2016 bowman pricing predictions

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I noticed something interesting this morning while sorting through my non-auto stuff. The Chrome Prospect Refractors all seem to have been packed out together in certain runs of cases. I only opened 6 total cases and yet have 4-5 copies of most players (that I pulled). When you figure they are #'d /499 and fall in all SKUs, I shouldn't have 4-5 of each in a small case break. Something is definitely off there and could affect resale values if certain players aren't getting pulled because they run together.

Makes ya think...is there a run of Moncada autos out there somewhere?

odd, mine have been nothing like that, in fact I made a refractor set minus 4 cards so far and have yet to see a triple, only 1 or 2 copies of each card

runs like that do occur, but often they are corrected

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by Links242

Still have not seen any Moncada Ref auto. Anyone? and so little copies FS on the bay.

nope, but being at least somewhat sp base, I didn't expect we would see one
also no ref /499 autos of maeda, rodgers, cameron, or swanson

all 5 guys who I initially said were running shorter than others in base

I stopped tracking but around 70 cases from me and a few other breakers I talk with, we hit the least of these guys by far, not even close when comparing hitting many others base some 20-25 times

[dasiegel]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Topps gave Moncada a second prospect auto in Bowman Chrome later this year. Not at all. It's been their pattern to repeat the best selling prospect autos. Buyer beware.

(Just a hunch, nothing based in fact.)

Nothing based in fact but experience tells me your thought process is spot on. If this guy is hot they will milk the crap out of it.

Originally Posted by MallcopKJ

2016 Bowman Chrome Yoan Moncada Full Size Orange Shimmer Refractor Auto 9 10 RC | eBay

Wow this is pretty. What do you guys think this could bring??

Nothing near the asking price lol. I wouldn't pay 7k for his super. (edited: to reflect values today, not saying one day i couldn't look back and regret it down the road)

[zacsoccer6]

Shimmer will go for less than an orange most likely, have an orange auto of cotton and I have been offered more than a orange shimmer is listed at BIN.

[MallcopKJ]

You guys think the Moncada Orange Shimmer /10 Auto is worth $3,000?

[dasiegel]

Originally Posted by MallcopKJ

You guys think the Moncada Orange Shimmer /10 Auto is worth $3,000?

no because no and no because odd parallels don't hold long term value

[zacsoccer6]

Originally Posted by MallcopKJ

You guys think the Moncada Orange Shimmer /10 Auto is worth $3,000?

I would guess around the price of a gold maybe a little less so between 1500-2000. I would rather have the gold but I don't like the look of the shimmers.

[pensfan87893]

Just pulled a Victor Robles auto...should I hold or sell?

[dasiegel]

Originally Posted by pensfan87893

Just pulled a Victor Robles auto...should I hold or sell?

sell then buy again in a month

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by dasiegel

sell then buy again in a month

There going to be selling for 40 bucks by the end of the night I think something like 7 auctions going off tonight. Woof.

[brentandbecca]

Well so far the auto checklist has proved to be outstanding as projected
While I do still miss the ice parallels and minis, the early prices have been super strong IMO
I appreciate this thread with estimates as helps me gauge top players and the interest levels I especially like seeing each player graded out like some members have done as I just don't follow the prospects near like I should

Price prediction has just become so difficult and that is one reason I like to run some auctions vs. fixed, but did a mix so far this year
I just was reading thru all the pricing predictions on the first pages to set some fixed priced yesterday since not too many actual sales yet
I had told a couple breakers last week, that whatever the predictions are you can usually expect them to be quite a bit higher, the first days especially
I don't know if some predictions are based off what they will be later on or what they are willing to pay, but it is so tough to gauge IMO, reading these threads each year; and with SP, etc, that makes it near impossible
I think most prices (non-SP) will stabilize tonight/tomorrow to some of the predicted levels

[zacsoccer6]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

Well so far the auto checklist has proved to be outstanding as projected
While I do still miss the ice parallels and minis, the early prices have been super strong IMO
I appreciate this thread with estimates as helps me gauge top players and the interest levels I especially like seeing each player graded out like some members have done as I just don't follow the prospects near like I should

Price prediction has just become so difficult and that is one reason I like to run some auctions vs. fixed, but did a mix so far this year
I just was reading thru all the pricing predictions on the first pages to set some fixed priced yesterday since not too many actual sales yet
I had told a couple breakers last week, that whatever the predictions are you can usually expect them to be quite a bit higher, the first days especially
I don't know if some predictions are based off what they will be later on or what they are willing to pay, but it is so tough to gauge IMO, reading these threads each year; and with SP, etc, that makes it near impossible
I think most prices (non-SP) will stabilize tonight/tomorrow to some of the predicted levels

I was shocked I sold a base swanson auto for 130, SP or not that is more than his first auto's base go for.

[bulljh]

Is it fair to say that this is the best Bowman product ever?

[Rufusyo]

I should have listed last night. To busy slowly enjoying my break.

[zacsoccer6]

Originally Posted by Rufusyo

I should have listed last night. To busy slowly enjoying my break.

Most of my stuff that sold today has been selling at similar prices to day 1 sales.

[messier2]

Is anyone (like me) staying on the sidelines from buying singles at this moment? Most, if not all, will come down in price as the hype dies down. I'm buying guys from 2015 BDP at a fraction of what they sold for when the product first came out.

Also, I heard the case that you are more likely to find nicer condition copies since many are "rip and dump" guys and don't grade. But, I've had a great luck finding nice conditioned cards later in the product cycle. People are ripping Bowman products all year long.

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by bulljh

Is it fair to say that this is the best Bowman product ever?

I can't speak for the overall prospect group or grades
But I would say a few things...
Auto checklist is very very strong, one of the best IMO
yet still I can't say it will be in my top 3 for the past 8 years

It's early, have to see how high cases get, some may have forgotten how crazy 2010-2012 were
I mean base chrome Strasburg cards were $25-$30 each and bgs 9.5 were $150-$200 for a short while
Strasburg autos were unreal, then came Harper
granted, the overall checklists may not have been as solid, but the value from everything on those huge cards was there...I mean the top non-auto base chromes are lucky to get $2-$3 these days, all the smalls sold better as there were not any non-auto base & color chromes of the auto guys and vice versa
I also noticed this year that the chrome prospects seemed to have the fewest 1st Bowman cards ever. I can't recall so few, I miss the days where most all were, although some repeats are not all bad
For me, I don't see this getting anywhere near my results from 2010-2012

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by messier2

Is anyone (like me) staying on the sidelines from buying singles at this moment? Most, if not all, will come down in price as the hype dies down. I'm buying guys from 2015 BDP at a fraction of what they sold for when the product first came out.

Also, I heard the case that you are more likely to find nicer condition copies since many are "rip and dump" guys and don't grade. But, I've had a great luck finding nice conditioned cards later in the product cycle. People are ripping Bowman products all year long.

I'm sure several are, but also appears several are not, seeing that prices are so high
having the 50/100-caser break not happen be one ripple effect to the higher prices, don't know
also seeing just how high chrome autos have gotten lately for guys not named Trout (like story, syndergaard, harper, etc) could also be another ripple

[Eckstein197]

How has this been looking? Breaks have been looking good and man those orange shimmer autos look good.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

I'm sure several are, but also appears several are not, seeing that prices are so high
having the 50/100-caser break not happen be one ripple effect to the higher prices, don't know
also seeing just how high chrome autos have gotten lately for guys not named Trout (like story, syndergaard, harper, etc) could also be another ripple

Bingo

[Soxrule111]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

How has this been looking? Breaks have been looking good and man those orange shimmer autos look good.

Been looking pretty solid IMO, but still a risk. You could hit a Maeda Redemption, Blue Sano, Gold Sano, Espinoza Refractor, Schwarber Auto, and 5 commons and still lose on a case. The results look good, but still come up short.

[zacsoccer6]

Originally Posted by Soxrule111

Been looking pretty solid IMO, but still a risk. You could hit a Maeda Redemption, Blue Sano, Gold Sano, Espinoza Refractor, Schwarber Auto, and 5 commons and still lose on a case. The results look good, but still come up short.

Don't think that case would lose, my case best card was a orange of a lower tier and a swanson base auto and i'm going to break even or be slightly ahead.

[MallcopKJ]

Would the red shimmer refractor autos /10 be worth more than the orange numbered to the same just because red is usually better to pull?

[dasiegel]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

Well so far the auto checklist has proved to be outstanding as projected
While I do still miss the ice parallels and minis, the early prices have been super strong IMO
I appreciate this thread with estimates as helps me gauge top players and the interest levels I especially like seeing each player graded out like some members have done as I just don't follow the prospects near like I should

Price prediction has just become so difficult and that is one reason I like to run some auctions vs. fixed, but did a mix so far this year
I just was reading thru all the pricing predictions on the first pages to set some fixed priced yesterday since not too many actual sales yet
I had told a couple breakers last week, that whatever the predictions are you can usually expect them to be quite a bit higher, the first days especially
I don't know if some predictions are based off what they will be later on or what they are willing to pay, but it is so tough to gauge IMO, reading these threads each year; and with SP, etc, that makes it near impossible
I think most prices (non-SP) will stabilize tonight/tomorrow to some of the predicted levels

Totally understand as a guy who opens a lot why you feel like you do, but man as a low volume seller I hate when I see early auctions. I'm like what are you doing lol!? Example, if I had pulled a Moncada and all the BINs were $275-300 and then some dumb seller sells one BIN for $200 and an auction is going off, it could end for $185, meaning one dumb seller and the guy who ran the auction on an SP card just knocked the price down for everyone, at least short term when the product is hottest.

This has been a good product so far it seems although many people on here are complaining about soft offers.

This is the first time in a long time I bought zero wax of a Bowman product but I just saw prices so high I wanted to watch how this plays out first.

[hairysasquatch]

Had time to sneak in one of my Jumbo cases today - notables were Seager Blue /150 Auto and Refractor /499 Auto, Robles Blue Auto, Moncada Base Auto, and a redemption for Rookie Recollections Pat Hentgen Auto

Solid - rest of color was decent but not huge names.