NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[Jamesebee]

Business
Numbers
Money
People

I can't say with any certainty that the limited evolution of TS surprises me. My prism of visibility is narrowed by the problems they have not successfully addressed.

Scarcity

Roughly 300k queued for 67.5k packs or so this time around. Would they have been better off building in the two-week lead time with a guaranteed pack? (They certainly could have sold more.) Should they offer some consolation for people willing to be assigned a random position in the queue? Why not offer an "up to 10 moments" package without creating the chase element of Cool Cats?

Variety

Self-confidence-based conversations over valuation and variance is more than a little bit telling. If it is centered around a market, it will be subject to volatility--but I suppose the same could be said for anything collectible, right? My issue is that the research you could do is irrelevant if the likelihood of a more-exclusive opportunity is reliant on limited awareness, something that has been demonstrated (clearly) is not going to tank.

Addressing the IP

Fine-maybe players, teams, or owners really don't care about the origin points of these big plays. Let's just assume that the person(s) who assembled the Moments aren't sharing in the secondary market spikes. Why is that 5% such a thorn in my side, you ask? Well, assuming they sell, there could be a developing tertiary impact for creative directors and producers. It just continues to be gray for me because of the assembly and presentation--I doubt the person who produces the musical soundtracks/sound effects for the pack is continuously being recognized. But if it resulted in nearly $1M in sales in a single day, or subsequent secondary marketplace sales...

I'm not saying Kraftwerk got it right, but it's been 40 years. Even longer since Fritz Lang's Metropolis...

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

No, unless I missed a drop. I got a release 22 pack 3/17

Weird.

Shows as drop 23 on the site has sold out.
Attachment 504442

[ffwiseguy]

Originally Posted by drobfan8

Weird.

Shows as drop 23 on the site has sold out.
Attachment 504442

Both releases (22 and 23) happened on 3/17. Release 22 was the 5,000 pack stress test. Release 23 was the 25,000 packs dropped a couple hours later.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by hoopstaj

My Mitchell all star has really dropped! Currently priced at $260. I guess the game with these is sell right away


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When nft art imitates crypto life.


Same exact thing. When a new coin is listed on an exchange, prices usually shoot up for the first ones to list. Then plummet soon thereafter until it finds solid market support. I suppose most major markets are like this (initial listings of new card releases, etc).

[hoopstaj]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

When nft art imitates crypto life.


Same exact thing. When a new coin is listed on an exchange, prices usually shoot up for the first ones to list. Then plummet soon thereafter until it finds solid market support. I suppose most major markets are like this (initial listings of new card releases, etc).

Yea great point. I like Mitchell so goal was never to sell but just interesting seeing the moves


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[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by hoopstaj

Yea great point. I like Mitchell so goal was never to sell but just interesting seeing the moves


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I think the important thing to always remember is that profit is always good. We all want to aim for the moon and the stars, but even a double up is great money. The odds of calculating and catching the exact top or bottom of an investment over the course of its lifetime is astronomical.

Flipped my Conley AS for 290 a few days back and never looked back.

[rubendn]

They are probably going to have to go to a more hit-centered model in the future.

For instance in today's drop they could have made it where 1 in 5 packs had a Cool Cats and offered 337k packs. They still would have sold out at the same price and I'm sure people would still be happy paying $14 for 5 /35000 moments instead of getting shut out completely.

[hoopstaj]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I think the important thing to always remember is that profit is always good. We all want to aim for the moon and the stars, but even a double up is great money. The odds of calculating and catching the exact top or bottom of an investment over the course of its lifetime is astronomical.

Flipped my Conley AS for 290 a few days back and never looked back.

This is an issue I’m having. I pulled the Haliburton rising stars and still have it. Don’t know why I’m holding, was at $2k now at $1200. Probably going to list but not sure what I’d do with the funds except just hold until future packs


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[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by hoopstaj

This is an issue I’m having. I pulled the Haliburton rising stars and still have it. Don’t know why I’m holding, was at $2k now at $1200. Probably going to list but not sure what I’d do with the funds except just hold until future packs


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Basic human psychology...which is why trading is so hard, and especially hard to do long term at a successful clip.

I basically try and tune my perspective to think about long term compounded profits. You could theoretically hold onto x hoping for 300% realized gains....or sell for 100% now and reinvest the profits 2 or 3 different ways to come to the same eventual conclusion...all while mitigating your risk exposure. Of course this isn't a blanket statement and a lot will be dependent on the quality/rarity of moment and player involved...but it's never bad to walk away in the green, because there will always be an abundance of future trade opportunities at your disposal.

[hoopstaj]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Basic human psychology...which is why trading is so hard, and especially hard to do long term at a successful clip.

I basically try and tune my perspective to think about long term compounded profits. You could theoretically hold onto x hoping for 300% realized gains....or sell for 100% now and reinvest the profits 2 or 3 different ways to come to the same eventual conclusion...all while mitigating your risk exposure. Of course this isn't a blanket statement and a lot will be dependent on the quality/rarity of moment and player involved...but it's never bad to walk away in the green, because there will always be an abundance of future trade opportunities at your disposal.

Damn you and your smart posts, making sense and all that


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[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by hoopstaj

Damn you and your smart posts, making sense and all that


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Only speak from experience, my man. I daytrade for a living. Wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by ffwiseguy

Both releases (22 and 23) happened on 3/17. Release 22 was the 5,000 pack stress test. Release 23 was the 25,000 packs dropped a couple hours later.

That's right. Oh how quickly we forget. Thanks for clearing up my confusion.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by drobfan8

Looks like it.

People bought early for the challenge thinking things would get expensive quick, instead have been taken for a ride.

I feel like the Steph #102 could have been about $3.5k and now is about $1500.

Really strange to know what to do. What's the point of putting these challenges together after the time expires?

Dumb question but where are you getting the #102 from. I didn't think these had card numbers?

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Dumb question but where are you getting the #102 from. I didn't think these had card numbers?

It's serial number

[Howie7107]

Man, whoever sold the #1 LBJ All-Star just got raked over the coals overnight. Profit is profit and I'm sure he's thrilled with his $42,000, but that is a crazy significant discount from what it would've sold for with a little patience.

Also, how low do we think Luka CC can get? Not a lot of buying action on it and everyone is still just piling in on the undercuts. Almost pulled the trigger on a low serial last night that seemed like a decent deal at the time, but glad I didn't.

[elp11]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

but that is a crazy significant discount from what it would've sold for with a little patience.

Is that actually true? I haven’t really followed the low serial numbered, 5/6 digit sale moments much but to me it seems like a smart move. I can’t imagine they move all that frequently and seems like a decent high risk to try and hold out for more without knowing their future launch plans for moments.

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by elp11

Is that actually true? I haven’t really followed the low serial numbered, 5/6 digit sale moments much but to me it seems like a smart move. I can’t imagine they move all that frequently and seems like a decent high risk to try and hold out for more without knowing their future launch plans for moments.

We'll see what the future holds. I have no idea what the buyer's intent is, but I have very little doubt that with some leg work that he could sell it for 6 figures without breaking a sweat in a pretty short period of time.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

We'll see what the future holds. I have no idea what the buyer's intent is, but I have very little doubt that with some leg work that he could sell it for 6 figures without breaking a sweat in a pretty short period of time.

I agree, I think it would've sold within the next week or 2 if it was priced around 100-125K. Just comparing to other LeBron moments, a #1 would've gone for 6 figs

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Man, whoever sold the #1 LBJ All-Star just got raked over the coals overnight. Profit is profit and I'm sure he's thrilled with his $42,000, but that is a crazy significant discount from what it would've sold for with a little patience.

Also, how low do we think Luka CC can get? Not a lot of buying action on it and everyone is still just piling in on the undercuts. Almost pulled the trigger on a low serial last night that seemed like a decent deal at the time, but glad I didn't.

profit is profit right?

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by rifleman69

profit is profit right?

He could've sold it for $500 and made profit. Profit is profit doesn't work when everyone is handed profit. The amount of profit matters. I don't mind the move though. The market has been scary so I can see why he may have just wanted to sell it and move on.

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

He could've sold it for $500 and made profit. Profit is profit doesn't work when everyone is handed profit. The amount of profit matters. I don't mind the move though. The market has been scary so I can see why he may have just wanted to sell it and move on.

Maybe the amount of profit was good for them? Doesn't mean it's good for you and others. Besides, if it's an outlier, you'd see the #2 or that same #1 be sold in the very near future for more?

[orion9578]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Man, whoever sold the #1 LBJ All-Star just got raked over the coals overnight. Profit is profit and I'm sure he's thrilled with his $42,000, but that is a crazy significant discount from what it would've sold for with a little patience.

He paid $200~ for a "pack" of GIF's and sold one for $42k. Would you have been happy? I'd have been ecstatic, haha. I am an old retired man now, BUT, that is more money than I made in 2 years in 2001/2002, fresh out of college.

I get what you're saying, a month~ ago, he could have likely got 1.5-2x that?

My opinion is that virtually everything was overpriced at that point though. That'd be why I sold most of my stuff right around then. I have only kept a few Suns moments and don't plan on doing much till we see a bottom(I still don't think we're even close on a lot of stuff...).

I'll join pack drops and read the thread, but that'll be the extent of my TS activities unless things change(slowing of the market is my biggest complaint).

[whodatbeastly16]

And all that 42,000 went to someone who won't spend a dime on the market again.

[psochaps]

Withdrawal approved. Only problem is all my dapper is tied up in moments now 😂

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by psochaps

Withdrawal approved. Only problem is all my dapper is tied up in moments now 😂

Oh nice I just checked cause of this message and I also can withdraw now. I'm too busy trying to deposit instead though lol