“Wall Street is piling into sports cards as prices soar”

[SupermanBrandon]

Wait until you see what happens when Prizm drops and Baseball is in Spring Training, headed into the season. We haven't seen anything yet!

[Orangejello727]

I know why I haven't become a millionaire like most of you in the spots cards arena...

My pull out game is too strong!!!

[Cavaliercards]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Doesn't this kind of line up with people cashing out?

If the people who fill the shoes don't stay in it long term like the predecessors, then what?

We've seen 2 public Jordan PMG greens in less than 2 years. That card was essentially a myth until recently.

At some of the prices I have picked up a HOFer it is not cashing out, it is them hoping they do and falling short.

Lot of people are cashing out players they dont collect but had and are keeping their PC or are buying new guys.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Cavaliercards

At some of the prices I have picked up a HOFer it is not cashing out, it is them hoping they do and falling short.

Lot of people are cashing out players they dont collect but had and are keeping their PC or are buying new guys.

Good point. I know some of these guys selling off "lesser" PCs and going into "better" items.

Ebbs and flows I guess.

[Willikn]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Doesn't this kind of line up with people cashing out?

If the people who fill the shoes don't stay in it long term like the predecessors, then what?

We've seen 2 public Jordan PMG greens in less than 2 years. That card was essentially a myth until recently.

I don't see it that way, but I don't care so maybe that plays a role in my blindness. The cards I want aren't generally wanted by the masses. The way I see it, they are parting with the rare and buying paper Topps LeBron Rcs. I am doing the opposite. Neither of us are "leaving". We are transitioning within.

Instead of stressing about what is real and what is imagined, I've decided to just play the game. I'm having fun. I'm pocketing some dollars. If it all resets at zero (which I don't foresee) I won't care.

[packerfan4200]

Originally Posted by alexlazarevich

Time to buy me some bass! With the millions I made in the Army. God Bless.

God bless you and god bless America

[TheGZA]

Originally Posted by mwheeler27

LOL, imagine having piles of cardboard worth more than your house! Incredible!

[FT35]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Think cards first, then players.

If you’re thinking players first, then cards, you’ve capped yourself.

Which cards/sets are next in the cycle?

I disagree here. I originally thought the same but I think that’s overthinking things too much. It’s always about the player. Even if in some cases a set blows up, it’s the right players in that set that carry the set. I’d rather have 100 Luka Chronicles Playoff rookies than 1 high end card of Dylan Windler from a great set. 100 Zion Hoops Tribute cards beat 1 JJ Reddick exquisite base. Cards for the masses win with uneducated masses. And the educated portion will still prefer great players.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by FT35

I disagree here. I originally thought the same but I think that’s overthinking things too much. It’s always about the player. Even if in some cases a set blows up, it’s the right players in that set that carry the set. I’d rather have 100 Luka Chronicles Playoff rookies than 1 high end card of Dylan Windler from a great set. 100 Zion Hoops Tribute cards beat 1 JJ Reddick exquisite base. Cards for the masses win with uneducated masses. And the educated portion will still prefer great players.

I disagree with this

Chalk me up in the Reddick camp

[packerfan4200]

https://youtu.be/di60NYGu03Y




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Doesn't this kind of line up with people cashing out?

If the people who fill the shoes don't stay in it long term like the predecessors, then what?

We've seen 2 public Jordan PMG greens in less than 2 years. That card was essentially a myth until recently.

On the flip side, it also indicates that some people (or groups) are willing to pay big $ to own and/or invest in such cards too.

Sure, some people might be liquidating their entire collection and getting out of the hobby entirely because they're disgusted about where the hobby is currently at. But there's also some who are taking profit now and waiting (or hoping) for the bubble to pop so they can re-buy their collection for a fraction of what they sold them for. Collectors who are leaving the hobby aren't properly utilizing their expertise to take advantage of so many opportunities available to them (e.g., what tjforce was getting at).

Honestly, the hobby was getting competitive even before Gary Vee and company started talking about the potential growth. I remember how hard it was to find 2017-18 Prizm retail wax at local retail stores. But for fun, let's just say that all the newbies who joined during the pandemic do eventually leave the hobby and we're back to pre-pandemic times but with a reduced member base (because some collectors don't return to the hobby either). Couldn't Panini just reduce the print-run of future products so supply doesn't (or barely meets) demand, thus keeping wax (and single) prices high? Sure, they might not be able to net as much profit as before but I'm sure they'll think of creative ways to generate some profit (e.g., new products, sell annual subscriptions to even have a shot at FOTL products, etc).

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by FT35

I disagree here. I originally thought the same but I think that’s overthinking things too much. It’s always about the player. Even if in some cases a set blows up, it’s the right players in that set that carry the set. I’d rather have 100 Luka Chronicles Playoff rookies than 1 high end card of Dylan Windler from a great set. 100 Zion Hoops Tribute cards beat 1 JJ Reddick exquisite base. Cards for the masses win with uneducated masses. And the educated portion will still prefer great players.

I definitely don't think it's a hard box that everything fits into, but it's remained the one constant throughout any peak and valley.

I've pointed out before that the Luka Net Marvels card outperformed EVERY LUKA ROOKIE in 2020 in a straight % gained basis. Gained more than any Prizm, more than the NT, more than anything.

As it sits currently over the past 3 months:

Luka Prizm PSA 10 down 16%
Luka Net Marvels PSA 10 down 4%

I'm sure if you polled the majority of the hobby in the past year as to which would be the better buy, 99% would have said the Prizm rookie and they would have been wrong.

The player matters for sure, but the set matters more. I can show you stacks upon stacks of Jordan cards that don't matter and Brandon Knight Counterparts that would outsell them.

Steph Curry cards are BOOMING. Would you be able to guess which one has appreciated more than all others in the past year without looking?

Kevin Durant has a card in the same set, but his version would have been the 5th best buy from his catalogue over the past year.

I'd say maybe 1% of the hobby could guess the card/set without checking prices. This is the type of stuff that leads to massive opportunities within the hobby.

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Good point. I know some of these guys selling off "lesser" PCs and going into "better" items.

Ebbs and flows I guess.

<————

Having a handful of side PCs wasn’t as daunting a few years ago when I started chasing certain inserts or rare cards of certain players when something came up. Now everything is so damn expensive that doing this isn’t feasible, for me at least.

[asujbl]

Just be smart

Luka is still a good investment
LeBron, Kobe, Duncan, 86 Fleer etc... are still a good investment

Spending $250 on a Coby White or Tyler Herro Prizm is not

Just think

[FT35]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I definitely don't think it's a hard box that everything fits into, but it's remained the one constant throughout any peak and valley.

I've pointed out before that the Luka Net Marvels card outperformed EVERY LUKA ROOKIE in 2020 in a straight % gained basis. Gained more than any Prizm, more than the NT, more than anything.

As it sits currently over the past 3 months:

Luka Prizm PSA 10 down 16%
Luka Net Marvels PSA 10 down 4%

I'm sure if you polled the majority of the hobby in the past year as to which would be the better buy, 99% would have said the Prizm rookie and they would have been wrong.

The player matters for sure, but the set matters more. I can show you stacks upon stacks of Jordan cards that don't matter and Brandon Knight Counterparts that would outsell them.

Steph Curry cards are BOOMING. Would you be able to guess which one has appreciated more than all others in the past year without looking?

Kevin Durant has a card in the same set, but his version would have been the 5th best buy from his catalogue over the past year.

I'd say maybe 1% of the hobby could guess the card without checking prices.

I can definitely get on board with this. I was thinking you were saying a no-name from a great set is a better strategy than top players from a common set. You’re still saying player matters most—but think about that player in more limited sets?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by FT35

I can definitely get on board with this. I was thinking you were saying a no-name from a great set is a better strategy than top players from a common set. You’re still saying player matters most—but think about that player in more limited sets?

Right.

Instead of asking which player I should buy, ask which set you should look at AND THEN focus on the player from that set.

Of course a no name player from a nothing set isn't the best buy, but even your Reddick Exquisite example probably would work out long-term (assuming he was in 2003 Exquisite, which sadly he isn't ).

[yaoming]

ok, so for your "big" cards in your PC - hold ? at what price point would you sell ? (serious question)

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by yaoming

ok, so for your "big" cards in your PC - hold ? at what price point would you sell ? (serious question)

Asking myself that right now

A - FOMO
B - What am I going to buy instead?

It’s hurting my brain

[Above the Rim]

If you are holding cards, how can you possibly be "disgusted" with the hobby right now? With the prices way up, isn't that part of the whole goal all this?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by yaoming

ok, so for your "big" cards in your PC - hold ? at what price point would you sell ? (serious question)

I'd hold if I don't think I can get the card down the road, regardless of the price in the future.

If I think the card will be available down the road, I take profit and move into other cards that I may not have a shot at.

The guy who sold the Lebron Chrome at $15K may be kicking himself because it's jumped in price, but he also will have an infinite amount of opportunities to purchase at a later date even if it costs him more down the road.

The guy who sold the Lebron Exquisite RPA for $40K may be kicking himself because it's jumped in price, but he's also probably hating himself because even with a lottery win he may only have a handful of opportunities in his life to purchase it again.

[Cavaliercards]

Originally Posted by yaoming

ok, so for your "big" cards in your PC - hold ? at what price point would you sell ? (serious question)

Depends on the cards.

I have ones that I will not move period, but then others that if yes I paid $100 and it reached $10,000 and is a readily available card I will consider it.

[Sikkcaden]

This isn't necessarily new news, this was just put on a different platform. I know that Pablo Torre has an ESPN Daily episode on this a month or so back that mentioned wall street starting to pile in.

Originally Posted by asujbl

Just be smart

Luka is still a good investment
LeBron, Kobe, Duncan, 86 Fleer etc... are still a good investment

Spending $250 on a Coby White or Tyler Herro Prizm is not

Just think

^^This is the correct advice. This is the #1 thing I have been most thankful for. Knowing what to buy but also knowing what NOT to buy. Don't chase. Have conviction, be comfortable not following the crowd.

If you are looking for quick flips/short term windfalls, the market has become much more sophisticated. Before AD got officially traded to the Lakers, you were able to scoop up cards of his knowing full well the trade was eventually going to happen. When the trade happened, prices spiked. That doesn't happen anymore, people are thinking 2-3 steps ahead.

I have been able to find some value here and there, but it is becoming much more difficult. My most recent example of value is actually in the world of Football. I was able to get a lot of OBJ for extremely cheap (my most expensive purchase was a Rookie Topps Chrome Red Auto /5 BGS 9.5/10 for under $400). Knowing full well that Football isn't the same market, knowing WR's historically don't sell well my reasoning behind the purchase was this:

-OBJ will either get traded (causing a pop) or come back and be in year 2 of a high powered offense
-OBJ is one of the most iconic players of his generation, so even if he never returns to form there will be a nostalgic push for him AT SOME POINT.
-I paid less than $400 for a great card from an iconic set. If I have to eat that I am more than happy to, because I genuinely like the card.

[sc29650]

This press story is be design and orchestrated by wall street. They have already been in the game, driving these prices to the moon. Now they need new money to come in so they can liquidate. Oldest trick in the book.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I'd hold if I don't think I can get the card down the road, regardless of the price in the future.

If I think the card will be available down the road, I take profit and move into other cards that I may not have a shot at.

The guy who sold the Lebron Chrome at $15K may be kicking himself because it's jumped in price, but he also will have an infinite amount of opportunities to purchase at a later date even if it costs him more down the road.

The guy who sold the Lebron Exquisite RPA for $40K may be kicking himself because it's jumped in price, but he's also probably hating himself because even with a lottery win he may only have a handful of opportunities in his life to purchase it again.

Available down the road is a key to all this

Let’s use my situation (and this is honest)

I have my eye on a new car. It costs $85,000. I don’t need to sell any cards to get it... but...

Kobe Chrome and LeBron Chrome, as of today, pay for it

Do I sell those 2 and buy the new car?

Do I hold those 2, even at those insane prices, because I can buy it regardless?

Do I sell those 2 knowing I might not buy them again?

Do I sell those 2 knowing that in 2023 maybe I could buy back the pair for $50,000? What if they are $100,000? Would I buy them again as I don’t want to stop collecting?

It’s tough with this kind of money

I honestly can’t decide... and it’s why my car is still a 2012

[Sikkcaden]

Originally Posted by yaoming

ok, so for your "big" cards in your PC - hold ? at what price point would you sell ? (serious question)

This is something I think about. I started putting together a collection for my son strictly for the purpose to give it to him in 20+ years. However in roughly 2 years, less than $20k invested is now pushing $200k in value.

If that number continues to go up without much being added to it, I have to think about paying for his college and first house rather than giving him little pictures of grown men.