**The Perennial MIKE TROUT Thread**

[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by Rabs

I'm a huge Trout fan. He will have 3 MVPs after this year. I hope he stays healthy his entire career.

We all hope his career does not go the Pujols route in terms of his body.

I'm sure many of us will move some stuff before that happens. I'm not holding everything for life. I'll move 2 Updates in a few years.... no reason to even consider it now.

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by baseballbunez

He missed a good amount of games in 2018 due to a death in his family. Sure ultimately those are missed games, but not exactly worthy of an "injury shortened season" designation.

FWIW he missed 6-8 weeks in 2017 with a freak injury to his thumb from sliding. Contact injuries like that aren't nearly as concerning in the long run, and shouldn't be lumped in with non-contact injuries imo.

[dmanrico]

Maybe I like Trout too much, but I consider him the Jordan equivalent in the baseball card world. I’ve never followed Jordan’s cards. Curious if anyone could tell me how Jordan’s cards fared post retirement? Did they decline in value? And I’m really talking about card values excluding his most famous ones (86 Fleer, 97 Metal).

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by dmanrico

Maybe I like Trout too much, but I consider him the Jordan equivalent in the baseball card world. I’ve never followed Jordan’s cards. Curious if anyone could tell me how Jordan’s cards fared post retirement? Did they decline in value? And I’m really talking about card values excluding his most famous ones (86 Fleer, 97 Metal).

They all went up. A lot.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by dmanrico

Maybe I like Trout too much, but I consider him the Jordan equivalent in the baseball card world. I’ve never followed Jordan’s cards. Curious if anyone could tell me how Jordan’s cards fared post retirement? Did they decline in value? And I’m really talking about card values excluding his most famous ones (86 Fleer, 97 Metal).

They cant make any more Jordan NBA cards though since he is part owner of Upper Deck. So his supply is fixed and demand is growing.
The big difference between Jordan and Trout is the postseason. Jordan was kind of the playoffs, Trout cant even qualify.



Trout with the PH IBB, then pulled for a PR.

[DaRitz]

Originally Posted by dmanrico

Maybe I like Trout too much, but I consider him the Jordan equivalent in the baseball card world. I’ve never followed Jordan’s cards. Curious if anyone could tell me how Jordan’s cards fared post retirement? Did they decline in value? And I’m really talking about card values excluding his most famous ones (86 Fleer, 97 Metal).

I traded two $50 Jordans for a 1989 Upper Deck baseball set in 1992 or so.

I'd need a HELOC to trade back today.

Granted, it's not "post-retirement" as you've asked. But when you're on the short list for "best ever" I'm not sure we ever know the peak.

[mouschi]

Ha, yeah - PH-IBB-PR

So, in 5 years, where do you all see the US175 Diamond? Still increasing, leveling off, or decreasing? It has jumped quite a bit this year.

[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by mouschi

Ha, yeah - PH-IBB-PR

So, in 5 years, where do you all see the US175 Diamond? Still increasing, leveling off, or decreasing? It has jumped quite a bit this year.

If he continues to play like he did this season... stay healthy... no reason for it to go down

[DaRitz]

Originally Posted by anusinha

They cant make any more Jordan NBA cards though since he is part owner of Upper Deck. So his supply is fixed and demand is growing.

Originally Posted by mouschi

So, in 5 years, where do you all see the US175 Diamond? Still increasing, leveling off, or decreasing? It has jumped quite a bit this year.

I have a "market cap" theory about baseball cards. It's that if you could theoretically add up the value of all cards ever made of any player, you'd have a market cap number that reflects their collectible interest.

Since I don't know the print runs of most cards, I just used PSA and BGS POP reports, multiplied by the average of the last few cards sold of each grader/grade.

I quickly realized that everything outside of rookie cards was a rounding error. As in... add up all 2012 Trout cards and it barely budges his "market cap" number compared to the total of 2011 cards.

So then I just went with rookie cards to give me a VERY rough estimate of the market cap of some big-time collectible players.

This was done last year... and without price-checking the data, I think Trout has seen the only movement (up).

But here's where it stood, maybe a year ago:

1993 SP Derek Jeter: $10.089m market cap ('93 UD was only $289k and ignored)

1968 Topps Nolan Ryan: $9.000m market cap

1989 Upper Deck Griffey: $7.437m market cap.

2011 Topps Update Trout w/ parallels: $6.448m market cap.

So Trout has many more cards, and he has more cards made every year than Mickey Mantle had in his career. But they all end up being a rounding error in total player value - though I'd love to try to calculate it sometime. It's like the retired players cards that are made today... they're worth a couple bucks each.

I purposefully excluded Mickey Mantle from the study because it's hard to quantify the "current value" of his RCs and at some point it doesn't matter since he'll be the most collectible for all-time, most likely.

But I tried to pick the most collectible player in 4 different eras and it ended up supporting my theory pretty well.

All that to say... where do you think Trout ends in all-time collectible? Above Griffey? Above Ryan? Above Jeter? The comp to Jeter is most interesting to me as Jeter never really had great seasons but he was the captain of a team that just kept winning the WS. That, compared to Trout who will likely end his career with his worst season better than Jeter's best, but might end up in the same ballpark in the collector's mind.

It's really time-consuming to look up the POP reports and then the recent sales for each grade of PSA and BGS card, so I didn't expand the research very far. But I saw enough to have my (biased) gut feeling confirmed. And I think Trout ends up above Griffey and Nolan Ryan and probably Jeter... If I re-ran the numbers today, I'd assume he crossed Griffey, and maybe the others.

But no matter where he ends up, it will be an all time "what if" debate with Trout... If he was with the Yankees, he might have challenged Mantle for the most collectible cards. He might do it anyway, but it will be tough.

If there is a player or two that should be compared, I could break out all of those Excel spreadsheets just to compare. But I've been encouraged overall with the "market cap" theory and I think Trout only has room on the upside. It's just too bad no one (relatively speaking) ever got to see him play.

[ThoseBackPages]

can we get a TLDR?

[moosetequila]

Wall....

[mouschi]

Originally Posted by DaRitz

I have a "market cap" theory about baseball cards. It's that if you could theoretically add up the value of all cards ever made of any player, you'd have a market cap number that reflects their collectible interest.

Since I don't know the print runs of most cards, I just used PSA and BGS POP reports, multiplied by the average of the last few cards sold of each grader/grade.

I quickly realized that everything outside of rookie cards was a rounding error. As in... add up all 2012 Trout cards and it barely budges his "market cap" number compared to the total of 2011 cards.

So then I just went with rookie cards to give me a VERY rough estimate of the market cap of some big-time collectible players.

This was done last year... and without price-checking the data, I think Trout has seen the only movement (up).

But here's where it stood, maybe a year ago:

1993 SP Derek Jeter: $10.089m market cap ('93 UD was only $289k and ignored)

1968 Topps Nolan Ryan: $9.000m market cap

1989 Upper Deck Griffey: $7.437m market cap.

2011 Topps Update Trout w/ parallels: $6.448m market cap.

So Trout has many more cards, and he has more cards made every year than Mickey Mantle had in his career. But they all end up being a rounding error in total player value - though I'd love to try to calculate it sometime. It's like the retired players cards that are made today... they're worth a couple bucks each.

I purposefully excluded Mickey Mantle from the study because it's hard to quantify the "current value" of his RCs and at some point it doesn't matter since he'll be the most collectible for all-time, most likely.

But I tried to pick the most collectible player in 4 different eras and it ended up supporting my theory pretty well.

All that to say... where do you think Trout ends in all-time collectible? Above Griffey? Above Ryan? Above Jeter? The comp to Jeter is most interesting to me as Jeter never really had great seasons but he was the captain of a team that just kept winning the WS. That, compared to Trout who will likely end his career with his worst season better than Jeter's best, but might end up in the same ballpark in the collector's mind.

It's really time-consuming to look up the POP reports and then the recent sales for each grade of PSA and BGS card, so I didn't expand the research very far. But I saw enough to have my (biased) gut feeling confirmed. And I think Trout ends up above Griffey and Nolan Ryan and probably Jeter... If I re-ran the numbers today, I'd assume he crossed Griffey, and maybe the others.

But no matter where he ends up, it will be an all time "what if" debate with Trout... If he was with the Yankees, he might have challenged Mantle for the most collectible cards. He might do it anyway, but it will be tough.

If there is a player or two that should be compared, I could break out all of those Excel spreadsheets just to compare. But I've been encouraged overall with the "market cap" theory and I think Trout only has room on the upside. It's just too bad no one (relatively speaking) ever got to see him play.

Good stuff! Very interesting.

[REGGIE206]

Looks like Mike Trout is in the lineup today

[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by REGGIE206

Looks like Mike Trout is in the lineup today

Hip hip - HOORAY!!!!!!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by REGGIE206

Looks like Mike Trout is in the lineup today

in CF!

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

can we get a TLDR?

Its a somewhat interesting read. I think Trouts rookie market cap probably ends up in the same range as Jeter and above the other guys.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by anusinha

Its a somewhat interesting read. I think Trouts rookie market cap probably ends up in the same range as Jeter and above the other guys.

much like Jeter, there is no reason not to own one of each Trout Rookie Card

[Chrisyork33]

Originally Posted by REGGIE206

Looks like Mike Trout is in the lineup today

My man!!!

[here2havefun]

Originally Posted by DaRitz

I have a "market cap" theory about baseball cards. It's that if you could theoretically add up the value of all cards ever made of any player, you'd have a market cap number that reflects their collectible interest.

Since I don't know the print runs of most cards, I just used PSA and BGS POP reports, multiplied by the average of the last few cards sold of each grader/grade.

I quickly realized that everything outside of rookie cards was a rounding error. As in... add up all 2012 Trout cards and it barely budges his "market cap" number compared to the total of 2011 cards.

So then I just went with rookie cards to give me a VERY rough estimate of the market cap of some big-time collectible players.

This was done last year... and without price-checking the data, I think Trout has seen the only movement (up).

But here's where it stood, maybe a year ago:

1993 SP Derek Jeter: $10.089m market cap ('93 UD was only $289k and ignored)

1968 Topps Nolan Ryan: $9.000m market cap

1989 Upper Deck Griffey: $7.437m market cap.

2011 Topps Update Trout w/ parallels: $6.448m market cap.

So Trout has many more cards, and he has more cards made every year than Mickey Mantle had in his career. But they all end up being a rounding error in total player value - though I'd love to try to calculate it sometime. It's like the retired players cards that are made today... they're worth a couple bucks each.

I purposefully excluded Mickey Mantle from the study because it's hard to quantify the "current value" of his RCs and at some point it doesn't matter since he'll be the most collectible for all-time, most likely.

But I tried to pick the most collectible player in 4 different eras and it ended up supporting my theory pretty well.

All that to say... where do you think Trout ends in all-time collectible? Above Griffey? Above Ryan? Above Jeter? The comp to Jeter is most interesting to me as Jeter never really had great seasons but he was the captain of a team that just kept winning the WS. That, compared to Trout who will likely end his career with his worst season better than Jeter's best, but might end up in the same ballpark in the collector's mind.

It's really time-consuming to look up the POP reports and then the recent sales for each grade of PSA and BGS card, so I didn't expand the research very far. But I saw enough to have my (biased) gut feeling confirmed. And I think Trout ends up above Griffey and Nolan Ryan and probably Jeter... If I re-ran the numbers today, I'd assume he crossed Griffey, and maybe the others.

But no matter where he ends up, it will be an all time "what if" debate with Trout... If he was with the Yankees, he might have challenged Mantle for the most collectible cards. He might do it anyway, but it will be tough.

If there is a player or two that should be compared, I could break out all of those Excel spreadsheets just to compare. But I've been encouraged overall with the "market cap" theory and I think Trout only has room on the upside. It's just too bad no one (relatively speaking) ever got to see him play.

Shameless plug, but I wrote a tool for automating the process of collecting PSA auction prices from their website:
https://github.com/ChrisMuir/psa-scrape

[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

much like Jeter, there is no reason not to own one of each Trout Rookie Card

One of each as in one of the 7 Trout licensed RCs....or one of every parallel of all RCs?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

One of each as in one of the 7 Trout licensed RCs....or one of every parallel of all RCs?

Yes, Rookie Cards. (parallels and inserts, while "worth more" are not Rookie Cards)

i guess one could argue against that one /99 panini, as its /99

but other then that, no reason not to own his pack issued RCs

sure, they are costly NOW, but for years and years, they were not
(and one could argue they are "cheap" in 2019 vs what they could be in 2029)

[speedyjg13]

Hot off the press!!!!!!

Trout just pulled from the lineup!!!!!

[ThoseBackPages]

SELL!!!

:*****(

[jasonm2121]

20129 gonna be lit AF

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

20129 gonna be lit AF