HOF Pace Tracker

[rwperu34]

Here's the list of players who burned their rookie eligibility in their age 19 or 20 season from 2001-2010 (sorted by PA);

1) Jason Heyward-Defensive wizard, never got there with the bat. Fizzled at 26.
2) Justin Upton-Had a nice run from 21-23, but never got better. Done as a productive player by age 30.
3) Elvis Andrus-Is who we thought he was (ie really good). Looked like he might have taken the leap forward at 27-28, then sputtered. Still ended with over 2000 career hits despite the lack of peak.
4) Starlin Castro-Another player who was as good as he'd ever be by his early 20s. Another done as a productive player by age 30. Still ended with over 1700 career hits with no peak to speak of and a short career.
5) Giancarlo Stanton-Will likely get his 500 HR and roll in to Cooperstown. Injuries have dogged him his whole career.
6) Moggy-All time great.
7) Jose Reyes-Strong career and actually improved after coming in the league and had a nice peak, but faded too quickly. Out of baseball by 34. Ended with 2138 hits.
8) Carl Crawford-Had a strong 22-29, but dogged by injuries and a quick fade after 30.
9) Ruben Tejada-Was never any good.
10) Jose Lopez-Was OK from 22-25, then out of baseball before he turned 30.
11) BJ Upton-Looked like he was going to get there with a big breakout at 22, then was never able to repeat. Finished as a productive player by 27.

The story isn't finished on the 2011-2019 group, but we already know their star burned brighter than the previous group. Trout, Harper, Machado, Soto, Acuna, Vlad, Tatis, Albies, Devers, and Correa have all ended up more productive than all but Miggy and Stanton. Your duds are Odor, Profar, and Mondesi.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

David Wright was a young star, in every sense of the word. From age 22-25 his average season was .311/29/112/22. Basically prime Kyle Tucker. His main problem was I picked him up for my fantasy team heading into his age 26 season. Instead of taking a leap forward in his 26-30 prime, he fizzled and was done as a productive player by age 31.

That was commonplace for the top guys during those years. They started a little bit later, didn't burn quite as bright, and fizzled a little earlier than normal.

Agreed. Wright wasn’t just good, he was great. If the Hall weren’t so stingy with 3B, he’d likely make it (and he still might one day). It also would have helped had his Mets managed to win a World Series or two; then he’s Kirby Puckett.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Yes because focused hype produces the greatest profit which is what prospecting is about.

But what was interesting is that 2002 was the first BC Draft product. Prospectors jumped all over this because nobody really knew what this meant long-term, so prospectors felt obligated/had an excuse to hype it even further

That was the decade Topps released those "Buyback" sets too. Donruss did too. Funny the player I knew was destined for Cooperstown with 3000 hits and 400 home runs was David Wright. I bought 3 Buyback 2002 Bowman Autos for about $110 each. I just found them this week looking for stuff. Haha

[EldoEsq]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Agreed. Wright wasn’t just good, he was great. If the Hall weren’t so stingy with 3B, he’d likely make it (and he still might one day). It also would have helped had his Mets managed to win a World Series or two; then he’s Kirby Puckett.

Instead, he is Don Mattingly, and sadly, neither will make the HOF

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by EldoEsq

Instead, he is Don Mattingly, and sadly, neither will make the HOF

Feels like Wright coulda had a legit shot with 2 more good years. Also I coulda swore Mattingly had more than 1 batting title. I think Mattingly gets in eventually.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Feels like Wright coulda had a legit shot with 2 more good years. Also I coulda swore Mattingly had more than 1 batting title. I think Mattingly gets in eventually.

Harold Baines set the low bar so it wouldn't be a surprise.

[RobDerhak]

Put Don Mattingly on the Padres or Royals for his career and he is basically remembered the same as Jay Bell. The Mattingly for HOF crowd is only in place due to the pinstripes.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Harold Baines set the low bar so it wouldn't be a surprise.

I wonder if Harold knows he is the bar?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by RobDerhak

Put Don Mattingly on the Padres or Royals for his career and he is basically remembered the same as Jay Bell. The Mattingly for HOF crowd is only in place due to the pinstripes.

Mattingly practically was on the Padres. His years with the pinstripes were probably the leanest talent in team history. He finally got to experience a lone playoff series late in his career. The Puckett comp is a good one, minus the WS trophies. Will Clark would be another. I could see the writers eventually put Mattingly in. He was kind of the face of MLB as Donnie Baseball. His bat was elite for about six years and glove was good for a few more.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by EldoEsq

Instead, he is Don Mattingly, and sadly, neither will make the HOF
Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

While I get the comparison I disagree. Mattingly was often regarded as the best player in the game while Wright never was. Also, Mattingly will likely make it eventually. (And so might Wright).

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Harold Baines set the low bar so it wouldn't be a surprise.

Baines didn’t set any bar. He didn’t elect himself. Also the bar was set lower long before Baines.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by RobDerhak

Put Don Mattingly on the Padres or Royals for his career and he is basically remembered the same as Jay Bell. The Mattingly for HOF crowd is only in place due to the pinstripes.

If Mattingly were on the Royals he’d already be in the Hall of Fame since we would have probably won more than just the 1985 World Series with him at 1st.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Baines didn’t set any bar. He didn’t elect himself. Also the bar was set lower long before Baines.

I can buy that, recent memory I suppose.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I can buy that, recent memory I suppose.

Yeah and it’s a fair point. He is definitely one of the weaker selections of the 21st century. I look at Baines like this, he probably belongs in the Hall. But I would have put him in after every other deserving player from his era got in first. Like, he’d be a good “last guy” to get in…80 years from now. But that’s not what happened of course.

Go check out some of the selections from the 1940s. That’s when it really started. And Frisch made it a lot worse.

[pezzicle]

Baines is def the most recent guy you look at and go "wait what"

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by pezzicle

Baines is def the most recent guy you look at and go "wait what"

True, but I’m glad the Veterans Committee exists though, and it’s not just the writers putting guys in the Hall. Even if it does lead to the occasional Harold Baines induction.

[pezzicle]

oh 100% for sure. There is absolutely a need for the vets committee.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by NYBBFAN

There were a lot of strong starts for 2000s guys, but aside from the names you mentioned above, none became stars.

Delmon Young
David Wright (good not great)
Nick Johnson
Rocco Baldelli
Troy Tulowitzki
Corey Patterson

I’m sure I’ll get some heat from Mets fans for mentioning Wright in the same breath as these guys. 1700 hits and 250 HRs just ain’t superstardom. If he didn’t play in New York, he would have been even less relevant.

Jon Lester will be an interesting one to watch once he becomes HoF eligible. Only a handful of pitchers were better than him during this span (Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Greinke) and those 4 are pretty much HoF locks.

[NYBBFAN]

Originally Posted by corockies

Jon Lester will be an interesting one to watch once he becomes HoF eligible. Only a handful of pitchers were better than him during this span (Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Greinke) and those 4 are pretty much HoF locks.

I think the 200 W and 3 rings gets Lester in. It’s not a done deal 1st ballot like the others you mentioned, but Lester is good enough IMO.

[pinnacle06]

Originally Posted by NYBBFAN

I think the 200 W and 3 rings gets Lester in. It’s not a done deal 1st ballot like the others you mentioned, but Lester is good enough IMO.

ugh... I really hope this is not the case. The hall should mean something and Lester does not deserve to be near it. And I am a red sox fan.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by NYBBFAN

I think the 200 W and 3 rings gets Lester in. It’s not a done deal 1st ballot like the others you mentioned, but Lester is good enough IMO.

It will be hard to get in when he may be most remembered for being unable to throw a ball to first base. Which is pretty unfair to him as he had a pretty great career and was especially great in the post season

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

It will be hard to get in when he may be most remembered for being unable to throw a ball to first base. Which is pretty unfair to him as he had a pretty great career and was especially great in the post season

I doubt that is what he'll be remembered for. Until you mentioned I had forgotten all about that. As I was reading the discussion above all I thought about was the rings, especially the one with the Cubs.

[ironfireman]

200 game winners might be the new 300 game winners. We all know Verlander, Schrerzer, Grienke & Kershaw have 200+ wins but here are the are the active wins leader board for guys under 35.

Gerrit Cole 32 - 145 Wins
Chris Sale 34 - 120 Wins
Sonny Gray 33 - 98 Wins

30 and under leaders
Aaron Nola 30 - 90 Wins
Jose Berrios 29 - 83 Wins
E Rodriguez 30 - 82 Wins
Blake Snell 30 - 71 Wins

Cole is probably the only current active pitcher outside of the Verlander,Scherzer,Kershaw group with a real good chance at 200 wins.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

200 game winners might be the new 300 game winners. We all know Verlander, Schrerzer, Grienke & Kershaw have 200+ wins but here are the are the active wins leader board for guys under 35.

Gerrit Cole 32 - 145 Wins
Chris Sale 34 - 120 Wins
Sonny Gray 33 - 98 Wins

30 and under leaders
Aaron Nola 30 - 90 Wins
Jose Berrios 29 - 83 Wins
E Rodriguez 30 - 82 Wins
Blake Snell 30 - 71 Wins

Cole is probably the only current active pitcher outside of the Verlander,Scherzer,Kershaw group with a real good chance at 200 wins.

Along these lines, I just did a Secret Sauce for pitchers. Here is the list of guys who meet these three qualifiers; young (heading into age 25 season or younger), top 40 Secret Sauce projection, on Silent George's HOF tracker;

1) Spencer Strider

That's it!

Even guys you think should be young aren't. I'm looking specifically at Grayson Rodriguez. He's going to be 24 next season! Logan Gilbert was the real shocker. I still think of him as a young starter with some upside, but he'll be 27 in 2024. He's so far behind pace, even a CYA wouldn't put him on the tracker!

[NYBBFAN]

Cole will definitely hit 200. That’s only 14 W a year for 4 years. He’ll still have a year on his contract at that point. Cole may be the last of the current crop of pitchers where we’ll even be able to realistically debate if he reaches 250. Right now, I’ll put his career over/under at 225.