First Buzz: 2018 Topps Heritage baseball cards

[phisouza33]

So how much for a Ohtani red auto out of the gates???

[Stech36]

If Ohtani doesn’t get a BC prospect Auto, this will be the card to own. The red will be his best card. I don’t even know if the TC or BC Super Auto will be worth more.

[okumeister]

Originally Posted by phisouza33

So how much for a Ohtani red auto out of the gates???

$2,000?
Maybe more?

I just hope that they actually do make it in red, instead of doing in gold like they did for Moncada in 2017 Heritage.

[Vols243]

Just think on average you get 6 autos a case.....That means $234 an auto.....I know you get SP and sets you can sell....but still

[kyle1707]

Series 1 checklist came out 2 weeks before

How about a checklist today topps ?

As far as 1425. Just 2 years ago I never would of guessed

This ranks up there as the craziest things in the hobby imo

[kyle1707]

Originally Posted by Vols243

Just think on average you get 6 autos a case.....That means $234 an auto.....I know you get SP and sets you can sell....but still

Most cases will give you 2 autos. Some 3

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Vols243

Just think on average you get 6 autos a case.....That means $234 an auto.....I know you get SP and sets you can sell....but still

two or three, not six

[mfisher27]

6 autos in a case might happen every 200-300 cases. You're looking at 1-3, probably 2-3 per case. Autos aren't what more Heritage either. They are definitely a big part but the SPs and variations are what move Heritage.

Originally Posted by Vols243

Just think on average you get 6 autos a case.....That means $234 an auto.....I know you get SP and sets you can sell....but still

[bwalter1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

two or three, not six

Also the value on heritage is not from the hits, or had been in the past I should say. I see the "hits" as extra. Thankfully I got in real early on cases so I don't have worry about the price it is now. I'll be breaking one of them for sure and the rest will be selling at the shop.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by Vols243

Just think on average you get 6 autos a case.....That means $234 an auto.....I know you get SP and sets you can sell....but still

The SPs and sets and parallels are worth well over 1K so the auto thing doesn't matter. You could make money without a single autograph (at original pricing). These new prices are now more than double what most distributors charged. I wouldn't open at current rices.

[mfisher27]

Outside of hype/performance at the time of release, the supers will always be worth more. There's going to be between 25-69 red autos. They'll definitely be super collectible but unless he is absolutely horrible, his supers will be worth more. A single red could sell for more than a super but that would be because of the current hype and would have to happen with a severe drop in performance at the release of TC or BC, which I don't see happening with the market in Japan playing a big role.

Originally Posted by Stech36

If Ohtani doesn’t get a BC prospect Auto, this will be the card to own. The red will be his best card. I don’t even know if the TC or BC Super Auto will be worth more.

[Darth Bryzzo]

Originally Posted by okumeister

$2,000?
Maybe more?

The Dutch Tulip Mania had nothing on this.

[Vols243]

Originally Posted by bwalter1

Also the value on heritage is not from the hits, or had been in the past I should say. I see the "hits" as extra. Thankfully I got in real early on cases so I don't have worry about the price it is now. I'll be breaking one of them for sure and the rest will be selling at the shop.

I ordered early too, but now being told no guarantee I get what I ordered.

[kyle1707]

At 1200-1400 this is a bloodbath

FYI

Even 2017 with judge is at 1800

The odds of hitting judge or Ohtani auto is tough

Average case comes no where close to these numbers

[Vols243]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

At 1200-1400 this is a bloodbath

FYI

Even 2016 with judge is at 1800

The odds of hitting judge or Ohtani auto is tough

Average case comes no where close to these numbers

If they aren't careful this years baseball is gonna be like 2014 football when the hype was too much and the players didn't show and LCS are still trying to move it.

[phil]

makes 2018 Donruss seem like a bargain even at MAPP price

[phil]

Originally Posted by Vols243

If they aren't careful this years baseball is gonna be like 2014 football when the hype was too much and the players didn't show and LCS are still trying to move it.

There has to be a stock market style correction to overvalued commodities coming at some point. After Bowman there won't be enough money coming in from the general public market to support both these increased prices and increased print runs on every product going forward.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Hey, I'm hoping that Heritage goes to $2000 a case. That'll mean I make more money. But does anyone remember when 2018 Topps Flagship shot up. Where is it now?

Just more games being played by the distributors. I'm confident these cuts are just holdbacks. If the product slows down, those same distributors will all of a sudden have a lot of cases available.

I'll be curious to see how many cases I get. I haven't heard of any cuts yet, and I know my guy is the most honest in the business, so he won't screw around. But the guys he gets them from...who knows???

It'll be pretty sweet to get $89-$99 a box for these. We're talking PARTY TIME!!! But let's see what happens upon release.

The problem with having an LCS compared to being an "internet giant" is I have to answer to my customers individually. If I sell Customer X a box for $125 and it's $95 a week later, I look really bad. Nobody seems to care when an "internet giant" does it though.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

At 1200-1400 this is a bloodbath

FYI

Even 2016 with judge is at 1800

The odds of hitting judge or Ohtani auto is tough

Average case comes no where close to these numbers

lol - since when do ANY products come close to what you pay after you break one case? Heritage is a money maker for experienced breakers who break several cases. It is now ascending to heights where you have to hit a big one to make money, but if you do, you make a fortune - no different from any other high end, high risk, high reward product. And that's the shocker takeaway - at current pricing and future pricing, breaking Heritage has turned into a high-end release! (And like any high end release there are pros and cons to doing it.)

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by HadWayTooMuch

Hey, I'm hoping that Heritage goes to $2000 a case. That'll mean I make more money. But does anyone remember when 2018 Topps Flagship shot up. Where is it now?

Just more games being played by the distributors. I'm confident these cuts are just holdbacks. If the product slows down, those same distributors will all of a sudden have a lot of cases available.

I'll be curious to see how many cases I get. I haven't heard of any cuts yet, and I know my guy is the most honest in the business, so he won't screw around. But the guys he gets them from...who knows???

It'll be pretty sweet to get $89-$99 a box for these. We're talking PARTY TIME!!! But let's see what happens upon release.

The problem with having an LCS compared to being an "internet giant" is I have to answer to my customers individually. If I sell Customer X a box for $125 and it's $95 a week later, I look really bad. Nobody seems to care when an "internet giant" does it though.

you're selling at $75 day of release in the store, no?

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by Vols243

Just think on average you get 6 autos a case.....That means $234 an auto.....I know you get SP and sets you can sell....but still

Not 6....2-3 a case on average

[bd3d86]

Originally Posted by 13CardinalsFan

Not just the next two weeks for some LCS's. Happen to me last year starting with Topps Chrome. I haven't bought anything since. I would normally buy 15-20 cases a year of various products.

This is very true. I am extremely lucky that the owner of the LCS around me is a good friend.

Originally Posted by Vols243

Just think on average you get 6 autos a case.....That means $234 an auto.....I know you get SP and sets you can sell....but still

Yeah, 6 autos is crazy. I had 1 auto in my case last year (David Dahl blue). I still made good money and Judge hadn't even gone crazy yet.

[prospects]

I have been in this hobby since 2010 and I know absolutely nobody who can get me boxes or cases like you guys do. No good card shops, not distributors, no nothing.

What is your secret? I am tired of always having to just preorder online

[HadWayTooMuch]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

you're selling at $75 day of release in the store, no?

I won't have my price determined until I get my allotment. It will not be $75 a box. You missed the point to the post I know you are responding to. I'm happy I can actually make a profit now, unlike the days when I was forced to be near cost on some of these items to keep up with the internet.

As I've said many times, if I'm more expensive than the "internet giants," it's a cold product. If I'm cheaper, it's a hot product. Just that simple. It's how I can tell you Topps Series 1 is not hot right now, but Prizm basketball still is.

I guess it comes down to what you think a fair markup is on Product X. If it was furniture that cost $55-$60 a piece, I could sell it for $550-$750 per piece.

I'll determine fair market value upon release. But I guarantee I'll be cheaper than the "internet giants."

[mfw13]

In all seriousness, where does the insanity end?

A properly functioning market depends on three factors:

1) information symmetry....i.e. buyers and sellers both have roughly equal information with which to determine an item's worth. Not really an issue at this point with respect to sports cards.

2) the validity of contracts....this is becoming a huge issue in the hobby, as distributors are reneging on previously agreed contracts in order to hold back product and resell at a higher price. Topps has given no indication that the Heritage print run is being reduced, which means that distributors claiming that their allocation has been cut are playing fast and loose with the truth.

3) a balance between buyers and sellers...also becoming a problem, as speculators are seemingly starting to outnumber actual collectors. As popular as Heritage is, there is a price point at which people say "I'm not going to buy/open this box", which begs the question, who are all these people who are planning to hoard the product eventually going to sell to?

As exciting a player as Ohtani is, his upside is limited. Pitchers are rarely valued as highly as hitters (look at Kershaw's values in comparison to Trout's), and unlike Judge, Ohtani is playing for a team which has a fairly small fan base. Asian sales could be a factor, like they have been with Ichiro, but there simply aren't that many Japanese baseball card collectors.

And if past checklists and ratios are anything to go by, hitting and Ohtani auto or SSP is going to be extremely hard to do (think once every 20+ cases).