Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I wouldn't take that as being argumentative.

You just described two methods that involve analysis as causation in the eventual conclusion. He's consistently ignored data that's counter to his narrative and failed to conduct other forms of analysis to see if his conclusion is repeatable or if it has biases.

Those aren't characteristics of a "stat head."

Arthur

Those are characteristics of a sh*t head.

[jbruner23]

Why do positive/normal participants in this thread continue to engage with this guy? It's soiling the entire thread. If his posts get no replies there's at least a chance he'll go be miserable elsewhere.

[Lester Hayes]

edit: sorry wrong thread!

[Melagoo]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Moving back to the Rogers Centre at the end of the month will likely be the death knell for the Triple Crown shot. Still very possible but it's going to be a whole lot harder now. He'll still be the best hitter in the AL but the rate at which he's racking up HRs and especially RBIs will be noticeably lower. BA too. The minor league ballparks were pumping em all. His home/away splits were some of the most stark in baseball. So far this season:

Home(Minor league parks): .363, 20 HRs, 47 RBIs
Away(Major league parks): .296, 11 HRs, 31 RBIs

... Bladdy will be perfectly happy at the Rogers Centre ... I think he'll do fine there ... as will everyone else ... temporary homes were not good ... having a solid place like the Rogers Centre will give them more confidence ...

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Melagoo

... Bladdy will be perfectly happy at the Rogers Centre ... I think he'll do fine there ... as will everyone else ... temporary homes were not good ... having a solid place like the Rogers Centre will give them more confidence ...

Just let my hometown Red Sox finish playing them in Buffalo, first


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[DontToewsMeBro]

Originally Posted by pewe

Just let my hometown Red Sox finish playing them in Buffalo, first


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Red Sox fans are absolute dweebs

Only ones worse are Yankee fans

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by Melagoo

... Bladdy will be perfectly happy at the SkyDome ... I think he'll do fine there ... as will everyone else ... temporary homes were not good ... having a solid place like the SkyDome will give them more confidence ...

Fixed it for you.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by DontToewsMeBro

Red Sox fans are absolute dweebs

Only ones worse are Yankee fans

Well spotted sir, you caught me!


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[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

cant let the stat-heads get to ya

You’re right. I might need to print that phrase out and post it to my wall.


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[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Triple B

Those are characteristics of a sh*t head.

*chef's kiss*

Originally Posted by eye4talent

You know I don’t value your opinion in the least.

You're lying to yourself

And yes, I did declare that I wouldn’t interact with you anymore.

awwww

Originally Posted by HarryLime

He doesn't count as a stat head. Stat heads start out by evaluating the data and then having the data arrive at a conclusion. That's different than having a bad take and then digging to find stats that you can misinterpret to "prove" your narrative.

Or I'm just looking at two simple sets of numbers and the fact of his home games being in Minor League parks and making a simple, blindly obvious conclusion. 350 pts better OPS at home and his two home Minor League parks being at the top of the most hitter friendly parks this season.

Ya'll are getting too uppity over Guerrero moving to a park that won't pump his numbers as much. Deal with it. If Guerrero's home OPS in the last two months of the season at Rogers is within 30 pts of his 1.276 OPS thus far in the little league parks, I'll give away a US1 Update Gold to someone at random from this thread

[pewe]

Originally Posted by BBases31

If Guerrero's home OPS in the last two months of the season at Rogers is within 30 pts of his 1.276 OPS thus far in the little league parks, I'll give away a US1 Update Gold to someone at random from this thread

How will you isolate park effect vs. reversion to mean vs. pitchers getting better at exploiting weaknesses (that he hasn’t yet adjusted for… just look at his May and July vs. other months… these cat/mouse games go in cycles)?

Chances are high that his OPS will be lower at Rogers for reasons other than the field… and it won’t really prove much about the park move.

I continue to believe the only real issue might be 2-3 HR turning into doubles. And I think we can isolate that in the data when he does make the move.

Or what other part of his batting performance do you think gains benefit from Buffalo? Maybe I’m not thinking of something?


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[Triple B]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Or I'm just looking at two simple sets of numbers and the fact of his home games being in Minor League parks and making a simple, blindly obvious conclusion. 350 pts better OPS at home and his two home Minor League parks being at the top of the most hitter friendly parks this season.

Ya'll are getting too uppity over Guerrero moving to a park that won't pump his numbers as much. Deal with it. If Guerrero's home OPS in the last two months of the season at Rogers is within 30 pts of his 1.276 OPS thus far in the little league parks, I'll give away a US1 Update Gold to someone at random from this thread

Ignore me and everyone else completely. Answer pewe’s questions and enlighten us all in one shot.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by pewe

How will you isolate park effect vs. reversion to mean vs. pitchers getting better at exploiting weaknesses (that he hasn’t yet adjusted for… just look at his May and July vs. other months… these cat/mouse games go in cycles)?

Chances are high that his OPS will be lower at Rogers for reasons other than the field… and it won’t really prove much about the park move.

I continue to believe the only real issue might be 2-3 HR turning into doubles. And I think we can isolate that in the data when he does make the move.

Or what other part of his batting performance do you think gains benefit from Buffalo? Maybe I’m not thinking of something?

You're missing the forest for the trees. It's very, very simple. If Trevor Story got traded tomorrow to the Jays, I'd tell you that you can expect a significant drop in home OPS because he's now at Rogers instead of Coors. Not a single person, ever, would argue with that statement. It's the exact same situation. But in a place where some people have their life identities tied into the cards they hold, no one wants to hear it and people want to argue that 2+2 does not equal 4

Everyone in here thinks it's all the same, doesn't matter. Park doesn't matter. Or the park factors are wrong, etc, etc. I've put my money where my mouth is. Upping it to giving away 2 US1 Update Golds if he comes within 30 pts of his Minor League park OPS(1.276) thus far this year for his home OPS over August and September. Not much more to say on this topic and it's beating a dead horse at this point

[BAHoopla]

Originally Posted by BBases31

You're missing the forest for the trees. It's very, very simple. If Trevor Story got traded tomorrow to the Jays, I'd tell you that you can expect a significant drop in home OPS because he's now at Rogers instead of Coors. Not a single person, ever, would argue with that statement. It's the exact same situation. But in a place where some people have their life identities tied into the cards they hold, no one wants to hear it and people want to argue that 2+2 does not equal 4

Everyone in here thinks it's all the same, doesn't matter. Park doesn't matter. Or the park factors are wrong, etc, etc. I've put my money where my mouth is. Upping it to giving away 2 US1 Update Golds if he comes within 30 pts of his Minor League park OPS(1.276) thus far this year for his home OPS over August and September. Not much more to say on this topic and it's beating a dead horse at this point

I see your points but believe Guerrero will surprise you so hopefully the 2 golds come my way ;-)

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Not much more to say on this topic and it's beating a dead horse at this point

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by BBases31

You're missing the forest for the trees. It's very, very simple. If Trevor Story got traded tomorrow to the Jays, I'd tell you that you can expect a significant drop in home OPS because he's now at Rogers instead of Coors. Not a single person, ever, would argue with that statement. It's the exact same situation. But in a place where some people have their life identities tied into the cards they hold, no one wants to hear it and people want to argue that 2+2 does not equal 4

Everyone in here thinks it's all the same, doesn't matter. Park doesn't matter. Or the park factors are wrong, etc, etc. I've put my money where my mouth is. Upping it to giving away 2 US1 Update Golds if he comes within 30 pts of his Minor League park OPS(1.276) thus far this year for his home OPS over August and September. Not much more to say on this topic and it's beating a dead horse at this point

What if I agree with you? Can I still claim one if he somehow achieves that?

Probably still a 3-5 percent chance just based upon variance.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

What if I agree with you? Can I still claim one if he somehow achieves that?

I'll give them away at random to someone who's posted in this thread if it happens.

Probably still a 3-5 percent chance just based upon variance.

Yep, definitely possible especially with only a 2 month window.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by BBases31

You're missing the forest for the trees. It's very, very simple. If Trevor Story got traded tomorrow to the Jays, I'd tell you that you can expect a significant drop in home OPS because he's now at Rogers instead of Coors. Not a single person, ever, would argue with that statement. It's the exact same situation.

I realize you feel we are beating a dead horse, but my arm is still fresh, and the horse is still bouncing with every whack.

All I'm trying to suss out is what benefits we think he got from Buffalo. Your analogy to Tevor Story is an example of where we recognize several things that benefit batters from Coors, and thus when they bat in other locations they tend to have muted numbers.

Benefits of Coors? Mostly the lower atmospheric pressure... which results in:
-- balls carry further / faster (less drag) so more HR, and more line drives that the field can't get to
-- fielders may lose a step because of more limited O2, thus balls in play are more likely to sneak by players
-- pitchers find their "stuff" moves less (drag on stiches is more modest) and thus batters can handle it better

Benefits from Buffalo vs. Rogers Centre? https://www.milb.com/news/toolshed-w...-for-bats-arms
-- slightly shorter HR distance vs. Rogers: down the lines -3', right center -8', center +3', left center -4'
-- beneficial wind to left field (prevailing wind off the lake blows right to left), harms hits to right
-- tight foul field, means more balls hit foul end up in the stands vs. becoming outs

Are there other benefits?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by pewe

I realize you feel we are beating a dead horse, but my arm is still fresh, and the horse is still bouncing with every whack.

All I'm trying to suss out is what benefits we think he got from Buffalo. Your analogy to Tevor Story is an example of where we recognize several things that benefit batters from Coors, and thus when they bat in other locations they tend to have muted numbers.

Benefits of Coors? Mostly the lower atmospheric pressure... which results in:
-- balls carry further / faster (less drag) so more HR, and more line drives that the field can't get to
-- fielders may lose a step because of more limited O2, thus balls in play are more likely to sneak by players
-- pitchers find their "stuff" moves less (drag on stiches is more modest) and thus batters can handle it better

Benefits from Buffalo vs. Rogers Centre? https://www.milb.com/news/toolshed-w...-for-bats-arms
-- slightly shorter HR distance vs. Rogers: down the lines -3', right center -8', center +3', left center -4'
-- beneficial wind to left field (prevailing wind off the lake blows right to left), harms hits to right
-- tight foul field, means more balls hit foul end up in the stands vs. becoming outs

Are there other benefits?

Unfortunately with parks, the answers are not always simple. Parks with similar looking dimensions can vary widely from hitter to pitch friendly. As we also usually only view dimensions through the lens of the corner, left/right center, and center distances, alot of nuances are missed. As an example, Kauffman is 330, 385, 410. Busch Stadium is 335, 375, 400. Kauffman is hitter friendly and Busch is about the worst or second worst hitter's park in the league.

And there are many common misconceptions such as shorter fences automatically equals more hitter friendly. As an example, Kansas City has long fences and is one of the harder parks in baseball to hit a HR in but it's a hitter's park because of how much it juices singles and doubles.

And as an example here of the misconceptions, you missed the biggest reason why Coors is so hitter friendly and that's because of the size of the outfield being by far the largest in baseball allowing more balls to drop in for hits.

All winds are also not equal and parks have unique characteristics. In the Rangers old park for example, when the wind was blowing in from right field, it actually juiced HRs because of the design of the stadium created a wind vortex/tunnel(maybe not the right word here) effect that actually turned the wind around in front of home plate and launched balls to right. A 7 MPH wind at Wrigley is a universe different from a 7 MPH wind in any other park as another example. You would never know that just by doing a casual glance at wind speed/direction.

I could go on for pages on this stuff but suffice it to say, despite how counterintuitive it seems, a casual analysis of fences at 3 distance points or the wind is not going to give you an answer on how much a stadium will juice/reduce offense. ESPN's park factors are a good guide, but not perfect. Your best bet is to use Savant and get a wOBA-xwOBA at that specific park. That strips out the park itself and the number at the Jays parks this year is way above league average

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by pewe

I realize you feel we are beating a dead horse, but my arm is still fresh, and the horse is still bouncing with every whack.

All I'm trying to suss out is what benefits we think he got from Buffalo. Your analogy to Tevor Story is an example of where we recognize several things that benefit batters from Coors, and thus when they bat in other locations they tend to have muted numbers.

Benefits of Coors? Mostly the lower atmospheric pressure... which results in:
-- balls carry further / faster (less drag) so more HR, and more line drives that the field can't get to
-- fielders may lose a step because of more limited O2, thus balls in play are more likely to sneak by players
-- pitchers find their "stuff" moves less (drag on stiches is more modest) and thus batters can handle it better

Benefits from Buffalo vs. Rogers Centre? https://www.milb.com/news/toolshed-w...-for-bats-arms
-- slightly shorter HR distance vs. Rogers: down the lines -3', right center -8', center +3', left center -4'
-- beneficial wind to left field (prevailing wind off the lake blows right to left), harms hits to right
-- tight foul field, means more balls hit foul end up in the stands vs. becoming outs

Are there other benefits?

I'm not a fan of injecting unmeasurable aspects into this type of analysis but I think, after 17 years off stats and people talking about the Coors effect, I think there's a psychological difference between the two. Pitchers expect to get lit up or it could at least enter their mindset if things start bad. "Here we go again. Effin Coors."

The opposite could be true as well, providing batters with increased confidence at the plate.

It takes years for park factors to normalize. We have that data on Coors, we don't on wherever the Jays play. So, for the third time I'll mention small sample size.

Arthur

[towerymt]

Potential park factors for the three Blue Jays home fields, from THE BAT X (Derek Carty): https://www.pitcherlist.com/the-dunedin-blue-jays/

[eye4talent]

I need a Vlad fix!

Between the all-star break and a couple of rainouts, it’s been a little choppy the past week.

Not that he hasn’t been entertaining when he’s taken the field: including the all-star game, he’s hit four bombs in five games. But I’d love to see him push that average back toward .340 and bump his OPS above 1.100 again.


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[ThoseBackPages]

i had forgotten that he was a late edition to 2019 Topps Finest, leading to no refractors of his RC being made

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by BBases31

You're missing the forest for the trees. It's very, very simple. If Trevor Story got traded tomorrow to the Jays, I'd tell you that you can expect a significant drop in home OPS because he's now at Rogers instead of Coors. Not a single person, ever, would argue with that statement. It's the exact same situation. But in a place where some people have their life identities tied into the cards they hold, no one wants to hear it and people want to argue that 2+2 does not equal 4

Everyone in here thinks it's all the same, doesn't matter. Park doesn't matter. Or the park factors are wrong, etc, etc. I've put my money where my mouth is. Upping it to giving away 2 US1 Update Golds if he comes within 30 pts of his Minor League park OPS(1.276) thus far this year for his home OPS over August and September. Not much more to say on this topic and it's beating a dead horse at this point

I have one better for you…keep your gold Vlads. If you’re wrong (again), you NEVER post in this thread again and I will send you a Vlad RC with a value of $500 of my choice from my own PC.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Triple B

I have one better for you…keep your gold Vlads. If you’re wrong (again), you NEVER post in this thread again and I will send you a Vlad RC with a value of $500 of my choice from my own PC.

Hard no on that one buddy