NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

He also hit one lucky moment where he luckily got a chance at a pack.

He's making it seem like business as usual for that to happen.

It's not.

Like anything else, you can get lucky and get a hit in one of their packs. But you're much, much more likely to get guys like Montrezl Harrell and Glenn Robinson III and Daniel Theis than you are to hit one or two of the big money moments that come out.

This is also not true, every pack as of now provides a 'hit', they are all positive EV. I think you need to research TS a little more before making definitive statements.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

What's going to happen when moments are minted 50k+. How are any of the serials way way down the list going to sell? If 10k of the moments are all the same price it seems unlikely that these would be very liquid at all.

I see the appeal of low #d S1 super star stuff but what's going to keep people buying commons? Is an Ish Smith assist going to be that desirable when there are a thousand of them for $1 and nobody buys them?

I am hoping it becomes similar to sports cards. No one cares about 90% of the cards that are released every year. It is the 10% that carry the product. Same thing should happen with these. Not sure why everyone thinks a huge supply is going to destroy value. Do you realize how many cards are released every year?

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

These kinds of tactics reek of desperation from TS.

They've been talking about badges before any of this got popular, it's a way of distinguishing moments

[whodatbeastly16]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

He also hit one lucky moment where he luckily got a chance at a pack.

He's making it seem like business as usual for that to happen.

It's not.

Like anything else, you can get lucky and get a hit in one of their packs. But you're much, much more likely to get guys like Montrezl Harrell and Glenn Robinson III and Daniel Theis than you are to hit one or two of the big money moments that come out.

It actually wasn’t anywhere near one of the best hits from that pack. Regardless. that Seeing Stars pack was $14 and you were guaranteed a SS moment worth at least $200 at the time. I pulled the worst SS and already made 20x my investment. It was already a big win and then I got another good pull. Pack ROI has gotten worse, as expected, over the last month and I’ve been honest in saying I only doubled or tripled on those packs. From the get go I was clear I would only invest in packs as the market is volatile. And it’s made me a bit of money plus a nice collection on Topshot. Everyone here that’s employed the same strategy I did has enjoyed 10x-100x returns on their minimal investment of $10-$20.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

I am hoping it becomes similar to sports cards. No one cares about 90% of the cards that are released every year. It is the 10% that carry the product. Same thing should happen with these. Not sure why everyone thinks a huge supply is going to destroy value. Do you realize how many cards are released every year?

Yeah I don't understand when people use things such as "LOOK THIS ISH SMITH MOMENT IS WORTHLESS TOP SHOT IS STUPID" when in reality pretty much every single Ish Smith card is worth pennies. Even the rare parallels don't fetch a lot. Does that mean cards are worthless?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

I am hoping it becomes similar to sports cards. No one cares about 90% of the cards that are released every year. It is the 10% that carry the product. Same thing should happen with these. Not sure why everyone thinks a huge supply is going to destroy value. Do you realize how many cards are released every year?

but when the entire allure of the product (for most) is to quick flip and make money how is that sustainable? It's nothing like the card market I guess until this last year

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by b2k1121

They've been working on badges for months, how is that desperation? It's not like they just thought of that idea yesterday because prices were dropping.

If you were a collector and you get on the site a year from now, wouldn't you want to quickly find the first moments and rookie year moments for players instead of guessing? It's why rookie cards have an RC logo on them.

Not really, no... Because the way people are chasing moments and the way value is coming through is the lower the number. Not the earlier the highlight.

Timing of the release has nothing to do with it.

The badges, IMO, are further cheapening the quality of the product. The relentless bells and whistles that they keep forcing in are short sighted.

Not as bad as the challenges, maybe... But still... Bad.

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by TFCNB

What does everyone thing the 3 badge rookies are going to max out at once the badges are in place? I'm specifically talking about the lower tier rookies like Tate, Toppin, McDanies, etc. I'm thinking in the $500-600 range. I can't see them getting much higher.

Hopefully $1m for the Lamelo Ball I have

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by b2k1121

This is also not true, every pack as of now provides a 'hit', they are all positive EV. I think you need to research TS a little more before making definitive statements.

I've been on this product for months, bud...

He has the return on investment because he hit a low numbered LeBron James.


"Every pack" doesn't provide that.

And the packs they released from the presale 2 weeks ago? Not only did every pack not have a hit... Many of them had duplicates despite only featuring 3 moments. One guy got three copies of the same #/35K moment.

And even those who didn't get duplicates. Only a fraction of the packs featured stuff numbered less than #35K. They didn't all have a hit. People were in this thread posting all night what they got. Almost nobody got a hit.

Perhaps it's you who should be doing more research.


I'm not one of those guys here to crap on TS for fun. I'm invested in it, too. I'm simply reporting what I'm seeing and adding some context to what was a very misleading post.

The propaganda about Top Shot is thick in some places.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

but when the entire allure of the product (for most) is to quick flip and make money how is that sustainable? It's nothing like the card market I guess until this last year

Yeah right now the entire allure is a quick flip to make money. The hope is that enough people get converted to actual collectors. You can still try and flip and invest in moments but you collect while you do that. I can see why a lot of people think that when the quick profits are gone this is going to sink but I feel differently. I think enough people will stick around to carve out a very real collection market. I don't think it's clear one way or the other what will actually happen in that regard though. Going to have to wait and see.

[whodatbeastly16]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

I've been on this product for months, bud...

He has the return on investment because he hit a low numbered LeBron James.


"Every pack" doesn't provide that.

And the packs they released from the presale 2 weeks ago? Not only did every pack not have a hit... Many of them had duplicates. 3 moments. One guy got three copies of the same #/35K moment.

Perhaps it's you who has to be doing more research.

Just making stuff up at this point, bud. If I had hit a low numbered Lebron I’d have made 1000x+ my investment. You can’t be bothered to do the most basic research. Your reading comprehension also needs some work. Barely even worth a response at this point.

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

Just making stuff up at this point, bud. If I had hit a low numbered Lebron I’d have made 1000x+ my investment. You can’t be bothered to do the most basic research. Your reading comprehension also needs some work. Barely even worth a response at this point.

Who did you hit then? You came here and bragged about it with a "not bad for a day's work" type of comment and made sure to point out that you hit a moment over $4,000.

Don't play coy, you know you did. If I misremembered that it was a LeBron and it was someone else, fine... But don't play games and fake the funk. You know what you said. And you know the underlying point of what I said was right. If it wasn't a LeBron, it was something else. It was one singular very lucky hit.

Why lie?

[Mahomie]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

I am hoping it becomes similar to sports cards. No one cares about 90% of the cards that are released every year. It is the 10% that carry the product. Same thing should happen with these. Not sure why everyone thinks a huge supply is going to destroy value. Do you realize how many cards are released every year?

For sure, there needs to be a low entry point.

If they minted some iconic vintage clips, my market activity would definitely increase.

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

Not really, no... Because the way people are chasing moments and the way value is coming through is the lower the number. Not the earlier the highlight.

Timing of the release has nothing to do with it.

The badges, IMO, are further cheapening the quality of the product. The relentless bells and whistles that they keep forcing in are short sighted.

Not as bad as the challenges, maybe... But still... Bad.

This is also incorrect. Look at the star players first moments on the site and see how much more expensive they are compared to everything else. People are absolutely collecting first moments and rookie moments. Look at the rookies on Topshot that are barely even playing compared to mediocre vets.

Is a RC logo on a card cheapening the product?

Challenges are also great and a good way to gamify the product. There just shouldn't be so many happening at the same time.

[BosCardGuy]

Picked up a $20 Mike Conley last night after the delay to become eligible for today's pack. I guess it went alright:

Lebron #639/2021
KD Dunk /35k
Jokic Assist /35K
Carmelo Anthony /15k
De'Anthony Melton /12k
Duncan Robinson /35k
Cody Zeller /35k
Yea you know casual $4k profit minimum. In other news, my bracket just got busted by Ohio State. What were y'alls Final Fours for the topshot bracket challenge? I did Ohio State, Gonzaga, Bama, and Illinois. Have Bama vs. Illinois in the championship with Alabama winning it all.



This was the post... it was you replying to someone else. The way it rendered when I first viewed it made it all look like it was you.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

Picked up a $20 Mike Conley last night after the delay to become eligible for today's pack. I guess it went alright:

Lebron #639/2021
KD Dunk /35k
Jokic Assist /35K
Carmelo Anthony /15k
De'Anthony Melton /12k
Duncan Robinson /35k
Cody Zeller /35k
Yea you know casual $4k profit minimum. In other news, my bracket just got busted by Ohio State. What were y'alls Final Fours for the topshot bracket challenge? I did Ohio State, Gonzaga, Bama, and Illinois. Have Bama vs. Illinois in the championship with Alabama winning it all.



This was the post... it was you replying to someone else. The way it rendered when I first viewed it made it all look like it was you.

He clarified a post later that it was a friends pack.

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

I've been on this product for months, bud...

He has the return on investment because he hit a low numbered LeBron James.


"Every pack" doesn't provide that.

And the packs they released from the presale 2 weeks ago? Not only did every pack not have a hit... Many of them had duplicates despite only featuring 3 moments. One guy got three copies of the same #/35K moment.

And even those who didn't get duplicates. Only a fraction of the packs featured stuff numbered less than #35K. They didn't all have a hit. People were in this thread posting all night what they got. Almost nobody got a hit.

Perhaps it's you who should be doing more research.


I'm not one of those guys here to crap on TS for fun. I'm invested in it, too. I'm simply reporting what I'm seeing and adding some context to what was a very misleading post.

The propaganda about Top Shot is thick in some places.

I'm not really exaggerating when I say that every statement you are making today is inaccurate, it's impressive.

I don't think whodat pulled a Lebron. Every one of those /35k packs had a positive EV, that's what I'm describing as a 'hit'. Even at the lowest ask and the worst possible players, the seller would have 3x the cost of the pack and that was the lowest EV pack they have released so far.

It's not propaganda to just inform you on basic facts that you are wrong about.

[sandlotsportcards]

Originally Posted by TFCNB

What does everyone thing the 3 badge rookies are going to max out at once the badges are in place? I'm specifically talking about the lower tier rookies like Tate, Toppin, McDanies, etc. I'm thinking in the $500-600 range. I can't see them getting much higher.

I have no idea where these might top out at but Toppin is up around $100 today. I debated pulling the trigger on his this morning when it was $229 but didn't and now it was recently at $330. Same thing with Tate. His was around $200 and is now $299. I opted to buy a Kira Lewis for $299 and now it's at $346. I couldn't invest in all 3 so I chose the one I thought had the most staying power as a rookie. I don't know if the 3 badge is driving the increase or the market correction has happened some from the crash yesterday. There are still a couple rookies to watch like McDaniels and Vassell. McDermott is low but not sure what upside that has. Reason I can't speculate if it's badges or not is because I snagged a Lebron Dunk /7500 yesterday for $725 and it's back up to $1170 right now. I'm sure that correction is because it's Lebron.

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by b2k1121

This is also incorrect. Look at the star players first moments on the site and see how much more expensive they are compared to everything else. People are absolutely collecting first moments and rookie moments. Look at the rookies on Topshot that are barely even playing compared to mediocre vets.

Is a RC logo on a card cheapening the product?

Challenges are also great and a good way to gamify the product. There just shouldn't be so many happening at the same time.

These aren't cards. Stop comparing the two.

And there is absolutely nothing incorrect about what I just said.



"Challenges are great" is the biggest plant comment you've made yet.

They are a cheap way to manipulate the market. The value of the moments required to complete the "challenge" goes into the toilet the minute the challenge is completed.

It's dumb. It's gimmicky and it's in no way sustainable long-term.

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by b2k1121

I'm not really exaggerating when I say that every statement you are making today is inaccurate, it's impressive.

I don't think whodat pulled a Lebron. Every one of those /35k packs had a positive EV, that's what I'm describing as a 'hit'. Even at the lowest ask and the worst possible players, the seller would have 3x the cost of the pack and that was the lowest EV pack they have released so far.

It's not propaganda to just inform you on basic facts that you are wrong about.

You might want to go back and re-read.

Get back to me when you do. Because at this point, you are moving the goal-posts so badly, I don't even want to keep reading your replies.

Nobody once said you didn't get more than your EV in most packs.

Yet, you're arguing over and over that I did.

I didn't.

You took my response to someone saying they, literally, got well over 100X their original investment in 2 weeks, by me pointing out that was because of a lucky hit.

You proceed to tell us that every pack has those kinds of hits... and use "3X EV" as your evidence.


Plant

[whodatbeastly16]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

Picked up a $20 Mike Conley last night after the delay to become eligible for today's pack. I guess it went alright:

Lebron #639/2021
KD Dunk /35k
Jokic Assist /35K
Carmelo Anthony /15k
De'Anthony Melton /12k
Duncan Robinson /35k
Cody Zeller /35k
Yea you know casual $4k profit minimum. In other news, my bracket just got busted by Ohio State. What were y'alls Final Fours for the topshot bracket challenge? I did Ohio State, Gonzaga, Bama, and Illinois. Have Bama vs. Illinois in the championship with Alabama winning it all.



This was the post... it was you replying to someone else. The way it rendered when I first viewed it made it all look like it was you.

Ah so you've been replying to the wrong person the whole time. Like I said, basic research and pretty pitiful reading comprehension.
3x EV is probably minimum at this point, even for the person that pulled 3 Delon Wrights out of their base pack. You can go ahead and excuse yourself from this thread. You keep digging a deeper and deeper hole, the whole time making yourself look more like a fool. I did make over 100x my initial investment, and it didn't involve packing something nearly as good as a low-numbered Lebron.

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

These aren't cards. Stop comparing the two.

And there is absolutely nothing incorrect about what I just said.



"Challenges are great" is the biggest plant comment you've made yet.

They are a cheap way to manipulate the market. The value of the moments required to complete the "challenge" goes into the toilet the minute the challenge is completed.

It's dumb. It's gimmicky and it's in no way sustainable long-term.

They aren't cards, but they are collectibles and cards have a badge for rookies that distinguishes them from the rest. Badges in TS are the exact same idea so why would that be a bad thing? Wouldn't a collector want to know what is the equivalent to a rookie card on TS?

The great thing about challenges is that you can choose to not do them if you don't like them. Some people like the collecting and completion aspect of it. Don't see how this is a bad thing, you aren't forced to participate.

[Archangel1775]

Well, the market is rising again. I'm up 12% since this morning. Must be the badges that I have yet to see. I guess I'll login and take a look.

[whodatbeastly16]

Kind of sucks my Kira sold at $350 last night when I could now get $50 more from that card, but it's whatever. Was not expecting it to sell overnight and I check this thread to see badges are coming soon. Just couldn't justify having over $300 in a Kira Lewis topshot when I don't have any cards of his worth nearly that much. Glad to see you got in on the Kira sandlot, did you get a low number?

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

You might want to go back and re-read.

Get back to me when you do. Because at this point, you are moving the goal-posts so badly, I don't even want to keep reading your replies.

Nobody once said you didn't get more than your EV in most packs.

Yet, you're arguing over and over that I did.

I didn't.

You took my response to someone saying they, literally, got well over 100X their original investment in 2 weeks, by me pointing out that was because of a lucky hit.

You proceed to tell us that every pack has those kinds of hits... and use "3X EV" as your evidence.


Plant

This you?

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

Like anything else, you can get lucky and get a hit in one of their packs. But you're much, much more likely to get guys like Montrezl Harrell and Glenn Robinson III and Daniel Theis than you are to hit one or two of the big money moments that come out.

Sure sounds like you are saying most packs don't hit.