Topps out---Fanatics in

[The Accountant]

Topps will likely... at a minimum sell the MLB license to Fanatics right?

[Middies31985]

A Topps or Panini acquisition has to take place. I think the Topps brand could win out in the end. Fanatics doesn't need both Panini and Topps. The Topps Flagship, Topps Chrome, and Bowman Chrome products being in all major sports could carry whatever plans they have. I imagine they will make their own products as well, but even if they have Topps or Panini working for them I full expect that stupid Fanatics logo on every card.

[trendy26]

Does Fanatics make cards right now?

[Cardboardalstar]

Originally Posted by trendy26

Does Fanatics make cards right now?

I read that they don't make cards.

[thenightman]

Welp, it looks like my Topps run will actually have an end point.

[Cam Brady]

Originally Posted by Tallguy1991

See my post above this. Outbidding isn’t the issue, intentionally acting to kneecap all competition and establish monolithic control, in effect monopolizing a huge industry, is the issue though and it’s in violation of antitrust laws


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Yes but thats the same argument that could have been made by any company in any sport since Topps and MLB started the whole league exclusive deals.

All Topps, Panini, UD did with their exclusive deal was drive up the price of future deals on themselves. They never imagined that someday, somebody with deeper pockets would come in and overpay by a factor of 10.

But lets say you are right and Topps sues and somehow wins an anti trust case. They just cost MLB and MLBPA a bunch of money; do you think MLB and MLBPA are going to run right out and sign a new agreement with Topps?

Sure the government could get involved and break up a deal but they can't force any of the leagues or players unions into a deal with any specific manufacturer.

[THE(NEXT)LEVEL]

Damn! There goes their Heritage 1975 set I was waiting on!

[xbignick]

Originally Posted by Cam Brady

Topps was originally valued at $1 billion.

With confections roughly 30% of Topps an no material change to its operations one would think they are worth $300 million to somebody.

That leaves Topps intellectual property and physical property (corporate offices used to be prime downtown NY real estate pre covid) at $200 million based on a $500 million MUDS valuation.

If they go forward with going public 1 of 2 things most likely happen:

1. A candy company buys them and they sell rights to Fanatics. Its a market of 1 who can actually use the intellectual property.

2. Fanatics buys them and sells the confections division.

A 3rd possible but improbable:

A third party buys the rights and is willing to just sit on them hoping to sell them for more later. Big risk since there is just 1 bidder who the rights are actually meaningful

Originally Posted by mfw13

Pros: none

Cons: have zero experience producing sports cards, have zero access to Topps' intellectual property

However, as others have noted, Fanatics could easily buy Topps, lock, stock, and barrel.

MUDS is currently valued at around $500 million.

Fanatics is currently valued at around $18 billion.

To be clear the the Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corp. II SPAC merger gave Topps a ~1.6B valuation.

[Akphillips86]

I don’t ultimately know what the fallout of this will be years from now, especially for future wax and cards of players that haven’t cracked the bigs yet,but I don’t think it has a negative effect at all on existing licensed Topps cards. See Topps Chrome and UD Exquisite in basketball pre-Panini.

People will always be far more invested in whatever was licensed at the time it was printed. If anything, current Topps cards will appreciate more due to many collectors refusing to pay big money for Fanatics stuff and not moving their dollars past the massive Topps era.

I’m a singles collector that never rips wax so I’m kind of shrugging my shoulders at the moment. I don’t foresee a seismic shift in my buying habits other than maybe largely ignoring prospects that will break in after Topps loses its license and sticking to the players I currently collect.

One thing I wouldn’t mind seeing are some creative rare chase inserts. Maybe another manufacturer could pull this off. Topps is absolutely horrendous in this department. It’s impossible to know all the ramifications of this move with the limited perspective we have right now.


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[Cs2220]

Has the deal Trout has with Topps been mentioned. It’s supposed To be a ”lifetime” deal right? Are Trout autos gonna become like MJ and Lebron

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Middies31985

A Topps or Panini acquisition has to take place. I think the Topps brand could win out in the end. Fanatics doesn't need both Panini and Topps. The Topps Flagship, Topps Chrome, and Bowman Chrome products being in all major sports could carry whatever plans they have. I imagine they will make their own products as well, but even if they have Topps or Panini working for them I full expect that stupid Fanatics logo on every card.

Panini is already working with Fanatics. They've done exclusives. They already have the people in place to cover 3 sports. Topps will have been out of the football for 10 years when that deal happens, with the new group in the hobby, Prizm and Select are the names. I would think Panini as a whole would be able to throw more money at Fanatics to the their partner. Topps is the name for baseball, but that's it now

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by xbignick

To be clear the the deal the Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corp. II SPAC merger gave Topps a ~1.6B valuation.

Thanks for the info.

Still small enough that Fanatics could easier buy them outright if they so choose...

[Giancarlo27]

Originally Posted by Tallguy1991

Exactly. It looks like fanatics in collaboration with the leagues and unions worked to make a deal specifically to establish sole control of licensed cards from top to bottom, and when you consider they basically already controlled the team gear and game used businesses as well you get a situation unparalleled thus far in the history of the hobby. They literally acted with the intention of kneecapping all competition in multi billion dollar industry and that is a violation of antitrust laws. Plus, judges, federal legislators and the public have a track record of siding with beloved historical brands like topps. There’s inevitably going to be members of the senate or congress that don’t like this, and if they got involved with steroids they’ll happily step in here too. Having Josh luber controlling the sole licensed trading card entity would be the end of the hobby going forward for the vast majority of us


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Conspiracies in restraint of trade (which would be a Sherman Act Section 1 antitrust violation) are generally only deemed illegal if they have anticompetitive effects that are not outweighed by any procompetitive benefits (and where there is no less restrictive alternative available to the parties). I think it is absolutely not as clear cut as you make it out to be that Fanatics buying the licenses in the three leagues violates that test. In fact, the history of exclusive deals in the trading card industry directly suggests otherwise

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Panini is already working with Fanatics. They've done exclusives. They already have the people in place to cover 3 sports. Topps will have been out of the football for 10 years when that deal happens, with the new group in the hobby, Prizm and Select are the names. I would think Panini as a whole would be able to throw more money at Fanatics to the their partner. Topps is the name for baseball, but that's it now

But Panini doesn't have the history in any sport other than soccer.

There's no Panini Heritage or Panini Archives...just a few Donruss-themed NBA and NFL products with designs from the 80's.

So Topps intellectual property is much more valuable in the baseball card realm than Panini's.

[pjrussell]

Fanatics can't make a t-shirt that doesn't fade after 3 washes how are they going to make a quality trading card?

[base set]

Originally Posted by THE(NEXT)LEVEL

Damn! There goes there Heritage 1975 set I was waiting on!

That was my instant conclusion as well.

[Glowbug27]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Thanks for the info.

Still small enough that Fanatics could easier buy them outright if they so choose...

Buy them for what exactly, to get a confection business that they have no interest of being involved in? They are getting everything else of value with the exclusivity deals they worked out with MLB and MLBPA. If fanatics is so inclined they may choose to work a licensing arrangement with Topps and Panini further down the road to use the product names of the various brands, Chrome, Select, in the same way that Upper Deck bought the Fleer name and Panini bought Donruss, Playoff etc.

[actionbryan]

I would just assume fanatics aquires the Topps brand and continues like normal. Your favorite heritage set will still be released one day. (Do you really care what ceo/board is running things behind the curtain?)

Panini I have no idea

Topps brand is too valuable to let turn to nothing in baseball cards .

[Cam Brady]

Originally Posted by Cs2220

Has the deal Trout has with Topps been mentioned. It’s supposed To be a ”lifetime” deal right? Are Trout autos gonna become like MJ and Lebron

Possibly. Active players would be able to still have cards under the union agreement but don't have sign autographs (ie Lebron has Panini cards but no autos).

Retired players control their own rights so it would all depend on the player and their deal

[Enryon]

Originally Posted by Middies31985

A Topps or Panini acquisition has to take place. I think the Topps brand could win out in the end. Fanatics doesn't need both Panini and Topps. The Topps Flagship, Topps Chrome, and Bowman Chrome products being in all major sports could carry whatever plans they have. I imagine they will make their own products as well, but even if they have Topps or Panini working for them I full expect that stupid Fanatics logo on every card.

Why does fanatics have to buy anybody? They already got what they wanted.

There is a market for the cards that they will make. Take a look at the boards here for all the proof you need. 98% of the releases posted here get instantly trashed by member of this community. During the release week those very same members who said the product was an "easy pass" are bragging about what they pulled from their boxes. Further proof can be found in the thread about Project 2020.

Baseball and Baseball cards existed before Topps and it will exist after Topps.

[Glowbug27]

Originally Posted by Giancarlo27

Conspiracies in restraint of trade (which would be a Sherman Act Section 1 antitrust violation) are generally only deemed illegal if they have anticompetitive effects that are not outweighed by any procompetitive benefits (and where there is no less restrictive alternative available to the parties). I think it is absolutely not as clear cut as you make it out to be that Fanatics buying the licenses in the three leagues violates that test. In fact, the history of exclusive deals in the trading card industry directly suggests otherwise

I agree with the above, and again, not being a lawyer, but I think there is zero chance any court is going to strike down these agreements 1) because the product, collectible, is not a necessity 2) one could argue that there are benefits to having a single producer and 3) there was economic benefit not just to Fanatics from doing this but to three player unions and sports leagues as well.

[Cam Brady]

Originally Posted by pjrussell

Fanatics can't make a t-shirt that doesn't fade after 3 washes how are they going to make a quality trading card?

Think there are only 1 or 2 printers in the US that actually make trading cards. Im sure they will still be the ones printing the cards.

Highly unlikely that Fanatics are going to bring printing in house and if they did they would just buy one of the already existing companies instead of starting from scratch since printing trading cards is a niche market.

[Tallguy1991]

Originally Posted by Giancarlo27

Conspiracies in restraint of trade (which would be a Sherman Act Section 1 antitrust violation) are generally only deemed illegal if they have anticompetitive effects that are not outweighed by any procompetitive benefits (and where there is no less restrictive alternative available to the parties). I think it is absolutely not as clear cut as you make it out to be that Fanatics buying the licenses in the three leagues violates that test. In fact, the history of exclusive deals in the trading card industry directly suggests otherwise

What do you make of the success of fleer in 1980, when they sued topps for monopolistic behavior?

Edit: reviewing case now and topps was found to be in violation of a number of provisions of the Sherman antitrust act. Compare topps and their baseball gum/card business then to fanatics basically assuming control of retail merchandising top to bottom not just for MLB but the other members of big 3 in 2021. If topps was violating numerous provisions of Sherman in 1980 that would lead a reasonable person to conclude fanatics upon assuming the exclusive trading card licenses in coming years would certainly be just as much in violation as Topps was, if not significantly moreso


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[whitmm]

Originally Posted by mfw13

But Panini doesn't have the history in any sport other than soccer.

There's no Panini Heritage or Panini Archives...just a few Donruss-themed NBA and NFL products with designs from the 80's.

So Topps intellectual property is much more valuable in the baseball card realm than Panini's.

Do you think history matters? The hobby, especially outside of baseball, it filled with so much young money. Heritage is a set builder product and Archives isn't anything special. Two sets that recycle old set designs.

Fanatics is spending a ton of money to enter the market, I'm not sure they care about the history. They care about making money and what the current hot products are.

This is bigger than just baseball. This is the big 3. Panini has a global footprint. They were valued at $1.4b in 2018 and could be worth close to $3b now, from that same group that valued Topps. Panini has the current connections with the NFL, NBA, UFC, Disney, and Epic games, plus the soccer history.

[val47]

Ok boys, the golden era is over, welcome to the digital era. Is my understanding that Fanatics has acquired the NBA and the NFL as well