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Old 10-18-2023, 04:26 PM   #51
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Schwarber has no chance of making the Hall of Fame regardless of his career HR total. He's probably 50/50 to get to 500 HRs. If he hits 500 HRs, he'll just be the first non-PED guy with 500 HRs who didn't make it.

When Dave Kingman retired with 442 HRs, every player who ever hit 400 HRs in their career had made the Hall of Fame. He simply became the first with 400+ HRs not to make it.
for comparison sake Schwarber has a post season cwpa of 25% and kingman has -1.6%. I'm not saying he is a HOF by any stretch but being a post season stud surely counts for something.

if he somehoe finishes his career with 450 HR and is the all time leader for post season HR (very possible) surely you cant say he has no chance

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Old 10-18-2023, 04:35 PM   #52
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for comparison sake Schwarber has a post season cwpa of 25% and kingman has -1.6%. I'm not saying he is a HOF by any stretch but being a post season stud surely counts for something
It does. But it's more of an exclamation point for great players. To date, overall post season performance hasn't gotten anyone inducted. Bernie Williams, for example, a great player who was a monster in the Post Season. It really didn't move the needle.

There is an exception however. A signature, legendary moment in the World Series can definitely lift a player from on the border to in the Hall. Bill Mazeroski and Jack Morris being the most recent examples. But Schwarber isn't really headed toward the border. He's not even going be as good as Bernie Williams. Maybe more like another post season legend, David Freese.
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Old 10-18-2023, 04:36 PM   #53
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Schwarber has no chance of making the Hall of Fame regardless of his career HR total. He's probably 50/50 to get to 500 HRs. If he hits 500 HRs, he'll just be the first non-PED guy with 500 HRs who didn't make it.

When Dave Kingman retired with 442 HRs, every player who ever hit 400 HRs in their career had made the Hall of Fame. He simply became the first with 400+ HRs not to make it.
Someone needs to be the first to hit 500 HRs and not make it. The lowest batting average of the 500 HR club is Harmon Killebrew at .256.
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Old 10-18-2023, 04:38 PM   #54
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Someone needs to be the first to hit 500 HRs and not make it. The lowest batting average of the 500 HR club is Harmon Killebrew at .256.
Fair. But the 500 HR Club = Hall of Fame hasn't really ever been a thing. The bar was never that high.
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Old 10-18-2023, 04:40 PM   #55
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Someone needs to be the first to hit 500 HRs and not make it. The lowest batting average of the 500 HR club is Harmon Killebrew at .256.
There are a couple 500 HR folks that aren't in. Steroids, sure.

Y'all remember when Schwarber was in the minors hitting like .330 and we all thought he was going to be an absolute superstar? LOL
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Old 10-18-2023, 04:45 PM   #56
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Fair. But the 500 HR Club = Hall of Fame hasn't really ever been a thing. The bar was never that high.
But it has been. Look at Fred McGriff. The conversation with him was always about how he should have come back one more season to try and get to 500 and he would have gotten in before needing the veteran's committee to put him in.

Once that first 400 HR member didn't get in, it pushed the bar to "500 HR = HOF."
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Old 10-18-2023, 04:48 PM   #57
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There are a couple 500 HR folks that aren't in. Steroids, sure.

Y'all remember when Schwarber was in the minors hitting like .330 and we all thought he was going to be an absolute superstar? LOL
Fair, but that's more of an exception.

Eventually you're going to have someone like a Schwarber or Dunn who really did nothing about hit home runs get to that magical 500 and really mess with voters.
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Old 10-18-2023, 04:51 PM   #58
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I did post this in June when Schwarbs was was (once again) knocking the leather off the ball. My post was intended to be sarcasm,but after a few of us (non phillies fans) have seen him dominate ANOTHER post season, now suddenly he is getting some maybes on here.

Philly fan knows how great this guys is. He was clutch last post season also and apparently helped the Cubs grab a championship. I guess with all the "sure fire" HOF'ers in the league today who either never see the light of day in the post season, or shut it down and run from the media (cough Acuna), it just is more sexy when a player shows up for the most important games versus putting up HOF type numbers against the Mets, Cards and A's during the regular season.
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Old 10-18-2023, 05:00 PM   #59
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I did post this in June when Schwarbs was was (once again) knocking the leather off the ball. My post was intended to be sarcasm,but after a few of us (non phillies fans) have seen him dominate ANOTHER post season, now suddenly he is getting some maybes on here.

Philly fan knows how great this guys is. He was clutch last post season also and apparently helped the Cubs grab a championship. I guess with all the "sure fire" HOF'ers in the league today who either never see the light of day in the post season, or shut it down and run from the media (cough Acuna), it just is more sexy when a player shows up for the most important games versus putting up HOF type numbers against the Mets, Cards and A's during the regular season.
How many players have made the hall of fame based on playoff numbers alone? Which, by the way, are pretty similar to his regular season numbers. Slashing .239/.359/.533

And sorry, nobody is taking Schwarber over Acuna, not even Schwarber.
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Old 10-18-2023, 06:22 PM   #60
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Fair, but that's more of an exception.

Eventually you're going to have someone like a Schwarber or Dunn who really did nothing about hit home runs get to that magical 500 and really mess with voters.

I was hoping Nelson Cruz would be that guy, but it doesn't appear meant to be.

FWIW, I don't think Schwarber gets there.
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Old 10-18-2023, 09:47 PM   #61
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But it has been. Look at Fred McGriff. The conversation with him was always about how he should have come back one more season to try and get to 500 and he would have gotten in before needing the veteran's committee to put him in.

Once that first 400 HR member didn't get in, it pushed the bar to "500 HR = HOF."
It really didn’t. If it was a bar, Kingman would have gotten in rather than going one and done. He didn’t even rate 5%. 500 HRs isn’t a thing with the BBWAA. McGriff was a borderline candidate whether he hit 7 more HRs or not. He never even cracked 40% of the voting. His career was like Norm Cash’s or Orlando Cepeda’s or Carlos Delgado’s.

I get why we’d look at the HOF now and think 500 clean HRs = HOF because all of the 500 HR guys are in. But if 500 HRs were ever automatic, then players who hit 500 would all be first ballot. And that’s not what happened. Among the guys who hit 500, but fewer than 600, at least 3 or 4 didn’t get in on the first ballot.
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Old 10-18-2023, 10:09 PM   #62
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The problem with Schwarber is that he hits for a low average. His value is tied up in HR's. As long as he hits 40 plus homers per season, he will get his at bats. As soon as he starts hitting high 20's with a low batting average, he will be a part time player.
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Old 10-18-2023, 10:21 PM   #63
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It really didn’t. If it was a bar, Kingman would have gotten in rather than going one and done. He didn’t even rate 5%. 500 HRs isn’t a thing with the BBWAA. McGriff was a borderline candidate whether he hit 7 more HRs or not. He never even cracked 40% of the voting. His career was like Norm Cash’s or Orlando Cepeda’s or Carlos Delgado’s.

I get why we’d look at the HOF now and think 500 clean HRs = HOF because all of the 500 HR guys are in. But if 500 HRs were ever automatic, then players who hit 500 would all be first ballot. And that’s not what happened. Among the guys who hit 500, but fewer than 600, at least 3 or 4 didn’t get in on the first ballot.
It's almost like you missed the point. It was the bar, until someone finally hit that number and didn't get in.

500 has always been a number that's been a "they are getting in" number. Until a clean player like an Adam Dunn or a Kyle Schwarber comes along and the only thing they have on their resume is 500 HR.

Here's a question, why does anyone get in after the first year eligible? There's not 10+ hall of fame worthy players retiring each year. What happens from the first year eligible to years 2 or 3 or whenever? It's almost like voters have these personal opinions. Remember, there's only been 1 player ever to get 100% of the votes.

McGriff still got in, selected by HOF members, executives, and some media and historians. Almost like maybe the writers association doesn't always know best. When you say that he's borderline, would that mean that his stats weren't quite there? Like, maybe if his stats were a little better, like I don't know, maybe he hit a few more home runs, he would have been more of a sure thing?
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Old 10-18-2023, 11:42 PM   #64
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Schwarber could very well hit 500 HR. He would need to average 36 HR over the next seven seasons to get there, which doesn’t seem far-fetched at all.

But check this out: his home run total accounts for nearly half of the runs he’s scored and half the runs he’s knocked in. (Well, 42% and 45%. If not nearly half, then approaching half.) Those are really high percentages.

By contrast, Miguel Cabrera’s 511 HR account for 33% of his runs scored and 27% of his RBI.

Without looking at the rest of his stat sheet, that would seem to indicate that Schwarber doesn’t do the other things at the plate that would make a player HOF-level. And of course, that certainly is how it plays out: he doesn’t get many hits, he doesn’t hit lots of doubles, and he doesn’t have much of a track record of driving in base runners or putting himself in position to score lots of runs.

Granted, these past two seasons have seen an uptick in production, but he’d have to keep that up for a decade to approach HOF-level run production. Or he’d need to raise his average and non-homer power significantly to get his OPS into elite territory.

On top of that, he’s no magician with the glove.

Maybe if he keeps up the current level, and perhaps mixes in some higher-average seasons, he could approach a Harmon Killebrew career stat line. But it’ll take a lot to get there.


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Old 10-18-2023, 11:46 PM   #65
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It does. But it's more of an exclamation point for great players. To date, overall post season performance hasn't gotten anyone inducted. Bernie Williams, for example, a great player who was a monster in the Post Season. It really didn't move the needle.

There is an exception however. A signature, legendary moment in the World Series can definitely lift a player from on the border to in the Hall. Bill Mazeroski and Jack Morris being the most recent examples. But Schwarber isn't really headed toward the border. He's not even going be as good as Bernie Williams. Maybe more like another post season legend, David Freese.
Bernie played in 120 post season games with a .88 WPA and a -4.5% cWPA.
Schrawber has played half as many games and already posted a 1 WPA with a 26% cWPA. So it’s hard to argue he won’t even be as good as Bernie when he has already accomplished more then him in half the games (+ will have a chance at another WS soon)
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Old 10-19-2023, 12:12 AM   #66
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for comparison sake Schwarber has a post season cwpa of 25% and kingman has -1.6%. I'm not saying he is a HOF by any stretch but being a post season stud surely counts for something.

if he somehoe finishes his career with 450 HR and is the all time leader for post season HR (very possible) surely you cant say he has no chance
I’ll go out on a limb and say he has no chance. He’s literally worthless in nearly every facet of the game. He has 11.7 WAR and will be 31 when the next season starts. I guess I could go on…
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Old 10-19-2023, 01:04 AM   #67
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I’ll go out on a limb and say he has no chance. He’s literally worthless in nearly every facet of the game. He has 11.7 WAR and will be 31 when the next season starts. I guess I could go on…
If you have more post season home runs than anyone in history of baseball (which he may) I wouldn’t say he’s worthless in every facet of the game.

Hitting bombs in October is literally the singe most valuable thing a baseball player can do.
I’m not saying he’s a HOf (he’s clearly not) just that his total body of work will likely be far greater then his regular season war total
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Old 10-19-2023, 01:20 AM   #68
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Bernie played in 120 post season games with a .88 WPA and a -4.5% cWPA.
Schrawber has played half as many games and already posted a 1 WPA with a 26% cWPA. So it’s hard to argue he won’t even be as good as Bernie when he has already accomplished more then him in half the games (+ will have a chance at another WS soon)
It’s not hard to argue at all. Schwarber’s career will never be as good as Bernie’s; not his post-season career. And not to diminish WPA or cWPA, but no one uses WPA or cWPA to singularly determine who was better in the post season.
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Old 10-19-2023, 01:35 AM   #69
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It's almost like you missed the point. It was the bar, until someone finally hit that number and didn't get in.

500 has always been a number that's been a "they are getting in" number. Until a clean player like an Adam Dunn or a Kyle Schwarber comes along and the only thing they have on their resume is 500 HR.

Here's a question, why does anyone get in after the first year eligible? There's not 10+ hall of fame worthy players retiring each year. What happens from the first year eligible to years 2 or 3 or whenever? It's almost like voters have these personal opinions. Remember, there's only been 1 player ever to get 100% of the votes.

McGriff still got in, selected by HOF members, executives, and some media and historians. Almost like maybe the writers association doesn't always know best. When you say that he's borderline, would that mean that his stats weren't quite there? Like, maybe if his stats were a little better, like I don't know, maybe he hit a few more home runs, he would have been more of a sure thing?
Whittmm, maybe I did miss the point. But it was never the bar.

Yes, McGriff got in. I would have voted for him. But like most VC inductees he was a borderline candidate. The borderline has players below it and above it. The BBWAA didn’t keep him out because of 7 HRs. In his best ballot, over 60% rejected him as a Hall of Famer. 7 more HRs may have picked up a few more votes, but not 35% more. The writers knew why McGriff missed 500 but at the time he is being considered there are players hitting 600 clean HRs. HRs were simply devalued in his era and he lacked any really eye-popping seasons.

The BBWAA may not always know best, but they have 100% of the time inducted slam dunk candidates who weren’t associated with PEDs. Every BBWAA HOFer was well above any reasonable line, and every 1st ballot HOFer even more so.
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Old 10-19-2023, 05:20 AM   #70
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Schwarber is basically Adam Dunn in quite literally every aspect. If Dunn (who still has a longer career) has no hope of making it into the HOF, then neither should Kyle Schwarber.
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Old 10-19-2023, 07:17 AM   #71
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It would be hilarious in a way to see Schwarber hit 500 homeruns with a WAR below 25, average below .230. And sub 1500 hits maybe?

He's hit 93 homeruns the past 2 years, so it's not crazy to think maybe he continues that for a few more years.
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Old 10-19-2023, 07:17 AM   #72
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If you have more post season home runs than anyone in history of baseball (which he may) I wouldn’t say he’s worthless in every facet of the game.

Hitting bombs in October is literally the singe most valuable thing a baseball player can do.
I’m not saying he’s a HOf (he’s clearly not) just that his total body of work will likely be far greater then his regular season war total
Reading comprehension is a very valuable tool that I suggest you use more often. I said “nearly” which doesn’t mean that he’s worthless in every facet of the game. Everyone also brings up the most postseason HRs of all-time thing but he’s still 11 behind the current leader and there are two active players still in front of him.
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Old 10-19-2023, 07:46 AM   #73
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If you have to ask...the answer is no
I believe Kyles teammate already answered this question -
“Bro, Is this a clown question” ?

Next question, should Harper celebrate drinking a Canadian beer at the age of 19 in Canada ?

Last question, could Schwarbernegger hit 300 home runs in a season to reach the 700 home run club if he worked out with Arnold ?
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Old 10-19-2023, 08:09 AM   #74
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Whittmm, maybe I did miss the point. But it was never the bar.

Yes, McGriff got in. I would have voted for him. But like most VC inductees he was a borderline candidate. The borderline has players below it and above it. The BBWAA didn’t keep him out because of 7 HRs. In his best ballot, over 60% rejected him as a Hall of Famer. 7 more HRs may have picked up a few more votes, but not 35% more. The writers knew why McGriff missed 500 but at the time he is being considered there are players hitting 600 clean HRs. HRs were simply devalued in his era and he lacked any really eye-popping seasons.

The BBWAA may not always know best, but they have 100% of the time inducted slam dunk candidates who weren’t associated with PEDs. Every BBWAA HOFer was well above any reasonable line, and every 1st ballot HOFer even more so.
When you have decades of proof showing every clean player that's reached a mark has gotten in, that makes it a bar. Until someone hits that mark who is way behind in every other stat. Then the bar gets raised.

I didn't know I was talking to the spokesman for the BBWAA. Anyways back to the question. Schwarber isn't getting in, 500 hrs or not.

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Old 10-19-2023, 09:11 AM   #75
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You can say it's not the rule, and of course there are exceptions to every rule, but to say it has never been a commonly understood rule of thumb that 500 HR = HOF is simply not true. There have always been certain numbers in baseball that were threshold numbers that meant you got in the HOF. I don't know what circles you ran in back 40 years ago, but every person I talked to back then, or media writer discussing the subject, or literally anyone you talked to, saw 500 HR, 3000 Hits, 300 Wins, 3000 K, as numbers that meant that player would get in the HOF. It just was. Looking back now and saying there was no hard and fast rule means very little. That was absolutely the understanding of the day. I witnessed it.

Of course, as baseball history has progressed over the decades, those numbers changed. Maybe sometime prior to my life it was commonly believed that 400 HR was the magic number. I don't know. But as more and more people hit those numbers, it makes sense that such a bar would raise.

But again, every general rule can have exceptions. If Kingman was an exception to the supposed 400 HR rule. That's fine. And it's possible that Schwarber could end up being the exception to the 500 HR rule. But I don't think we can pretend those numbers don't have historic contextual meaning.

And further, the fact that a person who reaches those numbers doesn't get voted in on the first ballot proves nothing. Right or wrong, far more goes into first ballot HOF voting for whatever reason than just did a player meet a HOF threshold. Otherwise, we wouldn't need 10 years on the ballot. One and done would suffice.
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