PSA Complete Through Date (CTD) Tracker

[CheapThief]

Originally Posted by HalfNipponese

Blockbuster
Zenith
Motorola
JVC
AT&T (the first 2 incarnations, at&t is not the same company)
Netscape
Yahoo
IBM

I can go on an on. All these companies were the titans of their industries before they failed to adapt to consumer demand.

Agreed. I'm not sure what happens in the short term, but in the medium term the cost of card grading is going to drop-- and the drop will be substantial. Bottom line, it just doesn't take a ton of skill to distinguish a card with visible flaws from card without any-- and when you're looking at ultra modern cards, that's really the only distinction that matters.

Sure, PSA can charge more than the competition because they have some brand equity. But what's that equity worth? 150%? 200%? Maybe, but it sure as hell isn't worth 400%, which is what everyone arguing for 4x price hikes seems to think.

Edit to add: My guess is that the moratorium on submissions isn't to reduce the backlog, really, but rather for Nat and his team to figure out how to integrate the technology needed to get grading fees down to $6 or so per card. At some point the cost of grading will trend towards the marginal cost of grading a card, and I can guarantee you that the marginal cost is not $40 per or whatever.

[HalfNipponese]

Originally Posted by CheapThief

Agreed. I'm not sure what happens in the short term, but in the medium term the cost of card grading is going to drop-- and the drop will be substantial. Bottom line, it just doesn't take a ton of skill to distinguish a card with visible flaws from card without any-- and when you're looking at ultra modern cards, that's really the only distinction that matters.

Sure, PSA can charge more than the competition because they have some brand equity. But what's that equity worth? 150%? 200%? Maybe, but it sure as hell isn't worth 400%, which is what everyone arguing for 4x price hikes seems to think.

Edit to add: My guess is that the moratorium on submissions isn't to reduce the backlog, really, but rather for Nat and his team to figure out how to integrate the technology needed to get grading fees down to $6 or so per card. At some point the cost of grading will trend towards the marginal cost of grading a card, and I can guarantee you that the marginal cost is not $40 per or whatever.

Nat Turner gave an interview a few days ago and the future of is the sub $10 slab. This ride will end one day and things will return to normal. I agree with you 100%.

A bigger tent is needed or the average Joe will be squeezed out and will lose interest. The fact that the new PSA management team is researching the low end market gives me hope we don’t kill the golden goose.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

Ultra modern base is a problem........ do we want Herbert, tua, burrow, etc being graded. Absolutely. Do we want every rc and every star base being graded across multiple sports. I would say no and I’ll explain.

Assuming you want pretty much every rc and every base star being graded is assuming the current activity level within the hobby is 100 percent normal and will continue indefinitely. If PSA were to continue and push excessively hard to hire expecting that normalcy they would put themselves in a huge bind down the road. Besides being incompetent, the biggest issue a business can face is growing too large too quick. Service, quality, availability all go to crap almost immediately and they just can’t stop the drowning. Ultimately people will get fed up and move on. In this case all the companies are in the expansion problem together and it’s a very niche business type. PSA will need to make a judgment decision on ultra modern. If longer term they think retail will be picked up by scalpers forever and every break will have any moderately decent base card graded.... then they can act accordingly. I do not think this will go on forever and frankly even if goes on another 2 years they will be working through all the stuff they have that long and can’t really afford to open the flood gates again in that time frame.

I’d price ultra modern at a point where people would send in good rookies, good vet parallels, cool inserts, or whatever else makes sense to have stable profit on the resale side. I would open at 45 per thinking that is a bit high but I’d need to see the volume submitted and then go from there. They need to position themselves for what stability will look like in this market down the road. I do t think 500k cards a week is stable

I would argue all of this stuff is happening currently. I mean one big category of service for a TPG is how fast do the cards come back? Availability is currently...not. I guess quality hasn't suffered too much? Although there are reports of some ultra modern subs coming back 10% gem which is...unlikely.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by CheapThief

Dropping prices is easier said than done. What happens to all the subs in queue at $45/per when PSA realizes they've set their price point too high, and decide to drop the price to $20 per? You're going to have thousands of either ticked off customers, and/or a deluge of cancelled orders.

PSA got to where they are by being a price leader (at least among reputable TCG's), and by offering more/better ancillary services than their competitors (functioning pop report, set registry, tamper-proof slabs, etc). I can't think that the last 12 months will make them rethink the business model that kept them at the top of the heap for the last 20 years.

It's actually very easy to drop prices. You don't lower the sticker price but instead run a special. Just like every other business.

[CaliCollector87]

Originally Posted by xtnimot

April 27th

Walk-Through 20 Apr 2021
Super Express 13 Apr 2021
Express 16 Feb 2021
Regular 3 Feb 2021
Economy 3 Sept 2020
Reholder 30 Sept 2020
Collectors Club Vouchers 8 Sept 2020
Value - Ultra Modern 3 Sept 2020
Value - Modern 9 Aug 2020
Value - Vintage 16 Sept 2020
Value - TCG 20 Aug 2020
Quarterly Specials 3 Aug 2020

April 28th 2:00am pst

Walk-Through 21 Apr 2021
Super Express 13 Apr 2021
Express 16 Feb 2021
Regular 3 Feb 2021
Economy 3 Sept 2020
Reholder 30 Sept 2020
Collectors Club Vouchers 8 Sept 2020
Value - Ultra Modern 3 Sept 2020
Value - Modern 9 Aug 2020
Value - Vintage 16 Sept 2020
Value - TCG 20 Aug 2020
Quarterly Specials 4 Aug 2020

[OldReignman]

Probably been answered before but I have some Collector Club PSA vouchers left... any way to use them?

[Woodsy074]

Are there people on here really waiting over two weeks on Super Express orders? The lack of progress on the top two levels is very odd. I’d expect that at a minimum those would basically be fully caught up by now.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I would argue all of this stuff is happening currently. I mean one big category of service for a TPG is how fast do the cards come back? Availability is currently...not. I guess quality hasn't suffered too much? Although there are reports of some ultra modern subs coming back 10% gem which is...unlikely.

I agree. It’s all happening currently. That is my point. The entire industry grew too fast for anyone to have even the slightest chance. I find it excessively difficult to think 6-10 dollar per card subs will be a thing..... but ultimately if they can’t get registry sets, 90s, early Pokémon, non sports into the 15ish pocket they are going to face issues long term

[kabrune2]

Originally Posted by CheapThief

Dropping prices is easier said than done. What happens to all the subs in queue at $45/per when PSA realizes they've set their price point too high, and decide to drop the price to $20 per? You're going to have thousands of either ticked off customers, and/or a deluge of cancelled orders.

PSA got to where they are by being a price leader (at least among reputable TCG's), and by offering more/better ancillary services than their competitors (functioning pop report, set registry, tamper-proof slabs, etc). I can't think that the last 12 months will make them rethink the business model that kept them at the top of the heap for the last 20 years.

The simple solution to this is to not offer ‘bulk’ services when they open up, leave economy/standard at $45/card so that if/when business does start to slow down you can open up Bulk at the lower price point.

[alphaomegas]

Originally Posted by kabrune2

The simple solution to this is to not offer ‘bulk’ services when they open up, leave economy/standard at $45/card so that if/when business does start to slow down you can open up Bulk at the lower price point.

Price is everything and not everyone has 1k$ single cards to grade....most of them are under 20$ and if graded well be worth about $100 or so. They better keep prices cheap or people go elsewhere or they will eat through there backlog in no time.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by OldReignman

Probably been answered before but I have some Collector Club PSA vouchers left... any way to use them?

You can use them now, they are still available. Just click on vouchers and you are good to go.

[Brandonmelnick0]

I can tell you that quality definitely is declining at PSA currently. I had a Super Express submission for a 2020-21 Panini Certified Lamelo Ball Orange Mirror #'D /99. The card was returned to me with obvious surface scratching and damage inside the case with a 7 grade on it. This card was sent to them in GEM MINT or mint condition minimum!! They just damaged my irreplaceable Lamelo Ball RC graded it, CHARGED ME OVER $300 for the experience and shipped it back. Currently a month into dealing with them to "make it right" as if they ever could....
I also have 8 express and normal subs that were received 5-7 weeks ago and still have not been entered into the system, add to that they are making ZERO progress on these types of subs. Needless to say I'm not super excited by what I've seen from PSA recently.

[panamamyers]

Originally Posted by alphaomegas

Price is everything and not everyone has 1k$ single cards to grade....most of them are under 20$ and if graded well be worth about $100 or so. They better keep prices cheap or people go elsewhere or they will eat through there backlog in no time.

That would be the strategy. Keep prices high enough that just enough people go elsewhere or decide not to grade. PSA does not owe anyone the ability to take a mediocre rookie and pay 20 bucks to turn it into a 50 dollar card.
You are looki h st this backwards. They are not in need of finding a way to keep business. They need to find a way to lose just enough business.

[bigmon916]

Day 16 of QA2 on Economy order that was entered into PSA system on 9/22/20. Wait time at this step is horrible.

[Halleluka]

Originally Posted by bigmon916

Day 16 of QA2 on Economy order that was entered into PSA system on 9/22/20. Wait time at this step is horrible.

Business days or calendar days? Still so close! Good luck!

[bigmon916]

Originally Posted by Halleluka

Business days or calendar days? Still so close! Good luck!

Calendar days

[kabrune2]

Originally Posted by alphaomegas

Price is everything and not everyone has 1k$ single cards to grade....most of them are under 20$ and if graded well be worth about $100 or so. They better keep prices cheap or people go elsewhere or they will eat through there backlog in no time.

Right now PSA has an issue with demand, my solution wasn’t to say never bring back $10 or less grading, it was to say PSA can’t handle bulk cheap submission without getting overwhelmed. It was in response to someone saying if PSA charged $40 for bulk and then lowered the price later when demand plummeted then PSA would have a bunch of pissed off people with orders waiting that now want the lower price too, my solution was to not offer ‘bulk’ and call the new lowest pricing tier economy, and when PSA can open up cheap bulk again there won’t be an issue since that grading is a lower tier than Economy.

[discodanman45]

My 9/4 arrived and 10/7 entered PSA Economy order is in assembly!!! Shocked me when I logged onto PSA today.

[BuddyCards]

Originally Posted by Brandonmelnick0

I can tell you that quality definitely is declining at PSA currently. I had a Super Express submission for a 2020-21 Panini Certified Lamelo Ball Orange Mirror #'D /99. The card was returned to me with obvious surface scratching and damage inside the case with a 7 grade on it. This card was sent to them in GEM MINT or mint condition minimum!! They just damaged my irreplaceable Lamelo Ball RC graded it, CHARGED ME OVER $300 for the experience and shipped it back. Currently a month into dealing with them to "make it right" as if they ever could....
I also have 8 express and normal subs that were received 5-7 weeks ago and still have not been entered into the system, add to that they are making ZERO progress on these types of subs. Needless to say I'm not super excited by what I've seen from PSA recently.

Yeah, not surprising. Rapid expansion without the appropriate quality controls in place. Very typical for an inexperienced company trying to mass produce. Over the years, and especially the last 12 months, they've gone from "craftsman" to assembly workers. The experience and skill of the assembly workers is not going to be any where near the "craftsman." They need to quickly learn about mass production and quality control otherwise they're going to have a lot of issues to deal with.

[BuddyCards]

Originally Posted by Woodsy074

Are there people on here really waiting over two weeks on Super Express orders? The lack of progress on the top two levels is very odd. I’d expect that at a minimum those would basically be fully caught up by now.

Yep, my Super Express (less) was received by PSA on 3/11/2021 - still not entered into their system (47 calendar days and counting).

[BuddyCards]

Originally Posted by CheapThief

Agreed. I'm not sure what happens in the short term, but in the medium term the cost of card grading is going to drop-- and the drop will be substantial. Bottom line, it just doesn't take a ton of skill to distinguish a card with visible flaws from card without any-- and when you're looking at ultra modern cards, that's really the only distinction that matters.

Sure, PSA can charge more than the competition because they have some brand equity. But what's that equity worth? 150%? 200%? Maybe, but it sure as hell isn't worth 400%, which is what everyone arguing for 4x price hikes seems to think.

Edit to add: My guess is that the moratorium on submissions isn't to reduce the backlog, really, but rather for Nat and his team to figure out how to integrate the technology needed to get grading fees down to $6 or so per card. At some point the cost of grading will trend towards the marginal cost of grading a card, and I can guarantee you that the marginal cost is not $40 per or whatever.

Not sure if the pricing regresses toward a marginal cost. I think the pricing will be related to the amount of value-add - otherwise, PSA could become a raw card purchasing company, grade the cards, and then sell at the market rate.

[Brandonmelnick0]

Even with all their expansion and growth, I don't think we ever see subs under $40 again there. PSA literally has no incentive to do it. When they see that even with all their growth, that they can stay at capacity or close only taking subs for $50 or more, why would they ever go back? They can literally grade less cards, returning them faster, while making way more money doing so. All accomplished basically by cutting out the Value and Economy subs. At some point they are going to basically turn over the "light work" to the other grading services picking up their scraps. Watch and see...

[Brandonmelnick0]

^^^ It has already begun...

[BuddyCards]

Originally Posted by Brandonmelnick0

Even with all their expansion and growth, I don't think we ever see subs under $40 again there. PSA literally has no incentive to do it. When they see that even with all their growth, that they can stay at capacity or close only taking subs for $50 or more, why would they ever go back? They can literally grade less cards, returning them faster, while making way more money doing so. All accomplished basically by cutting out the Value and Economy subs. At some point they are going to basically turn over the "light work" to the other grading services picking up their scraps. Watch and see...

Exactly - if there is high enough demand for higher margin products, companies will focus on those products.

[mjnyc888]

Hi all. Sent in three express orders before the deadline. Two received on 3/16 and one received on 3/30. The 3/30 one was just entered. Is this just dumb luck?