like Topps and charge what you consider market value. Wanna bet what direction presale prices go then?

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

There's a name for your short term memory loss... BO deflection syndrome.

Things I learned today include: asking someone for their side of the story is a deflection.

[ronzo]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Don't forget that the market price can change day to day, week to week, month to month.

The big box retailers, in the old days 5-10 years ago, used to start prices low, then as a product dried up, the replacement costs went up and frequently the big box retailers had to buy product BACK from customers they presold to at a higher price.

Now they've gotten smart. Start high - let the breakers and the rich and the desperate finish buying at the initial high price, THEN drop the price lower as demand decreases. That's how the people in control maximize profits. It doesn't make any business sense to allow all their low presale customers make the profits, the tables have turned now.

So going forward, wax flippers are essentially screwed. Those profits on flipping new wax are gone. The breakers are willing to pay higher presale and on the day of release than you. Singles are worth more when a product first comes out compared to a month later, usually. So thus the premium price to break cases early - the singles sell for higher. There are multiple reasons the market price at the beginning is the highest.

So accept the new reality, and outsmart the big box guys. I try not to buy anything until months later now, as you have stated, those boxes can frequently be had 35-65% cheaper a few months later, as the market value and demand has dropped.

Using your knowledge of players and collector behavior, find those deals when they get cheaper - why are you paying the breaker rate on day 1 when you can pay the steep discount rate several months later or during the offseason.

The rules of the game are constantly changing - adapt or get run over.

Where are these mythical 35-65% cheaper wax prices? I still see 2020 and 2021 products listed for pretty much the same prices they released at. Sure some absolute dud releases have had some significant drops, but for the most part it seems the big 3 are holding firm at their prices.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by ronzo

Where are these mythical 35-65% cheaper wax prices? I still see 2020 and 2021 products listed for pretty much the same prices they released at. Sure some absolute dud releases have had some significant drops, but for the most part it seems the big 3 are holding firm at their prices.

There are plenty of examples. You don't need me to list every single one, though finest flashbacks and topps chrome are good examples in baseball. Not dud releases, actually pretty hot on release and now a fraction of their initial sales price.

The big box retailers also have the benefit of keeping prices high if a product or player gets hot, thus maintaining prices of many products that are similar to release. Thus, they never have to go to the secondary market to find more product, many times they are still slowly trickling out their initial allocation.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Yup - can’t plummet in value when it’s contents are unknown….

I think my main take on the issue is that this is just patently false, especially as others have said in this day and age when you pretty much know which of the best chase cards have been pulled.

You keep saying the value is in the box being unknown but its not. The near exact EV of the contents can easily be derived and is very much known. The ability to liquidate these positions at some point is predicted solely on either (1) the inability of people to do simple math or (2) people that have to much money and just don't care or (3) the straight degens

This would be like sticking it in a poker hand as a 60-40 dog and saying I'm not a dog because the run out is yet to be determined.

As print runs increase, Box prices get jacked up, and contents get watered down group (1) and (3) goes bust fast and quits hobby and you lots of people are going to be racing to the bottom to sell to the remaining subset of group (2)

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by mattglet

Things I learned today include: asking someone for their side of the story is a deflection.

LMAO I spelled it out for you, referencing your previous comments. Do you need hyperlinks to your own posts?

nvm I'll just add deflection to the list of things you don't understand.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Don't forget that the market price can change day to day, week to week, month to month.

The big box retailers, in the old days 5-10 years ago, used to start prices low, then as a product dried up, the replacement costs went up and frequently the big box retailers had to buy product BACK from customers they presold to at a higher price.

Now they've gotten smart. Start high - let the breakers and the rich and the desperate finish buying at the initial high price, THEN drop the price lower as demand decreases. That's how the people in control maximize profits. It doesn't make any business sense to allow all their low presale customers make the profits, the tables have turned now.

So going forward, wax flippers are essentially screwed. Those profits on flipping new wax are gone. The breakers are willing to pay higher presale and on the day of release than you. Singles are worth more when a product first comes out compared to a month later, usually. So thus the premium price to break cases early - the singles sell for higher. There are multiple reasons the market price at the beginning is the highest.

So accept the new reality, and outsmart the big box guys. I try not to buy anything until months later now, as you have stated, those boxes can frequently be had 35-65% cheaper a few months later, as the market value and demand has dropped.

Using your knowledge of players and collector behavior, find those deals when they get cheaper - why are you paying the breaker rate on day 1 when you can pay the steep discount rate several months later or during the offseason.

The rules of the game are constantly changing - adapt or get run over.

They didn't use to start prices low. They started them at prices they thought they could sell product at. Lord forbid a distributor/direct product seller actually sell the product. There weren't huge margins back then and less breaking. They were looking to sell product because if they didn't there was a very good chance it could and would drop to where they couldn't make any money. Now the market has drastically increased on sealed wax. The prices they are paying they know overall they can't lose. There is no incentive for them to price new products at a number that it will sell out.

In terms of trying to make money by buying on ebay or fb or wherever months after release I honestly wouldn't buy anything. I don't know much wax that has increased this year. How many players that weren't dirt cheap like Brock Purdy have increased this year? SGA I guess. Elite players having great seasons or winning titles have gone down. Hurts was the MVP favorite and I've seen cards of his sell recently on ebay for less than I sold them for in 2021.

If you don't run breaks, have some type of connection for buying product cheap, are able to buy singles well below market value, run a bot, the odds of you making anything worth mentioning right now are about as good as finding a needle in haystack. Buying product low at a later date what's that going to do? The only real chance is if Topps prices something like Logofractor well below market and you can buy a ton of it. Although it seems with the account shut downs/bans/customer limit possibly be household limit now that won't be possible either.

I'm not asking for a handout. I'm not a bum. I don't expect to sign a check and be given something that is worth well above what I'm paying for it. I don't expect to instantly sell the moment I get it in the mail or presell it for 4 times what I paid for something. I'm willing to take a risk when there is a realistic chance of upside. The current state seems is very small chance at breakeven to 10% profit and massive chance at a small to a huge loss.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

They didn't use to start prices low. They started them at prices they thought they could sell product at. Lord forbid a distributor/direct product seller actually sell the product. There weren't huge margins back then and less breaking. They were looking to sell product because if they didn't there was a very good chance it could and would drop to where they couldn't make any money. Now the market has drastically increased on sealed wax. The prices they are paying they know overall they can't lose. There is no incentive for them to price new products at a number that it will sell out.

In terms of trying to make money by buying on ebay or fb or wherever months after release I honestly wouldn't buy anything. I don't know much wax that has increased this year. How many players that weren't dirt cheap like Brock Purdy have increased this year? SGA I guess. Elite players having great seasons or winning titles have gone down. Hurts was the MVP favorite and I've seen cards of his sell recently on ebay for less than I sold them for in 2021.

If you don't run breaks, have some type of connection for buying product cheap, are able to buy singles well below market value, run a bot, the odds of you making anything worth mentioning right now are about as good as finding a needle in haystack. Buying product low at a later date what's that going to do? The only real chance is if Topps prices something like Logofractor well below market and you can buy a ton of it. Although it seems with the account shut downs/bans/customer limit possibly be household limit now that won't be possible either.

I'm not asking for a handout. I'm not a bum. I don't expect to sign a check and be given something that is worth well above what I'm paying for it. I don't expect to instantly sell the moment I get it in the mail or presell it for 4 times what I paid for something. I'm willing to take a risk when there is a realistic chance of upside. The current state seems is very small chance at breakeven to 10% profit and massive chance at a small to a huge loss.

You just have to be savy, have patience and have some luck. Some products take years to mature, but when they do you can make some good money.

Like I said, the instant flipping days are gone.

But opportunities like 2013-14 basketball come up every once in a while, you just never know. As bad as 2021 baseball is, maybe somebody does get super hot and you are getting topps chrome at less than $100/box. I know it's still not cheap like the old days, but maybe Dylan Carlson or Alec Bohm goes on a tear and has an MVP like season or multiple MVP seasons in the future. 2021 topps chrome wax could theoretically get hot again and you could double your money, for example. I'm not saying it will happen, but you know what I mean.

Sometimes, the products that no one wants today become the products that everyone wants tomorrow.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You just have to be savy, have patience and have some luck. Some products take years to mature, but when they do you can make some good money.

Like I said, the instant flipping days are gone.

But opportunities like 2013-14 basketball come up every once in a while, you just never know. As bad as 2021 baseball is, maybe somebody does get super hot and you are getting topps chrome at less than $100/box. I know it's still not cheap like the old days, but maybe Dylan Carlson or Alec Bohm goes on a tear and has an MVP like season or multiple MVP seasons in the future. 2021 topps chrome wax could theoretically get hot again and you could double your money, for example. I'm not saying it will happen, but you know what I mean.

Sometimes, the products that no one wants today become the products that everyone wants tomorrow.

Everything you stated was true in the past based on major player as a catalyst, less products per year, less production, better box guarantees, better checklists, and way lower buy in costs. A major catalyst can occur, but the rest are unlikely to change for the better. You're also not factoring in that barely anyone held sealed wax until 2020. Most products 2018 classes and earlier have much less still sealed available compared to all the years after. Countless products from 10+ years ago have dried up. There will be almost nothing from the last 3 years with production over 25k that will be hard to find 10 years from now.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Everything you stated was true in the past based on major player as a catalyst, less products per year, less production, better box guarantees, better checklists, and way lower buy in costs. A major catalyst can occur, but the rest are unlikely to change for the better. You're also not factoring in that barely anyone held sealed wax until 2020. Most products 2018 classes and earlier have much less still sealed available compared to all the years after. Countless products from 10+ years ago have dried up. There will be almost nothing from the last 3 years with production over 25k that will be hard to find 10 years from now.

Still doesn't mean you can't make money investing in boxes in the hobby for the future. Just because something is more plentiful doesn't mean it can't go up in price. If there are more collectors in the future, the demand can meet up to the supply.

You just need to put in more WORK and get luckier, that is all.

Like i've said for the millionth time, the easy wax flips are DONE. GONE. KABLOOEY. I encourage the new generation of wax flippers to leave the hobby. I want them all gone.

Go find another speculative collectible if you don't like the current rules. And i'm not directing that towards you, but to those that drove all the wax prices up on everybody.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

Which wax is collectible is subjective, just like your claim that only pre-1984 Topps wax is worth collecting. And that vintage wax you're placing on a pedestal was also junk at one time or those boxes of '79 OPC hockey wouldn't have sat at the corner store forever.

Originally Posted by mattglet

Which boxes and which corner store?

Which would you rather spend $700 on:
1. 15 Boggs AND 15 Gwynn AND 15 Sandberg
2. One box of 1983 Topps, BBCE wrapped.

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

So which is it? You care about value or you don't?



You have no idea on here who's a wax investor versus a wax collector.

What's amusing is that you continually misunderstand the concept of a collectible. Collecting is not about cold hard logic. If it was, people would not be collecting all the junk that they do.

Originally Posted by mattglet

Ah yes, the ol' lack-of-context quoting, and just because the two quotes have the same word then everything must mean the same thing.

But keep on doing what you're doing. It's fine. And also transparent.

Originally Posted by mattglet

Thanks for the outline. So what's your rebuttal to anything I've (actually) said?

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

There's a name for your short term memory loss... BO deflection syndrome.

Originally Posted by mattglet

Things I learned today include: asking someone for their side of the story is a deflection.

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

LMAO I spelled it out for you, referencing your previous comments. Do you need hyperlinks to your own posts?

nvm I'll just add deflection to the list of things you don't understand.

What I don't understand is what you think I don't understand. You keep talking about collectibles for some reason, and I'm talking about people saying that the value of their wax will only appreciate.

The things you are refuting:
- that the value of wax should be dependent solely on the number of unpulled hits
---- Solely, no. But it should be the primary factor, yes. What else would you use to calculate value?

- that all wax bought and sold for a return will ultimately be opened (the hot potato argument)
---- I never said it will all be opened, not sure where you got that from. What I did say is box flippers - sorry... "investors" - pump their wax based on odds of pulling things that don't exist.

- that no wax from 2020 onward will ever have value
---- I never said "never have value". I said it won't retain value. Those are two very different things (zero vs. ROI).

- that a "true collectible" is a thing you know how to define
---- I never tried to define it, and I don't care to.

- that an "actual collector" is someone you know how to define
---- I never tried to define it, and I don't care to.

You keep trying to spin this weird narrative about collectibles to protect unopened wax for some reason. The topic is wax investment, and calculating actual value of said wax over time. I'm saying modern and ultra-modern wax is a garbage investment, and you are failing to dispute otherwise.

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by mattglet

What I don't understand is what you think I don't understand. You keep talking about collectibles for some reason, and I'm talking about people saying that the value of their wax will only appreciate.

Because you can't divorce wax from its status as a pop culture collectible. Items can appreciate in value solely because they are in their original packaging. Look at sealed vintage computer games for example. The discs inside are most likely unplayable yet sealed can still sell for thousands.

Originally Posted by mattglet

The things you are refuting:
- that the value of wax should be dependent solely on the number of unpulled hits
---- Solely, no. But it should be the primary factor, yes. What else would you use to calculate value?

In addition to card and packaging design, as I mentioned the condition of the box. This won't matter for newer wax but as time passes those boxes that stay mint will get a premium just for their exterior condition. If a buyer isn't buying to open, that's the only thing they can judge.

Originally Posted by mattglet

- that all wax bought and sold for a return will ultimately be opened (the hot potato argument)
---- I never said it will all be opened, not sure where you got that from. What I did say is box flippers - sorry... "investors" - pump their wax based on odds of pulling things that don't exist.

I'm not fond of flippers and pumpers either so feel free to call them whatever.

Originally Posted by mattglet

- that no wax from 2020 onward will ever have value
---- I never said "never have value". I said it won't retain value. Those are two very different things (zero vs. ROI).

Fine but I still think you're too down on pandemic era wax. Of course vintage wins hand down but who knows... maybe 2020-22 wax will be known as the last hurrah from the pre-Fanatics meltdown.

Originally Posted by mattglet

- that a "true collectible" is a thing you know how to define
---- I never tried to define it, and I don't care to.

- that an "actual collector" is someone you know how to define
---- I never tried to define it, and I don't care to.

You keep trying to spin this weird narrative about collectibles to protect unopened wax for some reason. The topic is wax investment, and calculating actual value of said wax over time. I'm saying modern and ultra-modern wax is a garbage investment, and you are failing to dispute otherwise.

Believe it or not but I have too little wax "investment quality" or otherwise to protect anything. I'm just suggesting some reasons why wax is collectible regardless of the exact cards inside.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

Because you can't divorce wax from its status as a pop culture collectible. Items can appreciate in value solely because they are in their original packaging. Look at sealed vintage computer games for example. The discs inside are most likely unplayable yet sealed can still sell for thousands.



In addition to card and packaging design, as I mentioned the condition of the box. This won't matter for newer wax but as time passes those boxes that stay mint will get a premium just for their exterior condition. If a buyer isn't buying to open, that's the only thing they can judge.

Totally cool, I can get on board with this reasoning (and 100% agree) especially as it relates to wax as Collectibles. A perfect example is J's collection that he shows off in the investment wax thread; he seems to be the person who sincerely appreciates the packaging as the art and his stuff is awesome. Sure he does educate/remind that his 1979 OPC Hockey is important because of the Gretzky rookie but it seems to be clear to me that piece of information is a secondary focus as opposed to...

...what I obviously get hung up is on the people (like some of the participants in the investment wax thread) who explicitly list the POSSIBILITY of what the contents MIGHT be in the box and use that as the primary focus to prop up their value. The full intent of the purchase, the photo, the captions... all with the mindset that it's an infallible investment. This is where the pricing insanity lives in the world of wax and is completely smoke and mirrors in my opinion because of previously stated reasons.

[oldgoldy97]

When do PAC-n-MATT get together for lunch?

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by mattglet

Totally cool, I can get on board with this reasoning (and 100% agree) especially as it relates to wax as Collectibles. A perfect example is J's collection that he shows off in the investment wax thread; he seems to be the person who sincerely appreciates the packaging as the art and his stuff is awesome. Sure he does educate/remind that his 1979 OPC Hockey is important because of the Gretzky rookie but it seems to be clear to me that piece of information is a secondary focus as opposed to...

...what I obviously get hung up is on the people (like some of the participants in the investment wax thread) who explicitly list the POSSIBILITY of what the contents MIGHT be in the box and use that as the primary focus to prop up their value. The full intent of the purchase, the photo, the captions... all with the mindset that it's an infallible investment. This is where the pricing insanity lives in the world of wax and is completely smoke and mirrors in my opinion because of previously stated reasons.

I see that as wishful thinking so I really can't begrudge it, but of course you need a lot more than a couple boxes to hit anything so I don't think a mishmash of all different products is the best strategy.

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

When do PAC-n-MATT get together for lunch?

lol everyone's invited to comiserate on the sad state of the Fanopoly era

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

When do PAC-n-MATT get together for lunch?

I haven't had good chinese in a while.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by mattglet

What I don't understand is what you think I don't understand. You keep talking about collectibles for some reason, and I'm talking about people saying that the value of their wax will only appreciate.

The things you are refuting:
- that the value of wax should be dependent solely on the number of unpulled hits
---- Solely, no. But it should be the primary factor, yes. What else would you use to calculate value?

- that all wax bought and sold for a return will ultimately be opened (the hot potato argument)
---- I never said it will all be opened, not sure where you got that from. What I did say is box flippers - sorry... "investors" - pump their wax based on odds of pulling things that don't exist.

- that no wax from 2020 onward will ever have value
---- I never said "never have value". I said it won't retain value. Those are two very different things (zero vs. ROI).

- that a "true collectible" is a thing you know how to define
---- I never tried to define it, and I don't care to.

- that an "actual collector" is someone you know how to define
---- I never tried to define it, and I don't care to.

You keep trying to spin this weird narrative about collectibles to protect unopened wax for some reason. The topic is wax investment, and calculating actual value of said wax over time. I'm saying modern and ultra-modern wax is a garbage investment, and you are failing to dispute otherwise.

mg,
My serious question is ….. do you have a “thing” against Wax - the Product, or some / most / all Sealed Wax Collectors? It’s gotta’ be one of the two, if not both …. and I’m curious as to why??

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

mg,
My serious question is ….. do you have a “thing” against Wax - the Product, or some / most / all Sealed Wax Collectors? It’s gotta’ be one of the two, if not both …. and I’m curious as to why??

I appreciate the question. However, I believe I've outlined both my opinion and facts related to the subject throughout this thread. I'd be happy to answer any specific questions you have about anything I've said here.

[POKTRITON]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Bowman Draft is a different beast. The quality of Draft Class and International signings make a big impact. With Bowman Chrome, there has been well over 200 cases broken on Blez baseball in the last 3 weeks. They will likely do the same business. In Houdini's break, the 10 case lightning draft just ended and the prices went silly mainly due to the 100 case reservations.

I think it’s incredible That Blez and others (Platinum,Backyard etc.) broke or will break so many cases of Bowman. These guys have little to no knowledge of the Bowman products or prospects in general.

[tonedef2oo8]

Originally Posted by RedLabelRecords

Yea. I’m done with the hobby and with this website

And yet you’re still making topics.

[Middies31985]

Originally Posted by POKTRITON

I think it’s incredible That Blez and others (Platinum,Backyard etc.) broke or will break so many cases of Bowman. These guys have little to no knowledge of the Bowman products or prospects in general.

I've been watching and participating in a few Blez breaks because their prices for Guardians spots were pretty good.

But it is frustrating that they do not know any of the prospects. There is one guy I like watching break. I think he is a genuine guy who loves baseball.

The main guys that yell and scream though annoy the hell out of me. Bought into a break and as soon as I saw who was breaking I put it on mute.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

[tonedef2oo8]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

There are plenty of examples. You don't need me to list every single one

No he don’t need every single one, however you haven’t named any. So why don’t you grab us 5 names real fast since it’s super easy.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by tonedef2oo8

No he don’t need every single one, however you haven’t named any. So why don’t you grab us 5 names real fast since it’s super easy.

I mentioned topps chrome and finest flashbacks - both products in 2020 and 2021 are for sale at less than half for what they were selling for at peak.

[majestik101]

Originally Posted by RedLabelRecords

Yea. I’m done with the hobby and with this website

[ThoseBackPages]

to THE MOON!