Hall of Famers We Are Watching in 2020

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Honestly, I didn't watch them closely in 2019 but history says otherwise.

Which numbers? ERA? FIP? Strikeouts?

Gerrit Cole has a very strong case for being better. CYA voting doesn't mean they got it right.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Which numbers? ERA? FIP? Strikeouts?

Gerrit Cole has a very strong case for being better. CYA voting doesn't mean they got it right.

Fair point but when someone looks at who the best pitcher was in a certain year, they are going to type in "Who was the best pitcher in 2019" and I'm certain Verlander's name is going to come up more than Cole's name. Doubtful the average person is going to care about FIP,WHIP or DIP. If you get anything from this debate, just know that you aren't average. God Bless.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Does he need to be good, or just stay healthy?

Give me what you think the rest of his career needs to look like to make the HOF in your mind.

Like if he's 2021-2025 Charlie Morton, does that get him in?

One would think health is paramount because you can't be "good" or "not good" without it. But the rest of his career needs to look better than:

2021 Games Started: 15
2022 Games Started: 11
2023 Games Started: 6
2024 Games Started: 3

He's off to a great start in 2025 though!

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Fair point but when someone looks at who the best pitcher was in a certain year, they are going to type in "Who was the best pitcher in 2019" and I'm certain Verlander's name is going to come up more than Cole's name. obody is going to care about FIP,WHIP or DIP.

No, but people really seem to care about ERA and strikeouts.

Verlander won a popularity contest. It was 17-13 in terms of 1st place votes.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by whitmm

No, but people really seem to care about ERA and strikeouts.

Verlander won a popularity contest. It was 17-13 in terms of 1st place votes.

Again, didn't really pay much attention to the Astros. Besides, the original argument was that DeGrom was "easily" the best pitcher in 2019. Maybe he was the best overall but he surely wasn't easily the best.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

One would think health is paramount because you can't be "good" or "not good" without it. But the rest of his career needs to look better than:

2021 Games Started: 15
2022 Games Started: 11
2023 Games Started: 6
2024 Games Started: 3

He's off to a great start in 2025 though!

So if he's 2021-25 Charlie Morton over the next 5 years, is that enough? 120 starts, a 4 ERA, 10 wins a season.

If the only argument is he needs more starts, then that's a pretty weak argument for keeping him out.

And I strongly disagree with you on your "you can't be good or not good without health" line. You don't need 30+ starts to determine if someone was good. That's a cop out to avoid answering the question.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Like if he's 2021-2025 Charlie Morton, does that get him in?

His rate stats are going to be good enough to get him in irrespective of how well he pitches for the rest of his career.

700 IP with a 4.00 ERA/1.20 WHIP still would leave his career ERA around 3.00 and his career WHIP around 1.00, which would still make him one of the best starters ever.

Just has to stay healthy long enough to get over 2000 IP and he'll be in.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by mfw13

His rate stats are going to be good enough to get him in irrespective of how well he pitches for the rest of his career.

700 IP with a 4.00 ERA/1.20 WHIP still would leave his career ERA around 3.00 and his career WHIP around 1.00, which would still make him one of the best starters ever.

Just has to stay healthy long enough to get over 2000 IP and he'll be in.

What you described is basically a league average pitcher. 4.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP was league average among qualified players in 2024.

I guess where I'm struggling is if it doesn't matter how he pitches, as long has he gets innings, then why does it matter that he gets the innings?

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I had to look it up but he's listed at #43 and I'm assuming you're talking about Active Pitchers, so the next man listed is Clayton Kershaw at #46

Jacob DeGrom (12 Seasons,37 Years Old) 2.500 ERA in 1443.1 Innings Pitched

Clayton Kershaw (18 Seasons, 37 Years Old) 2.514 ERA in 2763.1 Inning Pitched

Though both have a great ERA it's clear which is more impressive. I'm not digging any further with your questions as the bottom line is likely going to be the same, that he's gotta stay on the field.

first all time for any pitcher that has debuted in the last 100 years. thats mildly impressive

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

The word picture, statistic picture and award picture just doesn't show that he was "easily" the best pitcher during his peak unless that peak was just 2018.

If you looked at 2018-2021 Degrom started 10-15 less games then most of the top pitchers in baseball over that time frame. He still had the highest WAR of any pitcher in baseball for those 4 years and 8 WAR advrantage overf 5th best pitcher in baseball despite starting 20 games fewers.

Lets look at some of the top ERA over that 4 year stretch:

Sub 2: Degrom
2-2.1: Nobody
2.1-2.2 Nobody
2.2-2.3 Nobody
2.3-2.4 Nobody
2.4-2.5 Nobody
2.5-2.6 Verlander
2.6-2.7 Nobody
2.8-3.9 Max, Buehler, Cole, Kershaw

What about FIP:
Degrom: 2.15
2.15 - 2.75: Nobody in baseball


So yes, he was far and away easily the best pitcher in baseball

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by whitmm

If the only argument is he needs more starts, then that's a pretty weak argument for keeping him out.

And I strongly disagree with you on your "you can't be good or not good without health" line. You don't need 30+ starts to determine if someone was good. That's a cop out to avoid answering the question.

Sure man, if you don't think health is important and pitching 15,11 games, 6 games and 3 games over the previous four years in 162 game seasons is enough for the Hall of Fame, more power to you.

[ThoseBackPages]

ALL RISE!!

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

If you looked at 2018-2021 Degrom started 10-15 less games then most of the top pitchers in baseball over that time frame. He still had the highest WAR of any pitcher in baseball for those 4 years and 8 WAR advrantage overf 5th best pitcher in baseball despite starting 20 games fewers.

Lets look at some of the top ERA over that 4 year stretch:

Sub 2: Degrom
2-2.1: Nobody
2.1-2.2 Nobody
2.2-2.3 Nobody
2.3-2.4 Nobody
2.4-2.5 Nobody
2.5-2.6 Verlander
2.6-2.7 Nobody
2.8-3.9 Max, Buehler, Cole, Kershaw

What about FIP:
Degrom: 2.15
2.15 - 2.75: Nobody in baseball


So yes, he was far and away easily the best pitcher in baseball

Lets give him 2018 and 2019 since he won the Cy Young both those years. Forget the American League and their pitchers.

Let's also ask AI who the best pitcher was in 2020

I'll cut & paste the same question "Who was the best pitcher in the 2020 MLB season"

Google AI:
AI Overview
In 2020, ESPN reports that Shane Bieber led the league in strikeouts and had the lowest ERA. Bieber's dominance led to him winning the AL Cy Young Award and MLB.com reports, as well as being recognized as the best pitcher in the league by FanGraphs.

ChatGPT:
In the 2020 MLB season, the widely recognized best pitchers were the Cy Young Award winners, honors given to the top pitchers in each league:

�� American League: Shane Bieber (Cleveland Indians)
Won the AL Cy Young unanimously—the first Cleveland pitcher to do so since 2000
reddit.com
+9
mlb.com
+9
cyyoungpitchers.com
+9
.

Led MLB in wins (8), ERA (1.63), and strikeouts (122)—completing the pitching Triple Crown
as.com
+3
mlb.com
+3
en.wikipedia.org
+3
.

Set records like reaching 100 strikeouts in just 62⅓ innings—the fastest ever in MLB
baseball-reference.com
+15
mlb.com
+15
cyyoungpitchers.com
+15
.

�� National League: Trevor Bauer (Cincinnati Reds)
Won the NL Cy Young, earning 27 of 30 first-place votes
reddit.com
+6
mlb.com
+6
en.wikipedia.org
+6
.

Posted an impressive 1.73 ERA, led NL in ERA, and ranked first in WHIP (0.795)
reddit.com
+15
en.wikipedia.org
+15
cyyoungpitchers.com
+15
.

Other contenders
Yu Darvish finished a strong second in NL Cy Young voting, going 8–3 with a 2.01 ERA
en.wikipedia.org
.

Alexa:

Trevor Bauer

Edge Co-Pilot Vision:

Shane Beiber

--------------------------------------------------

I'm not going to waste time with 2021 but its not looking good as far as history is concerned. Even the BBWA saw other pitchers as having greater seasons than DeGrom. So again, take the "2-Year Peak" and sure, GOAT.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Sure man, if you don't think health is important and pitching 15,11 games, 6 games and 3 games over the previous four years in 162 game seasons is enough for the Hall of Fame, more power to you.

Dude, I didn't say health isn't important.

For you to say you can't determine if deGrom was good or not good in 2021 because he only made 15 starts is an extremely weak argument.

For you to say it doesn't matter how he pitches, he just needs to pitch 560 more innings (gets him to 2000 innings) is an extremely weak argument. Basically what you're saying is his numbers are already good enough, you just don't like that he hasn't pitched more.

Last time I checked, there's no "what have you done for me lately" requirement to voting. In no way did I even remotely suggest that what he's done over that last 4 seasons alone was enough to get him in. But, yes, I believe that his entire body of work as of right now is good enough to get him in.

Mike Trout has barely played the last 6 years. I'm sure you'll disagree, but he's going to be elected too.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

first all time for any pitcher that has debuted in the last 100 years. thats mildly impressive

I believe Mariano Rivera is ahead of them both if you want to go back 100 years. Personally it's comparing apples to oranges.

[whitmm]

Arch, the argument was never Jacob deGrom was the best pitcher in every single year. So not really sure what you think you're proving by trying to break it down year by year. That's neat that Shane Bieber was better in 2020. What about 2018, 2019, and 2021?

Let me guess, if I asked you who was the best pitcher of the 1990s, you'd probably give me a list of who Cy Young winner was each season instead of an answer based on the full body of work.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Lets give him 2018 and 2019 since he won the Cy Young both those years. Forget the American League and their pitchers.

Let's also ask AI who the best pitcher was in 2020

I'll cut & paste the same question "Who was the best pitcher in the 2020 MLB season"

Google AI:
AI Overview
In 2020, ESPN reports that Shane Bieber led the league in strikeouts and had the lowest ERA. Bieber's dominance led to him winning the AL Cy Young Award and MLB.com reports, as well as being recognized as the best pitcher in the league by FanGraphs.

ChatGPT:
In the 2020 MLB season, the widely recognized best pitchers were the Cy Young Award winners, honors given to the top pitchers in each league:

�� American League: Shane Bieber (Cleveland Indians)
Won the AL Cy Young unanimously—the first Cleveland pitcher to do so since 2000
reddit.com
+9
mlb.com
+9
cyyoungpitchers.com
+9
.

Led MLB in wins (8), ERA (1.63), and strikeouts (122)—completing the pitching Triple Crown
as.com
+3
mlb.com
+3
en.wikipedia.org
+3
.

Set records like reaching 100 strikeouts in just 62⅓ innings—the fastest ever in MLB
baseball-reference.com
+15
mlb.com
+15
cyyoungpitchers.com
+15
.

�� National League: Trevor Bauer (Cincinnati Reds)
Won the NL Cy Young, earning 27 of 30 first-place votes
reddit.com
+6
mlb.com
+6
en.wikipedia.org
+6
.

Posted an impressive 1.73 ERA, led NL in ERA, and ranked first in WHIP (0.795)
reddit.com
+15
en.wikipedia.org
+15
cyyoungpitchers.com
+15
.

Other contenders
Yu Darvish finished a strong second in NL Cy Young voting, going 8–3 with a 2.01 ERA
en.wikipedia.org
.

Alexa:

Trevor Bauer

Edge Co-Pilot Vision:

Shane Beiber

--------------------------------------------------

I'm not going to waste time with 2021 but its not looking good as far as history is concerned. Even the BBWA saw other pitchers as having greater seasons than DeGrom. So again, take the "2-Year Peak" and sure, GOAT.

I don't even know what point you are trying to make right now.

2020 was a covid year for one, if they played the entire season Degrom would have won the Cy Young.

Is your argument that Degrom was the best pitcher in baseball in 2018, best in baseball in 2019, best in history of baseball for 1/2 of 2021 but because he took 3rd in Cy Young because of Covid's small sample size he wasn't best pitcher in baseball for 2018-2021?

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

I don't even know what point you are trying to make right now.

2020 was a covid year for one, if they played the entire season Degrom would have won the Cy Young.

Is your argument that Degrom was the best pitcher in baseball in 2018, best in baseball in 2019, best in history of baseball for 1/2 of 2021 but because he took 3rd in Cy Young because of Covid's small sample size he wasn't best pitcher in baseball for 2018-2021?

That's exactly what his argument is.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

I don't even know what point you are trying to make right now.

2020 was a covid year for one, if they played the entire season Degrom would have won the Cy Young.

Is your argument that Degrom was the best pitcher in baseball in 2018, best in baseball in 2019, best in history of baseball for 1/2 of 2021 but because he took 3rd in Cy Young because of Covid's small sample size he wasn't best pitcher in baseball for 2018-2021?

Originally Posted by whitmm

That's exactly what his argument is.

Again, the original argument was that he was "easily" the best in baseball at his peak. That's simply just not the case.

Based on you and your buddies, his peak was 2018-2021.

My point is, if the BBWA of America didn't believe he was the best pitcher in 2020 and 2021. AI doesn't state his name in 2020 and 2021 as the best pitcher, how is history going to remember him as the best pitcher from 2018-2021 when he wasn't the best pitcher for half those years? Easily, it wont.

I mean come on now.... Degrom was the best pitcher in baseball for half of 2021....the logic is to forget the other half of the season he didn't play in? The other pitchers wo played a full season in 2021 don't count? What kind of argument is that?

So you each can pretend that an oft injured pitcher is a better player than ones that have had longer careers, won more MVP's, Cy Young Awards, playoff victories and World Championships but that's just not the case. We're talking about overall body of work right or all of the above doesn't count? Hanging your case on a couple advanced stats just doesn't do it for me and as evidence suggests, history.

I like Degrom and own a few cards but I'm not going to BS my way into trying to convince people that "Degrom is the best pitcher eveerrrrrrr!" and is a "Hall of Famer right now!" just so they go up in value a few hundred dollars. It's ok, he'll still have value as a team great that just couldn't stay healthy to lead their team to the promised land.

I'm going to agree to disagree so the thread doesn't become washed out by the incessant debate about Glass Degrom. I'd rather talk about young pitchers like Greene, Perez, Abbott and Brown.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

AI doesn't state his name in 2020 and 2021 as the best pitcher, how is history going to remember him as the best pitcher from 2018-2021 when he wasn't the best pitcher for half those years? Easily, it wont.

your argument is to absurd to even respond to, so I'll just defer to Mookie's take

https://www.facebook.com/SNY/videos/...2909651766505/

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

It's going to be hard for anyone to take you serious when you post nonsense like this. There are two peaks below. One of them has 2 World Series Championships and 3 Cy Young Awards. We know who it's not.

There isn't a person alive on this planet who wouldn't take deGrom's 2018-2021 over anybody active at that time, including you and whatever nonsense you try to bring. Despite missing half of a season during that stretch he was #1 in WAR by 2 over Scherzer and 3 over Wheeler and #1 in ERA by 0.62 over Verlander, and #1 in ERA+ by 30 points vs Verlander (who threw 100 less IP) and 50 points vs Scherzer.

I'm still waiting for someone to show me a pitcher with that level of dominance that isn't in the HOF?

[rwperu34]

This is the bottom line. Here is the list of players who have a lower ERA and more IP than deGrom;

That's not a typo. The answer is nobody. The only pitcher with even 1000 innings and a lower ERA is Mariano Rivera.

Since 1920, of pitchers with 1,000+ IP, the top 9 in ERA are all in the HOF. The first one that isn't is Quisenberry. deGrom currently sits at #2, a quarter run and 400 IP ahead.

If I drop the threshold to 900 IP you get a 2nd pitcher with a better ERA than deGrom...HOFer Billy Wagner.

If I lower the threshold to 700 IP you get two more pitchers with a lower ERA than deGrom, neither of which is in the HOF; Jonathan Papelbon and some dude named Dave Brown. deGrom is over 1400 IP.

If he retired today, deGrom is in. Heck, getting to 2,000 IP could hurt his chances is he doesn't maintain some level of dominance. And I can tell you for damn certain that six seasons (call it 900 IP) of league average will do nothing for his case.

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I'm still waiting for someone to show me a pitcher with that level of dominance that isn't in the HOF?

Tim Lincecum?

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Tim Lincecum?

For comparison during Lincecum 2 year stretch where he won 2 CY only he had and ERA just over 2.5 and like 10.5 K/9. DeGrom has a slightly lower ERA and higher K/9 over his entire career. Tim would have a slight edge in ERA+ in those 2 years vs DeGrom career but not if you include his only 2 good other years. Obv the dropoff after year 4 is crazy.

I'd guess that Santana probably had the closest run but he was nowhere near as dominant as Degrom during that stretch.

Degrom 2018-2021 had a sub 50 ERA- when verlander was next closest at 60.
Santana best stretch he has a 64 ERA- which was second in baseball to Clemens. 75 FIP for Santana to 50 for Degrom (lol). DeGrom just that good

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

This is the bottom line. Here is the list of players who have a lower ERA and more IP than deGrom;

That's not a typo. The answer is nobody. The only pitcher with even 1000 innings and a lower ERA is Mariano Rivera.

Since 1920, of pitchers with 1,000+ IP, the top 9 in ERA are all in the HOF. The first one that isn't is Quisenberry. deGrom currently sits at #2, a quarter run and 400 IP ahead.

If I drop the threshold to 900 IP you get a 2nd pitcher with a better ERA than deGrom...HOFer Billy Wagner.

If I lower the threshold to 700 IP you get two more pitchers with a lower ERA than deGrom, neither of which is in the HOF; Jonathan Papelbon and some dude named Dave Brown. deGrom is over 1400 IP.

If he retired today, deGrom is in. Heck, getting to 2,000 IP could hurt his chances is he doesn't maintain some level of dominance. And I can tell you for damn certain that six seasons (call it 900 IP) of league average will do nothing for his case.

I totally agree that deGrom is already a Hall of Famer. He’s arguably the best pure pitcher of his era when healthy. But I think people take issue with the word “easily” being thrown around. That claim doesn’t hold up when you look at the full body of work from his contemporaries.

If we’re talking about dominance per inning, deGrom is elite. But his window is relatively short, and he’s competing with guys like Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer—each of whom has over 2x the innings pitched, 210+ wins, and 3,000+ strikeouts. They’ve also won multiple Cy Youngs and stayed dominant for over a decade.

Kershaw, for example, had a career 2.48 ERA over 2,700+ IP. After 2023, deGrom technically has a slightly better ERA after Kershaw has struggled the past 2 years —but deGrom has over half the innings. That’s not “easily” better. And if you want to cherry-pick dominance, Kershaw from 2011–2017 posted a 2.10 ERA over 1,452 IP—which is more innings than deGrom has thrown in his entire career. That’s 207 starts, averaging over 7 IP per game. Unreal workload and dominance.

Let’s say they both retire the same year. Voters are absolutely going to prioritize Kershaw—13 straight years of dominance (2011–2023), a better résumé, and far more volume. I hate Kershaw. I hate the Dodgers. But the guy has been almost twice the pitcher deGrom has been over the long haul. That’s the bar deGrom is being compared against.

So yeah, deGrom is in the conversation for best of his era. But “easily”? Not with his peer group.