Hall of Famers We Are Watching in 2020

[dmanrico]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Mike Trout
3. Albert Pujols
4. Justin Verlander
5. Zack Greinke
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. Max Scherzer
8. Robinson Cano

This would be my list except Cano off and Greinke right on the fringe of being a HOFer

[rman112]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Good point.

I was just looking at his numbers vis-a-vis other 2B.

I'm very curious to see what Ortiz's voting looks like.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by rats60

Sutton was released in August 1988. So, I guess he technically was part of the team, but not part of the team that won the World Series.

They gave him a ring.

[brewtown107]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

This was a lot of my thought process. Even your Murphy, Mattingly, Hernandez, examples are spot on because they probably will make it but it could be 30 years from now.

I admit, I played it a little safe and stayed away from too many young pitchers. (Though I did pick Soroka). Chances are 1/3 of my list won’t make it due to falling off a cliff or getting injured. And there are another 12-15 that will make it that none of us will expect.

I mean, look at 1987. Greg Maddux finished 1987 with a career line of 8-18 with a 5.59 ERA. No one is putting him on their list at that time.

Totally agree and thank you for taking my comment the way it was intended. Not a criticism of your list, but rather a general comment on how unpredictable it all is. 1987 is a year that was kind of picked at random here, I believe, but it contains so many great examples of players who looked like they were on the right trajectory but missed, and others on the opposite course, like Maddux.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by LCM1223

How can guys that have been in the league 5 years or less be on HOF watch

It’s not a HOF watch. I don’t think you read the OP. There will be around 40 (or more) players active in 2020 that will one day be enshrined in Cooperstown. Meaning when we watch baseball this year, there are 40 of these players that we are watching play (along with hundreds more we will be watching) who will inevitibly end up in the Hall. I meant watch in the literal sense. I’m merely putting a list together of the 40 I think it’ll end up being. I’m not putting them on a watch list. I’m not advocating them. I’m not rooting for them. I’m just picking them and asking everyone else to pick theirs.

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

I’d strongly suggest limiting your list to players having at least half of the required HOF service time - 5 years - to keep the list realistic and manageable and to keep it from becoming a vehicle for hype.

It would be great to see the annual additions and subtractions every year, perhaps on New Year’s Day.

I appreciate the suggestion but that’s not what this is. I’m not saying these 40 are likely HOFers (though some of them clearly are). I’m just picking 40 that I am guessing will get there. I do also appreciate that you think I am so influential that my posting a list on a baseball card forum would have so much power to create hype for Cole Hamels. Move over Keith Law, here comes skipscards.

The annual additions/subtractions idea is a good one. But not for this exercise.

Originally Posted by mfw13

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Mike Trout
3. Albert Pujols
4. Justin Verlander
5. Zack Greinke
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. Max Scherzer
8. Robinson Cano

I think the above eight players are the only locks.

And it's pointless to speculate about anybody with fewer than ten seasons in the majors.

I think the guys who are most on the border right now are Posey, Molina, and Bumgarner.

Posey has the MVP and three World Series titles going for him, but his counting stats are very low....he might not even make it to 200 HR and 1000 RBI, and if he does, it'll be with a switch to 1B.

Yadier Molina is in the same boat....two rings, multiple-time all-star, great defender, but mediocre counting stats.

They're the two best catchers of their generation, but both are only around 40-45 WAR.

Bumgarner has his World Series performances going for him, and 119 wins, but only a 120 ERA+ and 32.5 WAR thanks to pitching his whole career in SF. If he can sustain that in Arizona, he's got a chance. If he suddenly becomes a league-average pitcher, then the HOF becomes much more of an iffy prospect for him.

Nice list. I’d comment about your comment on speculating but it’d be pointless.

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Mike Trout
3. Albert Pujols
4. Justin Verlander
5. Zack Greinke
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. Max Scherzer
8. Robinson Cano

The first 7 are all locks that will likely be inducted on the first or second ballot. Assuming Trout plays one game this season. He’s got less than 10 seasons so listing him may be pointless.

But there’s definitely going to be more than 8 players in 2020 who will eventually get in. You picked the easy ones.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by brewtown107

Totally agree and thank you for taking my comment the way it was intended. Not a criticism of your list, but rather a general comment on how unpredictable it all is. 1987 is a year that was kind of picked at random here, I believe, but it contains so many great examples of players who looked like they were on the right trajectory but missed, and others on the opposite course, like Maddux.

Absolutely. I always thought it’s neat to think there are 35-45 players who will make it to the Hall playing at any given time. Then trying to guess who they are knowing the ranges of where each HOFer is in their career. One day we can look back and go, geesh, remember when he was 8-18? Just a fun discussion.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by rman112

I'm very curious to see what Ortiz's voting looks like.

Me too. I would expect slightly higher than Pettitte. But neither are active so they don’t apply here.

[tha101st]

Miggy and jv go in as tigers any shot that max does?

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by tha101st

Miggy and jv go in as tigers any shot that max does?

I don’t think so. He’ll go in as a Nationals player.

[66_Fiat]

I had to swap a few of your names Skip, but I like your list as well. Here's mine.

1. Albert Pujols
2. Mike Trout
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Max Scherzer
6. Justin Verlander
7. Zach Greinke
8. Stephen Strasburg
9. Nolan Arenado
10. Mookie Betts
11. Matt Chapman
12. Paul Goldschmidt
13. Joey Votto
14. Wander Franco
15. Bryce Harper
16. Jacob deGrom
17. Francisco Lindor
18. Edwin Encarnacion
19. Jose Altuve
20. Alex Bregman
21. Gerrit Cole
22. Yadier Molina
23. Keston Hiura
24. Josh Hader
25. Craig Kimbrell
26. Andrelton Simmons
27. Chris Sale
28. Rafael Devers
29. Cody Bellinger
30. Shane Bieber
31. Giancarlo Stanton
32. Gleyber Torres
33. Juan Soto
34. Ronald Acuna Jr
35. Trea Turner
36. Mike Soroka
37. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
38. Walker Buehler
39. Shohei Ohtani
40. Christian Yelich

My biggest shun is probably MadBum. I just don't see him pulling a Scherzer or Verlander to gain traction on his counting stats. I also pulled Judge off due to his late start and injury history during his prime.

Edit: pulled Bryant and added Lindor.

[no10pin]

I don't begin to understand how WAR is calculated, but the numbers on the catchers from a few pages back are insane.

If there is a measure that says that Jonathan Lucroy has been three times as valuable as Salvador Perez over the course of their careers, it seems to be broken.

Also more valuable than Perez:
Martin Maldonado
Travis D'Arnaud
Mike Zunino
Derek Norris

I'm a huge fan, so I'm probably a homer when it comes to his HOF chances too, but he certainly can't lose any more seasons out of his prime. Hopefully he comes back the same player he was before the injury.

[HarryLime]

I will amend my list to add Yadi to my locks. No one really expects much offense out of their catcher, they want a field general that can handle the pitching staff. If you're lucky enough to have a catcher that is widely respected across the league you have the advantage of having a great ambassador for your team talking to every member of the umpire crew all game throughout the course of a series.

Even when there were great offensive performances, I'd bet Yadi goes off the board #2 at the latest in a real MLB fantasy draft by managers/GMs, year-in, year-out.

Arthur

[awz50]

Originally Posted by 66_Fiat

I had to swap a few of your names Skip, but I like your list as well. Here's mine.

1. Albert Pujols
2. Mike Trout
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Max Scherzer
6. Justin Verlander
7. Zach Greinke
8. Stephen Strasburg
9. Nolan Arenado
10. Mookie Betts
11. Matt Chapman
12. Paul Goldschmidt
13. Joey Votto
14. Wander Franco
15. Bryce Harper
16. Jacob deGrom
17. Francisco Lindor
18. Edwin Encarnacion
19. Jose Altuve
20. Alex Bregman
21. Gerrit Cole
22. Yadier Molina
23. Keston Hiura
24. Josh Hader
25. Craig Kimbrell
26. Andrelton Simmons
27. Chris Sale
28. Rafael Devers
29. Cody Bellinger
30. Shane Bieber
31. Giancarlo Stanton
32. Gleyber Torres
33. Juan Soto
34. Ronald Acuna Jr
35. Trea Turner
36. Mike Soroka
37. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
38. Walker Buehler
39. Shohei Ohtani
40. Christian Yelich

My biggest shun is probably MadBum. I just don't see him pulling a Scherzer or Verlander to gain traction on his counting stats. I also pulled Judge off due to his late start and injury history during his prime.

Edit: pulled Bryant and added Lindor.

In all realism, only 50% of that list gets close to HOF caliber

[awz50]

Originally Posted by Southpaw21

Craig Kimbrel?

He needs to get his career back on track after last year.

His first years with the Braves he was outstanding. Since then he has been above average to average

[Archangel1775]

LOCKS: (Pending zero steroid,murder,cheating,domestic violence or statutory rape allegations)

Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Zack Greinke
Robinson Cano (PEDs)
Justin Verlander
Clayton Kershaw
Max Scherzer
Mike Trout

On the edge:
Joey Votto
Yadier Molina
Buster Posey

Injuries took their toll:
Felix Hernandez
Giancarlo Stanton
Dustin Pedroia
Tim Lincecum

No, because he's an idiot:
MadBum (Yes, I'm a Giants fan)

Right path:
Mookie Betts
Nolan Arenado
Christian Yelich
Jose Altuve (Eh....?)
Bryce Harper
Kris Bryant
Manny Machado
Francisco Lindor
Cody Bellinger


Would need a strong finish:
Freddie Freeman
Jacob DeGrom
Andrelton Simmons

Hall of Very Good or finish like Barry Bonds/Roger Clemens:
Stephen Strasburg(31 yrs)
Paul Goldschmidt (32 yrs)
Evan Longoria (34 yrs)
Josh Donaldson (34yrs)

Too early to tell with everyone else

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

LOCKS: (Pending zero steroid,murder,cheating,domestic violence or statutory rape allegations)

Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Zack Greinke
Robinson Cano (PEDs)
Justin Verlander
Clayton Kershaw
Max Scherzer
Mike Trout

On the edge:
Joey Votto
Yadier Molina
Buster Posey

Injuries took their toll:
Felix Hernandez
Giancarlo Stanton
Dustin Pedroia

Right path:
Mookie Betts
Nolan Arenado
Christian Yelich
Jose Altuve (Eh....?)
Bryce Harper
Kris Bryant
Manny Machado
Francisco Lindor
Cody Bellinger


Would need a strong finish:
Freddie Freeman
Jacob DeGrom
Andrelton Simmons

Hall of Very Good or finish like Barry Bonds/Roger Clemens:
Stephen Strasburg(31 yrs)
Paul Goldschmidt (32 yrs)
Evan Longoria (34 yrs)
Josh Donaldson (34yrs)

Too early to tell with everyone else

This is remarkably close to how I feel. The only tweaks I'd make is move Yadi in, put Votto and Posey in the strong finish category, and move Strasburg up somewhere. These next few years winning with Washington will be crucial for Strasburg but he already has his Bumgarner postseason, which I think will carry a lot of weight when the time comes.

Arthur

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by 66_Fiat

I had to swap a few of your names Skip, but I like your list as well. Here's mine.

1. Albert Pujols
2. Mike Trout
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Max Scherzer
6. Justin Verlander
7. Zach Greinke
8. Stephen Strasburg
9. Nolan Arenado
10. Mookie Betts
11. Matt Chapman
12. Paul Goldschmidt
13. Joey Votto
14. Wander Franco
15. Bryce Harper
16. Jacob deGrom
17. Francisco Lindor
18. Edwin Encarnacion
19. Jose Altuve
20. Alex Bregman
21. Gerrit Cole
22. Yadier Molina
23. Keston Hiura
24. Josh Hader
25. Craig Kimbrell
26. Andrelton Simmons
27. Chris Sale
28. Rafael Devers
29. Cody Bellinger
30. Shane Bieber
31. Giancarlo Stanton
32. Gleyber Torres
33. Juan Soto
34. Ronald Acuna Jr
35. Trea Turner
36. Mike Soroka
37. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
38. Walker Buehler
39. Shohei Ohtani
40. Christian Yelich

My biggest shun is probably MadBum. I just don't see him pulling a Scherzer or Verlander to gain traction on his counting stats. I also pulled Judge off due to his late start and injury history during his prime.

Edit: pulled Bryant and added Lindor.

I really like this list. I really considered everyone you listed except Hiura and Arenado. (I just completely forgot about Arenado). The ones you picked that came real close to joining my list were Simmons and Lindor. This exercise doesn’t just require you roll the dice a little on who will bloom later but you also have to roll the dice on who might stumble.

I love the intrigue of picking a player like Ohtani and I hope his freakish career turns into something lasting. Encarnacion is also interesting. He has a 69% chance of getting to 500. If he can get there, he’ll become a lock. There’s a player on both of our lists who fits a similar mold...Stanton. At the moment he has a 12% chance of getting to 500 because of last season. But if he comes back and hits 33 bombs this year, his chances move back up to 42%. I think odds are likely one of them gets to 500 and one doesn’t. At the moment Encarnacion is statistically more likely, but I still bet on Stanton. (Of course you bet on both). Either way, I’m not too confident about either. For Stanton he’ll either end up being a slam dunk like Killebrew or he’ll end up being a just miss like Colavito.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by 66_Fiat

My biggest shun is probably MadBum. I just don't see him pulling a Scherzer or Verlander to gain traction on his counting stats. I also pulled Judge off due to his late start and injury history during his prime.

PS. I definitely struggled on MadBum too. For me I feel like he’s got a decent shot at 3,000 strikeouts which would make his case a lot stronger. (He has a 33% chance of that). He reminds me a little of Bret Saberhagen and David Cone. Both of whom I think will make it one day.

Judge is definitely a stretch pick. I admit, those 52 HRs still impress me. But yeah, he needs to have another one of “those” season this year or he will quickly turn into Kevin Mitchell.

[Archangel1775]

Wow, I had no idea Encarnacion was so close to 500. I also see that Nelson Cruz is just over 400. He's go 1 more year on contract which could put him anywhere from 425-445. But he could end up like Carlos Delgado, who was probably at 90% plus to hit 500 after 38 Home Runs at 36 getting to 473...then done...

[TraderJake]

Tatis is generational, injuries are the only thing that can keep him out.

[Neo]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Wow, I had no idea Encarnacion was so close to 500. I also see that Nelson Cruz is just over 400. He's go 1 more year on contract which could put him anywhere from 425-445. But he could end up like Carlos Delgado, who was probably at 90% plus to hit 500 after 38 Home Runs at 36 getting to 473...then done...

Edwin has been eerily consistent with his power. For almost a decade.

But I think he, by just a bit, lacks the staying power to get to 500.

Great slugger.

[Neo]

Originally Posted by TraderJake

Tatis is generational, injuries are the only thing that can keep him out.

I like this one. I dream on Tatis jr big time.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Wow, I had no idea Encarnacion was so close to 500. I also see that Nelson Cruz is just over 400. He's go 1 more year on contract which could put him anywhere from 425-445. But he could end up like Carlos Delgado, who was probably at 90% plus to hit 500 after 38 Home Runs at 36 getting to 473...then done...

I think that one of the interesting consequences of this era of the juiced ball and increasing strikeouts is going to be that 500 HR or 3000 K are no longer going to be automatic tickets to the HOF.

[66_Fiat]

I completely forgot Freeman on my list. I would replace Wander with Freddie.

I also considered Rendon, but he would need a really strong finish to hit the counting stats and make up for missing hardware.

[mfw13]

Another interesting thing is how late many pitchers develop.

Pedro Martinez didn't have his first HOF-quality season until age 25.
Tom Glavine didn't have his first HOF-quality season until age 25.
Maddux didn't have his first HOF-quality season until age 26.
Randy Johnson didn't have his first HOF-quality season until age 29.
John Smoltz didn't have his first HOF-quality season until age 29.

Curt Schilling didn't get his first Cy Young vote until age 30, and his first HOF-quality season was at age 34.

Verlander's and Scherzer's first great seasons were both at age 28.

Of the recent "without a doubt" HOF-level pitchers, only Kershaw was great from a young age. MadBum, Sale, and Strasburg would fall into this catergory if they make it, but on the flip side you've got burnouts like Lincecum and King Felix.