Potential Worth of Soccer Cards as Market Grows

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by jjeanius

Because most collectors are much more caught up in what might be, rather than what has been. Same as it ever was.

True.

My point is just that at least right now, this is leading to an extreme level of recency bias, with the cards of young, unproven, players being pumped up to ridiculous levels.

Take Mbappe, for example. Good young player with a bright future ahead of him. But what's his upside at this point? His cards are already at Messi/CR7 price levels.

-10% chance he becomes the next Messi/CR7 (i.e. dominant player at a huge club).

-40% chance he becomes the next Thierry Henry....great player on big clubs, but not considered to be a transcendental superstar in the world of sports cards.

-25% chance he becomes the next Antione Griezmann/Gareth Bale/Neymar, i.e. a star at a smaller club, or second fiddle at a bigger club

-25% chance his career is wrecked by recurring injuries

Look at Haaland....he's played 9 whole games in the Bundesliga...if he fulfills his potential he might have as good a career as.....Robert Lewandowski (i.e. stud goal-scorer from a small country that has no hope of winning anything internationally).

The issue is simply that so many people are now trying to invest in the next "hot" thing, that prices have gotten way ahead of achievement levels.

[obenheimer]

So is it simply Mbappe fueling the 2017-18 TC CL card prices? Over the past two months, boxes have jumped up 5-10x what they were. Back in February you could still buy boxes for $20 DLVD and now they are over $200. A few months ago I could have bought a sealed case of 12 boxes from Blowout for under $600, now they are selling cases for $3500+. Over the past two weeks his inserts in that set have gone from $10-$15 to over $50 each. It just blows my mind with how much they are jumping up with NO soccer being played.

I'm just happy I bought 4 boxes a couple of years ago and ended up getting the Mbappe refractor. I am building a set, so I have his rookie, refractor, and one other insert. I do wish I was a bigger fan back then, because I also pulled a gold refractor insert of his but sold it for like $10 a few months later. I also sold his extra rookie I had for super cheap.

[marlinsfan9108]

Anyone think we'll see the same meteoric rise in Prizm base of Ronaldo and Messi that we've seen in other sports I.E Lebron, Brady? Seems prices still relatively low if soccer follows suit

[obenheimer]

Originally Posted by marlinsfan9108

Anyone think we'll see the same meteoric rise in Prizm base of Ronaldo and Messi that we've seen in other sports I.E Lebron, Brady? Seems prices still relatively low if soccer follows suit

I feel we could see a rise like that with soccer, but maybe not with Messi or Ronaldo, but rather Mbappe, Sancho, and other younger guys. I could honestly see the Mbappe TC raw base rookie selling for $500-$1000 in the next 5-8 years and his base raw refractor selling for $3000+. I feel people will move on from the older guys and focus more on the younger guys, like they do in other sports.

As 2017-18 TC CL dries up, the prices are going to go into orbit. Like I said in my previous post on here, a few months ago you could have bought a sealed case for under $600, now it's 6 times that or more.

[SnipeLeafs101]

This is how you get those long-term salty gentleman in the market

(Mbappe at $55 per base) Make profound statements like "Mbappe prices are overpriced, i would never pay this, they are DEFINITELY GOING TO GO DOWN - 1000% NO DOUBT"

Fast forward 2 years

(Mbappe at $120 per base) THE HOBBY ISN'T A HOBBY ANYMORE, ITS A BUSINESS, THE GOOD OLD DAYS WERE EXCEPTIONAL.WHY IS MBAPPE MORE THAN "Insert soccer legend"

Ah, soccer and every other market.. so different, but so much of the same

[Nobody0211]

Dave and Adams has Donruss 18/19 jumbo box at $59, was $49 a couple weeks ago. 2018 WC Prizm is almost sold out everywhere or near $199. Noticed an hour ago, Target has them for $150.

[GrangerCollectr]

Here's a little sneak peek at my Mbappe stash and I hope you are right about his base Topps Chrome raw creeping up towards a $100 per. Have a bunch more TC and Prizm color stuck at PSA and hope to have those back by summer

[fadster]

I'd feel a lot better about all the price rises across sports if they hold once sport starts again and more products are released. There all sorts of buying groups, pump and dumps, bored people and limited product out there and it's a dangerous combination.

The next two years are massive for Mbappe now. He's been ahead of the curve so far but this is when Messi and Ronaldo really kicked on and started picking up Ballon d'ors. He has Euro 2021 and the 2022 World Cup to create a legacy and a few more shots to win the Champions League within that window. It's potential rocket fuel if he does well but if he disappoints there are a whole host of other players for people to dump him for

Its also worth remembering before this era of domination by Messi and Ronaldo we had 17 different winners of the Ballon d'or in 18 years. It might be that we end up back in that situation again with a mix of established players like Neymar and Greizmann battling it out with Mbappe and young guns like Sancho, Vinicius and a bunch of guys we've not heard of yet.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The issue is simply that so many people are now trying to invest in the next "hot" thing, that prices have gotten way ahead of achievement levels.

This is not unique to soccer. You know this.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by obenheimer

I feel we could see a rise like that with soccer, but maybe not with Messi or Ronaldo, but rather Mbappe, Sancho, and other younger guys. I could honestly see the Mbappe TC raw base rookie selling for $500-$1000 in the next 5-8 years and his base raw refractor selling for $3000+. I feel people will move on from the older guys and focus more on the younger guys, like they do in other sports.

As 2017-18 TC CL dries up, the prices are going to go into orbit. Like I said in my previous post on here, a few months ago you could have bought a sealed case for under $600, now it's 6 times that or more.

I’m a big believer in the promise of Mbappe and Sancho and the soccer market as a whole. I’ve definitely put my money where my mouth is on this stance, but...

All that being said, my money is on specifically Ronaldo and Messi’s cards continuing to climb, possibly to meteoric levels as new money comes into the market. The hobby will funnel massive amounts of money into GOATs like MJ and Brady. Messi is that man in soccer with Ronaldo nipping at his heels. Pele is kinda like Mantle for lack of a better hobby comparison so you have almost a completely different clientele going after his stuff. His greatness won’t take anything away from Messi or Ronaldo’s demand.

Messi will go down as the possible GOAT or co-GOAT with Ronaldo not far behind. Their fan bases are huge and are going nowhere fast. The market for their cards is going to explode if card collecting becomes half as global as the game itself.

I’ve already watched their low numbered parallels and rare inserts increase almost 5-10x in less than a year. I think people can see it coming. Mbappe and Sancho are fantastic investments, but as their prices rise the risk/reward trade off starts to shift. I absolutely bought in on them, but I bought in very low on both Mbappe and Sancho. I think at CURRENT prices, the safest money in soccer is Messi and CR7. Rookies, low numbered parallels, graded rookies.

I know soccer only collectors will hate me for saying this, but if you really want to know what’s going to blow up, look at basketball trends. These are the trends shaping nearly every market right now.


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[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by GrangerCollectr

Here's a little sneak peek at my Mbappe stash and I hope you are right about his base Topps Chrome raw creeping up towards a $100 per. Have a bunch more TC and Prizm color stuck at PSA and hope to have those back by summer

That is truly something! I don’t even want to know how cheap you acquired the majority of those, I may turn green with envy haha. Im


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[obenheimer]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

That is truly something! I don’t even want to know how cheap you acquired the majority of those, I may turn green with envy haha. Im


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I'm not sure I want to know either how cheap he bought all these. I was lucky to pull an Mbappe refractor out of a box, so I won't have to shell out massive amounts of money to complete my refractor set. I'm not a huge soccer collector, I'm more of a set builder, so I have sets from all sports. I love TC, so I found 4 boxes a couple of years ago at Blowout and went to their shop and bought all 4 for maybe $50 each and pulled them. I also pulled an Mbappe gold refractor insert, but let it go super cheap a few months after I pulled it.

I feel a big factor that will help Mbappe's TC cards remain high and continue to go into orbit if he becomes one of the best in the world, is simply the fact that they are TC. People love the chrome cards. Messi and CR7, with as great as they are and will go down as two of the best ever, don't have chrome "rookies." The 2017-18 TC CL set will end up being one of the best and most popular soccer card sets of all time. It was the first ever chrome soccer set and just in the past few months has gone through the roof. Even Messi's and CR7's autos and refractor cards from that set are going sky high. In two months boxes have gone from $20 DLVD on eBay to over $200 each.

[GrangerCollectr]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

That is truly something! I don’t even want to know how cheap you acquired the majority of those, I may turn green with envy haha. Im


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Thank you! For the first time in all the years that I've been collecting all sports I chose to collect 2 players early on and went heavy on them with Mbappe and Sancho...and it paid off. I think my favorite purchase was probably the Orange refractor. Bought it raw back in December for $355. Most I paid for an Mbappe is the Superfractor - keeping that price to myself

[jjeanius]

A few new Mbappes that just arrived today.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by jjeanius

A few new Mbappes that just arrived today.

Nice work!!!


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[mfw13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

This is not unique to soccer. You know this.

Which is why I also know that it usually ends badly for those who buy on the way up at already inflated prices hoping to flip for a profit before the next hot new guys come along and everyone forgets the current hot new guys.

Perfect example of this in soccer would be guys like Neymar and Pogba, who although hyped to the heavens a few years ago, have turned out to be merely pretty good.

In baseball, Bryant (2016), Judge (2017), and Ohtani (2018) were all getting Mpabbe/Haaland/Sancho levels of hype at one point in time, with prices to match. Now they've all largely been forgotten about in favor of Soto/Acuna/Tatis/Vlad/Alonso/Alvarez/Lux/Bichette.

And don't get me started on football QB's....anybody remember RGIII? Didn't think so....

The number of players who actually live up to their hype is miniscule....

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by jjeanius

A few new Mbappes that just arrived today.

That’s one too many. Why don’t you just send me that Zebra?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Which is why I also know that it usually ends badly for those who buy on the way up at already inflated prices hoping to flip for a profit before the next hot new guys come along and everyone forgets the current hot new guys.

Perfect example of this in soccer would be guys like Neymar and Pogba, who although hyped to the heavens a few years ago, have turned out to be merely pretty good.

In baseball, Bryant (2016), Judge (2017), and Ohtani (2018) were all getting Mpabbe/Haaland/Sancho levels of hype at one point in time, with prices to match. Now they've all largely been forgotten about in favor of Soto/Acuna/Tatis/Vlad/Alonso/Alvarez/Lux/Bichette.

And don't get me started on football QB's....anybody remember RGIII? Didn't think so....

The number of players who actually live up to their hype is miniscule....

This is all true. But the intelligent investor can find many opportunities along the ride to exit. You can still make money off a total bust so long as you don’t buy at the absolute top.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Autos are boring.

Look at the market around you. Sports cards are on fire, and soccer is just getting off the ground.

Retired players autos can pay for a box in Soccer. This is something that you can rarely say about basketball (don't know about other sports).

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Messi will go down as the possible GOAT or co-GOAT with Ronaldo not far behind.

Not.

Perfectly example of recency bias.

Messi has been fun to watch, but his inability to win a title with Argentina will always be a huge black mark against him.

CR7 has at least won an international title (Euro 2016) with Portgual, and also has more Champions League titles than Messi (5-3).

But among modern players you've got Zidane, and before him Beckenbauer, Maradona, and Cruyff.

And of course then there's Pele...who most people will always consider to be the GOAT.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

This is all true. But the intelligent investor can find many opportunities along the ride to exit. You can still make money off a total bust so long as you don’t buy at the absolute top.

True...but those opportunities were several months ago, before prices went through the roof.

I don't know if we're at the top for these players or not, but there's a lot more downside risk at these prices than upside risk.

[Akphillips86]

What is kind of funny is that I have been on both sides of Messi/CR7 and Mbappe/Sancho. The major factor I think is the buy in point. A few months ago buying in on Mbappe and Sancho for me was an automatic decision, now it’s a wrestle at current prices.

I think there are ALOT of great buys on Messi and CR7 right now ironically whereas the good buys for Mbappe and Sancho are a bit harder to find. There is a lot of room for growth for these two (Messi/CR7) given their already cemented legend status. A lot of base, parallels and inserts are wayyyy undervalued. Rookies are climbing steadily and will continue to do so.

When they exit, their careers will be two of the most glorified in the history of the game and you better believe their prices are going to see a huge bump down the road.


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[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

When they exit, their careers will be two of the most glorified in the history of the game and you better believe their prices are going to see a huge bump down the road.

Yes to the first part of your statement.

No to the second part.

Very few players, if any, see their card prices rise after they retire. In most cases, their prices drop a bit, as newer players come to the forefront and they get forgotten by all but the most hardcore fans.

Messi and CR7 prices will hold fairly steady, like cards of Pele & Maradona have, but they're not going to see a "huge bump" down the road.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Not.

Perfectly example of recency bias.

Messi has been fun to watch, but his inability to win a title with Argentina will always be a huge black mark against him.

CR7 has at least won an international title (Euro 2016) with Portgual, and also has more Champions League titles than Messi (5-3).

But among modern players you've got Zidane, and before him Beckenbauer, Maradona, and Cruyff.

And of course then there's Pele...who most people will always consider to be the GOAT.

All of the players you mentioned are truly great, no arguments here, but the collectors that chase them could almost be compared to vintage collectors in baseball. Cards changed a lot even since the semi-modern players you mentioned hung up their cleats. It’s a completely different hobby and still evolving RAPIDLY.

Different collectors go after vintage and modern and thus the prices aren’t so much in competition with each other (like Mantle vs Trout).

Even so, in my mind it’s Messi and Pele at the top, lot of different opinions on this I understand, but that’s my two cents.


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[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Yes to the first part of your statement.

No to the second part.

Very few players, if any, see their card prices rise after they retire. In most cases, their prices drop a bit, as newer players come to the forefront and they get forgotten by all but the most hardcore fans.

Messi and CR7 prices will hold fairly steady, like cards of Pele & Maradona have, but they're not going to see a "huge bump" down the road.

I think Messi/Ronaldo are going to go the way of MJ and just keep climbing. The soccer market isn’t done growing by a long shot and people constantly want to put their money into the top of the heap for long term growth.

These two dominated for a while and most importantly as the hobby was seeing a boom and collectors started to pour in. They won’t be soon forgotten.

Mbappe could be like LeBron though, you never know! I think with the market expanding there’s room for more players to grow than in the past. Of course we are all just speculating in the end


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