✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Missed another homer by inches. RBI double.

Homer, 2 doubles, BB. Pitches tomorrow

Damn it feels good to be a gangsta

[Rabs]

What are the chances he wins MVP again?

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by Rabs

What are the chances he wins MVP again?

Not great right now. Not as good as they should be, in my opinion - but there are so many AL guys having monster years, and I think you get a bit of "negative recency bias" in people not wanting to give it to someone back to back unless it's just not debatable...

[irfuji]

Originally Posted by zworykin

Not great right now. Not as good as they should be, in my opinion - but there are so many AL guys having monster years, and I think you get a bit of "negative recency bias" in people not wanting to give it to someone back to back unless it's just not debatable...

Objectively I think he's #2 behind Judge right now. Would agree with you 100% that winning last year makes it harder for him to win this year (not fair, but unfortunate reality).

That said, Judge is absolutely crushing it right now and Yankees are at the top of the AL East. Right or wrong, if two guys are killing it, how the team is doing typically acts as a tie breaker of sorts.

As much as I have bias for Ohtani, even I have to say if the voting happened today Judge should win.

But if Ohtani continues to have the season he is having and Angels start getting better as a team then I think it can be a straight coin flip. Trout is also the wildcard here. .285, 23hr's and 1.042 ops is nothing to sneeze at. I have to imagine if Angels win more he also probably picks it up too.

[BigSlim16]

Originally Posted by Rabs

What are the chances he wins MVP again?

Personally, I'd say he has about a 5-10% chance at the moment. There's just so many guys in the AL having monster years. But having said that, if Ohtani's bat stays hot I think his chances can increase pretty dramatically.

[dodgerfanjohn]

It’s a whole lot closer than you guys are representing.

I hate to say it but injuries will play a role.

Right now Ohtani is top 5 or 6 WAR in the AL and been heating up lately and no one’s running away with like a 1.1 OPS or anything. Judges homerun total tempered by other factors and there’s an argument that Devers or Ramirez are actually having better seasons.

We will see how Ohtani does on the mound tonight. He’s currently projected at 143 IP on the season and it would be VERY tough to deny mvp to a guy who goes say 12-8 with a decent era and 35 homeruns. But a lot of season still to play.

[zworykin]

To be fair, I should clarify that I misread the question as "odds" rather than "chances" - I think his chances are better than the current betting odds would suggest (at least the most recent odds that I saw, which if I remember correctly were something like Judge -100, Ohtani +350, Trout +550). That said, I still think he's got some uphill road ahead of him for the reasons indicated.

[imbluestreak23]

Fan dual has him at +260

Up from +350 last week

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Rabs

What are the chances he wins MVP again?

I think he would be the front runner if he wasn't on the Angels. He's at 3.6 WAR, only a half WAR back of the leaders. If he finished within a half WAR of anyone and kept that ERA under 3, I think he'd be a lock. But the Yankees are having a historically good year and if Judge stays ahead of him in WAR, the "best player on the best team" thing would probably steal enough votes away from Ohtani.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I think he would be the front runner if he wasn't on the Angels. He's at 3.6 WAR, only a half WAR back of the leaders. If he finished within a half WAR of anyone and kept that ERA under 3, I think he'd be a lock. But the Yankees are having a historically good year and if Judge stays ahead of him in WAR, the "best player on the best team" thing would probably steal enough votes away from Ohtani.

Sho also has Trout that will split some of the vote away from him this year. I think it's #99's to lose with the run the Yankees are putting together, but Sho continues to impress and inspire with his awesomeness.

It would be a really interesting conversation with Trout and Ohtani if the Angels were in first place, but it seems as though hell will freeze over before that ever happens.

[hammertime]

I'd agree Judge has to be the favorite right now and there are a handful of people in the mix, but there's a lot of season left...should be fun to watch.

[Trueblue]

The correct answer is the winner is whoever stays healthy through summer. Both guys are not exactly a pristine model of health.

If both stay healthy, by lazy math, assuming today is halfway point in the season, Judge has 58 Homers on .290 avg and 1.001 OPS and Ohtani has 34 with .268 avg and .862 OPS. The question is really whether a 135ish IP at 2.90era/1.01whip with 180Ks and 12 wins can make up for the difference. I'm not a statistician but when you put it like that, it looks way closer than people are making it out to be.

Always cracks me up when I hear yankee homers saying something like "Ohtani would only win since he also pitches." Are they listening to themselves? Sh*t ain't easy and if Aaron Judge was even a middle reliever, he would be reveled as a demi-God in NY. There is a lot of bias both ways, but the eastcoast has been on the losing end of that bias in 2018 and 2021. I'm not saying it happens again this year, but practical food for thought.

[seanrs1]

Assuming Ohtani stays relatively healthy the rest of the year and his 2nd half performance is similar to the first half...are most people thinking his prices will stay relatively flat in this current market? This is my current assumption unless Ohtani becomes the leader for MVP this year.

Anyone have any short or long term predictions on Ohtani pricing?

I am wondering if people on this thread are buying currently or selling.

I am always buying when I see something I like!

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Assuming Ohtani stays relatively healthy the rest of the year and his 2nd half performance is similar to the first half...are most people thinking his prices will stay relatively flat in this current market? This is my current assumption unless Ohtani becomes the leader for MVP this year.

Anyone have any short or long term predictions on Ohtani pricing?

I am wondering if people on this thread are buying currently or selling.

I am always buying when I see something I like!

I'm still buying clean raw, but like everything else, that's getting harder to find.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I'm still buying clean raw, but like everything else, that's getting harder to find.

How do you buy clean raw? Buying raw on ebay is easy, but judging how clean a card is very difficult until you have in hand. Do you just return every cards that is not a 10 in your opinion?

[majestik101]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do you just return every cards that is not a 10 in your opinion?

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

How do you buy clean raw? Buying raw on ebay is easy, but judging how clean a card is very difficult until you have in hand. Do you just return every cards that is not a 10 in your opinion?

Absolutely! lol

But no, trying to be wise about what sets to go after/avoid condition sensitive ones/avoid cards that have been chased for 4-5 years (speaking of ohtani), go after lesser known/pumped cards more likely to be clean. Vet sellers, all the common sense stuff.

[sakibomb523]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Assuming Ohtani stays relatively healthy the rest of the year and his 2nd half performance is similar to the first half...are most people thinking his prices will stay relatively flat in this current market? This is my current assumption unless Ohtani becomes the leader for MVP this year.

Anyone have any short or long term predictions on Ohtani pricing?

I am wondering if people on this thread are buying currently or selling.

I am always buying when I see something I like!

Auto prices have definitely went down in the last couple weeks. Snagged some good ones that were selling for around $400-500 last season in the the 250-300 range. Not sure if that's just cause the whole market is down in general or if his prices are falling. Some guy in an Ohtani facebook ground has posted a ton of good autos in the 500-600 range that have zero bites.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by sakibomb523

Auto prices have definitely went down in the last couple weeks. Snagged some good ones that were selling for around $400-500 last season in the the 250-300 range. Not sure if that's just cause the whole market is down in general or if his prices are falling. Some guy in an Ohtani facebook ground has posted a ton of good autos in the 500-600 range that have zero bites.

Autos in general? I only look at the licensed RC Auto market and that pricing has not moved and only 4-6 pop up per week now..

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

How do you buy clean raw? Buying raw on ebay is easy, but judging how clean a card is very difficult until you have in hand. Do you just return every cards that is not a 10 in your opinion?

Don't buy anything expensive from 2018 and expect it to gem unless it's base or the seller lives under a rock. For the latter, I would be sure that's the case.

[majestik101]

Looks like my 2020 Five Star "Five Tool" Auto /25 has actually gone up. Last comp sold for $850 a few days ago. Prior to that, one sold in October 2021 for $500. So that's a good sign. I guess it depends on the product.

[BC Hunt]

I've heard plenty of stories of folks buying raw from ebay, blowout, twitter, etc. and getting 10's.

Just ask for more pics if the condition isn't clear in the posting. Never assume 10, but it's certainly possible. Not everyone subs every single clean card.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Absolutely! lol

But no, trying to be wise about what sets to go after/avoid condition sensitive ones/avoid cards that have been chased for 4-5 years (speaking of ohtani), go after lesser known/pumped cards more likely to be clean. Vet sellers, all the common sense stuff.

I was sort of being facetious with the whole return thing...I mainly buy raw on ebay and I would say maybe 20% or less of the cards I buy are "clean/PSA10 potential." I think most would fall in the PSA9 (and PSA8) range and every once in awhile you see something pretty egregious that is not disclosed.

But I like your strategy of buying cards that have a higher gem rate or that aren't as popular/picked over.

My strategy is just to buy when its a good deal...if its not clean...no big deal if purchased below current comps! It also seems to me that the consignment cards are in worse shape than most individual sellers.

In the low to mid end market I follow...the market is way off last years high...but the past few weeks have been trending up.

I also am planning on being a long term holder of Ohtani cards (because he is fun to collect and unique and in my opinion under valued across the board).

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BC Hunt

I've heard plenty of stories of folks buying raw from ebay, blowout, twitter, etc. and getting 10's.

Just ask for more pics if the condition isn't clear in the posting. Never assume 10, but it's certainly possible. Not everyone subs every single clean card.

Oh it for sure happens. I bought a BCA on ebay from a well known consignor and got a PSA 10/10 auto earlier this year for an ugly upcharge.

The gem rate is just significantly lower than it was even last year. That happens naturally with time but primarily due to the fact it's Ohtani. In 2018, about half the raw I bought was gem-range. In 2020, about 40%..ish? Now if it's a main-set card like Heritage, Bowman, TC, Flagship parallel, it's like 10% at best even with clean looking pictures. There's always a dented backcorner not shown in the lighting, a finger nail/divot mark, or something. I am not a large sample size, but I do buy a lot and this has been my experinence.

[BC Hunt]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Oh it for sure happens. I bought a BCA on ebay from a well known consignor and got a PSA 10/10 auto earlier this year for an ugly upcharge.

The gem rate is just significantly lower than it was even last year. That happens naturally with time but primarily due to the fact it's Ohtani. In 2018, about half the raw I bought was gem-range. In 2020, about 40%..ish? Now if it's a main-set card like Heritage, Bowman, TC, Flagship parallel, it's like 10% at best even with clean looking pictures. There's always a dented backcorner not shown in the lighting, a finger nail/divot mark, or something. I am not a large sample size, but I do buy a lot and this has been my experinence.

Yep that makes sense.

In the case where damage wasn't shown in photo and not listed in description, no issue with returning those.

In general when buying raw, assume 8 and be pleased with 9 or 10.