The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by BAHoopla

You can see this right on the first page of BO…there are maybe 3 or 4 player threads on page 1 on a given day and the rest is other fluff.

Back in 3 years ago it was the opposite and such player threads actually had posts of new cards purchased…not today

Cardboard burnout is real.

There is a saturation point and it feels like we have hit it.

Why spend money on something that will just drop in price after a few months?

[dream34]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Prospecting was pretty easy 15-20 years ago when draft boxes were $50 and the top chrome autos were $60-$80.

You can’t win when you have to pay $1000 for the best guys and $1000 for super jumbos.

If you can't win, don't do it. Just don't buy them.

I started off with Chrome Prospect Auto's many years ago because they were fun and had upside at their buy-in levels. They haven't had that value for quite a while. Carroll was one of my all-time favorite prospects but I bought maybe around 10 of his Chrome Auto's because they were $50-70 right off the bat in late 2019. Instead I just bought a bunch of his lower priced Auto's ($5-6 each). Ended up with nearly 500-600 of them.

Eventually I was able to afford his BCA Superfractor Auto almost for free.

Originally Posted by seanrs1

My strategy...buy as much Ohtani as possible and hope he becomes a legend in the future that everyone wants to collect (massive demand). Buy other players I like and pray for good fortune. Enjoy the journey. Only spend fun money!

This isn't a bad strategy and relatively has been pretty good over time (Griffey, Jeter, Ripken, Ryan are all success stories) in Baseball.

Don't know if you venture outside of BB, but would also suggest looking at some cheaper comparable Messi's & Lewis Hamilton's. Both are in the Ohtani/Lebron/MJ/Brady line of legends in their respective sports and both are in their infancy stage as far as sportscards go. Worse case scenario, you have Sampras/Agassi/Federer/Nadal/Tiger/Mickelson. Best case scenario, you bought in early on emerging (growth) sports.

Everyone forgets, but Basketball was not always the king it is today in sportscards.

[fishepa]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

My strategy...buy as much Ohtani as possible and hope he becomes a legend in the future that everyone wants to collect (massive demand). Buy other players I like and pray for good fortune. Enjoy the journey. Only spend fun money!

I mean if you're just talking about investing to make money, I'd rather throw my money into VOO for guaranteed gains or NVDA/AAPL/MSFT if you're feeling froggy.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by dream34

If you can't win, don't do it. Just don't buy them.

I started off with Chrome Prospect Auto's many years ago because they were fun and had upside at their buy-in levels. They haven't had that value for quite a while. Carroll was one of my all-time favorite prospects but I bought maybe around 10 of his Chrome Auto's because they were $50-70 right off the bat in late 2019. Instead I just bought a bunch of his lower priced Auto's ($5-6 each). Ended up with nearly 500-600 of them.

Eventually I was able to afford his BCA Superfractor Auto almost for free.



This isn't a bad strategy and relatively has been pretty good over time (Griffey, Jeter, Ripken, Ryan are all success stories) in Baseball.

Don't know if you venture outside of BB, but would also suggest looking at some cheaper comparable Messi's & Lewis Hamilton's. Both are in the Ohtani/Lebron/MJ/Brady line of legends in their respective sports and both are in their infancy stage as far as sportscards go. Worse case scenario, you have Sampras/Agassi/Federer/Nadal/Tiger/Mickelson. Best case scenario, you bought in early on emerging (growth) sports.

Everyone forgets, but Basketball was not always the king it is today in sportscards.

I started collecting again during the covid boom (collected cards as a kid). I only collect baseball, because at the time people were paying ridiculous prices for basketball RC of bench warmers and the economics made no sense to me. I follow the main 4 sports. I have no interest in Soccer or car racing! But I like your thought process.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by fishepa

I mean if you're just talking about investing to make money, I'd rather throw my money into VOO for guaranteed gains or NVDA/AAPL/MSFT if you're feeling froggy.

All money put into my cards is entertainment money. I am other wise responsible with my 401k, taxable accounts/real estate investments.

[Qubits]

I only ever bought one guy out of FOMO and it was Wander. After that very costly mistake I've vowed to never buy something due to FOMO again. So far so good on holding to that.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by dream34

There are a few things that have been doing relatively well.

The key is always learning and looking long term and finding things that are unique and will fit the supply/demand model that collectibles/cards have always been built upon.

Aiming to make money on prospects/young stars has always been tough because the losses are so huge when they underperform at every check point.

Look for things that make long term sense and enjoy the wait.

If junk bonds returned 5% today, would you invest in junk bonds?

Prices today do not appropriately reflect the degree of risk you incur when you invest. Sports cards have to deliver outsized returns because of the great risk They’re no longer capable of doing that because the elite prospects have $500 instead of $100 BCAs. Until those pricing issues are fixed, sports cards are not investable assets. The risk reward ratio is so much better in the stock market.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The risk reward ratio is so much better in the stock market.

As is the liquidity and lack of significant transaction costs....

[dream34]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I started collecting again during the covid boom (collected cards as a kid). I only collect baseball, because at the time people were paying ridiculous prices for basketball RC of bench warmers and the economics made no sense to me. I follow the main 4 sports. I have no interest in Soccer or car racing! But I like your thought process.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

If junk bonds returned 5% today, would you invest in junk bonds?

Prices today do not appropriately reflect the degree of risk you incur when you invest. Sports cards have to deliver outsized returns because of the great risk They’re no longer capable of doing that because the elite prospects have $500 instead of $100 BCAs. Until those pricing issues are fixed, sports cards are not investable assets. The risk reward ratio is so much better in the stock market.

For sure best to be diversified at all times. Best thing about traditional investments, stock market in particular, is that government has shown hand that they will bail out when it affects too many Americans (of course them included )

Traditional markets can get boring/frustrating though and cards have always been a fun alternative investment to enjoy while the traditional hold strong.

Carving out a little to enjoy and using that budget wisely is always the best way to approach cards.

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by dream34

For sure best to be diversified at all times. Best thing about traditional investments, stock market in particular, is that government has shown hand that they will bail out when it affects too many Americans (of course them included )

Traditional markets can get boring/frustrating though and cards have always been a fun alternative investment to enjoy while the traditional hold strong.

Carving out a little to enjoy and using that budget wisely is always the best way to approach cards.

This is very well said.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by dream34

For sure best to be diversified at all times. Best thing about traditional investments, stock market in particular, is that government has shown hand that they will bail out when it affects too many Americans (of course them included )

Traditional markets can get boring/frustrating though and cards have always been a fun alternative investment to enjoy while the traditional hold strong.

Carving out a little to enjoy and using that budget wisely is always the best way to approach cards.

All correct. But I think cards are best viewed as a collectible that you can occasional reap financial benefits from as opposed to a straight investment. At least until wax and singles depreciate to an appropriate level to achieve a proper risk/reward ratio.

[imbluestreak23]

Pecking order of investments for a typical W2 normal person:
-401k maxed to the IRS limit
-an IRA/mutual fund/stock strategy
-Real estate 2011 - 2020
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-
-
-
-
-
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-Maybe real estate in 2024 if it's a foreclosure or non residential property/niche RE market (think non traditional, housing market is FKd)

Then you can think about throwin' some coin at cardboard you think will go up, but more than likely won't. If you aren't doing the things above including the things like RE which appear to be horrible investments in 2024 and depending on local is in for a massive correction, I wouldn't consider investing in cardboard.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Qubits

Isn't the smartest way to sell cards "for a living" to just buy things far enough below comps that you can simply flip it immediately for a profit?

The only cards I've bought specifically to profit off of this is precisely what I did. If I hold a card for more than a month that I only bought to sell I start to get nervous unless its vintage/retired stuff.

I'm sure there are some folks that make a nice profit doing statline scouting and boomer eye testing players and watching the market like a hawk or whatever but this really seems like the difficult way to go about it. Only worthwhile if those activities are fun for you. Also, far more risky unless you've really got a crystal ball and can see the future.

Yes. The issue is when you do this you win auctions at a lower rate, so you just spend the time saved from not doing that other stuff putting in more bids.

Personally, I enjoy that other stuff and did a lot of it even before I started selling "full time". To the point that I still don't even track hours worked, because it hardly feels like work.

Originally Posted by StateEx

You also have to pay income tax if you're a seller. It's all-but impossible to break even once you account for fees and taxes unless the market is shooting up, which it obviously isn't.

I think the impact of increased attention to existing tax rules (e.g., via ebay/paypal) is going to have a huge impact on the hobby -- further, I don't think people have priced this in yet.

It's much more difficult, but certainly not impossible. I am going to end up spending twice as much this year vs last, doing 50% more work, and making half as much. But still a solid profit.

That is against the backdrop not just of a market that isn't shooting up, but pretty damn close to the worst case scenario (bottomed late, peaked early, then started falling immediately). Quite frankly, I think operating in a market that is shooting up would be pretty difficult too, due to the cost of replacing inventory (although much, much better that this). Ideally I think I'd like to see a softly rising market (say 5% year over year with a strong and predictable seasonal cycle).

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

If junk bonds returned 5% today, would you invest in junk bonds?

Prices today do not appropriately reflect the degree of risk you incur when you invest. Sports cards have to deliver outsized returns because of the great risk They’re no longer capable of doing that because the elite prospects have $500 instead of $100 BCAs. Until those pricing issues are fixed, sports cards are not investable assets. The risk reward ratio is so much better in the stock market.

We're getting pretty close to being back to this. I actually thought about making a post on this topic, but was going to wait until I updated prices again. Instead I'll do it now.

If I break prospects into two groups;

Group 1-2023 Bowman Chrome, 2023 Bowman Draft, 2024 Bowman

Group 2-Everything else

Group 1 hasn't gone through an offseason (or more specifically, the post national lull) outside of its release cycle yet, so their prices are still outlandish. If we call Group 2 established or whatever, as of my last update a little over two weeks ago;

1) Holliday $400 and falling fast, injured since
2) Wood $250 and injured since, although I don't think that has stopped his momentum
3) ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If Holliday graduates or gets clobbered between now and November, prospects will be near Nov. 2017 levels when the top four were Vlad ($250), Acuna ($225), Gleyber ($160), and Eloy ($130). Then there were a bunch of guys in the $75-100 range. That is exactly what the spreadsheet looks like right now....with at least two months of price beatings still in front of us.

[KhalDrogo]

Crews opened up above $400. Now we’re half that. It’s the opening prices that matter, not the prices after players have flopped. I’d take the bet that Crews is never $400 raw again. He doesn’t have what it takes to be hobby good. But there are enough people out there buying this stuff who have no clue what they’re doing. We need to weed those people out. But it appears they have an endless supply of money to piss away.

[solt0131]

A lot of you guys should just get out now while you can. Put your money into something else.

[seanrs1]

rwperu34....now that the market is below 2019 levels, do you have a prediction to when the market might rise again? Or is everything going to all go down for the foreseeable future as if this is junk wax 2.0?

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Crews opened up above $400. Now we’re half that. It’s the opening prices that matter, not the prices after players have flopped. I’d take the bet that Crews is never $400 raw again. He doesn’t have what it takes to be hobby good. But there are enough people out there buying this stuff who have no clue what they’re doing. We need to weed those people out. But it appears they have an endless supply of money to piss away.

I don’t think the sellers here want to weed these people out. That’s how they recoup their money on ripping wax/cases.

[80s Kid]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

If junk bonds returned 5% today, would you invest in junk bonds?

Prices today do not appropriately reflect the degree of risk you incur when you invest. Sports cards have to deliver outsized returns because of the great risk They’re no longer capable of doing that because the elite prospects have $500 instead of $100 BCAs. Until those pricing issues are fixed, sports cards are not investable assets. The risk reward ratio is so much better in the stock market.

I’m seeing cash deposits up to 5% in lots of places right now so you don’t even need junk bonds.

Even really safe money methods get a much better return than cards. Hopefully everyone here is just spending within their means and having fun with whatever their card strategy is.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

rwperu34....now that the market is below 2019 levels, do you have a prediction to when the market might rise again? Or is everything going to all down for the foreseeable future as if this is junk wax 2.0?

Just enjoy the ride. I’m having a lot more fun collecting now than I did in 2020-2022. Take a young player like CJ Abrams, I can get awesome cards of his at a fraction of the price they would have been going for during the Pandemic Peak. Some of these young players will sputter out and have no long term relevance (most actually), but a few will go on to have great careers and those guys will see a gradual increase in their cards values. I wouldn’t be holding your breath for a Pandemic level pump again though. Too many people here learned their lesson and will be sellers instead of buyers this time which will help deflate values.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by 80s Kid

I’m seeing cash deposits up to 5% in lots of places right now so you don’t even need junk bonds.

Even really safe money methods get a much better return than cards. Hopefully everyone here is just spending within their means and having fun with whatever their card strategy is.

That’s my point. Nobody would invest in junk bonds at the same yield as short term treasuries. Hence, nobody should be investing in sports cards when the potential yield is no better than the stock market.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That’s my point. Nobody would invest in junk bonds at the same yield as short term treasuries. Hence, nobody should be investing in sports cards when the potential yield is no better than the stock market.

That's why it's time for a lot of you guys to get out and don't look back. Take your money now while it's still worth something. Venture into something else.

[hermanotarjeta]

It would be wise for most investors to take a year or two off and maybe re-evaluate things at that time.

You aren’t going to miss a thing, though prices could be even lower by then.

[mogwai316]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Crews opened up above $400. Now we’re half that. It’s the opening prices that matter, not the prices after players have flopped. I’d take the bet that Crews is never $400 raw again. He doesn’t have what it takes to be hobby good. But there are enough people out there buying this stuff who have no clue what they’re doing. We need to weed those people out. But it appears they have an endless supply of money to piss away.

Why would you want to weed out the people that you can make money from? That's the equivalent of chasing away the fish from the poker table.

[JRX]

Are 2018 Ohtani autos down 90%?