📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[Sticks33]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Even in a bear stock market there are a few stocks that go up.

It doesn’t mean the market is healthy.

A bear market doesn’t mean the stock market is UNhealthy. It’s cyclical.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Brazenways

Subjective measurements on the culturally relevant part, maybe American based I dunno.

Ohtani has more instagram followers & more US eBay sales (nearly double quantity of sales over the past three years alone, as well as higher total volume $). Ohtanis jersey release was the greatest fanatics ever had in a 2-day period (i get it mahomes hasn't had a team change yet).

Definitely American based, as that's the top driver of the sports card market, with maybe some exception for Basketball.

However, 123MM people watched Mahomes walk off Super Bowl win a few months ago. 9.1MM people watched the World Series last year (Which Ohtani wasn't even in).

But again... I won't argue that Ohtani isn't the most marketable guy right now in baseball. The only real concern about him is that he has *yet* to complete a career resume that stands the test of time. No obvious milestones like 60 HRs, .400 average, or anything else you don't need to explain. He'll have a hard time getting to 500 HRs, and will never touch 3000 hits. No championships.

Now that last one could change really quickly here with the Dodgers. If he wins one, and better yet, comes back another year and pitches and hits in the WS, that's when he truly has a chance to have a lasting impact.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Sticks33

A bear market doesn’t mean the stock market is UNhealthy. It’s cyclical.

The sports card market is not cyclical. Inflation however can be.

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Do you know who else nobody likes? People who put words in other people's mouths like you just tried to do.

Ohtani is becoming culturally relevant. Not as much as Mahomes, but one of the best players in baseball coming to one of the top franchises in the game has a chance to be special if he can win. Maybe this year when he makes the playoffs for the first time it'll increase his status to get him up on that next tier.

you clearly have no idea what you are talking about. I'm out of this thread. Good luck all.

[anusinha]

Problem with baseball is that no one outside of baseball fans know who these guys are. My wife knows Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but has no idea who Trout, Acuna, Judge, etc… are. That’s an overall baseball marketability problem.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by anusinha

Problem with baseball is that no one outside of baseball fans know who these guys are. My wife knows Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but has no idea who Trout, Acuna, Judge, etc… are. That’s an overall baseball marketability problem.

Wait, so chicks DON’T dig the long ball?

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Wait, so chicks DON’T dig the long ball?

Chicks (and dudes) who are baseball fans do, but baseball is losing cultural relevance in the US. If you want to get onto that MJ, Tiger, Mahomes level of popularity, you cant just be a good baseball player.

[Zedlaw]

Comparing Mahomes to Ohtani is like comparing a process engineer to an inventor. One optimizes within set constraints while the other simply removes them.

[Sticks33]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The sports card market is not cyclical. Inflation however can be.

You were referring to the stock market. Just trying to clear up incorrect information.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Bcr

you clearly have no idea what you are talking about. I'm out of this thread. Good luck all.

You clearly have no idea of my track record profiting off of sports cards and collectibles.

Good riddance.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Zedlaw

Comparing Mahomes to Ohtani is like comparing a process engineer to an inventor. One optimizes within set constraints while the other simply removes them.

Well at 28 Mahomes has processed his way into 3 Super Bowl MVPs, while Ohtani, about to be 30, has yet to invent a playoff appearance.

But he better find a way to remove some restraints: 30 is typically the age when modern baseball players have passed their peaks and begin to regress, while NFL QBs have been peaking around their mid-30s in this era (Manning and Rodgers both won MVPs at age 37, Brady at age 40)

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by anusinha

Problem with baseball is that no one outside of baseball fans know who these guys are. My wife knows Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but has no idea who Trout, Acuna, Judge, etc… are. That’s an overall baseball marketability problem.

Absolutely is.

Here's a pretty clunky graph showing how baseball viewership is dying and pales in comparison to the NFL.

[6celtics33]

Baseball is the greatest game in the world. If it’s losing popularity it’s more likely an us problem and should be a warning sign to our iq and attention span.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by 6celtics33

Baseball is the greatest game in the world. If it’s losing popularity it’s more likely an us problem and should be a warning sign to our iq and attention span.

Good point. Look at the evolution of the NFL and NBA the last 25 years. Speed up the pace, shorten game time, score more, score faster. You see a parallel in sports cards too. One card boxes. Hits only products. Flipping five figure cards a month later. Recipe for disaster.

[pcptrade]

Indeed, for adults aged 18-29, the rankings for most popular sports to watch in the Washington Post poll were as follows: football (20%), basketball (17%), competitive video gaming (14%), soccer (13%), baseball and auto racing (7%).

And finally, in an era in which there are so many different forms of entertainment vying for the attention, it won’t get any easier to connect those even younger.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/27/sport...ntl/index.html

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by tjforce

"A declining market" is a normal market for cards.

For about 30 years the hobby followed a typical cycle: Cards got released, 99% of them dropped in price, the top <1% or so went much higher. Then the pandemic bubble hit and EVERYTHING went up in value. That was not normal.

Now we're back in the normal phase where these are collectables, and most of them will go down in value. But still, if you can find that <1%, you can do well. The only issue is that you won't find that <1% by buying what IG clowns are selling you.

It is good to know the sports card market index trend because it gives you an idea of the current state of the market. However, unlike the stock market, we do not collect or invest in the index. We collect/invest in individual cards. Lets say you have been chasing a card that rarely shows up for sale and one finally shows up after a long time. Are you going to look at the market index and say I am going to hold off and wait a little longer because the index trend shows that we are in a correction/declining phase?

[hermanotarjeta]

Get ready to be powelled today!

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

It is good to know the sports card market index trend because it gives you an idea of the current state of the market. However, unlike the stock market, we do not collect or invest in the index. We collect/invest in individual cards. Lets say you have been chasing a card that rarely shows up for sale and one finally shows up after a long time. Are you going to look at the market index and say I am going to hold off and wait a little longer because the index trend shows that we are in a correction/declining phase?

I'll keep saying it: It's a procurement game.

Even back 30 years ago it was. If you bought a typical raw Michael Jordan 1992 Beam Team, you probably paid $100 and after inflation, probably aren't very far ahead.

Now, if you managed to find a gem mint copy (good luck looking for that at your lcs or your in friends collection), and kept it in perfect shape long enough to grade it, then you have a $5,000+ card now.

[boxbuster7]

don't think I agree with that especially in the day and age of kurts card care - psa 10 is slowly losing its deathgrip on the hobby

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I'll keep saying it: It's a procurement game.

Even back 30 years ago it was. If you bought a typical raw Michael Jordan 1992 Beam Team, you probably paid $100 and after inflation, probably aren't very far ahead.

Now, if you managed to find a gem mint copy (good luck looking for that at your lcs or your in friends collection), and kept it in perfect shape long enough to grade it, then you have a $5,000+ card now.

One way to go about it. Sure.

Or if you grabbed something a little more rare. Man I used to watch PMGs and Exquisite Autos all day every day. 10 years ago was a nice time.

The question is, what Panini sets will see that kind of rise?

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

don't think I agree with that especially in the day and age of kurts card care - psa 10 is slowly losing its deathgrip on the hobby

I agree. We will see people pay less and less for modern 10s.

Probably gets down to 1.5 times a 9 at some point. People paying 3 times right for Prizm silver Rookies. Ah ah

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Indeed, for adults aged 18-29, the rankings for most popular sports to watch in the Washington Post poll were as follows: football (20%), basketball (17%), competitive video gaming (14%), soccer (13%), baseball and auto racing (7%).

And finally, in an era in which there are so many different forms of entertainment vying for the attention, it won’t get any easier to connect those even younger.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/27/sport...ntl/index.html

The NFL, with their constant commercials and advertisements between play, is screwed long term with younger generations:

2024:

NFL games typically last a little over three hours in length, but how much time is action actually occurring? Estimates suggest there are between 15 and 20 minutes of live action in an individual NFL game, which sees roughly 100 plays in total. This is why you can watch an entire game after it’s played in about 30 minutes once commercials and replays are cut out.

https://sportsnaut.com/how-long-are-football-games/

People who grew up on short TikTok videos aren't going to want to sit through 3 hours of mostly non-action.

At least the NBA has a lot more action -- 48 minutes of regulation with games lasting 2-2.5 hours on average. Too bad it's largely based around chucking 3 pointers and pick and rolls.

MLB has shortened games to 2.5 hours with the pitch clock. Even though only 24 balls are put in play per game, you at least have 300 pitches being thrown per game.

[jacksonjj]

It's always been baffling to me to watch/read/hear discussions about how popular sports are relative to other sports. What a waste of time.

Why should individual fans care if baseball is losing popularity? So what. Can't we just enjoy what we like without being pressured to popularize something?

It is what it is. I'm tired of manufactured excitement. If baseball is losing popularity why's that my problem? I love baseball. I could care less if my neighbors love baseball.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by drobfan8

One way to go about it. Sure.

Or if you grabbed something a little more rare. Man I used to watch PMGs and Exquisite Autos all day every day. 10 years ago was a nice time.

The question is, what Panini sets will see that kind of rise?



I agree. We will see people pay less and less for modern 10s.

Probably gets down to 1.5 times a 9 at some point. People paying 3 times right for Prizm silver Rookies. Ah ah

And that's the thing.. there WILL be sets from the Panini era that collectors go crazy for down the road.

2012 Prizm Gold is already one of them. Prizm Blacks/Nebulas, and rookie Golds will be grail cards as well. I'm quite sure of it. NTs will be the standard for high end RPAs the way Exquisite was in the 00s.

After that there is room for debate and speculation about what will really matter. What's interesting this time around is that I feel like you have a few very unique buckets of hobby participants: Collectors (same as before), Investors (a little different but we've always had dealers in it for the money only), and now your Group Breakers/Gamblers + Influencers. And that last
group is currently driving sets like Kaboom and other stuff. But will that matter 20 years from now?

[boxbuster7]

If I could short Kabooms I'd throw my life savings on it

[nabzy28]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

If I could short Kabooms I'd throw my life savings on it

2nd'd, 3rd'd and 4th'd. These people weren't around for the Fleer bankruptcy...