Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by vintg

OR

and this is a big OR, buy, hold, and invest in vintage.

ruth, cobb, mantle, aaron, mays, williams, j. robinson, clemente, koufax

i'm gonna let you in on a little secret. well-centered hof's in the 3-6 grade
range continue their upward trajectory. always in demand. and liquid.

it's not difficult, it really isn't. it's alot of fun, and you don't lose any sleep
over one of these guys slumping or getting injured, or God forbid, suspended.

The vintage market and modern market are quite different, for many reasons.

Most of the angry dealers are modern guys who got in during the pandemic.

As mentioned before, the vintage market lacks the hustle and bustle that the modern market depends on. Thus the modern angst. But that’s what drives modern men.

[BonVoyage]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Maybe prices are dropping for the big shows, but the last few regional shows I've been to aren't showing the "desperation stage"----YET.

I think dealers made so much $$$ over the last 2 years, they can absorb loses for a while longer. I'm calling next spring/summer to be the time when we really see some movement in prices.


Plus, box prices are still insanely expensive compared to singles prices. I don't feel like we've reached critical mass until box prices drop.

The date keeps getting moved back. Earlier this year people were saying that the second the national ended prices would plummet


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[djolley86]

The last show I was at about a month ago was packed with people, although prices were sky high and all of the dealers were complaining that nothing was moving (imagine that). Lots of kids with their little briefcase/safe things trying to make ridiculous trades in their favor and getting shot down.

I did notice that there was a significant uptick in low-end PSA cards for sale - lots of stuff valued $15-50 or so, and that was pretty much what seemed to be moving the entire day.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Maybe prices are dropping for the big shows, but the last few regional shows I've been to aren't showing the "desperation stage"----YET.

I think dealers made so much $$$ over the last 2 years, they can absorb loses for a while longer. I'm calling next spring/summer to be the time when we really see some movement in prices.


Plus, box prices are still insanely expensive compared to singles prices. I don't feel like we've reached critical mass until box prices drop.

My BCA Price Index is off 40% in one year and well over 50% from peak. This is all eBay stuff though, so maybe it's different live.

Your last statement in 100% correct. I expect that to be the last shoe to drop, and it should drop fairly soon. Everything else has gotten crushed, so why should box prices stay high?

Originally Posted by BonVoyage

The date keeps getting moved back. Earlier this year people were saying that the second the national ended prices would plummet


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They kind of did. My BCA Price Index was down ~20% in August and September.

ETA: I'm doing a quick update of my Price Index. I've got about 83% of the dollars accounted for and it is down 42% since last November and 24% since mid July.

[blackbears86]

[QUOTE=BonVoyage;18505796]The date keeps getting moved back. Earlier this year people were saying that the second the national ended prices would plummet




Card prices are certainly down on ebay and box prices are starting to drop a little, but I'm not seeing it at shows yet.



But it's coming!!!!!!!!!!

[theshowandme]

I’ll say it again, the national will be a good time for collectors who want the good stuff

[ddearing]

A lot of this is the economy and the market being overheated in the first place, but the lack of new star power in the collector world isn't helping. Outside of Judge, nobody has "set the card world on fire" for over a year now.

A year ago, we had 4+ rookie quarterbacks to be excited about, plus Herbert plus Burrow in the Super Bowl.
We all knew that Acuna, Tatis and Soto were going to battle out for MVP for the next decade.
Zion brought new collectors into the market and lots of money.

We don't have any of that excitement now because there are no players to get that excited about. Maybe Jalen Hurts right now and a little bit of Judge still. But Hurts isn't bringing new people into the hobby. He's just taking some of the existing hobby money. Unless we get a basketball rookie to come out and dominate, I don't see it changing soon.

Again, its probably mostly the economy, but also a lack of excitement about any players.

[Captain1302]

We are definitely in a buyer's market now. If you have the money you will be fine. It's just not as easy to make money on everything now, you have to be more selective. Of course most baseball is down especially modern. Basketball is trending up some now however. During the pandemic we had people throwing money at everything. Wax will come down but it will be slower due to the breakers. I'm going to the big show in Nashville this weekend to buy. I'll report back.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by ddearing

A lot of this is the economy and the market being overheated in the first place, but the lack of new star power in the collector world isn't helping. Outside of Judge, nobody has "set the card world on fire" for over a year now.

A year ago, we had 4+ rookie quarterbacks to be excited about, plus Herbert plus Burrow in the Super Bowl.
We all knew that Acuna, Tatis and Soto were going to battle out for MVP for the next decade.
Zion brought new collectors into the market and lots of money.

We don't have any of that excitement now because there are no players to get that excited about. Maybe Jalen Hurts right now and a little bit of Judge still. But Hurts isn't bringing new people into the hobby. He's just taking some of the existing hobby money. Unless we get a basketball rookie to come out and dominate, I don't see it changing soon.

Again, its probably mostly the economy, but also a lack of excitement about any players.

I was thinking the same the other day. Because of the need to have a hobby superstar in every rookie class, the hobby tried forcing it upon players who stand almost no chance of ever being that. When the cost of entry is insane, the prices aren’t attractive even when these guys go on a nice run.

[HRderby22]

Box prices remain propped up by breakers, but anyone paying attention can see those breaks are often filling very slowly and/or filling only with discounts. In theory, that market will get hit and then box prices will follow.

At this time, I'm not even considering buying a box or joining a break. The math just doesn't add up - at least to me it doesn't

[nabzy28]

All I'm throwing into the mix is that I receive a heck of a lot more solicitation emails from the places trying to sell boxes and fill breaks. Many places that blew off the people who were spending 5 figures with them a year are trying to get those people back. Good times.

[Raleigh504]

I have joined a few break groups on facebook (haven't bought in any) after I left the one I was with in 2018-2020 (guy had some racist rants and was siding/backing with some scumbags who were ripping people off). Every post I see for the breaks its discounted teams or the price doesn't even seem like you can get your money's worth (spending $100 and most autos of the main guy go for $40-60 graded).

Plus, it seems more breakers are only sending out hits/rookies/chrome and keeping much of the other stuff for themselves or sell it as a different spot.

[Kobe101]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I was thinking the same the other day. Because of the need to have a hobby superstar in every rookie class, the hobby tried forcing it upon players who stand almost no chance of ever being that. When the cost of entry is insane, the prices aren’t attractive even when these guys go on a nice run.

That is the biggest thing for me. It just isn't worth it to thy to prospect these new guys as their starting cost is way too high.

Especially in basketball, non lottery picks who are the 7th guy on a crap team cost more than Tatum, Fox, Mitchell, Fultz, Luka, Trae, ect did.

No way that is worth the risk when I can just buy cool cards of the guys I enjoy that are already superstars.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by HRderby22

Box prices remain propped up by breakers, but anyone paying attention can see those breaks are often filling very slowly and/or filling only with discounts. In theory, that market will get hit and then box prices will follow.

At this time, I'm not even considering buying a box or joining a break. The math just doesn't add up - at least to me it doesn't

The guys I follow in breaking followers are way down. On the bigger products they are trying to sell sealed for 700-800 dollars a Box less than the big boys and sitting on inventory. Ont he smaller 125-150 boxes they are 25% or so lower sitting on inventory.


Remember a lot of distributors got very very very fat over the past two years. They are content to move slow dimes instead of fast nickels right now. Thats why we are seeing box prices crash slower than singles.

Singles market= lots of people competing of various financial needs.
Sealed wax market= 7-8 major contenders able to sit on their boats and laugh a while longer.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

The guys I follow in breaking followers are way down. On the bigger products they are trying to sell sealed for 700-800 dollars a Box less than the big boys and sitting on inventory. Ont he smaller 125-150 boxes they are 25% or so lower sitting on inventory.


Remember a lot of distributors got very very very fat over the past two years. They are content to move slow dimes instead of fast nickels right now. Thats why we are seeing box prices crash slower than singles.

Singles market= lots of people competing of various financial needs.
Sealed wax market= 7-8 major contenders able to sit on their boats and laugh a while longer.

This 100%, and what I've been saying all along.


When you are making absolute bank for 2 straight years, you can afford to sit and wait things out. Will we see some actual deals on black friday from the big three? I say yes, but I think people are going to be disappointed.


Will Blowout even have a black Friday? I'm not holding my breath. I would think they would announce something this week as they usually start November with "waves"

[ThoseBackPages]

GOAT Meat never goes bad

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

This 100%, and what I've been saying all along.


When you are making absolute bank for 2 straight years, you can afford to sit and wait things out. Will we see some actual deals on black friday from the big three? I say yes, but I think people are going to be disappointed.


Will Blowout even have a black Friday? I'm not holding my breath. I would think they would announce something this week as they usually start November with "waves"

Seems like their “dash deals” are Black Friday sales but year round.

[KhalDrogo]

If you’re intelligent, how much money you made should not factor in what you do with your current inventory. If you’re looking for ROI, these are the only questions you should be asking.

1. What’s the future potential for this product?
2. Can I generate a better return on my money elsewhere?
3. Does a sale in X years generate a better return than a sale today when factoring in inflation?
4. How much income tax will I owe on a sale this year, or how much tax savings can I generate by taking a loss?

That last question is so important if you’re in the green for the year. For every $1 I lose selling a card now, I’m saving 32-35 cents in tax liability. So I am cutting my losers now and holding onto my winners to sell when the new year starts. If I sell a card for $500 that I paid $1000 for, I save myself $160-$175 in taxes, and I get that $500 in my pocket today to do whatever with.

[oldgoldy97]

Pretty telling when one site has a product that is coming out tomorrow for $200 less than another place. Some are still trying to hose their customers.

[k13]

Yeah the average person is doing taxes for their cards....

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Seems like their “dash deals” are Black Friday sales but year round.

Some of their dash deals have looked moderately enticing, but nothing really has screamed at me as a buy.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by k13

Yeah the average person is doing taxes for their cards....

this forum, twitter, and Facebook will be fascinating to watch come February 2023 when those 1099's start coming through...

[imbluestreak23]

Dow jones up 5% on the week.

#WEBACK?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Dow jones up 5% on the week.

#WEBACK?

I know you’re being facetious, but we are not back.

Look at what’s happening with the Swiss credit swap line with the Fed.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I know you’re being facetious, but we are not back.

Look at what’s happening with the Swiss credit swap line with the Fed.

Nope, we are officially back. Everything is now going to tha moon. Do not miss out.