The burlap is back! First Buzz: 2017 Topps Heritage baseball cards (will update)

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

I sold 2 direct to customers privately at release though

that's one thing that is not considered, and others who may have pulled one, may have kept it or sold locally
BUT I agree the blue are certainly more rare, just saying ebay isn't the complete picture

This right here. Moreso than any other release, a ton of this stuff never hits the airwaves. It's one of the rare times collectors will bust a case just for themselves.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by Tim

and you shouldn't be even reading these threads let alone buying heritage because you clearly don't understand why it's a money maker.

the reason 2017 TH is going to be so great is because for the FIRST time, it combines a strong checklist with hard-to-put-together master sets (due to SP and insert difficulty), with the usual bells and whistles it always has for case breakers. best of both worlds. rookies, autos, and breakers. That plus the increase in demand will shorten the supply of wax.

Why are we insistent on putting this blanket statement out there?

Every guy I see in here talking about ripping an quantity, ripped in quantity last year. Of course as with every product you lose a couple guys, and you gain a couple.

Does anyone have any real data to prove an increase in demand? No. Were saying there is an increase in demand because major retail outlets have raised there presell price.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Why are we insistent on putting this blanket statement out there?

Every guy I see in here talking about ripping an quantity, ripped in quantity last year. Of course as with every product you lose a couple guys, and you gain a couple.

Does anyone have any real data to prove an increase in demand? No. Were saying there is an increase in demand because major retail outlets have raised there presell price.

There's clearly an increase in demand. That's what pricing reflects. It doesn't make sense for a retailer to increase their price so they can sit on a product. That's simple economics.

But I can confirm (as others have) two distributors who sold out completely, sooner than they ever have.

[brentandbecca]

Every release there are sellers that copy my descriptions or checklists word for word, and forget to edit out my store policy's AND store name, haha
BUT this is too funny, never had someone use my picture without editing out my logo

2017 Topps Heritage Complete Base set 400 cards (1-400) Bryant Trout *PRESELL* | eBay


thankfully I had 2 folks from here, 3 on twitter and another 2 emails letting me know

update: item ended

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by Tim

and you shouldn't be even reading these threads let alone buying heritage because you clearly don't understand why it's a money maker.

the reason 2017 TH is going to be so great is because for the FIRST time, it combines a strong checklist with hard-to-put-together master sets (due to SP and insert difficulty), with the usual bells and whistles it always has for case breakers. best of both worlds. rookies, autos, and breakers. That plus the increase in demand will shorten the supply of wax.

OK, so tell me, what's a master set going to pull in? $500? Takes at least two cases, right?

So, at $1900 you get two cases. $500 back on your MAYBE master set brings you down to $1400. Say you get four junk autos and 20 crap relics (maybe 1-2 bring you $50 a piece because you hit a quad or something). That's another, what? $300? Now we're at $1100. You have 10ish base sets that should get your roughly $25 a piece IF you move them all, so there's another $250.

So you're left with dupe SPs, inserts, chrome, and variations and you're telling me there's $850 worth of product there? We agree to disagree.

I also disagree with your statement about the increased demand shortening the wax supply. By having these insanely high numbers out of the gate it causes an increase in supply due to the fact that everyone's asking price is way too high. If anything, it would decrease the supply of singles on the open market.

We'll find out who is right in the next few weeks.

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Why are we insistent on putting this blanket statement out there?

Every guy I see in here talking about ripping an quantity, ripped in quantity last year. Of course as with every product you lose a couple guys, and you gain a couple.

Does anyone have any real data to prove an increase in demand? No. Were saying there is an increase in demand because major retail outlets have raised there presell price.

I know that many distributors have sold not only are they sold out, but they sold out faster this year and keep getting calls
BUT I will say, once prices start climbing, the phones start ringing much more
no matter the product

folks speculate it on being a winner, or super hot as prices increase or checklist comes, so of course more demand which just leads to higher prices due to it being tougher to find

If Topps had made 1,000 more cases, they would have sold them, YES the product would have suffered due to the odds being crazier, but they still could have sold them

(also some distributors do have them and they are selling quick at higher than normal prices at this point)

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

OK, so tell me, what's a master set going to pull in? $500? Takes at least two cases, right?

So, at $1900 you get two cases. $500 back on your MAYBE master set brings you down to $1400. Say you get four junk autos and 20 crap relics (maybe 1-2 bring you $50 a piece because you hit a quad or something). That's another, what? $300? Now we're at $1100. You have 10ish base sets that should get your roughly $25 a piece IF you move them all, so there's another $250.

So you're left with dupe SPs, inserts, chrome, and variations and you're telling me there's $850 worth of product there? We agree to disagree.

I also disagree with your statement about the increased demand shortening the wax supply. By having these insanely high numbers out of the gate it causes an increase in supply due to the fact that everyone's asking price is way too high. If anything, it would decrease the supply of singles on the open market.

We'll find out who is right in the next few weeks.

at $1900, heck even $1700, I agree with you completely
I'm always surprised that some pay up, BUT some order too late and may just want to rip a case for fun regardless
not everyone resells, but your point is right on, if TH was at those prices pre-sell, even I would have to walk away!!

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

There's clearly an increase in demand. That's what pricing reflects. It doesn't make sense for a retailer to increase their price so they can sit on a product. That's simple economics.

But I can confirm (as others have) two distributors who sold out completely, sooner than they ever have.

Again thats pretty much a blanket statement. Simple economics actually tells you that there can be an aritificial market when two or more power contributors in one market increase or decrease in price at the same pace.

Example, look at the explosion of the Truck Market with Ford and Chevy.

Heritage was good last year, it was not all time great though. So what your telling me is a good product created such demand last year that were struggling to keep it on the shelves at 33% over last years pre-release price? To get that kind of price bump, that economics course would tell you there needs to be between a 40-50% increase in buyers. Not a chance, hobby isn't growing at a pace fast enough to support that number.

Im not trying to be negative here. It goes back to my post 10 pages or so back.....you can't be delusional about this.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

OK, so tell me, what's a master set going to pull in? $500? Takes at least two cases, right?

So, at $1900 you get two cases. $500 back on your MAYBE master set brings you down to $1400. Say you get four junk autos and 20 crap relics (maybe 1-2 bring you $50 a piece because you hit a quad or something). That's another, what? $300? Now we're at $1100. You have 10ish base sets that should get your roughly $25 a piece IF you move them all, so there's another $250.

So you're left with dupe SPs, inserts, chrome, and variations and you're telling me there's $850 worth of product there? We agree to disagree.

I also disagree with your statement about the increased demand shortening the wax supply. By having these insanely high numbers out of the gate it causes an increase in supply due to the fact that everyone's asking price is way too high. If anything, it would decrease the supply of singles on the open market.

We'll find out who is right in the next few weeks.

I've been breaking Heritage since 2001 - this isn't about who's right. But having said that, the big distinction here is I am NOT in at $950 nor am I suggesting that others will make money breaking it at $950.00. I am in at presell pricing. Plus you are providing a worst case scenario above - I am not going to get 10 cases' worth of common autographs. If you are talking about some poor dude buying two cases at $950 per case and opening, then your comments above are spot on.

Having said that, the prices are increasing because the product is selling. Not because of artificial hype. I am not talking about BO - talking about all my distribs plus ebay. Simple supply and demand here.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

at $1900, heck even $1700, I agree with you completely
I'm always surprised that some pay up, BUT some order too late and may just want to rip a case for fun regardless
not everyone resells, but your point is right on, if TH was at those prices pre-sell, even I would have to walk away!!

I was busy typing the same longer response while you were posting lol

[TarjetasBéisbol]

Every year it's the same thing, people bickering back and forth about the prices. Who cares at this point? Great if you bought in at a low price, let's just enjoy this product and forget about who is right and who is wrong. I for one will open my lone case and just like ever year I will keep most of what I break.

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

Every release there are sellers that copy my descriptions or checklists word for word, and forget to edit out my store policy's AND store name, haha
BUT this is too funny, never had someone use my picture without editing out my logo

2017 Topps Heritage Complete Base set 400 cards (1-400) Bryant Trout *PRESELL* | eBay


thankfully I had 2 folks from here, 3 on twitter and another 2 emails letting me know

update: item ended

That is just being lazy.

[rotoblueprint]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Again thats pretty much a blanket statement. Simple economics actually tells you that there can be an aritificial market when two or more power contributors in one market increase or decrease in price at the same pace.

Example, look at the explosion of the Truck Market with Ford and Chevy.

Heritage was good last year, it was not all time great though. So what your telling me is a good product created such demand last year that were struggling to keep it on the shelves at 33% over last years pre-release price? To get that kind of price bump, that economics course would tell you there needs to be between a 40-50% increase in buyers. Not a chance, hobby isn't growing at a pace fast enough to support that number.

Im not trying to be negative here. It goes back to my post 10 pages or so back.....you can't be delusional about this.

I don't think anyone is delusional between Brent's facts and a lot of well thought out comments...there has been some pretty good conversation around the product. What you seem to be doing is refuting everyone's statements by labeling them as "blanket." Your numbers not only fail to make economical sense, they fail to make math sense and are completely arbitrary.

No idea your vendetta against TH, other than the demand having driven the price up. The market ALWAYS dictates the end result, even if retailers overreact one direction or another. Why is '17 different?

[rutgersjpm]

I also think we're not giving this forum enough credit. The fact that we're on page 32 of this thread and we just got a checklist two days ago is mind boggling to me. I don't ever recall this happening to a product before.

It's funny, I've been doing this for a few years now and I become more and more skeptical of the things that are said in this forum. There are far too many people who have NO IDEA what they're talking about and simply type pointedly enough that you can't help but take notice. One of the biggest issues with the hobby is full of FOMO's. Google it if you don't know what that means. Those folks are the ones driving up prices. I'm sorry, but without knowing who the errors and variations are, there is no way to know whether or not this is going to be a good product. 2015 Heritage High lived off an excess of RC content. Sorry, but if Benny, Swanson, Moncada and crew don't have more content than just base and chrome, this product will CRUSH some folks.

[nephinfan]

The more posts I read in this thread, the happier I am that I will just be enjoying my cases. If I hit something big, great! If not, I'll purchase singles to complete my set if needed and call it good.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by rotoblueprint

I don't think anyone is delusional between Brent's facts and a lot of well thought out comments...there has been some pretty good conversation around the product. What you seem to be doing is refuting everyone's statements by labeling them as "blanket." Your numbers not only fail to make economical sense, they fail to make math sense and are completely arbitrary.

No idea your vendetta against TH, other than the demand having driven the price up. The market ALWAYS dictates the end result, even if retailers overreact one direction or another. Why is '17 different?

I think you would do well to google what a blanket statement is (which I said twice, to Skip, who I like and respect) and take an economics course (I can link you to an article or two to support those numbers, but I doubt it would make any additional sense to you).

Also my problem with TH? I love the product, I have cases locked in since November.

Thanks for the input though!

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Again thats pretty much a blanket statement. Simple economics actually tells you that there can be an aritificial market when two or more power contributors in one market increase or decrease in price at the same pace.

Example, look at the explosion of the Truck Market with Ford and Chevy.

Heritage was good last year, it was not all time great though. So what your telling me is a good product created such demand last year that were struggling to keep it on the shelves at 33% over last years pre-release price? To get that kind of price bump, that economics course would tell you there needs to be between a 40-50% increase in buyers. Not a chance, hobby isn't growing at a pace fast enough to support that number.

Im not trying to be negative here. It goes back to my post 10 pages or so back.....you can't be delusional about this.

Not a blanket statement. Distributors sold out. That's a fact. They sold out quicker than previous years. That's a fact.

Personally, I think this year's increased demand is simply a combination of the popularity of the Ryan RC and the strong checklist.

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by Tim

I've been breaking Heritage since 2001 - this isn't about who's right. But having said that, the big distinction here is I am NOT in at $950 nor am I suggesting that others will make money breaking it at $950.00. I am in at presell pricing. Plus you are providing a worst case scenario above - I am not going to get 10 cases' worth of common autographs. If you are talking about some poor dude buying two cases at $950 per case and opening, then your comments above are spot on.

Having said that, the prices are increasing because the product is selling. Not because of artificial hype. I am not talking about BO - talking about all my distribs plus ebay. Simple supply and demand here.

You quoted me. I specifically stated buying a case at $950 will be a problem. I wouldn't be surprised if it causes people to curse Topps and lose customers. Imagine hitting up the LCS and buying a box for $80 that gives you $20 worth of cards? Not good.

Full disclosure, I'm doing two cases and I locked in before the direct sales window closed. It should be a safe break for me.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

I also think we're not giving this forum enough credit. The fact that we're on page 32 of this thread and we just got a checklist two days ago is mind boggling to me. I don't ever recall this happening to a product before.

It's funny, I've been doing this for a few years now and I become more and more skeptical of the things that are said in this forum. There are far too many people who have NO IDEA what they're talking about and simply type pointedly enough that you can't help but take notice. One of the biggest issues with the hobby is full of FOMO's. Google it if you don't know what that means. Those folks are the ones driving up prices. I'm sorry, but without knowing who the errors and variations are, there is no way to know whether or not this is going to be a good product. 2015 Heritage High lived off an excess of RC content. Sorry, but if Benny, Swanson, Moncada and crew don't have more content than just base and chrome, this product will CRUSH some folks.

BINGO!

Last thing I'm adding because the sheep are starting to roll in. For the guys who are nonchalant thinking why guys who are locked in are concerned about this.....pricing does not revert in this hobby from a year to year standpoint.

If you dont think that Topps sees this thread, you are kidding yourself.
If you dont think that Blowout sees this thread, you are kidding yourself.
If you dont think that Dave and Adams sees this thread, you are kidding yourself.
If you dont think that Steel City sees this thread, you are kidding yourself.

Everyone is so focused on the now, but then next year will wonder why preorders will open up at, at least $700 next year. You are costing yourself money in the future.

[DJP73]

I think you guys need to look at Topps Series 1, It pretty much did the same thing. Jumbos are at 680.00 per case now. I think all products will do this this year!!

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by DJP73

I think you guys need to look at Topps Series 1, It pretty much did the same thing. Jumbos are at 680.00 per case now. I think all products will do this this year!!

Went up AFTER it was released. Brents odd's post scared everyone away, bunch of guys were trying to get out from under it. Then it blew up with at least 1 plus hit (sometimes 2-3) in almost every case I ripped.

[rotoblueprint]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

I think you would do well to google what a blanket statement is (which I said twice, to Skip, who I like and respect) and take an economics course (I can link you to an article or two to support those numbers, but I doubt it would make any additional sense to you).

Also my problem with TH? I love the product, I have cases locked in since November.

Thanks for the input though!

Interesting. Yeah, I'll look it up. I'll take a look at that link too when you get a chance.

I'll hold off on the Economics course, my MBA must've been way overpriced if this wasn't covered properly. I'll give Washington State's Economics dept a heads up though.

[rotoblueprint]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

BINGO!

Last thing I'm adding because the sheep are starting to roll in. For the guys who are nonchalant thinking why guys who are locked in are concerned about this.....pricing does not revert in this hobby from a year to year standpoint.

If you dont think that Topps sees this thread, you are kidding yourself.
If you dont think that Blowout sees this thread, you are kidding yourself.
If you dont think that Dave and Adams sees this thread, you are kidding yourself.
If you dont think that Steel City sees this thread, you are kidding yourself.

Everyone is so focused on the now, but then next year will wonder why preorders will open up at, at least $700 next year. You are costing yourself money in the future.

We should gather the entire market and collude the prices down. Don't think there is any financial law against that.


Baaaah!

[Skipscards]

@Dbacksbaseball - I like and respect you too.

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by DJP73

I think you guys need to look at Topps Series 1, It pretty much did the same thing. Jumbos are at 680.00 per case now. I think all products will do this this year!!

2017 TOPPS BASEBALL SERIES 1 JUMBO SEALED CASE HTA 6 BOXES NEW FREE SHIPPING

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by rotoblueprint

We should gather the entire market and collude the prices down. Don't think there is any financial law against that.


Baaaah!

Youre so lost man. I wont waste my time going back and forth. Who said anything about collusion? This is a big hype thread, no one argues that. It is saying some of the 'Major Players' see this thread and adjust accordingly.

I can tell you will last long here.