First Buzz: 2019-20 NBA Hoops Premium Stock Hobby Hybrid

[Mahomie]

Originally Posted by blackandgold

Your doing it wrong if your plans were to flip at the end of an NBA season where Zion is sitting at the house watching on TV himself.

For sure. I think the issue with some wax hoarders is that they purchased with credit, and now it's a race against mounting interest fees.

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by Mahomie

There are a couple guys in my local facebook group who are pushing Hoops Premium wax hard right now - definitely seem eager to move in bulk.

Every trade offer i get now on instagram is people trying to include Hoops PS in the trade. People are trying to get out from under it hard.

[BRob1]

It’s really a function of how much they made. 2020 hoops is selling for more than 2019 HPS which is crazy. HPS is a better product and the 2019 class is better than 2020, maybe not as much better as people believe, but better simply because Zion is the best player from either class.

Part of it also is just people’s tendency to move on to the new class, the new product, as mentioned earlier it’s happening across all 2019 product. Will be interesting to see what happens with 2020 football if Herbert/Burrow don’t get off to hot starts. How much will people move on to Lawrence et al. That’s why in August or so I may move a % of my 2020 Prizm and Optic if we get a 20% pop between now and training camp.

Like i said earlier HPS is still going at 50-100% profit, no reason not to take some of that profit if you’re holding a bunch, particularly if you need the capital. Thankfully I don’t, for me it’s just risk management and taking some profit while it’s there in the middle of a soft market. You can’t hold everything forever. If you’re in this at resale price it’s a little trickier.


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[BRob1]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

If you have a bunch of 2019-20 wax and wanna throw up go look at prices from right before the NBA bubble restart in 2020 or December 2020 season start. Not only could you have sold everything for a ton more than current value but if you're gonna hold until October of 2021 you'd have ended up holding well over a year or about a year to make way less.

For sure, that’s why I try to learn from what happened, but I can only make decisions on what I think will happen in the future. Those past prices may end up being a bubble we don’t see again.

Now I think about 2020 football which I have a lot of and think about what the move is there. Now if one of the QB’s ends up being Mahomes of course I’m set. Chances are they won’t, so what is the product lifecycle going to look like. What happens when the good 2021 products drop if Herbert regresses at all, or if Burrow doesn’t pick up where he left off.

I’ll probably take some profit there in August just like I’m doing with HPS to minimize my risk. The difference being with football i’ll probably be taking a 500% profit.


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[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by BRob1

It’s really a function of how much they made. 2020 hoops is selling for more than 2019 HPS which is crazy. HPS is a better product and the 2019 class is better than 2020, maybe not as much better as people believe, but better simply because Zion is the best player from either class.

Part of it also is just people’s tendency to move on to the new class, the new product, as mentioned earlier it’s happening across all 2019 product. Will be interesting to see what happens with 2020 football if Herbert/Burrow don’t get off to hot starts. How much will people move on to Lawrence et al. That’s why in August or so I may move a % of my 2020 Prizm and Optic if we get a 20% pop between now and training camp.

Like i said earlier HPS is still going at 50-100% profit, no reason not to take some of that profit if you’re holding a bunch, particularly if you need the capital. Thankfully I don’t, for me it’s just risk management and taking some profit while it’s there in the middle of a soft market. You can’t hold everything forever. If you’re in this at resale price it’s a little trickier.


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Unless I'm seeing it wrong isn't 19-20 Hoops outselling 19-20 Hoops Premium by double? Not like they are close. There are only 2 explanations for why Hoops would be so much higher than Hoops Premium. As Hoops Premium is obviously a better product. 1. Hoops Premium is printed to the moon. 2. No one collects anymore. No one cares how the product is or how it looks. All about the money.

The ones I can't believe are the Premium sets with the Pulsar pack. Those are actually limited. Less than 20,000. The Pulsar pack alone should be worth $100+. If you eliminate the Pulsar pack somehow the sets, with 4 total Zion and Morant cards, are selling for around the same as base sets of 2020 Donruss football. The Donruss sets you couldn't give away for $60 sealed last fall. They now usually sell for $120-$150. This is why I think it's more about no one collects than the production numbers. Because those Hoops Premium stock sets were not printed to the moon, look amazing, have a little bonus card pack, and are still worthless. As low as Hoops Premium has dropped the sets have the current least resale value over MSRP.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Unless I'm seeing it wrong isn't 19-20 Hoops outselling 19-20 Hoops Premium by double? Not like they are close. There are only 2 explanations for why Hoops would be so much higher than Hoops Premium. As Hoops Premium is obviously a better product. 1. Hoops Premium is printed to the moon. 2. No one collects anymore. No one cares how the product is or how it looks. All about the money.

The ones I can't believe are the Premium sets with the Pulsar pack. Those are actually limited. Less than 20,000. The Pulsar pack alone should be worth $100+. If you eliminate the Pulsar pack somehow the sets, with 4 total Zion and Morant cards, are selling for around the same as base sets of 2020 Donruss football. The Donruss sets you couldn't give away for $60 sealed last fall. They now usually sell for $120-$150. This is why I think it's more about no one collects than the production numbers. Because those Hoops Premium stock sets were not printed to the moon, look amazing, have a little bonus card pack, and are still worthless. As low as Hoops Premium has dropped the sets have the current least resale value over MSRP.

People do still collect. But we can’t buy everything. Have to make a conscious effort in deciding what to buy. I PC Brogdon. I’d never buy a Brogdon HPS. It’s just another junk Chromium set with a hundred parallels split amongst a dozen formats to dupe people into thinking there’s rarity in any of this stuff.

[Giantrobot]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Unless I'm seeing it wrong isn't 19-20 Hoops outselling 19-20 Hoops Premium by double? Not like they are close. There are only 2 explanations for why Hoops would be so much higher than Hoops Premium. As Hoops Premium is obviously a better product. 1. Hoops Premium is printed to the moon. 2. No one collects anymore. No one cares how the product is or how it looks. All about the money.

The ones I can't believe are the Premium sets with the Pulsar pack. Those are actually limited. Less than 20,000. The Pulsar pack alone should be worth $100+. If you eliminate the Pulsar pack somehow the sets, with 4 total Zion and Morant cards, are selling for around the same as base sets of 2020 Donruss football. The Donruss sets you couldn't give away for $60 sealed last fall. They now usually sell for $120-$150. This is why I think it's more about no one collects than the production numbers. Because those Hoops Premium stock sets were not printed to the moon, look amazing, have a little bonus card pack, and are still worthless. As low as Hoops Premium has dropped the sets have the current least resale value over MSRP.

Ding ding, we have a winner.

You can see it from the posts on this board alone.

The old adage “buy what you like” holds true. Trends come and go.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

People do still collect. But we can’t buy everything. Have to make a conscious effort in deciding what to buy. I PC Brogdon. I’d never buy a Brogdon HPS. It’s just another junk Chromium set with a hundred parallels split amongst a dozen formats to dupe people into thinking there’s rarity in any of this stuff.

I understand what you mean. But if you don't think the pendulum has massively swayed in the last 1 1/2-2 years I don't know what to tell you. 18-24 months ago I think it was mainly 95% collector 5% investor/flipper/reseller. Now it is at least 95% investor/flipper/reseller less than 5% collector. I know most people do both but 95%+ first priority now is invest/flip/resell.

[blackandgold]

You all are dissecting a product that’s not even a year old lol Bottom line is any 19-20 product years down the road will sell well because of Zion/Morant 18-19 product was printed to the moon- go check those prices. It took 2 yrs to make any money on 17-18 Prizm- go check those prices The key to selling wax for decent profits is patience- just like prospecting players.

[k13]

When is the last time you heard anyone putting together a set of some of these products?

Meanwhile every year everyone and their mom put together a Young Guns set.

Why don't people put together a base NBA Hoops set with rookies it be relatively cheap???

Because there's no collectors.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by k13

When is the last time you heard anyone putting together a set of some of these products?

Meanwhile every year everyone and their mom put together a Young Guns set.

Why don't people put together a base NBA Hoops set with rookies it be relatively cheap???

Because there's no collectors.

I put together a complete set since i found so much at msrp..it was fun. Have it in a cardguard binder

[k13]

Originally Posted by blackandgold

You all are dissecting a product that’s not even a year old lol Bottom line is any 19-20 product years down the road will sell well because of Zion/Morant 18-19 product was printed to the moon- go check those prices. It took 2 yrs to make any money on 17-18 Prizm- go check those prices The key to selling wax for decent profits is patience- just like prospecting players.

You missed a BIG key point.
All those products were opened for cheap leaving it with limited supply.

18-19 wax has already dropped 40% from peak too...

[k13]

Don't forget cheap grading is gone which basically kills wax prices.

[Hoopscardz83]

Originally Posted by Chris P

I put together a complete set since i found so much at msrp..it was fun. Have it in a cardguard binder

I put the set together. I still build all sets that I can. Prizm is the toughest. Optic might be tough this year. I don't buy marked up stuff.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by blackandgold

You all are dissecting a product that’s not even a year old lol Bottom line is any 19-20 product years down the road will sell well because of Zion/Morant 18-19 product was printed to the moon- go check those prices. It took 2 yrs to make any money on 17-18 Prizm- go check those prices The key to selling wax for decent profits is patience- just like prospecting players.

Is this a joke? 19-20 and 20-21 on average were printed way more than 17-18 and 18-19. Not to mention there is less sealed 17-18 and 18-19 retail wax right now than there will be sealed Hoops Premium or most 19-20 retail in 5+ years. Hardly anyone kept retail sealed a few years ago. Now everyone does. 17-18 and 18-19 you have players showing in the playoffs right now they are superstars. Luka looks like he will be the face of the league in 2 years. Donovan Mitchell has a very good chance to reach the finals this season.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by blackandgold

You all are dissecting a product that’s not even a year old lol Bottom line is any 19-20 product years down the road will sell well because of Zion/Morant 18-19 product was printed to the moon- go check those prices. It took 2 yrs to make any money on 17-18 Prizm- go check those prices The key to selling wax for decent profits is patience- just like prospecting players.

Difference is you didn’t have average Joe sitting on $80k worth of retail products back then.

The only reason pricing has held up okay on stuff like this is that the big 3 are still driving the market. But if you’ve been paying attention, you’ve seen pricing start to come down, and the coupons being offered go up in % off. Don’t forget it wasn’t but two years ago when every retail basketball product outside of Prizm could be found in clearance at multiple locations across the country. Not saying we get back to that, but many of these products are going to be treated like the junk that they are.

Nothing retail from 2018+ is rare. Don’t put your money at risk by trusting the weak hands that are holding the product.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Difference is you didn’t have average Joe sitting on $80k worth of retail products back then.

The only reason pricing has held up okay on stuff like this is that the big 3 are still driving the market. But if you’ve been paying attention, you’ve seen pricing start to come down, and the coupons being offered go up in % off. Don’t forget it wasn’t but two years ago when every retail basketball product outside of Prizm could be found in clearance at multiple locations across the country. Not saying we get back to that, but many of these products are going to be treated like the junk that they are.

Nothing retail from 2018+ is rare. Don’t put your money at risk by trusting the weak hands that are holding the product.

I'd feel pretty good if I was holding all 18-19 retail. Luka is gonna be the face of the league. Trae is looking like a superstar. Heck both of them have a decent chance to make the conference finals this year. No one would of predicted that a month ago.

I know some people held 18-19, but I don't think retail was held sealed in mass until 19-20 Optic basketball came out. I don't think it got to extremes until 19-20 Chronicles basketball. I'd feel good if I was on everything retail 19-20 Prizm basketball and earlier for basketball.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

I'd feel pretty good if I was holding all 18-19 retail. Luka is gonna be the face of the league. Trae is looking like a superstar. Heck both of them have a decent chance to make the conference finals this year. No one would of predicted that a month ago.

I know some people held 18-19, but I don't think retail was held sealed in mass until 19-20 Optic basketball came out. I don't think it got to extremes until 19-20 Chronicles basketball. I'd feel good if I was on everything retail 19-20 Prizm basketball and earlier for basketball.

2018 is fine is you bought around MSRP. Problem is that compared to 2019, there’s just not many holding significant amounts of 2018 wax that did that.

[nman84]

Originally Posted by blackandgold

You all are dissecting a product that’s not even a year old lol Bottom line is any 19-20 product years down the road will sell well because of Zion/Morant 18-19 product was printed to the moon- go check those prices. It took 2 yrs to make any money on 17-18 Prizm- go check those prices The key to selling wax for decent profits is patience- just like prospecting players.

18-19 was printed to the moon and 19-20 was several round trips to the moon and back. Wax always win, yes. But it’s going to take a while longer for the more recent stuff to get back to the highs we previously saw during the pandemic, more so for products like this.

There are plenty of inefficiencies in the hobby to take advantage of, before the playoffs and through the off-season. If you have the capital to take advantage of those inefficiencies while holding onto wax, more power to you. If I’m trying to free up capital, this is what I’m letting go of. There are better ways to put that money to use.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

2018 is fine is you bought around MSRP. Problem is that compared to 2019, there’s just not many holding significant amounts of 2018 wax that did that.

This too... there are ton of hoarders now starting with 19-20 wax

[scyforce]

I like HPS, the chrome like card very similar to mosiac and the card pic are much better than mosiac.


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[TimBuckTwo]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Unless I'm seeing it wrong isn't 19-20 Hoops outselling 19-20 Hoops Premium by double? Not like they are close. There are only 2 explanations for why Hoops would be so much higher than Hoops Premium. As Hoops Premium is obviously a better product. 1. Hoops Premium is printed to the moon. 2. No one collects anymore. No one cares how the product is or how it looks. All about the money.

The ones I can't believe are the Premium sets with the Pulsar pack. Those are actually limited. Less than 20,000. The Pulsar pack alone should be worth $100+. If you eliminate the Pulsar pack somehow the sets, with 4 total Zion and Morant cards, are selling for around the same as base sets of 2020 Donruss football. The Donruss sets you couldn't give away for $60 sealed last fall. They now usually sell for $120-$150. This is why I think it's more about no one collects than the production numbers. Because those Hoops Premium stock sets were not printed to the moon, look amazing, have a little bonus card pack, and are still worthless. As low as Hoops Premium has dropped the sets have the current least resale value over MSRP.

[phil]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Don’t forget it wasn’t but two years ago when every retail basketball product outside of Prizm could be found in clearance at multiple locations across the country.

You mean including Prizm. During the 2019 offseason 2018 Prizm NBA was dirt cheap, 20 box cases of 24 count offered on sale multiple times for around $1000 etc.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by phil

You mean including Prizm. During the 2019 offseason 2018 Prizm NBA was dirt cheap, 20 box cases of 24 count offered on sale multiple times for around $1000 etc.

Yes. I just meant retail in retail stores. There may have been some found. But you could go into most Walmarts in summer 2019 and find Optic, Chronicles, Donruss, etc.

[doctorres112]

I went ahead and ripped 4 hangers & 2 cellos from my stash....pulled some interesting stuff and since this was essentially my first rip, I'm a little unsure of some of the parallels.

Highlights
Cam Reddish CO 2019 silver
Ja Morant tribute base
Ja Morant tribute purple disco
LeBron base purple disco
Zion "rookie special" - - - Is this rare?
Jordan Poole RC purple disco
Lillard tribute green
Luka "get out the way" base
Thon Maker scope
Jabari Parker scope
Lavine "lights, camera, action" silver
PJ Tucker - confused on this one, it's got a bunch of ovals in rows - came from a bonus pack in a cello

And a bunch of base RCs, tribute, etc...

-Chris

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by doctorres112

I went ahead and ripped 4 hangers & 2 cellos from my stash....pulled some interesting stuff and since this was essentially my first rip, I'm a little unsure of some of the parallels.

Highlights
Cam Reddish CO 2019 silver
Ja Morant tribute base
Ja Morant tribute purple disco
LeBron base purple disco
Zion "rookie special" - - - Is this rare?
Jordan Poole RC purple disco
Lillard tribute green
Luka "get out the way" base
Thon Maker scope
Jabari Parker scope
Lavine "lights, camera, action" silver
PJ Tucker - confused on this one, it's got a bunch of ovals in rows - came from a bonus pack in a cello

And a bunch of base RCs, tribute, etc...

-Chris

That rookie special is pretty rare and a cool card imo. there was a weird spread between ask and sold on that for awhile. Everyone was asking $100+ plus but the actual sales were around $50, there just weren’t many sales happening.

That and the zion purple disco are your best pulls. if the disco is centered it would be a good grading candidate down the road.


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