Potential Worth of Soccer Cards as Market Grows

[jswek]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

My honest 2 cents from someone that both buys and sells to put money into other things that aren’t cards (kids, house projects, keeping my wife happy with my trading card hobby) Full transparency here, I have nothing to hide...

I underestimated how fast and how much the prices would rise in the short term. I sold both Mbappe and Sancho way too soon because I thought their prices were going to plateau well before this. I love their potential, but not enough to miss out on grabbing some great Messi and CR7 cards with the profits. I stashed a couple just for insurance, but sold a blue Sancho refractor for $450 and an Mbappe Refractor for $350. Thought I was doing well haha.

The soccer market is just finding its legs. Right now the rise is meteoric and it will settle at some point, but it’s far from settling. It could realistically spike again with more fervor if card collecting increases sharply in other countries where soccer is king. I think this is likely to happen at some point in the near future as well.

Other players will start to see some trickle down effect soon, (Pulisic, Salah, Neymar, Kane etc.) but just a small bump on rarer stuff and rookies, nothing like the spike we just witnessed.

Prospecting will heat up on players from investors speculating on the next Mbappe or Sancho. Vinicius and Havertz are likely to rise in value next. Chrome releases of Haaland, Reyna, and eventually Camavinga are going to be HOT.

Soccer is also incredibly fun to watch and I think as it comes back on TV and people start watching their hobby investments, the interest will actually snowball.

At some point, the soccer naysayers will just have to admit defeat, but that probably won’t be anytime soon


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Agreed. Soccer cards were extremely undervalued for a long time likely due to some combination of its lack of history and the general lack of interest in soccer from the American market. Compared to trading cards of the Big Four, large scale production of soccer cards was a far more recent development. While chromium refractor cards were first developed and gained popularity in the early 90s, it took more than 20 years for the first widespread release of soccer refractor cards in Prizm World Cup 2014. Considering soccer is, by far, the most popular sport in the world, this is incredible.

The soccer card market is developing rapidly, but probably still has significant catching up to do. For reference, the most expensive recorded sale of a Pop 5 PSA 9 1958 Alifabolaget 635, the highest graded example of the most desirable rookie card of the greatest soccer player ever, was for $57000 in November of 2018. Now, contrast that with prices of the rookie cards of the greatest athletes in other sports. Be that is it may, unfortunately, chances are that the days of sub-$1000 cases for the most popular soccer products are already behind us.

[bobbycass]

Really depends. The world could be heading into a massive depression and the arse could fall out of the card market in general.

[Ianhatcher]

I think what many are not realizing is the fact that there are so few graded copies of many of these cards and that is a big reason for the price hikes. So what happens now that PSA and BGS have started grading again the past few weeks and the market is flooded with the 1000's of MBappe and Sancho cards that were sent in by people hoping to flip them?

Raw prices go up because people are paying high prices for graded because there are so few and when people see $3k for a Mbappe Silver Prizm PSA 10 they think, wow...$1k is good for a raw and then I can grade it and re-sell for $2k profit.

It will be interesting to see if the market is really there to buy all that and keep prices high or is everyone really dumping these to buy what they really want which I suspect is the case.

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by Ianhatcher

I think what many are not realizing is the fact that there are so few graded copies of many of these cards and that is a big reason for the price hikes. So what happens now that PSA and BGS have started grading again the past few weeks and the market is flooded with the 1000's of MBappe and Sancho cards that were sent in by people hoping to flip them?

Raw prices go up because people are paying high prices for graded because there are so few and when people see $3k for a Mbappe Silver Prizm PSA 10 they think, wow...$1k is good for a raw and then I can grade it and re-sell for $2k profit.

It will be interesting to see if the market is really there to buy all that and keep prices high or is everyone really dumping these to buy what they really want which I suspect is the case.

Look at raw value graded for non-auto rookies in other sports

Acuna Update
Raw - 50
Bgs 9.5 - 120
Psa 10 - 185

Mahomes Prizm
Raw - 550
Bgs 9.5 - 1500
Psa 10 - 2800

Luka base prizm
Raw - 150
Bgs 9.5 - 350
Psa 10 - 515

Base cards are liquid for top players. People will always put a premium on the best condition (graded) liquid cards

[Raj3sh]

Originally Posted by ksemmel

Look at raw value graded for non-auto rookies in other sports

Acuna Update
Raw - 50
Bgs 9.5 - 120
Psa 10 - 185

Mahomes Prizm
Raw - 550
Bgs 9.5 - 1500
Psa 10 - 2800

Luka base prizm
Raw - 150
Bgs 9.5 - 350
Psa 10 - 515

Base cards are liquid for top players. People will always put a premium on the best condition (graded) liquid cards

aren't these due to the recent base card hype by the investors?

would like to see the prices before 5 months.

[Ianhatcher]

Originally Posted by ksemmel

Look at raw value graded for non-auto rookies in other sports

Acuna Update
Raw - 50
Bgs 9.5 - 120
Psa 10 - 185

Mahomes Prizm
Raw - 550
Bgs 9.5 - 1500
Psa 10 - 2800

Luka base prizm
Raw - 150
Bgs 9.5 - 350
Psa 10 - 515

Base cards are liquid for top players. People will always put a premium on the best condition (graded) liquid cards

I never claimed they weren't only that it will be interesting to see how the market will react when we have 10x the graded copies of some of these cards that have increased so rapidly because you know that's coming.

A hobby needs fans and collectors who love the sport to thrive. If all we have is a bunch of new "investors" and people who see opportunity for profit eventually you have too much supply and not enough demand and prices go down. I just happen to think that is what is going to happen here for many of these cards. I might be wrong and the base of some of these just continues to go up and up. I have a lot to gain from that but I honestly don't care if it does.

[cardshopmd]

Originally Posted by bobbycass

Really depends. The world could be heading into a massive depression and the arse could fall out of the card market in general.

I agree with you. Right now the market is through the roof. I am just going to enjoy the ride while i can.

[fadster]

Originally Posted by Ianhatcher

A hobby needs fans and collectors who love the sport to thrive. If all we have is a bunch of new "investors" and people who see opportunity for profit eventually you have too much supply and not enough demand and prices go down. I just happen to think that is what is going to happen here for many of these cards. I might be wrong and the base of some of these just continues to go up and up. I have a lot to gain from that but I honestly don't care if it does.

Agreed, there has to be organic demand and not just speculators, otherwise it's just a race against time to not be a bagholder. I'm seeing people show up on facebook looking to only buy Mbappe base in bulk and it makes me nervous. I like Mbappe a lot but relative to the rest of the market things are getting overheated, risk is not being priced in anymore but a top 10 all-time career is almost fully priced in.

[jswek]

Originally Posted by Ianhatcher

I never claimed they weren't only that it will be interesting to see how the market will react when we have 10x the graded copies of some of these cards that have increased so rapidly because you know that's coming.

A hobby needs fans and collectors who love the sport to thrive. If all we have is a bunch of new "investors" and people who see opportunity for profit eventually you have too much supply and not enough demand and prices go down. I just happen to think that is what is going to happen here for many of these cards. I might be wrong and the base of some of these just continues to go up and up. I have a lot to gain from that but I honestly don't care if it does.

One important distinction is that, as of now, there really are no autographed rookie options for soccer.

In Mbappe’s case, there are no NT RPAs or Bowman Autos to trump his Prizm and Chrome rookies. Theoretically, this means that if the popularity of soccer cards catches up to that of the Big Four, then demand for Mbappe’s Prizm and Chrome rookies will be higher than those of comparable stars in other sports. In other words, Mbappe’s Prizm and Chrome rookies are potentially more comparable to Iverson or Kobe’s Chrome rookies than Acuna’s Update or Luka’s Prizm rookies.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Refractors and base of Trent Alexander-arnold are up nicely as well. Also cool that he has an auto in the set with plenty of color. Messi refractors over $100, others rising now as well.

[obenheimer]

It's hard to believe that the Messi TC Refractor is over $150 now. Sucks that I need one for my set, but at least I have the Mbappe and CR7. I'm trying to pick up a Pulisic and Arnold soon, but I might save up my money and hope the prices stabilize or go down a little, so I can at least complete my set. It makes me wonder if there are a few people on eBay bidding these cards up on purpose. Last week the Mbappe refractor was selling for $400 easy. A few days ago one sold for $750. I feel people are finally realizing how limited the TC are from that year.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by obenheimer

It makes me wonder if there are a few people on eBay bidding these cards up on purpose.

The answer is yes.

There are numerous "buyers groups" active right now in all sports, buying and bidding up specific players/cards. Gary Vee is the most famous/well known, but he's just one of many. A lot of this involves shilling auctions and then not paying, in order to establish artificially high prices as the new baseline.

In soccer, the primary players are Mpabbe, Sancho, Haaland, Messi, and CR7.

In baseball, it's Griffey, Jeter, Trout, and to a lesser extent, Acuna.

In basketball, it's Jordan, Kobe, and Giannis.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by obenheimer

It's hard to believe that the Messi TC Refractor is over $150 now. Sucks that I need one for my set, but at least I have the Mbappe and CR7. I'm trying to pick up a Pulisic and Arnold soon, but I might save up my money and hope the prices stabilize or go down a little, so I can at least complete my set. It makes me wonder if there are a few people on eBay bidding these cards up on purpose. Last week the Mbappe refractor was selling for $400 easy. A few days ago one sold for $750. I feel people are finally realizing how limited the TC are from that year.

Limited production, huge superstars, high demand.

Perfect recipe. Blowout reloaded boxes at 449 and a few have already sold. Product.continues to reach new highs.

[obenheimer]

So there is a Messi refractor ending tonight that is at $150+. Do you think the same seller will be relisting the card in a week, because the high bidder might not pay or maybe the seller is in on it? I'm just trying to figure out when the best time to try and pick up a Messi, Arnold, and Pulisic would be, because I don't want to wait to long and I'm paying 2-3x more than if I buy right now. I'm not someone who's not going to pay, but I don't want to get screwed over and pay to much because of douche bags like that. If anything I can just wait until shows start back up and hopefully find some dealers selling them. They might be the last three I need, but maybe I won't get screwed over. I'm just trying to finish my set. Makes me wish I would have been working on it more before now. Oh well, you live and learn.

Originally Posted by mfw13

The answer is yes.

There are numerous "buyers groups" active right now in all sports, buying and bidding up specific players/cards. Gary Vee is the most famous/well known, but he's just one of many. A lot of this involves shilling auctions and then not paying, in order to establish artificially high prices as the new baseline.

In soccer, the primary players are Mpabbe, Sancho, Haaland, Messi, and CR7.

In baseball, it's Griffey, Jeter, Trout, and to a lesser extent, Acuna.

In basketball, it's Jordan, Kobe, and Giannis.

[obenheimer]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Limited production, huge superstars, high demand.

Perfect recipe. Blowout reloaded boxes at 449 and a few have already sold. Product.continues to reach new highs.

I know bro. 2-3 months ago they were on sale for under $600 a case from Blowout. I was actually looking at buying a case, but didn't have the money. The four boxes I did buy, I got from them back in 2018 for around $50 each. I live near the DC area, so I actually stopped into their shop and picked them up.

[KhalDrogo]

A pair of Messi TC refractors sold for $157 today. Two morons probably saw that and though it was one. Then bid up this one.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

A pair of Messi TC refractors sold for $157 today. Two morons probably saw that and though it was one. Then bid up this one.

Well, another one just sold for $135 shipped. There’s no going back to sub $100 now.

[gabe23]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

A pair of Messi TC refractors sold for $157 today. Two morons probably saw that and though it was one. Then bid up this one.

Hard to tell which auctions are legit and shilled.

[Akphillips86]

Early on, I bought a few different colors of Messi and CR7 for nothing. I winced when I snagged a Messi purple for $100 the other night on a BIN (Im a cheapskate), but felt it was too good to pass up given how few serial numbered refractors of Messi/Ronaldo are currently on the market. VERY curious to see what greens and blues are going to bring, never mind gold and orange.


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[chiefs]

Anyone know what the print run on 2018 WC Silver is?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by chiefs

Anyone know what the print run on 2018 WC Silver is?

A lot. Close to double TC refractor if I had to guess.

[jswek]

Originally Posted by chiefs

Anyone know what the print run on 2018 WC Silver is?

Rough calculations for the base Silver:

Estimate 6000 hobby cases based off the numbered Prizms.

At an average of 7 base Silvers per hobby box, it takes an average of 3.57 hobby cases to pull any given base Silver.

6000 divided by 3.57 is about 1680, so let’s set the range of hobby Silvers at 1600-2000.

Assuming an equivalent amount of retail, we are looking at total print run of 3200-4000 base Silvers. Best guess would be 3500.

However, keep in mind that WC Prizm 2018 was a cheap product that was heavily busted in 2018, and that the Mbappe Silver was a dollar card at one point, so a decent amount of the Silvers may be lost or gone.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by jswek

Rough calculations for the base Silver:

Estimate 6000 hobby cases based off the numbered Prizms.

At an average of 7 base Silvers per hobby box, it takes an average of 3.57 hobby cases to pull any given base Silver.

6000 divided by 3.57 is about 1680, so let’s set the range of hobby Silvers at 1600-2000.

Assuming an equivalent amount of retail, we are looking at total print run of 3200-4000 base Silvers. Best guess would be 3500.

However, keep in mind that WC Prizm 2018 was a cheap product that was heavily busted in 2018, and that the Mbappe Silver was a dollar card at one point, so a decent amount of the Silvers may be lost or gone.

How about Chrome refractors? Not even 2,000 correct?

[Durantula]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

A lot. Close to double TC refractor if I had to guess.

Likely more. TC has about 1500 cases produced with approximately 1000 TCR made.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Chrome boxes now at $550 on Blowout!!!!