Elly De La Cruz

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by Funkster

They aren’t sending him down, he’s got nothing left to prove at triple A. He needs to adjust at this level.


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What is the reds primarily focus right now, letting young guys adjust or trying to win the divisions. He’s posted like a -1 war over the last 10 games, yes it’s a small sample and he deserves time to see if it improves but what happens if he doesn’t. If he starts to go into the - WAR territory (he’s like at .5 war fkr season now) do you roll with it or out your team in the best position to try and win games.

McClain has been great all year, abbot has been amazing from the second he was called up. So at some point you have to take a realistic look and say Maybee it’s not that he needs time to adjust its that he’s just overmatched at the moment by big league stuff. And there is no shame in that, big league stuff is amazing and Elly super young and obv super talented but Maybee will need to fix some things in the minors while the reds try to win the division

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

This would be incredible. Im hoping for that as well. Fanatics could use a teaching moment. Strike while the moment is hot. Put them in products ASAP. Dont assume you can cash in, in the future.

I imagine myself as a kid who doesn't know the business of trading cards, wanting a rookie card of Elly De La Cruz, and being told that Topps/Fanatics makes fans and collectors wait until the following year to get one.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Making adjustments to any swing that gets one to the majors is not easy.

Changing attack angle is easier said than done.

This is pretty much the narrative I keep seeing.

Once he changes his attack angle, increases launch angle, reduces ground balls (obvious all related) and reduces his strikeout rate he’ll be fine. Like that’s not super easy to do especially facing guys with filthy stuff that are jsut gonna attack any weakness they see.

Like you said it’s very difficult to make all these changes all while maintaining the elite exit velocity that has made everyoen fall in love with him. Like what happens if he fixes launch angle, fixes attack angle but exit velocity drops significantly as a result

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I imagine myself as a kid who doesn't know the business of trading cards, wanting a rookie card of Elly De La Cruz, and being told that Topps/Fanatics makes fans and collectors wait until the following year to get one.

For a mere $500 you can get 1/200 piece of a base

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Absknicks

@SwingGraphs
Elly De La Cruz is an exciting player..but he has a very big problem..

His attack angle is *2nd lowest* in MLB - only E. Hosmer is lower. This is costing him a whopping 81 pts of xwOBAcon

So unfortunate b/c w/ his above avg VBA, he could easily have top quartile contact quality


This gives me more concern than the K% at the moment. Attack angle is one of the most difficult things for players to correct... just look at Vlad Jr and his GB% problems and how they've limited him.

Now combine a huge K% with a bad attack angle and it's hard to imagine him being even a league average hitter in MLB for a while.

Attack angle? Is that what they're calling bat path nowadays?

Did his 30% strikeout rate in the minor leagues not give you pause? It was only when you saw his attack angle at the big league level and the corresponding very low launch angle that it suddenly dawned on you that he might have some fundamental problems with his swing and approach?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Making adjustments to any swing that gets one to the majors is not easy.

Changing attack angle is easier said than done.

I didn't say it was easy. I said it's one of the easiest adjustments to make. Hitting a baseball is hard. But if you require an adjustment to be made, attack angle is the one I would pick.

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[tjforce]

Originally Posted by seanbros55

There are also an incredibly high number of members here that actively root for 21-year olds to fail, because them thinking “they were right all along” makes them feel better about themselves…

Some folks like to watch the world burn.

Other folks just like to watch folks who make dumb decisions or try and overhype a guy to profit themselves get stuck with the heavy bag.

[Jwax13]

Day off seemed to do him good.

https://twitter.com/reds/status/1683...pbP4Xp4esdQ98A

[Rooftop]

Oh My!

[TheChromeFinish]

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[Jwax13]

456’ !

[smizu1]

Originally Posted by TheChromeFinish

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That's SOO pretty!!

[brios8]

What do we expect to see from him more frequently?

1-4 with a massive HR like yesterday

0-5 with 2 Strikeouts like today

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by brios8

What do we expect to see from him more frequently?

1-4 with a massive HR like yesterday

0-5 with 2 Strikeouts like today

He also had a 406' homer robbed yesterday. We expect something between 2 bombs and 0-4 on average. Which is just fine.

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[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by brios8

What do we expect to see from him more frequently?

1-4 with a massive HR like yesterday

0-5 with 2 Strikeouts like today

It’s not secret that batters will do worse vs elite pitchers but my theory in Elly (for now) is that he will perform significantly worse than average vs elite pitchers.

To test this I tracked his at bats vs guys I’d consider elite. While the sample size isn’t amazing I hav me him at 2/22 with 0 extra base hits and 10 Ks.

That’s basically a sub .100 BA and 12 K/9 where the best pitchers will have an opponent BA of low 200 vs average of all players


Takeaway: if Elly is facing elite pitches the under total bases prop is attractive

[packman80]

Originally Posted by brios8

What do we expect to see from him more frequently?

1-4 with a massive HR like yesterday

0-5 with 2 Strikeouts like today

He's really struggled vs brewers last 3 series vs them I think he went 6-37

[Jman330]

Originally Posted by packman80

He's really struggled vs brewers last 3 series vs them I think he went 6-37

Don’t forget today 1 for 4 (single) 3 strikeouts which if the pitcher who threw him A meatball down 1-2 in the count wasn’t a moron. 1-9 5 strikeouts in less then 24 hours

[boxbuster7]

Man some people just love to hate because they missed the profit window. How about the fact that the kid is only 21 years old and in the middle of a division race?

[oddstuff]

Soto v Acuna, Wander v JRod, now it's Carroll v Elly

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Man some people just love to hate because they missed the profit window. How about the fact that the kid is only 21 years old and in the middle of a division race?

Welcome to Blowout. Where you can't be excited about a player not named Ohtani.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Man some people just love to hate because they missed the profit window. How about the fact that the kid is only 21 years old and in the middle of a division race?

Nobody is hating on him, some people have just posted objective analysis on his performance so far. You could jsut as easily say some people just love to pump to maximize their profit window.

He’s being talked about/and priced accordingly like he’s been one of the best rookies of all time. Yes he’s in the middle of a Penang race but in reality he’s been like the 3rd or 4th (or 5th) best rookie on just the reds team

[49ersSF]

Originally Posted by Bcr

Welcome to Blowout. Where you can't be excited about a player not named Ohtani.

He's not excited about the player. His only concern is to keep up the fake hype in these threads while his "profit window" is open. Most of these rookie threads are just a simple means for people to pump the guy so people go after the bait.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Nobody is hating on him, some people have just posted objective analysis on his performance so far. You could jsut as easily say some people just love to pump to maximize their profit window.

He’s being talked about/and priced accordingly like he’s been one of the best rookies of all time. Yes he’s in the middle of a Penang race but in reality he’s been like the 3rd or 4th (or 5th) best rookie on just the reds team

I never mentioned anything about his prices being rational. I think he is overpriced as well. I sold a bunch of cards before he hit the cycle, stole three bases. etc. Before he exploded.

I just think some people would rather knock what he isn't doing, than see how exciting he is for the game of baseball because they sold too early or missed out entirely. Which is lame.

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

He's not excited about the player. His only concern is to keep up the fake hype in these threads while his "profit window" is open. Most of these rookie threads are just a simple means for people to pump the guy so people go after the bait.

The threads are made to discuss the subject they are about. Rookies are exciting, especially when they start off hot. Not every positive post is pumping and frankly I'd take that over the negativity

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I never mentioned anything about his prices being rational. I think he is overpriced as well. I sold a bunch of cards before he hit the cycle, stole three bases. etc. Before he exploded.

I just think some people would rather knock what he isn't doing, than see how exciting he is for the game of baseball because they sold too early or missed out entirely. Which is lame.

I would say he's had some exciting events, I'm not sure I agree with exciting for the game. Yes, he hit for the cycle very early in his career, but it wasn't a record. Sure, he stole 3 bases in 2 pitches, the third one because the defense slacked off. Ronald Acuna has done that multiple times this season. O'Neil Cruz is another infielder with a rocket for an arm, so that's not something only Elly has. Yes, he's fast, that isn't special. He came into the season as one of the top prospects in the league, right now he's not even the best rookie shortstop on the team.

He's shown potential to be a great player, he just needs to put it all together consistently. When his slump has lasted 13 games or so, which is roughly 1/3 of his total games played, is it still a slump, or could the hot stretch have been the fluke part? He's got a few things he needs to clean up and improve on. And I'm not sure that those things are things you start messing around with at the major league level.