Luka Doncic Questionable Autograph Analysis

[rogermaris]

Here's an easy to read diagram illustrating why cherry picking is bad evidence. If I'd seen the two autographs at the top, and didn't know anything about who signed them, I would naturally assume they were signed by the same person. I would have no reason to assume they weren't.

However, the autograph on the left was written by ilikenicecards. He made an entire sheet where he tried Luka’s autograph to see how long it would take him (post #687). I cherry picked one of his autographs and put it next to one of Luka’s UD autographs on the right.

The only way to determine that the left autograph is a forgery is by going back to post 687 and seeing the entire wall of signatures done by ilikenicecards. When you look at all of them collectively, and compare them to all the UD sticker autos, it becomes very clear that they are signed by different hands. In fact, they aren't even close.

But if you’d only shown me the two cherry picked autographs, I never would have guessed.

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

So it's a match. Thanks OP.

It's a piece of contrived evidence presented in bad faith in order to reinforce a pre-determined conclusion. It is not evidence of anything.

The only evidence that is useful at this point would be evidence of a witnessed signing where Luka signs the questionable l u l u auto consistently the way it appears from his unwitnessed signings.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by rogermaris

It's a piece of contrived evidence presented in bad faith in order to reinforce a pre-determined conclusion. It is not evidence of anything.

Siiiiggghhhh

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[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Siiiiggghhhh

Lol, if the only way you can support your conclusion is by cherry picking the evidence you like and ignoring all the other evidence, then your conclusion probably isn't very sound.

I already explained to you why the logic is faulty, but here it is again:

Originally Posted by rogermaris

You seem to be insistant that if you can just find one single autograph that resembles one of the questionable ones, that it will vindicate Luka. This is extremely faulty logic, especially when dealing with pieces of evidence that have natural variations (as any signature will).

Please read this example that illustrates the fault in your logic:

A scientist tells me that telephone polls are different than trees. I argue that the telephone pole outside my house is actually a tree too. The scientist explains that trees generally have certain qualities that distinguish them from a telephone pole. They have branches and leaves, etc.

I tell the scientist I can prove him wrong by finding a tree that doesn't have branches and leaves on them. By your logic, I have proven this scientist wrong! Telelphone poles and trees must be the same thing because I found a tree that sort of looks like a telephone pole

In reality, when I go to a forest, even though some of the trees might sort of resemble telephone poles, I can instantly see that what I'm looking at are different than telephone poles. Then when I look at a group of telephone poles together it becomes instantly obvious that I'm not looking at trees.

This isn't about cherry picking data so much as its about looking at patterns, contextualizing them, and then drawing conclusions.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by rogermaris

Lol, if the only way you can support your conclusion is by cherry picking the evidence you like and ignoring all the other evidence, then your conclusion probably isn't very sound.

I already explained to you why the logic is faulty, but here it is again:

Ok Ive tried to keep an open mind about you but honestly Im done interacting with you. Low blows that continue to attack my character that are completely unnecessary, and are clear desperation shots.

At least we'll always share that Webber autographics deal. Thanks btw

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[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Ok Ive tried to keep an open mind about you but honestly Im done interacting with you. Low blows that continue to attack my character that are completely unnecessary, and are clear desperation shots.

At least we'll always share that Webber autographics deal. Thanks btw

I apologize if you feel I've dealt you any low blows. I have never meant to attack your character; absolutely none of this is personal. I will say that sometimes I feel like I take a lot of time to put together evidence only to have you ignore it or dismiss it in a very condescending, flippant manner. For instance when I took the time to address your question with a nuanced response, even including a diagram, you casually dismissed all of it with a sarcastic:

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

So it's a match. Thanks OP.

Or this, in response to an analysis I spent several hours on, when I asked you why you dismissed it without addressing it:

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Because your analysis sucked.

Anyway, there's really no point in continuing to go back and forth like this. Until we get a collection of the UD autos to look at, or a video/photo from a signing session, we're just going in circles.

Again, I'm sorry if I ever offended you personally. Hopefully we can leave it all on the court.

[rogermaris]

And on that note, I think I'm gonna duck out of this thread for a bit. It's clearly run it's course. I'll be back when the UD Goodwin autos are out or if video/photo evidence of a signing surfaces. Because at this point, it feels like we're just going around in circles.

Sorry to anyone if I came off as a dick while making any of my points. I respect anyone who still holds the belief that Luka signs all his autographs, even if I personally believe he doesn't.

[ilikenicecards]

I don't know if a lower case l and a lower case u in cursive is going to tell much. The spacing between the letters seems to match all of the autos which I think is something the experts analyze. I think some letters are more useful in trying to say match or two different sigs but all we have are l's and u's.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by rogermaris

Sorry to anyone if I came off as a dick while making any of my points. I respect anyone who still holds the belief that Luka signs all his autographs, even if I personally believe he doesn't.

Fair enough.



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[theLUCKYshow]

Here is a photo of Luka holding one of the shoe swatch autos from his UD signing about 3 weeks ago according to UD:Many in the "multiple-signers" camp believe this is damning to the "luka signs all of his autos" camp because its clearly not like his Panini-style questioned autos, and was signed in front of a UD rep. Some even said he signed the UD cards like his next day autos or ip autos. Well did he?

My usual grainy special:Compared to a few of his Next Days:And a few of his fanatics:^^(look how rushed those 7s are)

Now first off, I agree that the UD auto above isnt l u l u. However, the Next Days and Fanatics autos arent a match either with the UD auto. Yes, there are similarities, mainly the size ratio between the "l"s and "u"s, but the spacing between the letters is noticeably different. Instead, the spacing in the UD auto is very similar to the spacing found in Lukas l u l u-style auto. I've never seen any Luka auto like it before.

Are we looking at a new variation of Lukas auto? Looks like it to me.

And remember my original grainy pic from the UD video?

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[M4YH3M1]

I had watched the video signing about 20 times and I had a hunch that the signatures were his scribble style. I was just waiting here slowly ticking the days away till the cards were released.

[ninjacookies]

To me there's a big glaring difference between the 'most likely legit' Lulu autos and the 'most likely mom' loopy lulu autos. And that's the second L. On most all that I've seen on the 'likely legit' versions, the second L has a much skinnier, almost closed loop.

Conversely, both L's on the mom version are very wide and loopy.

That's quite suspicious to me.

[theleica]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Here is a photo of Luka holding one of the shoe swatch autos from his UD signing about 3 weeks ago according to UD:Many in the "multiple-signers" camp believe this is damning to the "luka signs all of his autos" camp because its clearly not like his Panini-style questioned autos, and was signed in front of a UD rep. Some even said he signed the UD cards like his next day autos or ip autos. Well did he?

My usual grainy special:Compared to a few of his Next Days:And a few of his fanatics:^^(look how rushed those 7s are)

Now first off, I agree that the UD auto above isnt l u l u. However, the Next Days and Fanatics autos arent a match either. Yes, there are similarities, mainly the size ratio between the "l"s and "u"s, but the spacing between the letters is noticeably different. Instead, the spacing in the UD auto is very similar to the spacing found in Lukas l u l u-style auto. I've never seen any Luka auto like it before.

Are we looking at a new variation of Lukas auto? Looks like it to me.

And remember my original grainy pic from the UD video?

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Everyone has checked out of this thread because of these posts. I don't know how much more obvious it has to be that all of these autos in this post are all signed by him. They all have the same qualities to them.

And no I am not a hand writing expert but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that these are definitely his real signature.

Out of curiosity are you or someone in your family a defense attorney or attorney? That is all I can think of that makes any sort of sense right now.

You fight and fight, then relent, move the line in the sand, then rinse and repeat. You have willingly attacked others in this thread and discounted everything they have said, all while claiming others are personally attacking you.

At this point, with all the work you have done, you should feel comfortable buying the National Treasures Luka Doncic RPA you desire. I personally wouldn't feel comfortable but I am not you.

And let me just say, this isn't an attack on you. None of this ever was ever personal. You do you.

[cp312]

Originally Posted by rogermaris

I apologize if you feel I've dealt you any low blows. I have never meant to attack your character; absolutely none of this is personal. I will say that sometimes I feel like I take a lot of time to put together evidence only to have you ignore it or dismiss it in a very condescending, flippant manner.

Bolded for accuracy.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

To me there's a big glaring difference between the 'most likely legit' Lulu autos and the 'most likely mom' loopy lulu autos. And that's the second L. On most all that I've seen on the 'likely legit' versions, the second L has a much skinnier, almost closed loop.

Conversely, both L's on the mom version are very wide and loopy.

That's quite suspicious to me.

Fair point.

So do you then believe several of Superfan Greg’s auto from the YouTube video are fakes? Many have the second non-closed loop.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by theleica

Everyone has checked out of this thread because of these posts. I don't know how much more obvious it has to be that all of these autos in this post are all signed by him. They all have the same qualities to them.

And no I am not a hand writing expert but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that these are definitely his real signature.

Out of curiosity are you or someone in your family a defense attorney or attorney? That is all I can think of that makes any sort of sense right now.

You fight and fight, then relent, move the line in the sand, then rinse and repeat. You have willingly attacked others in this thread and discounted everything they have said, all while claiming others are personally attacking you.

At this point, with all the work you have done, you should feel comfortable buying the National Treasures Luka Doncic RPA you desire. I personally wouldn't feel comfortable but I am not you.

And let me just say, this isn't an attack on you. None of this ever was ever personal. You do you.

1st off theleica, I respect you and you don’t throw low blows. If you don’t think people have attacked me every step of the thread, then you haven’t been following. In regards to rogermaris, he said his piece and I’ll keep an open mind moving forward.

In regards to your take, I agree that those autos are from the same hand (duh), but they aren’t the same style of auto. I don’t see how you can say that the UD auto is a match with his IP autos, and like I stated above I’ve never seen any Luka auto like it. Can you show me a luka auto that is a match with the auto on the card Luka is holding?

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

1st off theleica, I respect you and you don’t throw low blows. If you don’t think people have attacked me every step of the thread, then you haven’t been following. In regards to rogermaris, he said his piece and I’ll keep an open mind moving forward.

And in regards to your take, I agree that those autos are from the same hand (duh), but they aren’t the same style of auto. I don’t see how you can say that the UD auto is a match with his IP autos, and like I stated above I’ve never seen any Luka auto like it. Can you show me a luka auto that is a match with the auto on the card Luka is holding?

Edit:
Forgot to answer a few things. I’m married to an IP litigator who has no idea about this thread but I assume some of her skills have rubbed off on me? She’s badass. Don’t know how that pertains to anything but there you go.

And no ones visiting this thread anymore?

[theleica]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

1st off theleica, I respect you and you don’t throw low blows. If you don’t think people have attacked me every step of the thread, then you haven’t been following. In regards to rogermaris, he said his piece and I’ll keep an open mind moving forward.

In regards to your take, I agree that those autos are from the same hand (duh), but they aren’t the same style of auto. I don’t see how you can say that the UD auto is a match with his IP autos, and like I stated above I’ve never seen any Luka auto like it. Can you show me a luka auto that is a match with the auto on the card Luka is holding?

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Edit:
Forgot to answer a few things. I’m married to an IP litigator who has no idea about this thread but I assume some of her skills have rubbed off on me? She’s badass. Don’t know how that pertains to anything but there you go.

And no ones visiting this thread anymore?

I feel as though the IP autos match the UD auto. The autos may not dead on in terms of every one being exactly the same but the slant and overall style of them match. Again, I am not an expert but if you showed me all of those I would have no issue. To give you the benefit of doubt, I will withhold judgement until we have a better picture/scan of the UD auto.

To the second point, it doesn't pertain to much. A few really good friends are attorneys and their style in discussions is very very similar to yours. That's all.

Of course, members are still visiting the thread, but the opportunity for discourse has reached its maturity at this point.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by theleica

Of course, members are still visiting the thread, but the opportunity for discourse has reached its maturity at this point.

Do you feel this thread was in a better place a week ago when there was no real debate and virtually everyone believed Luka used a ghostwriter after the UD video?


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[theleica]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Do you feel this thread was in a better place a week ago when there was no real debate and virtually everyone believed Luka used a ghostwriter after the UD video?

And has the debate really just begun?

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This is what I mean. No matter what I or anyone says, you will use questions to attempt to find holes in a statement.

The debate at this point has run its course. I have no doubt that it will pick up again down the line. The thread will end up where it ends up.

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by theleica

The debate at this point has run its course. I have no doubt that it will pick up again down the line. The thread will end up where it ends up.

Ok, it hasnt for me, and Ive received a flood of messages from people all over the world to keep it going.

So...

Cant stop... wont stop...

All of your attempts to shut me up wont work. Ill continue to post when I find something interesting.

Next time just take a glance and move on instead of derailing and asking questions that arent pertinent.

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[Lee42]

Just adding some Noir autos in for comparison......

[Pathora]

Those are the questionable ones...it is interesting that his Spotlight auto is a redemption, would be interesting if he signed those in person with Panini.

[Lee42]

Originally Posted by Pathora

Those are the questionable ones...it is interesting that his Spotlight auto is a redemption, would be interesting if he signed those in person with Panini.

Another thing that is interesting is that aside from the computer mock ups of his cards, they now very rarely show any of Luka's signed cards in any of their new release previews and haven't done so for some time.

Even today's Fathers Day Post showing a large number of autos available there is no Luka auto to be seen. Every other top rookie/player is shown.

[KhalDrogo]

Panini could resolve this with a video of him signing Lulu style autos. I don’t ever expect we will see that.