What’s it going to take to revitalize the NBA card hobby?

[jhssketchcards]

Just my opinion…

The last real, true superstars come out of drafts are:
Top Tier- Jokic. Luka, Tatum. Giannis
Second Tier- Edwards, Morant, Trae, Booker, Embiid, Cunningham, Banchero, Ball and several more.

It has been several drafts where we saw a player come into the league and consistently electrify the league like the Top Tier group I listed. All of the guys above Re tremendous players but being good at a sport doesn’t translate to hobby stardom.

The past 5 years we’ve seen a huge amount of cash thrown at Wemby, Holmgren, Ball, Zion, Morant etc with very little to zero return to hype prices.
I’m sure many here, including myself, can tell stories of what we spent or “invested” in young, unproven lottery picks only to have injuries, poor performance or discipline problems derail said player we targeted.

The truth is trading cards has become a stock market, and eBay is the ticker. Prices are watched daily and in a given 24-hr period we can see cards jump from the 25 cent box to $5 box in a matter of the time it takes to commute home from work. $50 cards go to $100 in a day or so. Baseball is even more demonstrative of this with games almost every night. The NBA tries desperately to cultivate and incubate the “next” guy but inevitably he either a: is a bust or b: becomes a very dependable, even All-Star player, but has zero seismic shift in the hobby. It’s interesting that the last year, as far as rookies taking a league by storm, aside from Wemby, the most exciting thing to happen to professional basketball cards is Caitlin Clark.
Are these players just not good enough? Too small a sample size? Collector ADHD?

From 2020-2024, the NFL has seen QBs like:
Burrow
Hurts
Herbert
Tua
Lawrence
Wilson
Fields
Lance
Jones
Mills
Pickett
Willis
Purdy
Stroud
Richardson
Levis
Daniels
Nix
Penix

Just to name a few. Only two on that list has been to a SB, and 1 won it. I get it that it takes time, and football is obviously different, but I use these to illustrate the vast hype money that went into and stayed with these guys, versus what their prices are now. It wasn’t ling ago Hurts was third fiddle behind Burrow and Herbert, but now he has surpassed them in some collecting circles. Think about where prices were on most of these guys compared to now. It’s crazy.

Personally I’d rather spend money on proven, sure fire players that have established hobby stardom rather than sinking money into a guy who hasn’t even made an NBA All-Star team yet. It’s the sane in each sport though. But as long as suckers are willing to fork over $$$ for guys like Cooper Flagg, it will stay the same. Problem is, we son’t know if hime will be the next Jayson Tatum, or the next Christian Laettner.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by mfw13

If only what you said was true.

Look at what Fanatics did with Heritage HHN.....look at all the gamblers who support breakers.....they all still believe that artificial scarcity = value.

And collectability is becoming largely irrelevant as breakers/gamblers/investors take over the hobby....all that matters is profit potential.....just witness all the people who still prepay for products before checklists are released.

Seems like you're conflating Gambling with Collecting.

Those junk LeBron and Steph /50 that nobody wants aren't being collected. And honestly, it's probably not what the people breaking want either. It's just the filler that gets put in while everybody chases the 1/1s or whatever it is that really matters.

Otherwise, those /50s wouldn't be selling so cheap on the secondary market.

[kwamebrown]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

Just my opinion…

The last real, true superstars come out of drafts are:
Top Tier- Jokic. Luka, Tatum. Giannis
Second Tier- Edwards, Morant, Trae, Booker, Embiid, Cunningham, Banchero, Ball and several more.

It has been several drafts where we saw a player come into the league and consistently electrify the league like the Top Tier group I listed. All of the guys above Re tremendous players but being good at a sport doesn’t translate to hobby stardom.

The past 5 years we’ve seen a huge amount of cash thrown at Wemby, Holmgren, Ball, Zion, Morant etc with very little to zero return to hype prices.
I’m sure many here, including myself, can tell stories of what we spent or “invested” in young, unproven lottery picks only to have injuries, poor performance or discipline problems derail said player we targeted.

The truth is trading cards has become a stock market, and eBay is the ticker. Prices are watched daily and in a given 24-hr period we can see cards jump from the 25 cent box to $5 box in a matter of the time it takes to commute home from work. $50 cards go to $100 in a day or so. Baseball is even more demonstrative of this with games almost every night. The NBA tries desperately to cultivate and incubate the “next” guy but inevitably he either a: is a bust or b: becomes a very dependable, even All-Star player, but has zero seismic shift in the hobby. It’s interesting that the last year, as far as rookies taking a league by storm, aside from Wemby, the most exciting thing to happen to professional basketball cards is Caitlin Clark.
Are these players just not good enough? Too small a sample size? Collector ADHD?

From 2020-2024, the NFL has seen QBs like:
Burrow
Hurts
Herbert
Tua
Lawrence
Wilson
Fields
Lance
Jones
Mills
Pickett
Willis
Purdy
Stroud
Richardson
Levis
Daniels
Nix
Penix

Just to name a few. Only two on that list has been to a SB, and 1 won it. I get it that it takes time, and football is obviously different, but I use these to illustrate the vast hype money that went into and stayed with these guys, versus what their prices are now. It wasn’t ling ago Hurts was third fiddle behind Burrow and Herbert, but now he has surpassed them in some collecting circles. Think about where prices were on most of these guys compared to now. It’s crazy.

Personally I’d rather spend money on proven, sure fire players that have established hobby stardom rather than sinking money into a guy who hasn’t even made an NBA All-Star team yet. It’s the sane in each sport though. But as long as suckers are willing to fork over $$$ for guys like Cooper Flagg, it will stay the same. Problem is, we son’t know if hime will be the next Jayson Tatum, or the next Christian Laettner.


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SGA is a legit superstar and should be in the top tier. His prices have been reaching all-time highs recently and a lot of his cards have doubled/tripled in price over the last year. I think Cade Cunningham has a chance at reaching the top tier in the next year or two as well.

All the super-hyped prospects you mentioned like Wemby, Zion, Morant, Ball, Flagg, it's really difficult to see a return because their prices started out so high. To me, it's all about finding cheap, underrated prospects that fly under the radar who have a chance at developing into superstars. Guys like Giannis and Jokic were dirt cheap if you bought in their 1st/2nd/3rd year.

Overproduction of cards is also a huge factor. There's a billion Wemby rc cards on the market. I just saw a post today that Topps is releasing a new 2023-24 product with Wemby "RC" cards in 2025. I'm going to assume a good majority of it will end up being worthless junk in the future. Same thing happened in the 90s, only a few select cards/players/sets are still desirable/collectable today and the rest end up as low end or worthless junk. I think modern cards will have the same fate, if you collect the right sets of the right players then those cards will end up increasing in value in the future. What sets and which players is anyone's guess but that's what makes it fun for me.

As to what will revitalize the hobby, it looks like the sports card business is booming for the card manufacturers. Every overpriced junk set they put out is being gobbled up and opened in mass quantities. Compare the print run of 2012-2015 prizm to 2017-2025 prizm and the amount is staggering and continues to increase every year. There's more collectors now than there was 10-15 years ago. I think the hobby is doing just fine from the manufacturer's viewpoint. From a collector's viewpoint, it just means there's way more junk to sift through to find the real gems.

[volblorx8634]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Seems like you're conflating Gambling with Collecting.

Those junk LeBron and Steph /50 that nobody wants aren't being collected. And honestly, it's probably not what the people breaking want either. It's just the filler that gets put in while everybody chases the 1/1s or whatever it is that really matters.

Otherwise, those /50s wouldn't be selling so cheap on the secondary market.

And I think you're conflating collectors looking to optimize the value of their future collection (no negative connotation intended) with collectors who don't really care.

The most recent Panini non-GU lebron cards /75 and /50 on ebay sold for $50 each. And Curry's most recent /50 was $75 (prizm) and $25 (non-prizm). I know that's not a ton of money, but some people spend $75 on cards in an entire month. Those are cards people want. They may not be the ones that people think will become worth $100+ in the future, but people want those cards. And it's a great thing that a LeBron or Steph collector doesn't have to pay hundreds for a card /50 because they're competing with everyone who thinks they'll appreciate in value moving forward. Not every collector needs their collection to become significant.

Originally Posted by kwamebrown

As to what will revitalize the hobby, it looks like the sports card business is booming for the card manufacturers. Every overpriced junk set they put out is being gobbled up and opened in mass quantities. Compare the print run of 2012-2015 prizm to 2017-2025 prizm and the amount is staggering and continues to increase every year. There's more collectors now than there was 10-15 years ago. I think the hobby is doing just fine from the manufacturer's viewpoint. From a collector's viewpoint, it just means there's way more junk to sift through to find the real gems.

I agree with the number of collectors probably being higher. Also, one man's junk is another man's gems

[Archangel1775]

LeBron has to retire. The only talking points for the general audience is when he flops. It reflects badly on the NBA and it would help that its reviewable during the game, by both officials and opposing coaches and that players get a technical foul for it. At this point, he's got a nickname, a Barbie doll(real or not) and it happens so much his own teammates don't even pay attention to it. Let the young guns have the stage. Luka, Donovan, SGA, Wemby, etc.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

Just my opinion…

The last real, true superstars come out of drafts are:
Top Tier- Jokic. Luka, Tatum. Giannis
Second Tier- Edwards, Morant, Trae, Booker, Embiid, Cunningham, Banchero, Ball and several more.

It has been several drafts where we saw a player come into the league and consistently electrify the league like the Top Tier group I listed. All of the guys above Re tremendous players but being good at a sport doesn’t translate to hobby stardom.

The past 5 years we’ve seen a huge amount of cash thrown at Wemby, Holmgren, Ball, Zion, Morant etc with very little to zero return to hype prices.
I’m sure many here, including myself, can tell stories of what we spent or “invested” in young, unproven lottery picks only to have injuries, poor performance or discipline problems derail said player we targeted.

The truth is trading cards has become a stock market, and eBay is the ticker. Prices are watched daily and in a given 24-hr period we can see cards jump from the 25 cent box to $5 box in a matter of the time it takes to commute home from work. $50 cards go to $100 in a day or so. Baseball is even more demonstrative of this with games almost every night. The NBA tries desperately to cultivate and incubate the “next” guy but inevitably he either a: is a bust or b: becomes a very dependable, even All-Star player, but has zero seismic shift in the hobby. It’s interesting that the last year, as far as rookies taking a league by storm, aside from Wemby, the most exciting thing to happen to professional basketball cards is Caitlin Clark.
Are these players just not good enough? Too small a sample size? Collector ADHD?

From 2020-2024, the NFL has seen QBs like:
Burrow
Hurts
Herbert
Tua
Lawrence
Wilson
Fields
Lance
Jones
Mills
Pickett
Willis
Purdy
Stroud
Richardson
Levis
Daniels
Nix
Penix

Just to name a few. Only two on that list has been to a SB, and 1 won it. I get it that it takes time, and football is obviously different, but I use these to illustrate the vast hype money that went into and stayed with these guys, versus what their prices are now. It wasn’t ling ago Hurts was third fiddle behind Burrow and Herbert, but now he has surpassed them in some collecting circles. Think about where prices were on most of these guys compared to now. It’s crazy.

Personally I’d rather spend money on proven, sure fire players that have established hobby stardom rather than sinking money into a guy who hasn’t even made an NBA All-Star team yet. It’s the sane in each sport though. But as long as suckers are willing to fork over $$$ for guys like Cooper Flagg, it will stay the same. Problem is, we son’t know if hime will be the next Jayson Tatum, or the next Christian Laettner.


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If we're talking about the money invested into cards specifically and not collectability, I would estimate that 80% of the money in cards goes into QBs with the remaining 20% split between every other position. That's important because as you pointed out, you only need to read down the list of hyped or previously hyped QBs to see that nearly all of them have lost most or all of their value from their peak position. This makes NFL cards extremely volatile because either your cards likely won't see appreciation (in the case of putting it into other positions) or you're betting that the guy you think will be good at QB will actually see success, which is unlikely. So if you want to put money into somewhere "safe" at QB, you pretty much have four choices: Mahomes, Lamar, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow (Burrow being the shakiest one right now).

In the NBA this is less of a problem because it's way more of a positionless sport at this point, and even previously less-collected positions like center have big stars at the position now (wemby and jokic being the big ones).

Like another poster mentioned, I think it's a better idea to try and find players that fly under the radar because another player might be mega hyped (Flagg and Wemby are great examples of this). This is nearly impossible in football cards because every quarterback is hyped, and only quarterbacks see meaningful appreciation. The only exceptions are guys that were drafted in late rounds and maybe see action as a backup or as a spot start late in the season, but even then late round quarterbacks are a total crapshoot when it comes to them being actually good enough to start. In general, the NFL is absolutely terrible at evaluating QB talent.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by kipgen

If we're talking about the money invested into cards specifically and not collectability, I would estimate that 80% of the money in cards goes into QBs with the remaining 20% split between every other position. That's important because as you pointed out, you only need to read down the list of hyped or previously hyped QBs to see that nearly all of them have lost most or all of their value from their peak position. This makes NFL cards extremely volatile because either your cards likely won't see appreciation (in the case of putting it into other positions) or you're betting that the guy you think will be good at QB will actually see success, which is unlikely. So if you want to put money into somewhere "safe" at QB, you pretty much have four choices: Mahomes, Lamar, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow (Burrow being the shakiest one right now).

In the NBA this is less of a problem because it's way more of a positionless sport at this point, and even previously less-collected positions like center have big stars at the position now (wemby and jokic being the big ones).

Like another poster mentioned, I think it's a better idea to try and find players that fly under the radar because another player might be mega hyped (Flagg and Wemby are great examples of this). This is nearly impossible in football cards because every quarterback is hyped, and only quarterbacks see meaningful appreciation. The only exceptions are guys that were drafted in late rounds and maybe see action as a backup or as a spot start late in the season, but even then late round quarterbacks are a total crapshoot when it comes to them being actually good enough to start. In general, the NFL is absolutely terrible at evaluating QB talent.

To me this is the exact opposite of the way you want to approach QBs in football. Even those under the radar guys sell for way too much and the chance they bust or just don't matter is way to high.....

a much better idea is to learn the markets of the best of the best players (Brady, Mahomes, etc), identify the right cards, and have cash ready when it's the right time to buy.

It's what I've done with those two QBs that I learned from not doing it for 20 year with MJ and LeBron

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by tjforce

To me this is the exact opposite of the way you want to approach QBs in football. Even those under the radar guys sell for way too much and the chance they bust or just don't matter is way to high.....

a much better idea is to learn the markets of the best of the best players (Brady, Mahomes, etc), identify the right cards, and have cash ready when it's the right time to buy.

It's what I've done with those two QBs that I learned from not doing it for 20 year with MJ and LeBron

I should've clarified that's the approach I take with basketball, not football

If you read on I agree with what you say which is that it's basically impossible to prospect QBs because even the bad ones are mega expensive

[Nomad]

Just invest in a talent, wait till he's prepped to be a prime ball handler in a playoff, and pray he hits a game 7 series winner or sumink.

[Torro]

All this prospecting works only if starting prices are very low, buying hyped players who never even played at extremely high prices is really stupid, how much more expensive can it get even if they live up to the expectations (which happens very rarely). There is no room for growth but a lot of risk that the prices will come down, what’s the point?

[KhalDrogo]

It’s beyond saving.

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by Torro

All this prospecting works only if starting prices are very low, buying hyped players who never even played at extremely high prices is really stupid, how much more expensive can it get even if they live up to the expectations (which happens very rarely). There is no room for growth but a lot of risk that the prices will come down, what’s the point?

If I can buy a '20-21 Nesmith Optic true gold rookie for $60 right off the Bay in 2025, when he is making a serious bid for a third ECF appearance, prospecting is not only very much alive but there are dozens of such opportunities.

It would only take the emergence of a half dozen serious collectors in Indiana, not even Nesmith fans, but team collectors, to support 5x on that card and 20x in a decade.

I agree with you partially on straight-out-the-box rookies. But for fifth year players who were never hyped, skies the limit.

And what you say there only applies to the really hyped players. Cause the cards that matter for all others, you want to snare right when they are released. Otherwise they will get snagged and never show up again. Admittedly, could still buy the Origins 1-1 booklet for the $800 I paid (or less), but there is only one. It is locked up.

So why didn't Double A stock rise last year, when he say single handedly fended off the surging Knicks for five minutes in the third, Game 7 MSG? Defending Brunson and scoring 8 unanswered. For one all of New York hated him in the moment and would spit on his card. Second, no one watching national TV knew him. He was just some upstart who had a reputation of crashing and causing injuries. He only started making track meet runs to the basket when the pass options, which otherwise always setting screens for others, ran out.

Now he is one of the team leaders on both sides. And the Pacers a way more formidable threat. Still a 6 percent chance of making it to the finals, but that's the same as odds makers give the Knicks and any other good team not named OKC, Boston, or Cavs.

Patience is the key, and taking time to tell a story, educate.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

LeBron has to retire. The only talking points for the general audience is when he flops. It reflects badly on the NBA and it would help that its reviewable during the game, by both officials and opposing coaches and that players get a technical foul for it. At this point, he's got a nickname, a Barbie doll(real or not) and it happens so much his own teammates don't even pay attention to it. Let the young guns have the stage. Luka, Donovan, SGA, Wemby, etc.

This couldn't be any further from the truth.


For all the hate Lebron gets here, he is universally loved and collected by the basketball world. He is still immensely popular.


When he retires the game will suffer even more unless someone can replace him.

[mjmoney23]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Seems like you're conflating Gambling with Collecting.

Those junk LeBron and Steph /50 that nobody wants aren't being collected. And honestly, it's probably not what the people breaking want either. It's just the filler that gets put in while everybody chases the 1/1s or whatever it is that really matters.

Otherwise, those /50s wouldn't be selling so cheap on the secondary market.

I think another wrinkle to this is how many other parallels are </50? Is there /35, /25, /15, /10, /5, /3, and a few /1? That has to lower the value a bit as well as its not like early 2000s Upper Deck/Topps products where the /50 is the hardest to come across where as now there are multiple variations with lower serial number.

[r338]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

LeBron has to retire. The only talking points for the general audience is when he flops. It reflects badly on the NBA and it would help that its reviewable during the game, by both officials and opposing coaches and that players get a technical foul for it. At this point, he's got a nickname, a Barbie doll(real or not) and it happens so much his own teammates don't even pay attention to it. Let the young guns have the stage. Luka, Donovan, SGA, Wemby, etc.

There is no question the NBA and the networks want to see the Lakers in the Finals.

A likely scenario is Cleveland and OKC. That would be a complete disaster in terms of ratings.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by mjmoney23

I think another wrinkle to this is how many other parallels are </50? Is there /35, /25, /15, /10, /5, /3, and a few /1? That has to lower the value a bit as well as its not like early 2000s Upper Deck/Topps products where the /50 is the hardest to come across where as now there are multiple variations with lower serial number.

The people spending big money on these see right through all the useless parallels and focus on the few that matter.

You can come up with 100 different colors, but there's always demand for True Golds /10, 1/1 Blacks, Nebulas, and the really tough to obtain stuff.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

LeBron has to retire. The only talking points for the general audience is when he flops. It reflects badly on the NBA and it would help that its reviewable during the game, by both officials and opposing coaches and that players get a technical foul for it. At this point, he's got a nickname, a Barbie doll(real or not) and it happens so much his own teammates don't even pay attention to it. Let the young guns have the stage. Luka, Donovan, SGA, Wemby, etc.

Do we consider 28 young?


Also..if the only talking point about LeBron you are seeing is about his flops, then I regret inform that the matrix has you. The type of media that you're subscribed to/ targeted with is just a giant troll loop and you should explore ways to get out of it.

[codered]

I think it will be good when LeBron retires. Like the band Cinderella said “don’t know what you got till it’s gone”

There us to be some hate for Kobe even in his late playing days but after he retired that seemed to disappear. I remember wanting to pick a up Kobe auto before he passed but I kept thinking I’d have time. He had plenty of autos in the $100-150 range. I had been looking at a few different ones on COMC about 2-3 months before he passed but was waiting for the “right” one.

When LeBron retires it will really give people a chance to appreciate his greatness. A little time away from the spotlight will give people a chance to forget he’s kind of a tool. I think we will see a nice gradual increase in his prices once he retires, especially older pre panini stuff


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by codered

I think it will be good when LeBron retires. Like the band Cinderella said “don’t know what you got till it’s gone”

There us to be some hate for Kobe even in his late playing days but after he retired that seemed to disappear. I remember wanting to pick a up Kobe auto before he passed but I kept thinking I’d have time. He had plenty of autos in the $100-150 range. I had been looking at a few different ones on COMC about 2-3 months before he passed but was waiting for the “right” one.

When LeBron retires it will really give people a chance to appreciate his greatness. A little time away from the spotlight will give people a chance to forget he’s kind of a tool. I think we will see a nice gradual increase in his prices once he retires, especially older pre panini stuff

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LOL, once a tool, always a tool.

#nevarforget

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The people spending big money on these see right through all the useless parallels and focus on the few that matter.

You can come up with 100 different colors, but there's always demand for True Golds /10, 1/1 Blacks, Nebulas, and the really tough to obtain stuff.

This may be your focus.

This is a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of the 2025 NBA basketball card market. It's kinda like talking real estate to someone who owns ocean front property in Santa Monica.

True health of a market is gauged by looking at the market for that era's commodity card(s). In 2000, what were 1996 Topps Chrome Kobes doing. In 2006, what were 03/04 LeBron Chromes/SPAs/SPX/Finest/any numbered rookie doing. In 09/10, what were 07 Durants and 08 Rose cards doing from Chromes to entry autos. All the while, what were MJ autos doing. How rapidly are these cards moving, how volatile are their prices over time.

For decades, prices, volume of transactions, everything, was quite stable. Prices aside, for decades, your average Joe collector could walk into a Wallyworld and have a chance at pulling the hot young buck name from a $3-$5 pack of cards, pick up a $5 magazine and see if it has up arrows. Very stable market. Very engaging market.

Today, ALL prices crash, anything that was good and old (90s/00s/10s), doesn't transact at any volume of significance anymore, especially raw. The well is dry. The only things that transact at volumes of significance to the average Joe collector are new shiny things that Poopini and botox man put out. None of those new things are remotely interesting in any way to the masses.

Now...after mentioning all of that, we can now move on to mentioning the NBA's identity crisis. As if the plumbing system of the modern day NBA card market wasn't bad enough, we can now mention the headwinds of a lack of GOAT level player assuming the mantle as the new heir to the face of the league.

The plumbing is structurally broken since 2020 for NBA cards, both modern and new. Yield chasing institutional money is the cause. This is the reality of many markets post 2020, for better or for worse.

Honestly if Wemby can't do it, I don't see anythig that can (short of new MJ/Kobe cards being produced but as mentioned this will never happen, botox boi has alluded to having no relationship with Jordan and I don't see one billionaire giving his rights to another billionaire to make money off his likeness for peanuts).

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

This couldn't be any further from the truth.


For all the hate Lebron gets here, he is universally loved and collected by the basketball world. He is still immensely popular.


When he retires the game will suffer even more unless someone can replace him.

Originally Posted by r338

There is no question the NBA and the networks want to see the Lakers in the Finals.

A likely scenario is Cleveland and OKC. That would be a complete disaster in terms of ratings.

Originally Posted by tjforce

Also..if the only talking point about LeBron you are seeing is about his flops, then I regret inform that the matrix has you. The type of media that you're subscribed to/ targeted with is just a giant troll loop and you should explore ways to get out of it.

The game is already suffering enough. A big change needs to be made. The NBA is bigger than one player. When the network headlines are dominated by off-the court drama instead of say something like a 60 point Triple Double, its time for change.

No doubt LeBron does some great things on the court at 40 years old. But like I said, its time to hang them up and let the young guns take the stage. Yes, he's scored a lot of points, fantastic but what was the big headline this year? The Lakers acquiring Luka, the future franchise and many would argue is the franchise player right now. I'm in Southern California, the general Lakers fan I'm around dislike that he lays on the court for a long period of time after getting knocked over/falling down. Between that, his previous demanding nature and his son's drama, it's not representative of Lakers basketball. The executives knew that and that's why they didn't "clear it with LeBron" to get Luka. I'm not blind to the algorithm and I can still see what happens on the court. Of course, the Lakers have a chance this year especially with Luka and people want to see it. You'd be nuts as a fan or investor not to but its gonna take the Luka show to get there.

But yeah, I'm a bit bias as a Warriors fan but that doesn't mean I'm wrong!

[hermanotarjeta]

Caitlin Clark and the WNBA has been overshadowing the boys this year and there feels to be more excitement over the WNBA draft than the NBA draft.

Even from the cardboard perspective, the rate of growth and popularity of WNBA cards has gone in the opposite direction of NBA card interest, which has clearly been suffering.

This may be one of the worst NBA cardboard offseasons we have seen in decades.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Today, ALL prices crash, anything that was good and old (90s/00s/10s), doesn't transact at any volume of significance anymore, especially raw. The well is dry. The only things that transact at volumes of significance to the average Joe collector are new shiny things that Poopini and botox man put out. None of those new things are remotely interesting in any way to the masses.

This sounds almost no different that back in 1994 when everyone was was collecting Grant Hill base rookies (soon to be worthless) and shiny Shaq inserts that came 1:6 packs or if you were lucky, 1:24 packs (soon to be worthless).

And years later, 99% of it is worthless. It's the same game. If you were paying premium for base Beam Teams and Topps Black Golds in 1994, its not much different than paying premium for Downtowns or base Kabooms now. The key back then, and is still now, to find the rarest stuff, get the right players, and hold on. Back then it meant finding a way to go get a PMG, Credentials, or 1 in a million Jordan insert that you could never find. It was hard to do then and relatively expensive too.

If you were like me and had a binder full of 90s cards from your childhood, they're pretty much worthless now (fun to look through, though). Same thing with stuff now. Either find a way to get the important stuff, or just accepting the fact that new cards are a depreciating asset and they are mostly meant to be enjoyed.


The game hasn't changed in the last ~30 years, and I of all people would be the one who understands it.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by tjforce

This sounds almost no different that back in 1994 when everyone was was collecting Grant Hill base rookies (soon to be worthless) and shiny Shaq inserts that came 1:6 packs or if you were lucky, 1:24 packs (soon to be worthless).

And years later, 99% of it is worthless. It's the same game. If you were paying premium for base Beam Teams and Topps Black Golds in 1994, its not much different than paying premium for Downtowns or base Kabooms now. The key back then, and is still now, to find the rarest stuff, get the right players, and hold on. Back then it meant finding a way to go get a PMG, Credentials, or 1 in a million Jordan insert that you could never find. It was hard to do then and relatively expensive too.

If you were like me and had a binder full of 90s cards from your childhood, they're pretty much worthless now (fun to look through, though). Same thing with stuff now. Either find a way to get the important stuff, or just accepting the fact that new cards are a depreciating asset and they are mostly meant to be enjoyed.


The game hasn't changed in the last ~30 years, and I of all people would be the one who understands it.

I'll agree and disagree.

Yes, precisely, this is almost exactly like 1993 and 1994. Almost nothing produced is interesting except a few shiny new rookies (Grant Hill, Jason Kidd), sprinkle in a few years old Shaq UD rookies, sweet Pennys, MJ beam teams, 89 David Robinson Hoops and the rest is MJ base/fleer.

I will 100% disagree when you say the game hasn't changed in the last 30 years. From 1997 - 4th or 5th year of Panini era, but really end of UD, almost EVERYTHING in the basketball card market was interesting:
-Game Used were interesting (jerseys, patches, floors, shoes, nets, basketballs, towels)
-Numbered Rookies in base sets were interesting (98/99 SPA)
-Autographed rookies in base sets were interesting (99/00 SPX)
-Autographed GU rookies in base sets were interesting (00/01 SPX)
-Refractors were interesting, because they weren't DEI paralleled to death
-Commodity base rookie cards were interesting, EVEN non shiny ones! Manufacturers actually cared about non shiny sets and those sets were more valuable than shiny sets
-Lottery box products like UC/Exquisite/1st entrants of Poopini were interesting
-Most insert sets were interesting
-Textures of cards were interesting (foils, etchings, layers, bubbles (purposeful))
-Die cut shapes were quite interesting
-Diversity of product lines were interesting (flagship, chromed flagship, photography sets like SC and UD flagship, everything Fleer/Skybox)
-Autographed and GU subjects in product checklists were interesting. More stars and HOFers, less future G leaguers pizza delivery drivers
-Prices of wax were interesting
-90s inserts were still quite common and traded so the entire 90s secondary market was interesting
-and yes of course almost everything rare and highly coveted is and was at all times interesting as it always has and always will be**** This one asterisk is a tiny one of many other subpoints that created a thriving robust NBA market.

Interesting, did you know that a Marcus Fizer Topps Chrome rookie refractor is on eBay right now with multiple bids > $5. I'm amazed, why? Because it's /199, he has absolutely no market value, but that one card of an obscure Bulls failed draft pick 20+ years ago is more interesting than a vast majority of recently released shiny numbered junk cards from today's era. 97-2014 is still very interesting, and almost none of it's good characteristics are present in today's market, without even factoring in the quality of the player today, nor the price one has to pay for NBA licensed cards.

[Nomad]

I disagree so strongly with this. I think a few classic inserts and card design slipped into every year of Panini. Some of their best is just as good as the classic 90s three-brand chaos. Idea for another five prime...