Eloy Jimenez

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Let's hear it.

Cards, 1st Chrome Auto especially, typically go down slower than they go up. When a player gets hot his cards can double overnight. When a player gets cold it's usually a slow dribble down.

For year over year (ie Nov to Nov) typically over half of the players lose money. In 2020 (and likely 2021) it was a little less because the market was up 50%, but it was still something like 40% of players ended up 10% or more down and it was 12 out of 59 that ended up over 30% down. My bet is Eloy's 1st Chrome auto will be less in Nov 2021 than it was in Nov 2020. I'd put those odds at 80%, with very little upside.

On Dec 1 2020 when I took the prices Eloy was at $150. By Feb 1 he was up to $220. By mid Feb I was bidding $240 and getting beat, so he probably peaked around $250. Using the same formula for my sales (six autos, BTW, so not a small sample), he would come in at $190. To get to 30% down he'd have to lose another 45% from where he is now. To get to even he's got another 20-25%. That means it's better to sell Eloy now and buy him back in Oct-Nov, depending on how many you want to get. For reference, that whole Eloy collection I had I put together in two months. ETA: This isn't even accounting for the fact that I can deploy the money on someone healthy where I expect them to go up. I'm still getting Yordan, Devers, and Tucker with pretty good frequency.

For the 2019 RC PSA 10s I am not as familiar with the market, but so far they have followed the 1st Chrome Auto fairly closely. I grabbed the prices of his stuff a few weeks after the 1st Chrome Auto, which is relevant given how fast prices were going up at that time. At that point (mid to late Dec) his prices were;

#670-$55
#202-$70
base refractor-$120

I'm betting his prices fall below those levels. I didn't have any PSA 10 base (just a BGS 9.5), but his base refractors ($147 avg sale on 3) and his Chrome #202 ($80 avg sale on 7) went for more than mid Dec and I suspect they will be less at some point, even accounting the fees I paid for selling.

I will say that I did not expect to take that big of a beating on his 2019 PSA stuff. I had a Heritage purple refractor and two silver pack refractors that did ok, but everything else was at least ~10% less than I thought it would be.

[thenwhatjk]

That sure is a lot of typing. I’m seeing a PSA 10 2017 base auto sell for 605 on 4/1 and 470 on 3/30. That seems fine, no?

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Cards, 1st Chrome Auto especially, typically go down slower than they go up. When a player gets hot his cards can double overnight. When a player gets cold it's usually a slow dribble down.

For year over year (ie Nov to Nov) typically over half of the players lose money. In 2020 (and likely 2021) it was a little less because the market was up 50%, but it was still something like 40% of players ended up 10% or more down and it was 12 out of 59 that ended up over 30% down. My bet is Eloy's 1st Chrome auto will be less in Nov 2021 than it was in Nov 2020. I'd put those odds at 80%, with very little upside.

On Dec 1 2020 when I took the prices Eloy was at $150. By Feb 1 he was up to $220. By mid Feb I was bidding $240 and getting beat, so he probably peaked around $250. Using the same formula for my sales (six autos, BTW, so not a small sample), he would come in at $190. To get to 30% down he'd have to lose another 45% from where he is now. To get to even he's got another 20-25%. That means it's better to sell Eloy now and buy him back in Oct-Nov, depending on how many you want to get. For reference, that whole Eloy collection I had I put together in two months. ETA: This isn't even accounting for the fact that I can deploy the money on someone healthy where I expect them to go up. I'm still getting Yordan, Devers, and Tucker with pretty good frequency.

For the 2019 RC PSA 10s I am not as familiar with the market, but so far they have followed the 1st Chrome Auto fairly closely. I grabbed the prices of his stuff a few weeks after the 1st Chrome Auto, which is relevant given how fast prices were going up at that time. At that point (mid to late Dec) his prices were;

#670-$55
#202-$70
base refractor-$120

I'm betting his prices fall below those levels. I didn't have any PSA 10 base (just a BGS 9.5), but his base refractors ($147 avg sale on 3) and his Chrome #202 ($80 avg sale on 7) went for more than mid Dec and I suspect they will be less at some point, even accounting the fees I paid for selling.

I will say that I did not expect to take that big of a beating on his 2019 PSA stuff. I had a Heritage purple refractor and two silver pack refractors that did ok, but everything else was at least ~10% less than I thought it would be.

Thanks makes sense that his prices will slowly drop from here on out. My rationale is that as soon as he comes back, his prices will be higher than they are now, which may or may not be true.

[thenwhatjk]

Ok I’m seeing you had a PSA 10 ref auto finish for 523 when you paid 565 for it 2.5 months ago. I dunno man, I think we’ve all done far, far worse than that

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by thenwhatjk

That sure is a lot of typing. I’m seeing a PSA 10 2017 base auto sell for 605 on 4/1 and 470 on 3/30. That seems fine, no?

I take a wider range of samples. For example from my auctions, the PSA base went for $474 (good), but the PSA 10 Refractor only went for 527 (bad). I add in the BGS stuff too which was also a mixed bag.

Originally Posted by thenwhatjk

Ok I’m seeing you had a PSA 10 ref auto finish for 523 when you paid 565 for it 2.5 months ago. I dunno man, I think we’ve all done far, far worse than that

No doubt. I was very lucky in that I was the guy driving up the prices early in the offseason. The six 1st Chrome Auto actually sold for $10 more than I paid, so I was just out the fees. It was the 2019 stuff where I took a beating...although still not too bad since even that stuff had gone up 20% since my last buy. This would have been much worse in any year other than 2021 where the entire market is already up >50% since my first buy.

[thenwhatjk]

Was all your 2019 stuff high pop or was there some rare stuff?

[SICKMADE]

I opened a box of 2019 Topps Chrome Sapphire and pulled his auto 2 days before he injured himself.... And I had a offer someone who wanted to buy for $500🤦

[SICKMADE]

What is the consensus? Sell and get what you can for it now? Is it worth grading his sapphire auto 1st or just get rid of it.

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by SICKMADE

I opened a box of 2019 Topps Chrome Sapphire and pulled his auto 2 days before he injured himself.... And I had a offer someone who wanted to buy for $500🤦

You saved yourself some trouble because if it was eBay, you’d be sorting your way through a return right about now.

[towerymt]

I pulled any Eloy cards I had listed and I will hold until he comes back to the field. This does not seem like a good time to sell. If you can sell any other cards instead, that's what I would do (and what I am doing). For example, Austin Meadows.

I got these three back a couple months ago...

[doowopbruce]

What if he doesn't come back until next year? How will that affect his cards? It's a very real possibility.

[thenwhatjk]

Anyone have any idea what kind of effect there’ll be on his cards if he never plays again?

[pewe]

Originally Posted by thenwhatjk

Anyone have any idea what kind of effect there’ll be on his cards if he never plays again?

It’s like great artists... when they die, their work skyrockets in value...


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[noaskiecards]

Originally Posted by pewe

It’s like great artists... when they die, their work skyrockets in value...


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True if Eloy retired tomorrow, I can see stuff doubling at least for a few weeks, maybe cooling down after the initial fomo

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[pewe]

Originally Posted by noaskiecards

True if Eloy retired tomorrow, I can see stuff doubling at least for a few weeks, maybe cooling down after the initial fomo

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All news is good news when it comes to publicity and mindshare


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by thenwhatjk

Was all your 2019 stuff high pop or was there some rare stuff?

Most of it was super high pop, but a few 1st Chrome Gem Auto /499. Regardless of whether that meets your criteria of rare, I'd say it was all stuff that is easy to sell (ie it's fine to run at auction). If you're looking at a /25 or less I think you're probably stuck with that sucker.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by towerymt

I pulled any Eloy cards I had listed and I will hold until he comes back to the field. This does not seem like a good time to sell. If you can sell any other cards instead, that's what I would do (and what I am doing). For example, Austin Meadows.

I got these three back a couple months ago...

If you have money holding can be ok. In my position, I was out of cash so every dollar will get redeployed. I'd also say you've got to commit to holding until the 2022 All Star Break. It might not take that long for him to get back to where he is now, but if it does you've got to give him time to rake.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Most of it was super high pop, but a few 1st Chrome Gem Auto /499. Regardless of whether that meets your criteria of rare, I'd say it was all stuff that is easy to sell (ie it's fine to run at auction). If you're looking at a /25 or less I think you're probably stuck with that sucker.

What makes the #/25 or rarer different?


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by pewe

What makes the #/25 or rarer different?


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From my experience doing The Price Index once you get in to that low of a level of population the price variance can get crazy. Let's say for example you have a card with an implied worth of $100. For the more common cards it will go for between $85 and $115 at auction whether he's hot or cold. If you have a /25 or less that has an implied worth of $100, a guy that is hot it might go as high as $200. If he's cold it might go for $40. I imagine you see the same sort of effect with Black Label, another card that doesn't get into The Index.

It's just a lot tougher to sell those extremely rare cards relative to the more common cards because you can't run it at auction.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

From my experience doing The Price Index once you get in to that low of a level of population the price variance can get crazy. Let's say for example you have a card with an implied worth of $100. For the more common cards it will go for between $85 and $115 at auction whether he's hot or cold. If you have a /25 or less that has an implied worth of $100, a guy that is hot it might go as high as $200. If he's cold it might go for $40. I imagine you see the same sort of effect with Black Label, another card that doesn't get into The Index.

It's just a lot tougher to sell those extremely rare cards relative to the more common cards because you can't run it at auction.

My ears perk up as I almost exclusively collect low print run cards... hmmm...


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[ewokpelts]

Originally Posted by noaskiecards

True if Eloy retired tomorrow, I can see stuff doubling at least for a few weeks, maybe cooling down after the initial fomo

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You’re joking, right?!

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by pewe

My ears perk up as I almost exclusively collect low print run cards... hmmm...


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It's a liquidity issue, I think. There's so few available that when the guy is hot someone can/will get desperate and pony up. When he's cold you have to sit there with your BIN/BO and hope somebody shows interest at a time when there isn't much interest.

[Banks8181]

I got this ~2 months ago pretty cheap. I think his prices have actually gone up lately


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[WaxPax]

Got this redemption back right after he was hurt....Thanks Topps

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[ZappBrannigan]

Originally Posted by WaxPax

Got this redemption back right after he was hurt....Thanks Topps

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Looks like he signed that with his teeth.