How much money did investors lose on Cody Bellinger?

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by LVDan

But Wander and Julio will surely buck that trend, right?? Or is it Walker now?

And more importantly...is Walker the new Michael Harris, or was Harris simply a pre-production Walker?


Inquisitive Arozarenas would like to know.

[RedLabelRecords]

I think Arozarena has immediate value. It’s obvious with the performance lately.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by RedLabelRecords

I think Arozarena has immediate value. It’s obvious with the performance lately.

I mean, it's obvious he's a decently good player. But how have his prices fared vs. his first postseason peak?

I don't see much hobby upside in a 2x/9x guy that turns up 4 weeks of the year, and isn't anywhere near the best guy on his own team.

[majestik101]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

And more importantly...is Walker the new Michael Harris, or was Harris simply a pre-production Walker?

Jordan Walker is a flavor of the week and a nice story. Harris is a strong investment. He's a player you can build a team around.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by majestik101

Jordan Walker is a flavor of the week and a nice story. Harris is a strong investment. He's a player you can build a team around.

Based on how much time Acuna will probably miss, you may have a point.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Stifle

Only problem is, the league starts to compile what pitches and the locations that Cody would dominate or struggle with. Let’s use the numbers (Baseball Reference) 154 regular season Home Runtime of s - only 2 opposite field, 161 tOPS+ Pulled, 66 tOPS+ Opposite field. Cody doesn’t utilize 1/3 of the field, and the opponents know this. Sometimes it takes time to realize this.

Ian Kinsler, Mike Moustakus, Joey Gallo we’re all strong hitters but all 3 dropped off significantly within the same time period.

That doesn't explain why his hard hit rate, max exit velocity, HR/FB% and home run numbers all tanked after 2020. He crowds the plate, allowing him to pull every pitch.

His opposite field rate since 2020 is 19.9%. That's higher than guys like Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Jose Ramirez and Nolan Arenado.

[SDcardguy24]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

I don’t think Investors bought Bellinger - more of a PC kinda’ Player

Originally Posted by MattRoc

That's just not true. His MVP year was before the pandemic boom, but Cody had just about everything you could want in a young player. Gorgeous swing, played in a major market, won an MVP, true 4/5 tool player, all of his important metrics supported his "baseball card" numbers, and had 111 home runs and 14-15 WAR after his age 23 season. He had the true indicators and makings of a perennial top 10 player, Hall of Famer, and someone who had a great shot at joining the 500 (if not more) home run club.

His is just a story of "what-ifs" that we might not see again in baseball for a really long time.

You're right he had that great start to his career and then the monster MVP season & I was sure he was going to torch the Padres the next 10+ years.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Soxrule111

Why not just compare Bowman Chrome Autos?

Looking over the years at my BCA Price Index and eyeballing what it would be now, I'd say he's down about 85% from his Spring, 2021 peak. Over half of that is the market though. The typical player would be down a little over 50% in that same time frame.

A second question arose as I was looking back: How much money did investors make on Cody Bellinger?

His peak was quite a bit higher than my first entry for him from November 2017. It was even higher relative to his low point in November 2018. I'm sure he was even cheaper than that low point prior to his 2017 rookie year breakout. In fact if you bought Bellinger a couple of months after Bowman Chrome released in 2015 or any time in 2016, you would likely still be up.

[DaBears1985]

Going From MVP to closer to league average (probably still above average) is a bit of a dip

[theshowandme]

Let me know who they’re picking next so I can avoid them too


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[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by MattRoc

That's just not true. His MVP year was before the pandemic boom, but Cody had just about everything you could want in a young player. Gorgeous swing, played in a major market, won an MVP, true 4/5 tool player, all of his important metrics supported his "baseball card" numbers, and had 111 home runs and 14-15 WAR after his age 23 season. He had the true indicators and makings of a perennial top 10 player, Hall of Famer, and someone who had a great shot at joining the 500 (if not more) home run club.

His is just a story of "what-ifs" that we might not see again in baseball for a really long time.

Correction - I didn’t see investor potential in him / that doesn’t mean others were on the same boat as me. There was a moment in the Hobby when there was a search for the next Trout, and the focus ended up being on Bellinger and Yelich as likely heirs to the Throne. All that did ( for me ) was point out how great Trout was compared to all other players, so I doubled down on him instead - no regrets

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

That doesn't explain why his hard hit rate, max exit velocity, HR/FB% and home run numbers all tanked after 2020. He crowds the plate, allowing him to pull every pitch.

His opposite field rate since 2020 is 19.9%. That's higher than guys like Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Jose Ramirez and Nolan Arenado.

With zero power. Cody’s oppo Slg % is worthless, he went oppo only 43 times last season with 11 hits. Extra bases in going oppo in 22 (3 2B), .256 BA, .326 SLG%, therefore he attempts to hit through or over the shifted field. The new rules so far have helped Joey Gallo. I could see Bellinger having more success this season than last.

One other thing is that strikeouts are seen as being equal to any other out, that is a fake stance because if a person can reach base by placing the ball in fair territory, that player has forced the fielder to make a play. Bellinger and Gallo are strikeout heroes. Force the fielder to make a play. Just within the week the Tigers had Baez reach base 3 times, 2 errors and a catchers interference, in just one game, 3 ROE’s. How many times do these player reach on error in a season. I look at that in determining value. Derek Jeter has the record with over 250. Put the ball into play and his numbers will increase. Isn’t that what helps Altuve 87 Strikeouts, oppo 19/55 (5 2B, 3 HR) .346 BA, .600 SLG %, Ramirez 82 Strikeouts oppo 19/46 (10 2B) .413 BA, .630 SLG. Arenado 72 strikeouts 14/69 2 2B horrible oppo hitter, has it been a issue in Post Season, yes. I believe when a player struggles with no skill set to hit oppo it shows up in the Playoffs.

[kevbojones]

Arozarena is just a fun and clutch player who happens to play for a franchise that has quietly made the postseason in each of his first 4 seasons

Can't knock his 11 postseason HRs either. he may be one of those cult hero type players as the years go on.

Big fan

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I mean, it's obvious he's a decently good player. But how have his prices fared vs. his first postseason peak?

I don't see much hobby upside in a 2x/9x guy that turns up 4 weeks of the year, and isn't anywhere near the best guy on his own team.

[BonVoyage]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Looking over the years at my BCA Price Index and eyeballing what it would be now, I'd say he's down about 85% from his Spring, 2021 peak. Over half of that is the market though. The typical player would be down a little over 50% in that same time frame.

A second question arose as I was looking back: How much money did investors make on Cody Bellinger?

His peak was quite a bit higher than my first entry for him from November 2017. It was even higher relative to his low point in November 2018. I'm sure he was even cheaper than that low point prior to his 2017 rookie year breakout. In fact if you bought Bellinger a couple of months after Bowman Chrome released in 2015 or any time in 2016, you would likely still be up.

Thank you for doing this work


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[TooManyCards76]

Just playing Devil’s Advocate…

Disclaimer - small sample size be damned and is ignored for this and his underlying metrics do not support this, but…

What if Bellinger plays like he has for the 1st 14 games of the Cubs season resulting in a stat line of… 116R / 116RBI / 35HR / 35SB / 8.1WAR

How much value would Bellinger bag holders get back? Asking for a friend with a PSA 10 2017 Topps Update SSP

[Zauron]

People wondering why anybody bought into Bellinger, guy looked like a great power hitter playing on a prominent franchise in the Dodgers with a ROY, MVP after his 3rd year.

Back then, I said at worse this guy will be a low hitting power hitter with solid defense, on a historic franchise. What's to lose? I figured .250ish average, 30+ homeruns every year with the Dodgers. I mean, he showed that was what he was capable of.

Then everything fell apart and he couldn't even hit .200 with hardly any power. His slugging was a measly .389 last year.

[blockedbyjames]

Cody was a surefire HOF in 2020. Can't fault anyone for buying up his cards.

Soto is a horrifying comparison, because it's possibly true. Cody had back to back bad seasons after taking MLB by storm, and Soto is well on his way to doing the exact same thing.

Amazing first 3 seasons, crowned as the next Trout, win the WS, and then fall flat.

However, Cody has picked it up this year so far, but it's still early. Actually looks pretty good, and hardly striking out at all.

[phdbeckett]

Still holding, and hopeful. I sold off a lot of cheapies (at the right time), and I get to keep my high end stash all in for around $2k. Still promising, and his career numbers still have plenty of time for a turnaround.
Still holding 3 x HTM10 Gold Refractor Auto Gems
PSA 10 HMT 10 Gold Refractor,
~100 rookies and refractors, mostly PSA 10s.

[MattRoc]

Originally Posted by Stifle

With zero power. Cody’s oppo Slg % is worthless, he went oppo only 43 times last season with 11 hits. Extra bases in going oppo in 22 (3 2B), .256 BA, .326 SLG%, therefore he attempts to hit through or over the shifted field. The new rules so far have helped Joey Gallo. I could see Bellinger having more success this season than last.

One other thing is that strikeouts are seen as being equal to any other out, that is a fake stance because if a person can reach base by placing the ball in fair territory, that player has forced the fielder to make a play. Bellinger and Gallo are strikeout heroes. Force the fielder to make a play. Just within the week the Tigers had Baez reach base 3 times, 2 errors and a catchers interference, in just one game, 3 ROE’s. How many times do these player reach on error in a season. I look at that in determining value. Derek Jeter has the record with over 250. Put the ball into play and his numbers will increase. Isn’t that what helps Altuve 87 Strikeouts, oppo 19/55 (5 2B, 3 HR) .346 BA, .600 SLG %, Ramirez 82 Strikeouts oppo 19/46 (10 2B) .413 BA, .630 SLG. Arenado 72 strikeouts 14/69 2 2B horrible oppo hitter, has it been a issue in Post Season, yes. I believe when a player struggles with no skill set to hit oppo it shows up in the Playoffs.

During his first three seasons, Bellinger's K% went from 27% to 24% to 16%, which is an elite number for anyone, let alone someone who put up the numbers he did in 2019. You're downplaying how amazing his MVP season, at the age of 23, was. He walked just about as much as he struck out, actually underpormed his expected numbers based on quality of contact, and was a true superstar. He's always had a pull-centric power swing that isn't made to go oppo with power, but his results for his age 21-23 seasons were phenomenal and all of his indicators were trending in a really positive direction. It just cratered in 2020 and beyond due to a number of reasons, including some pretty serious injuries.

[Neal]

I made 11 bucks ... never really bought into belly

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[SupermanBrandon]

I made $190 (exactly) between 2 cards. I bought and then sold 2 Bellinger cards the summer of 2019. Those are the only 2 Bellinger cards that Ive ever bought, held or sold.

[MyckKabongo]

Not gonna name names but there is a certain doomposter who really should be making an appearance in this thread. There's a funny thing where your inventory can reveal exactly where you ended up bagholding....

[ucLAkers]

Originally Posted by Neal

I made 11 bucks ... never really bought into belly

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I buy into Belly every time I eat a Big Mac….

I do however… still have a slew of Belli cards!

[boxbuster7]

The knock on bellinger was always that he had a wild swing. Even in the minors. Those who lost money on him didn't do enough research.

[fabiani12333]

An awesome home run robbing catch and a massive home run this weekend -- the athleticism is still there.