NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by mjwoop

I'm fairly confident that I can identify at least one person in this thread who has a stake in the "pack selling" side of this endeavor. Your approach is more transparent than you realize.

41,000 packs sold in 24 hours @ $9 each....not too shabby. This does remind me of Topps Project 2020. Maybe its a bubble and it'll similarly implode. Maybe not.

[suknives]

You’re telling me for the low price of $9, I can potentially “open” a numbered /4000 Alec Burks layup clip?

[suknives]

I also love that it shows who exactly paid $34 for a Joel Embiid hook shot video clip lmaooooooo

(seriously have to ask ourselves with this ridiculousness, is the top in on the sports collectibles market?

[Brobocop]

Do I think these are kind of dumb? Yes. Do I see the value of them personally? No. BUT, that doesn't mean there isn't a market for this. I made a decent amount of money on the Topps Walking Dead packs. A lot of those packs I got for free by completing challenges like watching commercials and filling out surveys. I'd do those while going potty or during TV Commercial breaks. I'd guess I made about $600 selling singles on ebay back then.

I think we are focusing on the what instead of the why. People love to collect things, doesn't matter if it's physical or digital. It's in our blood. People also love easy and simple. This is that. It's incredibly easy to buy, sell, open, and store.

Ten years ago, I bought every CD, DVD, and video game physically. Now it's all digital. Heck, I don't even own the stuff, I just pay a subscription service now. I would consider buying a few of these but the packs available all seem to only have common cards in them. Still, it's something I might keep an eye on.

[larryhughes]

Do you own the copyright of the video?　if not these are completely useless

[jcardstore]

Ok, so it seems there is 1 person in this thread with an agenda to hype the hell out of these.

While I find absolutely no value in these I figured what the hell, let's see if it's as easy to flip these as this dude is making it seem.

Let me tell you, it's not.

I opened 3 packs for like $30. Priced every card at whatever the lowest one was listed for and I sold 1 card for $1 (well .95 after their fee ).

Originally Posted by grade

What actually worked best for me , it might be luck, was buying packs yesterday and flipping the under $3 cards . when i flipped $12 worth i would buy another packs. rinse and repeat. Did very good.

Based on my 3 packs it takes at least that many to get $12 "worth" of these cards so I'm not sure how you did "very good".

If the 8 other moments I have sell I may buy another pack but I sure won't be spending any more of my money on this. I'll just stick to real cards.

[Zacy87]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Ok, so it seems there is atleast 2 people in this thread with an agenda to hype the hell out of these.

While I find absolutely no value in these I figured what the hell, let's see if it's as easy to flip these as this dude is making it seem.

Let me tell you, it's not.

I opened 3 packs for like $30. Priced every card at whatever the lowest one was listed for and I sold 1 card for $1 (well .95 after their fee ).



Based on my 3 packs it takes at least that many to get $12 "worth" of these cards so I'm not sure how you did "very good".

If the 8 other moments I have sell I may buy another pack but I sure won't be spending any more of my money on this. I'll just stick to real cards.

Corrected.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Zacy87

Corrected.

True but one of them is here with an agenda and the other one is probably just being sucked into the hype.

[NoleinJax]

Hope everyone buying this garbage makes a mint. Just don't be the one holding the potato when the music stops.

[jcardstore]

So here's my full take on this after thinking about it for a bit.

The demand is being propped up by a very successful marketing campaign targeted at a very specific demographic.

TopShot gets people like grade to go around to forums, fb, twitter, (insert other social media here), to tell people how great it is and how much money you can make. The key piece here is the making money part. Their target demographic is the hustler harders of the world, the dudes who latch onto any scheme they can to make a few extra bucks. Remember grade kept using crypto as an example and this was for a very specific reason. Crypto is a super hypey buzz word right now and it's associated with making huge returns for basically doing nothing. When in reality to make money in crypto trading actually takes a massive amount of research and work and most people will lose.

What I see happening is the platform becomes crazy saturated with guys who are in it for nothing more than the money and eventually, as people slowly begin to realize that it's not as easy as the promoters make it seem, the user base will begin to dwindle and eventually fade.

Can you make money trading these? Possibly. Is it worth the time and effort? Probably not.

Maybe the platform is gonna be wildly successful and I'm going to look like an idiot in the future too.

[Stackfan]

I'll start by saying; 100% this isn't for everyone.

I gave it a try a few days ago; and it's fun. You don't need to spend 20K or even 100$ buying clips. There are several that can be had for 1$ EA. Just recently picked up a PJ Washington for 1$ and sold it like 2 days later for 4$. So think that is a decent low cost strategy to just grow the collection. I would recommend starting with either 1 pack, or buying a couple 1-2$ highlights to try it.

Certainly pro's and con's ...

Pro's
- It's fun / interactive
- It's easy to purchase... not hunting down cards at target
- Some of the highlights are pretty awesome; with unique camera angles
- Fairly low entry cost (although i think they should offer 1 pack for free to new users)
- I'm 100% not a social media guy; but you can put together your favorite highlights for a sizzle reel;
- I received 5$ credit ; so that helped me stay engaged.
- WAY cheaper than hobby boxes & more limited


Con's
- Slightly expensive packs (about 3$ per highlight card)
- Needs more Freebie's
- Rarer card/highlights are hard to get; AND expensive.
- Some highlights aren't really highlights imo; like an above average pass or steal.
- Site is still in beta... could use some more features like friends and trading.


I'm stackfan422 on there; if anyone wants to trade.

[hauntedcomputer]

Originally Posted by Tallboy

4. The same is true for actual cards to a degree of course, but the basis for trading card value is that you're getting a genuine, fundamentally limited artifact from some point in history. Values can go down, but so long as society holds, there's going to be value in historical ephemera.

5. I'm trying to get my head around the actual "moment" that you're getting and I'm struggling.

Fundamentally, the issue for me is similar to others: I don't see any true scarcity to the product. If someone wants to see a clip of a player 50 years from now, they're going to be able to see it elsewhere on the internet legally for free. And of course, for the vast majority of these players, people are going to care far less about them in 50 years than they do now.

Contradicting yourself. What's to prevent you from printing out a picture of a card and gluing it to cardboard? If anything, a digital image of a specific moment in history seems more like a "genuine, fundamentally limited artifact from some point in history" than a card, especially when the same photoshopped image is inerted into 25 different parallels and often isn't even from an actual game.

I suspect in ten years, half of us in this thread will look like idiots. I'm on the side that says this will be a significant slice of the hobby, even though I'm not going to participate.

[Brobocop]

I created an account and set up notifications so I'll be interested to see how this goes.

[alias21]

This might have been brought up already but is top shop endorsed by the nba?

Meaning are they legally allowed to profit of these clips, use team logos on their “cards”....etc? If not I’d imagine they’d get shut down pretty quick and face legal action.

[Stackfan]

Originally Posted by alias21

This might have been brought up already but is top shop endorsed by the nba?

Meaning are they legally allowed to profit of these clips, use team logos on their “cards”....etc? If not I’d imagine they’d get shut down pretty quick and face legal action.

I'm not an expert with Top Shot; but yes they are associated with the NBA.

I think the common knock on this; is well.... i'll just watch the YT clip. Well; most of the YT clips are probably illegal. Now i don't think the NBA cares that much about going after people with NBA highlights; but theoretically i believe they could if they wanted. Especially if it's the same highlights they are selling.

[Mahomie]

Originally Posted by hauntedcomputer

What's to prevent you from printing out a picture of a card and gluing it to cardboard?

This is an important perspective to consider. I don't have any agenda, and as mentioned, I'm not investing in this.

However, people keep saying, "Yeah, but they're just Youtube clips. I can view those anytime for free. You don't own any copyrights."

There is a large population of people who think the same about the card hobby: "They're just printed pictures on pieces of cardboard. I can view those online anytime. Heck, I could even make/design my own cards for free with a nice printer, glue, and cardboard. You don't own any photo copyrights."

For the record, I've have many non-hobbyist friends give me a similar spiel

[volblorx8634]

Originally Posted by Mahomie

This is an important perspective to consider. I don't have any agenda, and as mentioned, I'm not investing in this.

However, people keep saying, "Yeah, but they're just Youtube clips. I can view those anytime for free. You don't own any copyrights."

There is a large population of people who think the same about the card hobby: "They're just printed pictures on pieces of cardboard. I can view those online anytime. Heck, I could even make/design my own cards for free with a nice printer, glue, and cardboard. You don't own any photo copyrights."

For the record, I've have many non-hobbyist friends give me a similar spiel

Exactly. We don't share that perspective because we enjoy the hobby for one reason or another. You and I may not enjoy these clips, but all it takes is for enough people to enjoy it and stick with it that it would take off. And you could argue this appeals way more to the younger generation:

Digital
More exciting to watch highlights than stare at a piece of cardboard
Cheaper and more accessible financially for a kid than wax and even most "desirable" cards (note the air quotes)

[grade]

Get one thing straight. I THINIK THIS STUFF WAS STUPID A FEW MONTHS AGO.

I began to look more deeply into this a few days ago. Still do not understand why it is so popular . But what it think is stupid does not mean it is stupid too other people. People think sportscards are stupid, pokemon cards and tesla ,stupid. manga is stupid, gucci bags are stupid. But one thing they all have in common is they all have people that love it.

Denial is not going to stop me from a small risk and large return.

Again, i think bitcoin, crypto and nbatopshot is ridiculous. But that does not stop me from trying to understand the huge future market for "stupid" things.


People are chasing this card , probably worth $20,000 - $100,000 at this time.

Lamelo first digital card.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by grade

Get one thing straight. I THINIK THIS STUFF WAS STUPID A FEW MONTHS AGO.

I began to look more deeply into this a few days ago.

Nobody believes you

[i4gotmyid]

Originally Posted by Stackfan

I'm not an expert with Top Shot; but yes they are associated with the NBA.

I think the common knock on this; is well.... i'll just watch the YT clip. Well; most of the YT clips are probably illegal. Now i don't think the NBA cares that much about going after people with NBA highlights; but theoretically i believe they could if they wanted. Especially if it's the same highlights they are selling.

Do we own the clip or does the nba? Can we force youtube to take down the clip over copyright if it's ours? Cause if you now legally own the clip, I can see value in that...but...

[mjwoop]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

So here's my full take on this after thinking about it for a bit.

The demand is being propped up by a very successful marketing campaign targeted at a very specific demographic.

TopShot gets people like grade to go around to forums, fb, twitter, (insert other social media here), to tell people how great it is and how much money you can make. The key piece here is the making money part. Their target demographic is the hustler harders of the world, the dudes who latch onto any scheme they can to make a few extra bucks. Remember grade kept using crypto as an example and this was for a very specific reason. Crypto is a super hypey buzz word right now and it's associated with making huge returns for basically doing nothing. When in reality to make money in crypto trading actually takes a massive amount of research and work and most people will lose.

What I see happening is the platform becomes crazy saturated with guys who are in it for nothing more than the money and eventually, as people slowly begin to realize that it's not as easy as the promoters make it seem, the user base will begin to dwindle and eventually fade.

Can you make money trading these? Possibly. Is it worth the time and effort? Probably not.

Maybe the platform is gonna be wildly successful and I'm going to look like an idiot in the future too.

That's my read on it as well. I'm not convinced that any "sales" that are being referenced are real sales either at this point. It seems like there may be a lot of illusion involved here.

[grade]

Originally Posted by mjwoop

That's my read on it as well. I'm not convinced that any "sales" that are being referenced are real sales either at this point. It seems like there may be a lot of illusion involved here.

interesting. this guys does breaks also.
sold a $21,000 luka
link

https://youtu.be/ryAQbLx7tqA

[MaoAsadaStan]

I've seen the same reaction with people pulling cards, this has a lot of potential.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC7x8Dcn0IQ

[daeve]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

41,000 packs sold in 24 hours @ $9 each....not too shabby. This does remind me of Topps Project 2020. Maybe its a bubble and it'll similarly implode. Maybe not.

It's different, but as I looked into this last night I started to get similar vibes. I enjoyed the little 'bubble' on TP20, but ultimately got bored with it after a couple months, sold a couple things but got stuck holding the bag on a couple others. Overall a wash for me. This may have more potential but I couldn't pull the trigger last night on some of the $9 packs. I would be interested in one of the rarer ones, though I already despise playing that game with bots/cook groups for hot products "available" through online retail, and this seems like the same game to me.

[Tallboy]

Originally Posted by hauntedcomputer

Contradicting yourself. What's to prevent you from printing out a picture of a card and gluing it to cardboard? If anything, a digital image of a specific moment in history seems more like a "genuine, fundamentally limited artifact from some point in history" than a card, especially when the same photoshopped image is inerted into 25 different parallels and often isn't even from an actual game.

I suspect in ten years, half of us in this thread will look like idiots. I'm on the side that says this will be a significant slice of the hobby, even though I'm not going to participate.

Well first: I was talking about the fact that something was actually physically created at a particular point in the past, which is a major part of why older cards often carry much more value than nicer photos with autographs of the same player. (Though I'll note I'm a fan of said autograph photos, so I'm not knocking them.)

When a thing is digital, there is no physical history. It's something that for all tangible purposes is created whenever you open up your browser and destroyed afterward. Yes, there's a digital ID in there, and if that's enough to make people feel it's real good for them, but that ID is not in any way tied to the direct experience of the "moment".

Second: With respect to gluing to cardboard. I mean, that's pretty gross to me, and you bringing it up makes me think you're just thinking about the image rather than the object. I don't think anyone is interested in a picture of an '86 Jordan glued onto cardboard.

Of course there is a market for people who try to do such a good job re-making a card no one can tell the difference. There's a little known term for this called "counterfeiting", and apparently it's against the law. Who knew?

In theory of course you could do all that - master all of the equipment and technology - just for your own viewing pleasure, but I doubt you think that's something that's common. Whereas, there are free tools that will allow you to do this with digital images.

Re: using bad photos that get re-used. Quite true and I don't like that either. This is of course largely a Panini thing that only exists because people buying cards haven't voted with aesthetic judgment, and if enough of us develop an aesthetic conscious, they'll do better. In the mean time, it just means that the beautiful cards are cheaper than they should be relative to the ugly ones.

But I'll say that I actually love that the implicit focus of "Moments" is to try to capture something significant and beautiful. I don't object to the idea of collecting GIFs on principle, I'm just struggling to understand what the basis for long-term value is when when anyone can go make the same GIF, and it will look and feel just as good.

Here's a comparison:

Unlicensed cards are typically quite rare in practice, but they are not treated as such and the reason isn't simply about legality. It's also about the fact that at any time more such cards can be made, and thus the supply is effectively infinite.

I'm struggling with seeing the stuff people are buying here as something that's providing something truly finite.

Re: look like idiots. Well for those making definitive statements about what absolutely cannot develop a market, they may well be wrong. I'm not saying it can't get a market, I'm just saying I question whether the market rationally makes sense.

It's not necessarily a bad idea to invest in something that lacks a fully-rational basis, but the less "real" a thing is, in general, the more risky.

Last: I should really make clear that I'm not really looking to be convinced or to convince others here. I'm just calling it like I see it.