Topps Project 2020 is the worst product since 1991 Fleer

[cardsforever]

Originally Posted by eldustino

Two thread observations (this is not a critique of you or your exercise CJ):

1) two data points doesn't establish a pattern, ever.
2) (to the dude a few days ago who called Topps to complain about the BS of not getting a foil in his 20 card P2020 order) getting 3 cards in 60 and 5 cards in 100, doesn't mean you'll get 1 with 20. It's correlation and also evidence that 1:20 is true, but it doesn't mean you get a foil with every 20 cards.

MATHS!!!!!!!!

So true.

I received two Jeter foils (P2020) purchasing 5-card lots.

I received a "Yankees Inconic Efdot" foil buying one card.

[1977 Cloth]

Originally Posted by cardsforever

So true.

I received two Jeter foils (P2020) purchasing 5-card lots.

I received a "Yankees Inconic Efdot" foil buying one card.

That does not make the statement true. You can get a foil when purchasing fewer, but based on every other purchase in multiples of 20 it was thought to be a "guarantee."

Wouldn't you think on a purchase of 100 you may get 6 or 7 or even 3 or 4, but both times exactly 5? Same with the other purchases. I am done. I surrender. It is Topps, and I tried to impart logic from them. I am the fool.

[Timsterino]

Originally Posted by WhoKilledTupac

As long as it is not Ron English doing the Mantle..

Mantle sitting over a fireplace?

[JRX]

I'm shocked topps has gone a day without a mantle card

[cardsforever]

Originally Posted by 1977 Cloth

That does not make the statement true. You can get a foil when purchasing fewer, but based on every other purchase in multiples of 20 it was thought to be a "guarantee."

Wouldn't you think on a purchase of 100 you may get 6 or 7 or even 3 or 4, but both times exactly 5? Same with the other purchases. I am done. I surrender. It is Topps, and I tried to impart logic from them. I am the fool.

When it comes to cards nothing is guaranteed.

I recall some collectors getting three autographs (only one is "guaranteed") in a case of "2020 Allen & Ginter Chrome.

I also recall one or two not getting any autographs in the aforementioned case.

[eldustino]

Originally Posted by 1977 Cloth

That does not make the statement true. You can get a foil when purchasing fewer, but based on every other purchase in multiples of 20 it was thought to be a "guarantee."

Wouldn't you think on a purchase of 100 you may get 6 or 7 or even 3 or 4, but both times exactly 5? Same with the other purchases. I am done. I surrender. It is Topps, and I tried to impart logic from them. I am the fool.

You're not a fool, I just personally think it's absolutely incorrect that foils are guaranteed even with 100 cards. I would bet all 100 card orders got one, but, random is random. Ordering 20 cards was never intended to guarantee a foil, or else they would have described it differently.

[ThoseBackPages]

Topps will always, Topps

[cjraleigh]

Originally Posted by eldustino

You're not a fool, I just personally think it's absolutely incorrect that foils are guaranteed even with 100 cards. I would bet all 100 card orders got one, but, random is random. Ordering 20 cards was never intended to guarantee a foil, or else they would have described it differently.

Indeed. This reminds me of how coin flips are sometimes (incorrectly) viewed if a “trend” emerges after several flips.

Let’s say a genuine coin (no funny business) is legitimately flipped the same way 100 times. If by some mathematical fluke, it comes up tails the first 99 times, it STILL has 50/50 chance of coming up heads the 100th time.

Each and every flip stands on its own as a 50/50 proposition.

Same general idea with last year’s foils. You SHOULD get 1 foil for every 20 cards, but no guarantee.

[Oliroller]

Uh oh....Tatis injured

[ThoseBackPages]

i saw that

[eldustino]

Originally Posted by cjraleigh

Each and every flip stands on its own as a 50/50 proposition.

I've laid out some bad maths before, in particular last summer when we were trying to figure odds at 1 gold if a person purchase X number of each card. Some smart maths people provided a sound answer (had to do with the odds of NOT getting a foil each time or something, then some addition of products of those odds and other maths), but no need to delve into that again.

I ordered around 80 different P2020 cards directly from Topps, around 15 from Wheeler. I ordered no more than 2 of any card. I got one gold and zero foils.

We humans tend to consider our own experience as indicative of a trend, even though in truth it's random, and basically binary in terms of outcome (you either get one or you don't; you never get 80% of a card). All I can prove from my experience is that Topps did give golds to one card orders (at least one anyway). I maintain (general life philosophy until the lottery payout is large enough for one ticket Expected Value to exceed cost), that only the first lotto ticket is 'worth' buying. If I need a foil of a card, I'd rather buy on aftermarket than spend $1,450 trying to land 4-6 on average (this was last year's math). This year there is no sense in buying large quantities unless you want lots of base cards.

[StonedCollector]

excited for another canseco. lets get a canseco in every round!

[Silas Barnaby]

Originally Posted by StonedCollector

excited for another canseco. lets get a canseco in every round!

I don't care for Canseco.

The two cards we got seem designed specifically to pair with a Project 2020 card, so hopefully we only get 20 Cansecos and the new artists ignore him.

[ThoseBackPages]

Mantle Tomorrow?

[Silas Barnaby]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

Mantle Tomorrow?

How many?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Silas Barnaby

How many?

4 would be great!

[Silas Barnaby]

I could see some of the Project 70 artists doing multiple Mantle cards.

[ThoseBackPages]

i would like that

[salthill]

Originally Posted by JRX

I'm shocked topps has gone a day without a mantle card

It’s not midnight yet!

[par578]

Canseco card is nice, but I don't care for the subject. Also I am a Yankee fan, but how many Mattinglys is enough--- or too many? I think that threshold has already been crossed. I could sit here and list 50 (conservative) players from the past and present who are deserving of a card. Unfortunately, it is groundhog's day at Topps (i.e, their artists), as the same players keep rolling out day after day.

[Silas Barnaby]

If we're going to keep getting Ichiro and Canseco cards at least have the decency to put them in Yankee uniforms.

[skiumah]

Vides Mantle tomorrow

[Oliroller]

Not a good first Mantle card

[Oliroller]

Shin mentioned it on the Vides Munson...he needs to stop with the crowds. You cant see the player's head. It gets lost in the crowd. This one is much worse than the Munson.

[Fratboy]

gee wiz man