The Never Too Early 2025 NFL MVP Thread

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Jalen Hurts
Matthew Stafford
Jared Goff


All of these above Mahomes for now.

Josh Allen clear frontrunner

Baker
Herbert
Goff
Stafford

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Josh Allen clear frontrunner

Baker
Herbert
Goff
Stafford

Don’t think we can put Baker in yet. His YPA and completion % is pretty bad vs the others

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Don’t think we can put Baker in yet. His YPA and completion % is pretty bad vs the others

MVP is also a narrative thing, if he can somehow get 12 wins and lead bucs I see the narrative going his way as he's clearly one of the best QB in terms of overall contribution to the team

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by Delta5

MVP is also a narrative thing, if he can somehow get 12 wins and lead bucs I see the narrative going his way as he's clearly one of the best QB in terms of overall contribution to the team

But he just lost to Jalen hurts throwing and interception. He has some catching up to do. None of this matters though as it’s only been 4 weeks.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

But he just lost to Jalen hurts throwing and interception. He has some catching up to do. None of this matters though as it’s only been 4 weeks.

yeah no doubt that def took a hit, but nobody expected him to beat eagles with that many injuries anyways

[Delta5]

Line update

Josh Allen +110
Justin Herbert +650
Mahomes +750
Jordan Love +1100
Lamar Jackson +1400

[Delta5]

B2b mvp is on the card for Allen. Almost favorite against the field

[JWBlue]

Joshua Karty

A kicker won MVP in the 1980s believe it or not.

Karty's kickoffs are pretty amazing. The amount of yardage he has saved for the Rams is unreal.

Of course he won't win MVP but he is a weapon for sure.

[ninjacookies]

LJax cooked. Crazy because his cumulative numbers are still pretty decent. But you have no chance if your team's record is mid.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Joshua Karty

A kicker won MVP in the 1980s believe it or not.

Karty's kickoffs are pretty amazing. The amount of yardage he has saved for the Rams is unreal.

Of course he won't win MVP but he is a weapon for sure.

There's absolute zero percent a kicker won MVP even if they can pin the opponent on 1 yard every kickoff and nail 60 yarders everytime

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

LJax cooked. Crazy because his cumulative numbers are still pretty decent. But you have no chance if your team's record is mid.

Told ya, no chance for him against Allen. The battle was won week 1 and he broke him

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Told ya, no chance for him against Allen. The battle was won week 1 and he broke him

Well yeah obviously after Sunday's outcome. But *if* he would have won that with a strong performance he would have been right there with JA.


At this point JA just has to remain healthy and not have some inexplicable drop off with the huge influx of gambling turnovers (which he has done in the past).

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Well yeah obviously after Sunday's outcome. But *if* he would have won that with a strong performance he would have been right there with JA.


At this point JA just has to remain healthy and not have some inexplicable drop off with the huge influx of gambling turnovers (which he has done in the past).

Since schedule release I predicted this is another Josh year for MVP. he'll get the best record in NFL and also have another 40 tuddies season and easily be mvp

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Since schedule release I predicted this is another Josh year for MVP. he'll get the best record in NFL and also have another 40 tuddies season and easily be mvp

I believe the odds favor this.

But I can't exactly count Kermit out this early in the year.

Obviously it's a have-to-see-it-to-believe-it approach since his last 2 years produced uncharacteristic numbers. But a slow start, lack of run game, and fairly tough upcoming schedule all kind of favors more pass heavy offensive loads in must-win situations.

If the Chiefs can run the table all the way up until their h2h with JA AND Patrick emerges victorious, that can greatly shift the tables.

Now I think a lot of this hinges on whether or not the Chiefs defense can continue on their dominating win over Baltimore last week, keeping opponents' scores low and putting less pressure on Patty to unnecessarily air it out. But it's possible.

However, the biggest thing will be whether he can dramatically cut down on the ints that have plagued him recently. He's doing well thus far. If he can't, he has no shot because odds are JA's going to maintain a stupid high ratio.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I believe the odds favor this.

But I can't exactly count Kermit out this early in the year.

Obviously it's a have-to-see-it-to-believe-it approach since his last 2 years produced uncharacteristic numbers. But a slow start, lack of run game, and fairly tough upcoming schedule all kind of favors more pass heavy offensive loads in must-win situations.

If the Chiefs can run the table all the way up until their h2h with JA AND Patrick emerges victorious, that can greatly shift the tables.

Now I think a lot of this hinges on whether or not the Chiefs defense can continue on their dominating win over Baltimore last week, keeping opponents' scores low and putting less pressure on Patty to unnecessarily air it out. But it's possible.

However, the biggest thing will be whether he can dramatically cut down on the ints that have plagued him recently. He's doing well thus far. If he can't, he has no shot because odds are JA's going to maintain a stupid high ratio.

I'd say he's gotten that figured out: Over his last 10 regular season games, Mahomes has thrown 379 passes and only 1 Interception (a great throw to Kelce that he bobbled in the air vs the Eagles).

Even if you count the playoffs, it turns into 3 INTs in 462 attempts (13 games).

Allen's been very good at cutting down turnovers too. He only has 2 over his last 10 games. It's really the difference in his level of play between these last 2 years and earlier in his career.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I'd say he's gotten that figured out: Over his last 10 regular season games, Mahomes has thrown 379 passes and only 1 Interception (a great throw to Kelce that he bobbled in the air vs the Eagles).

Even if you count the playoffs, it turns into 3 INTs in 462 attempts (13 games).

Allen's been very good at cutting down turnovers too. He only has 2 over his last 10 games. It's really the difference in his level of play between these last 2 years and earlier in his career.

Yeah, but everyone's turnovers are down. We live in an era of "system QB's" where no QB actually runs the offense. It's all schematic, dink-and-dunk trash. Hopefully, J. Allen doesn't have his individual brilliance beaten out of him the the coaching staff the way all others have.

The golden era of QB's was 2010-2020. I will forever miss those days...

[Grid]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Yeah, but everyone's turnovers are down. We live in an era of "system QB's" where no QB actually runs the offense. It's all schematic, dink-and-dunk trash. Hopefully, J. Allen doesn't have his individual brilliance beaten out of him the the coaching staff the way all others have.

The golden era of QB's was 2010-2020. I will forever miss those days...

I believe we have had more interceptions throw in the first month of football. Then we have had in the past decade before over 4 games.

Through 4 games, 16 QB's have tossed at least 3. That is half the league. And many starting QB's, have played fewer than 4 games due to injury.

Jake Browning has only played in 3 games, and he has 5. Purdy has only played in 2 games, and he has 4.

T-Law, Nix & Tua all have 4 as well.

Geno Smith has 7. And Flacco has 6

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Yeah, but everyone's turnovers are down. We live in an era of "system QB's" where no QB actually runs the offense. It's all schematic, dink-and-dunk trash. Hopefully, J. Allen doesn't have his individual brilliance beaten out of him the the coaching staff the way all others have.

The golden era of QB's was 2010-2020. I will forever miss those days...

Interceptions per team/per game are flat to last year, at 0.7. Not that far off from the 0.8 in each years from 2016-2023.

Mahomes' interception total above (1 in 379 attempts) is significantly different that how he started the season last year, 11 in 344 attempts.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I'd say he's gotten that figured out: Over his last 10 regular season games, Mahomes has thrown 379 passes and only 1 Interception (a great throw to Kelce that he bobbled in the air vs the Eagles).

Even if you count the playoffs, it turns into 3 INTs in 462 attempts (13 games).

Allen's been very good at cutting down turnovers too. He only has 2 over his last 10 games. It's really the difference in his level of play between these last 2 years and earlier in his career.

I think the greater picture of what this could mean is that one or both are due for a bit of statistical regression in this respect.

Not a guarantee, but typically numbers have a way of sorting themselves out in the medium to long term.


Based on their complete dismantling of the Ravens last week, it would not surprise me if they do run the table heading into midseason. It's just what they do.

[tjforce]

This is why you don't say "It's so and so's to lose!!" in September.

Right now it would probably be Baker Mayfield or Daniel Jones. I doubt that lasts.

[majestik101]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Don’t think we can put Baker in yet. His YPA and completion % is pretty bad vs the others

Oh, I think we can now safely add Baker to the list after today's command performance.

29/33 --- 379 YDS 11.5 AVG 2 TD 0 INT 90.6 QBR 134.7 RTG

We can take Herbie off the list. Maybe replace him with Indiana Jones

[ninjacookies]

This is why you don't count your balut til they've hatched.

Gimmie weeks are typically anything but.


Next week could cause some drastic movement.

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by majestik101

Oh, I think we can now safely add Baker to the list after today's command performance.

29/33 --- 379 YDS 11.5 AVG 2 TD 0 INT 90.6 QBR 134.7 RTG

We can take Herbie off the list. Maybe replace him with Indiana Jones

Fair for sure.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

This is why you don't count your balut til they've hatched.

Gimmie weeks are typically anything but.


Next week could cause some drastic movement.

Lol, current odds after rhe L

Allen +125
Mahomes +500
Love +800
Baker +1200

The loss barely shifted the odds

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Lol, current odds after rhe L

Allen +125
Mahomes +500
Love +800
Baker +1200

The loss barely shifted the odds

Bills should beat Atlanta, but if not.....