First Buzz: 2023 Topps Series 2 baseball cards

[cj828282]

Carroll was confirmed to be in S2.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by ClevelandIC

Fair enough, I have no idea what you expect.

Let's say someone had an average case and listed every single card in a timely matter - I would guess they made $100-$400 per case (I would guess I made a little more than this, I have nothing to back it up)

Premium opened 40 cases and while we say $100-$400 on average case I would guess even the worst case possible he still makes money. Over 40 cases he probably has singles that sold for over $300+ maybe even $500+

His hours are not equal to someone doing one case vs just multiplying by 40 cases because a lot of things he only has to make a listing once and use sell similar or do quantity listings and list items in seconds. He would not buy 40 cases if he was not uber efficient at listings + getting them lower than most people have access to so I'll bump him another $100 per case just for buy in price.

I would estimate it took me 16 hours to rip, list and ship. I know I could be faster and I know he and I have different listing techniques as well as selling techniques. If it took me 16 - I'll give him 8 hours with listing going down at a rate of 1% per case.

40 Cases estimated time to rip and list every single card = 256 hours

40 Cases Profit - $20,000 (ABSOLUTE MINIMUM in my opinion - if I was on price is right I would guess $45,000)

@ $20,000 he makes $78 an hour
@ $45,000 he makes $175 an hour

Yeah, those are numbers are probably higher than 90% of board members.

These numbers seem reasonable.

A few of the reasons why you are limited in how much you can rip:

1. There are diminishing returns even one day after release.
2. You can flood the market with your own stuff early, if you do too many.
3. It can be hard to keep track of the inventory and make sure your prices stay competitive as prices drop daily for the few weeks after release
4. Time

[atk825]

Originally Posted by Stech36

These numbers seem reasonable.

A few of the reasons why you are limited in how much you can rip:

1. There are diminishing returns even one day after release.
2. You can flood the market with your own stuff early, if you do too many.
3. It can be hard to keep track of the inventory and make sure your prices stay competitive as prices drop daily for the few weeks after release
4. Time

I have no doubt there is money to be made pedaling cheap flagship cards and probably a pretty nice penny but holy hell does it just sound like a lot of work.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by atk825

I have no doubt there is money to be made pedaling cheap flagship cards and probably a pretty nice penny but holy hell does it just sound like a lot of work.

It’s a fun way to spend your evenings. Spend three or four nights the first few weeks ripping and shipping. But I generally don’t sell sets anymore. Just case lots of base. That greatly reduced how much time I spend. It also decreases my ROI.

But there’s enough money to be made in the inserts and parallels.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by Astros19

It could be that no one likes you enough to take the time.
Between you and Superjerk, I wouldn't give either one of you the time of day.
Perhaps try not being a jerk and maybe someone will give you the time of day.

Edit to add....I see I'm not the only one who feels this way.

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Careful standing so high on that soap box.

[rwperu34]

I'm late the the rip and flip $/hr argument, but here are my thoughts;

Originally Posted by premium1981

I said 99%. I was referring to these boards, not necessarily the hourly rate of the country. Maybe I should have clarified that, but I didn't think anyone would be naive enough to think it was referring to the CEOs and the Elon Musk's of the world. But here we are. You never disappoint.

The board is probably a fairly solid representation of the country as a whole. If anything I'd expect the typical poster to be slightly higher earning, although not enough to make a difference to the discussion.

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

Premium:
I mean couldn't you just say how long 1 case takes to open, sort, and list. Then just multiply by number of cases to get the hours worked.

Khal:
Sales you can then just use eBay sold prices (average several players/cards).

Then use pack odds for SP, color, auto/relic, etc. and estimate # of sets made in a case since no case is the same as in value.


BOOM Done

That's not how it works. There are efficiencies of scale and diminishing returns to consider.

From my experience busting Flagship, one lone case back in 2018, I can tell you I made a roughly 30% ROI (~$200 on a $650 purchase). I was young and dumb at that point so certainly didn't maximize my return like I would today (eg I just sold a $20 Bellinger from that rip that was $80 release week). I also paid full retail (ie I bought from Blowout) when I know others were getting prices a solid 20-30% less.

I don't think it's too far fetched to expect a 50% ROI from Flagship. I also don't think it's too far fetched to be able to keep that ROI over hundreds of cases (I mean brentandbecca did this for years...and was likely crushing that ROI). Then the only question becomes that of time.

In conclusion, I'd say the 99% number is not going to fly, but would opening Flagship be a better hourly than 95%? It's within the realm of possibility. 90%? Maybe. Above average? Absolutely, without question.

[StateEx]

Originally Posted by Technochocolate

Fair where fair is due - looks like Topps is cutting down on time in between debuts/transactions, and updates on cardboard. Noticed this with updated teams on Big League, now RCs making it in timely fashion.

Agree. First good post-Fanatics development, in my book.

[Jolten Joe]

Think on this one I'll just pick up a complete set on ebay for around $20 once they settle and just buy the SP Rc's individually for about the price a case would cost with no guarantee of hitting even 1 SP Rc much less all of them.

[Wrightfan85]

Love the picture of Lindor on his base. Got to pick up more storage boxes for the PC in the near future.

[DonnieBaseball2]

Just wanted to echo others and say I love the Volpe base card. Looking forward to collecting these this summer!

[jduds]

Looks like one of the better Series 2 releases in a while. I do worry that Update will be a bit of a dud now though. Regardless, as long as they keep the Home Field Advantages coming I'm happy. I'll pick up a Jumbo or two and then just grab some singles.

[Easycards]

Anyone seen a checklist yet?

[JAM061200]

Anyone break down the odds on Series 2? Looks like Jumbos will be a winner again??

https://www.topps.com/media/pdf/odds...eries2Odds.pdf

[zworykin]

Very quick reactions -

Jumbo still a winner in the way that it always was, but they undid the massive shift of parallels into Jumbo and out of Retail (and to a lesser extent Hobby) that we saw in S1. It's no longer the far-and-away best choice.

Golden Mirror SSPs look like a print run of ~75. S1 they were more like ~150. Interesting.

Wonder what a "Topps Now Redemption" will be. Rare, but not super rare - so it definitely won't be the same thing they did a few years back where each day of the season had a 1/1 "golden ticket" redemption card.

Social Media Follow-back cards have been added. Guess they really liked the reaction to those in Big League.

Looks like they're taking some of the internet whining into account re: big hits in retail, as several of the cards that appear in every (or nearly every) format now only have Platinum 1/1 odds in Hobby/Jumbo (1988 autos/all-star autos, Major League Materials, 1988 relics/all-star relics).

[Jolten Joe]

Mehhh Series 2 does nothing for me. All the big Rc's have regular base cards that will be printed to the moon compared to Series 2 from previous years and the Golden Mirror Cards are just a gimmick that hopefully go away after this year. With no base SP Rc's other than the Golden Mirror SSP Series 2 really doesn't offer much. I'll just pick up a complete set when they come out and call it a day.

[MotorboatJones]

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

Mehhh Series 2 does nothing for me. All the big Rc's have regular base cards that will be printed to the moon compared to Series 2 from previous years and the Golden Mirror Cards are just a gimmick that hopefully go away after this year. With no base SP Rc's other than the Golden Mirror SSP Series 2 really doesn't offer much. I'll just pick up a complete set when they come out and call it a day.

Totally agree. I’ll probably skip the set even.

[ThoseBackPages]

i would like to add a First Flagship Gold Volpe to my collection

[Philthy]

I’m glad they added a couple retail-only parallels so retail is not such a terrible rip as series 1.

That said, it looks like the print run was only slightly decreased from S1. I plan on opening 1-2 jumbos for fun and calling it a day.

[notoriousrmb]

Remember NEVER pre-order from the Topps website, this stuff will be printed nonstop and prices will be better after release.

Pre-ordering direct just gives Topps your money to hold longer while they ship slowly and reduce sales from online competition. If we want to go back to a fair and open market, do not buy direct from Topps.

[jduds]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Remember NEVER pre-order from the Topps website, this stuff will be printed nonstop and prices will be better after release.

Pre-ordering direct just gives Topps your money to hold longer while they ship slowly and reduce sales from online competition. If we want to go back to a fair and open market, do not buy direct from Topps.

I don't think I saw Jumbo cheaper ever. It was $150 at a lot of places (including Topps) but I don't think it was substantially lower elsewhere after release. I like using Topps for the points for Topps Now cards so will likely preorder one or two jumbos. I'm also not sure what not buying from Topps would actually accomplish anyways other than getting them mad enough to cut off any dealer that undercuts them.

[JAM061200]

Originally Posted by jduds

I don't think I saw Jumbo cheaper ever. It was $150 at a lot of places (including Topps) but I don't think it was substantially lower elsewhere after release. I like using Topps for the points for Topps Now cards so will likely preorder one or two jumbos. I'm also not sure what not buying from Topps would actually accomplish anyways other than getting them mad enough to cut off any dealer that undercuts them.

I agree. I think hobby lowered a bit in price from preorder levels but Jumbos skyrocketed after preorder. I guess depends on what box you want.

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by jduds

I don't think I saw Jumbo cheaper ever. It was $150 at a lot of places (including Topps) but I don't think it was substantially lower elsewhere after release. I like using Topps for the points for Topps Now cards so will likely preorder one or two jumbos. I'm also not sure what not buying from Topps would actually accomplish anyways other than getting them mad enough to cut off any dealer that undercuts them.

Series 1 and Series 2 are different animals.

If you havent been following Topps/Fanatics new distribution methods (or lack thereof) then this may not make sense to you. But in short, Topps is holding more product back to sell direct themselves at full market price. They have drastically reduced, or in some cases even cut out, many shops and online sellers.

If we want to keep the LCS around, its not in the hobby's best interest to keep buying direct from Topps. Obviously as a business, they want less competition so they can sell boxes themselves at full markup to keep every penny.

Now if you don't mind the hobby having just a single online option to buy from years from now, then go ahead and support that model. Topps can charge whatever they want and sell it all direct. But, if you like to have shops and online options that can choose to sell and dump product at lower prices, its best not to support this new method of sales from the Fanatics big brains.

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by ClevelandIC

Fair enough, I have no idea what you expect.

Let's say someone had an average case and listed every single card in a timely matter - I would guess they made $100-$400 per case (I would guess I made a little more than this, I have nothing to back it up)

Premium opened 40 cases and while we say $100-$400 on average case I would guess even the worst case possible he still makes money. Over 40 cases he probably has singles that sold for over $300+ maybe even $500+

His hours are not equal to someone doing one case vs just multiplying by 40 cases because a lot of things he only has to make a listing once and use sell similar or do quantity listings and list items in seconds. He would not buy 40 cases if he was not uber efficient at listings + getting them lower than most people have access to so I'll bump him another $100 per case just for buy in price.

I would estimate it took me 16 hours to rip, list and ship. I know I could be faster and I know he and I have different listing techniques as well as selling techniques. If it took me 16 - I'll give him 8 hours with listing going down at a rate of 1% per case.

40 Cases estimated time to rip and list every single card = 256 hours

40 Cases Profit - $20,000 (ABSOLUTE MINIMUM in my opinion - if I was on price is right I would guess $45,000)

@ $20,000 he makes $78 an hour
@ $45,000 he makes $175 an hour

Yeah, those are numbers are probably higher than 90% of board members.

So first off, basically 10 2/3 days utilized opening and listing every card you can. That is STRAIGHT, if you never stopped. Obviously we need to eat/sleep/rest/and work our actual jobs.

So IMO the best case in your scenario for 1 person to open 40 cases and sell it all, would be a month.

All your free time divulged to flagship base.

And then you are basically stating at minimum, someone opening 40 cases is making $20,000 net. Possibly even $40k. Let Khal says, that is unfathomable. There are probably more cases you could lose/break even on than make a grand+ on.

But the primary question Khal asked that is never answered, is how long it took to open his cases and sell the cards.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by Zauron

So first off, basically 10 2/3 days utilized opening and listing every card you can. That is STRAIGHT, if you never stopped. Obviously we need to eat/sleep/rest/and work our actual jobs.

So IMO the best case in your scenario for 1 person to open 40 cases and sell it all, would be a month.

All your free time divulged to flagship base.

And then you are basically stating at minimum, someone opening 40 cases is making $20,000 net. Possibly even $40k. Let Khal says, that is unfathomable. There are probably more cases you could lose/break even on than make a grand+ on.

But the primary question Khal asked that is never answered, is how long it took to open his cases and sell the cards.

You’re not understanding, you can’t lose money opening a case at release, assuming you get everything listed quick.

But for me, I would say in two evenings i can get 2-3 cases listed with my wife’s help. And then shipping takes up a whole lot more time

I’ve never done more than 3 cases at a time, because I feel like at that point it’s not worth my time

[RainCityShecks]

Originally Posted by JAM061200

I agree. I think hobby lowered a bit in price from preorder levels but Jumbos skyrocketed after preorder. I guess depends on what box you want.

Agree as well. Every time a fairly popular product is released and I’ve waited I’ve lost (bowman 23 Jumbo, Bowman 23 Sapphire, Cosmic, Gilded, and the list goes on)


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