Baseball Free Agency 2019 - Page 4

abide · 02-12-2019, 04:20 PM

Spring Training has begun. Pitchers and Catchers have reported.
Every day for the past month, I read the sports headlines on the www: Harper and Machado have still not signed.

And then as a footnote, nobody else has signed, because every team, player, agent and GM is waiting for the Machado / Harper signings to happen first, and set the market, and come off the board.

It is clear to me, that there is a new world order in baseball free agency, with a combination of analytics and the luxury tax having a huge effect. With regard to analytics, I believe that the GM's have finally figured out that they should not offer long term deals and big money deals, in the same contract. The A-Rod deal of 10 years and $250 million with the Texas Rangers is a thing of the past. The agents and players don't get it, or don't know it, or don't accept it.

Now, a player like Harper can get $30 million per year for 2 years, or he can get $25 million per year for 8 years. But he can't have both, and he can't have 10 years. [with the exception being a guy like Mike Trout might get both]

It's not collusion as the players and agents want us to think. And holding out and having press conferences to spout off about a potential strike the next time the MLB and union negotiate. Read my lips, Its what the fan who loves analytics knows, a team that hands out a 10 year max money deal might have a chance to compete for 2 years, but after that they will be saddled with the big contract, unable to improve, as the players skill diminishes.

Throw in that top athletes often get hurt, and some are able to come back from injury, and some do not. Some come back, as a shell of their former self, and not as the studs they once were.

I am a Pujols fan, and I am an Angel fan, and I will never forget what the analytics guys wrote when the Angels signed him. They will be lucky to get 2 good years, then at age 32, he will very likely begin to decline. At age 34 and beyond, he will no longer be in his prime, and will not be worth the kind of money they have agreed to pay.

Once Harper and Machado and Boras come to accept and understand the new dynamic, they will need to decide on which option they want. Money or years.

The second tier free agents, and lower tier, who are very good players, such as an Ace like Dallas Keuchel, or a catcher like Yasmani Grandal, also need to see how this is playing out. They need to decide if they want security of having a deal early in free agency, and will take a discount to get it. Or a hometown deal early in free agency, and will take a discount. Or a long term deal [4-8 years] and will take a discount. Or they can wait, with uncertainty, and potentially a need to scramble, and take a 1 year deal.

Only when Machado and Harper sign, at the last minute, will things open up for other guys. The Giants and Padres and White Sox, who are rumored to still be in the mix to get one of these guys, are not going to sign another player, while the big fish is the target. But when they don't land the whale, they may sign a couple of smaller fish.

02-12-2019, 04:20 PM	#1
abide Member Join Date: Jan 2017 Location: SoCal Posts: 343	Baseball Free Agency 2019 Spring Training has begun. Pitchers and Catchers have reported. Every day for the past month, I read the sports headlines on the www: Harper and Machado have still not signed. And then as a footnote, nobody else has signed, because every team, player, agent and GM is waiting for the Machado / Harper signings to happen first, and set the market, and come off the board. It is clear to me, that there is a new world order in baseball free agency, with a combination of analytics and the luxury tax having a huge effect. With regard to analytics, I believe that the GM's have finally figured out that they should not offer long term deals and big money deals, in the same contract. The A-Rod deal of 10 years and $250 million with the Texas Rangers is a thing of the past. The agents and players don't get it, or don't know it, or don't accept it. Now, a player like Harper can get $30 million per year for 2 years, or he can get $25 million per year for 8 years. But he can't have both, and he can't have 10 years. [with the exception being a guy like Mike Trout might get both] It's not collusion as the players and agents want us to think. And holding out and having press conferences to spout off about a potential strike the next time the MLB and union negotiate. Read my lips, Its what the fan who loves analytics knows, a team that hands out a 10 year max money deal might have a chance to compete for 2 years, but after that they will be saddled with the big contract, unable to improve, as the players skill diminishes. Throw in that top athletes often get hurt, and some are able to come back from injury, and some do not. Some come back, as a shell of their former self, and not as the studs they once were. I am a Pujols fan, and I am an Angel fan, and I will never forget what the analytics guys wrote when the Angels signed him. They will be lucky to get 2 good years, then at age 32, he will very likely begin to decline. At age 34 and beyond, he will no longer be in his prime, and will not be worth the kind of money they have agreed to pay. Once Harper and Machado and Boras come to accept and understand the new dynamic, they will need to decide on which option they want. Money or years. The second tier free agents, and lower tier, who are very good players, such as an Ace like Dallas Keuchel, or a catcher like Yasmani Grandal, also need to see how this is playing out. They need to decide if they want security of having a deal early in free agency, and will take a discount to get it. Or a hometown deal early in free agency, and will take a discount. Or a long term deal [4-8 years] and will take a discount. Or they can wait, with uncertainty, and potentially a need to scramble, and take a 1 year deal. Only when Machado and Harper sign, at the last minute, will things open up for other guys. The Giants and Padres and White Sox, who are rumored to still be in the mix to get one of these guys, are not going to sign another player, while the big fish is the target. But when they don't land the whale, they may sign a couple of smaller fish.