Junk Slab Era?

[newyorker]

I think the actual concept of 'grading' a card is no more.

Initially, grading a card was to numerically and professionally differentiate vintage/older cards when toploaders didn't exist.

Now, grading a card is to solely create artificial scarcity.
Reason for 'artificial' scarcity is because recently produced cards will never fall below a NR MT. Straight form pack to toploader to cardsaver to case.

Therefore difference between a GEM MT 10 and a NR MT is extremely minuscule.

Essentially it's all about trying to sell a same card for a higher price.
Except it's artificial, with the only difference being cased with '10' vs '9'.
It's almost like stadium club series where 1st day issues ARE rare, but the only difference is a tiny stamp. No numbering.
Only a matter of time that people will acknowledge 9 and 10s are same in quality.

Ultimately, it's always supply vs demand but like the OP said, except for the very selected few, ALL other graded cards, especially base cards will be dollar bins regardless of the grade.

[kkart]

The old adage of "buy the card not the grad" applies here.

Personally, I don't send anything in for grading. I'm not a flipper. I'm not a investor. I'm a collector. That said, should I find a really good deal on a slabbed card that I don't have but want, I'll purchase it strictly for protection if it's something I want to display. 95% of my collection goes in binders sans thicker cards which go in One Touch holders & honestly I don't have many of those at all.

I guess maybe I'm odd as I tend to chase sets and players I love. I'm old & remember at card shows long ago the discussion of grading coming to the hobby and how people were afraid it would ruin the hobby. And these days it seems a lot of the fears people back then have come true. Lots of people these days want to make a quick buck and have no love for the hobby but see it as strictly a money making opportunity. Look at how retail is being cleared out all over the country & where people are chasing reps for MJ Holdings. All so they can get that Luis Robert off to PSA immediately.

I'll say this. Grading has it's place among those who collect vintage. That however is a whole other animal altogether. And after coming back to the hobby a year ago, I can say that with all the new stuff, things have really changed a lot and that isn't necessarily for the better either.

My 2 cents. Take it for what it's worth.

[SaveMeTheGum]

There was a big slab rush around 1999/2000 when the 1999 Bowman Chrome set was on fire. I just remember some guy trying to sell 100 Erubial Durazo 9's. With 6+ month turnaround time, people realized you need to have the cards slabbed well before the player blows up. Combine that with PSA being much stricter on new cards and there is going to be a flood of PSA 9's of garbage players/cards out there (I'm assuming anything 8 or less will just be cracked).

[f2tornado]

There has always been a bountiful supply of slabbed prospect cards out there. I would expect the supply of new issues going forward to fall given grading cost increases coupled with lengthy turnaround times. I'd think the large pop reports on 2018-2019 stuff would limit the price spread between raw and graded gem relative to older stuff... but have not bothered to compare. I've seen cards with raw plus grading costs yield a lower ROI than just selling raw in the past and that alone would discourage me from grading most prospect cards. On the other hand, those that took the early risk can make a nice buck being the first to offer gems when the player gets hot.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

There has always been a bountiful supply of slabbed prospect cards out there. I would expect the supply of new issues going forward to fall given grading cost increases coupled with lengthy turnaround times.

The hobby has not seen the likes of this before. It also makes sense that people will submit less with price increases/turnover time, but it is the opposite. Even though people know it will take 6 months to get their cards back and prices increased, submissions are at an all time high and continue to grow. PSA continues to see increases in submissions every week. I think by PSA having such a long turnover and higher prices, it makes people want to submit more. There is no logic right now in society or this "hobby."