Topps “Dutch” Auction

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

My LCS said they were notified of the dutch auction system by Topps and supposedly this is what's going to happen.

According to the shop owner, Topps' thinking is they expect most everyone to jump in early to secure product and by doing so, the product will sell out fast, which will raise the initial offering price.

We'll see what happens, but I'd prefer if Topps did it this way and I think it is actually advantageous for both the buyer and seller rather than do it the Panini way.

Well if true this sounds like it will now be like Topps last attempt to do auctions. It's going to be 1 and done or only a few when these sell out way lower than they think using that method. I'll take it versus no auction but this massively favors the buyer not the seller. Topps got rid of auctions very quickly the last time because the few things they did auction sold out lower than they expected. That was with everyone having to pay the price they bought at and not everyone pays the lowest price.

Pretty sure they did this on 1 product in the past and everyone ended up paying the floor price.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

My LCS said they were notified of the dutch auction system by Topps and supposedly this is what's going to happen.

According to the shop owner, Topps' thinking is they expect most everyone to jump in early to secure product and by doing so, the product will sell out fast, which will raise the initial offering price.

We'll see what happens, but I'd prefer if Topps did it this way and I think it is actually advantageous for both the buyer and seller rather than do it the Panini way.

So the "blind Dutch auction?"

[ewokpelts]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

For everyone complaining, most on BO as per usual, realistically how do you expect Topps to sell in demand products going forward? What is a better option than an auction that benefits Topps, the average buyer, and the overall future growth of the hobby? It may not benefit you personally but any type of auction, hopefully fair auctions, are the best option. Any person can now buy any product directly from Topps. As much as they want by the box or case. You no longer have to worry about bots as long as the price starts high enough. We have a 6 year history of Panini auctions proving bots will not take risks. The fair auction part we don't know yet. If they are fair it will eliminate direct members/breakers buying at money tree prices under the table.

I'd love to see if there is a single person here that can come up with a better method for Topps to sell in demand products. I've mentioned one a few times but it really doesn't benefit growth of the hobby but for sure helps Topps and the average buyer that could get in on the plans. Any type of auction is still a better route.

Topps had good success with lotteries, Montgomery club selling more than one box, hard limits(1-2boxes), and fighting bots.

But that was a different Topps ownership.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Basically price for all products is set by the highest offer on the last available box of an offering. So if there were 500 boxes of a product and 499 bid $200 and the 500th put in a bid of $100 … all 500 boxes would be sold for $100 clearing price.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

A fair auction is the fairest way to go. Everyone has the same chance. You can buy as much as you want. There is no ridiculous low cap. You will never have to worry about bots again unless the starting price is too low. You will never have to hope you get picked as a winner.

The majority of people that don't want auctions don't want them because now they have to take a risk. They won't to be able to buy or win a raffle for a product at a price that it is guaranteed they are a big winner.

At least with auctions you will be able to buy every product directly from Topps. A big issue going forward buying at resale was going to be how Topps seals their cases. Or the lack of a real seal. You will know buying from Topps what you are getting. Hopefully either way Topps makes their own case seal at some point soon.

Whether the auctions will be run fairly is a whole other thing. If the usual suspects are still getting boatloads of those products at rock bottom prices or any price pre auction than its just another way of creating a fake manipulated market.

The way Panini used to run auctions was virtually every box was for sale during the auctions. Hopefully, no matter which way of auctioning Topps chooses, Topps will auction at least 90%-95% of the print run for every auction. Panini did it that way from 2019 to late 2021. There are FOTL products now Panini may not even be auctioning 50% of.

A dutch auction is still an auction. If you don't think Topps is going to be fair about it, then there's no more discussion.

As for the floor, it's no different than setting a reserve. The tradeoff is if the floor is too high, then everything doesn't sell.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by prospectorgems

Apologize if someone said this already and I missed it.

I never participated in Panini's dutch auctions so I have no idea what works and what doesn't.

In theory though, dutch auctions would not prevent bots from still swooping in and grabbing all of the remaining product, right? Per my understanding, bots can be set up for a certain price point and if it hits I would think then bots would eat up the remaining product.

I am sure topps isn't setting this up to allow us non-bots to buy product but to be forced to buy product higher and then once the product hits X level the bots consume the rest so Topps is out nothing, in fact they gain a lot more.

It doesn't matter if it's a bot or a person. If they are willing to pay more, they get the product.

Where you'd have a complaint is if the bots were set up at your exacty price point and they came in a swooped it up before you. I feel less pity in this situation though because you would have had plenty of opportunity at the higher price points.

I think the main issue is there are simply too many people out there willing to pay a lot more than regular Blowout commenters.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I think the main issue is there are simply too many people out there willing to pay a lot more than regular Blowout commenters.

There are too many disingenuous and delusional folks on here who think there is some magic formula where everyone can get a box of Cosmic baseball or Chrome basketball at $99.99 without a large print run. Until those folks step into reality, every one of these threads will just go round and round. There are those who are legitimately interested in creative strategies to get more product into the hands of people, and those who choose to stay stuck in their simple-minded and unrealistic thinking that something "should" sell for less than it does.

[hermanotarjeta]

The one silver lining, ironically, is that in an economic recession, everything in the hobby may be available at lower prices, including sealed boxes.

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

[Boo]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

My LCS said they were notified of the dutch auction system by Topps and supposedly this is what's going to happen.

According to the shop owner, Topps' thinking is they expect most everyone to jump in early to secure product and by doing so, the product will sell out fast, which will raise the initial offering price.

We'll see what happens, but I'd prefer if Topps did it this way and I think it is actually advantageous for both the buyer and seller rather than do it the Panini way.

Why would Topps do it that way, they get the most money by making people pay what they bought at.

[Osfan81]

A fair auction would involve Topps saying how much product is available and how much is left at the price point. Let’s see if they do that.

[Boo]

Originally Posted by Osfan81

A fair auction would involve Topps saying how much product is available and how much is left at the price point. Let’s see if they do that.

Fair, Topps?

If anything is guaranteed, it’s that there will not be a counter showing available units.

[Osfan81]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

There are too many disingenuous and delusional folks on here who think there is some magic formula where everyone can get a box of Cosmic baseball or Chrome basketball at $99.99 without a large print run. Until those folks step into reality, every one of these threads will just go round and round. There are those who are legitimately interested in creative strategies to get more product into the hands of people, and those who choose to stay stuck in their simple-minded and unrealistic thinking that something "should" sell for less than it does.

Solution: only let people buy 1 box per product, no cases.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by Osfan81

Solution: only let people buy 1 box per product, no cases.

Why in the universe would they do that? They have an army of breakers willing to pay double what you are. Why would they not take advantage? Their CEO would be drawn and quartered by shareholders if he didn’t seek to maximize profit.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by Osfan81

Solution: only let people buy 1 box per product, no cases.

Pay shipping to 10,000 individuals vs. 1,000 multiples? Not going to happen.

[hermanotarjeta]

The breaker culture is willing to pay higher than anyone else in the hobby - why would any individual believe there is enough meat left on the bone to make a Dutch auction purchase worthwhile?

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The breaker culture is willing to pay higher than anyone else in the hobby - why would any individual believe there is enough meat left on the bone to make a Dutch auction purchase worthwhile?

Exactly.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Exactly.

Folks are going to find out just exactly which leg of the K-shaped hobby that you reside on.

Box flipper bois - you are getting exactly what you asked for.

[ewokpelts]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The one silver lining, ironically, is that in an economic recession, everything in the hobby may be available at lower prices, including sealed boxes.

When the bubble bursts, whether due to the feds and gambling or the economy taking a #@#@#@#@, this will all collapse.

We’ve seen it before, but in a different scale. Vintage will take a tiny hit, and junk wax will be back toilet paper status. Maybe 2018 junk will still do well.

[ewokpelts]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Pay shipping to 10,000 individuals vs. 1,000 multiples? Not going to happen.

You do realize shipping costs are the smallest part of the equation? Companies like fanatics have deal with the shippers for rock bottom shipping rates.

[hermanotarjeta]

Your hobby may have been selling sealed boxes and cases to breakers for profit.

Now you will be buying at what the breakers pay.

With EQL you actually had a chance.

Now it’s an even playing field.

Who can you flip to now when the new MSRP is the breaker rate?

[RainCityShecks]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The breaker culture is willing to pay higher than anyone else in the hobby - why would any individual believe there is enough meat left on the bone to make a Dutch auction purchase worthwhile?

This.

[Boo]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Your hobby may have been selling sealed boxes and cases to breakers for profit.

Now you will be buying at what the breakers pay.

With EQL you actually had a chance.

Now it’s an even playing field.

Who can you flip to now when the new MSRP is the breaker rate?

Only moss really had a chance.

[Americards]

I think they can only do this when there is not a lot of different product out, But next year they will be dealing with 3 fully licensed sports and entertainment..
If there is like 1 or 2 products per week , they will not be able to hoard every product for top dollar. It is easy to do this when there is 1 product in 1 month, but when there is 5 or 6 a month, It will change and more product allocation will be released and prices will come down to normal (No more wave 2, wave 3, etc).

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Americards

I think they can only do this when there is not a lot of different product out, But next year they will be dealing with 3 fully licensed sports and entertainment..
If there is like 1 or 2 products per week , they will not be able to hoard every product for top dollar. It is easy to do this when there is 1 product in 1 month, but when there is 5 or 6 a month, It will change and more product allocation will be released and prices will come down to normal (No more wave 2, wave 3, etc).

My understanding is that they will only do this for high demand products, so once every few weeks from fanatics will be doable for the products you actually want.