2023 NBA Playoffs thread

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

If the West standings end where they are right now, I wouldn't be shocked if any of those teams make the Finals.

I can't remember if this has happened before.

If the West standings end where they are right now, I think these are the only teams that have a legit shot of making it to the Finals (assuming all the key players are healthy enough):

More talented but tougher road:

Phoenix
Golden State

Easier road and talented enough

Memphis
LA Clippers
LA Lakers

Nuggets/Kings/Pelicans are solid teams but I feel like they're more "regular season good" than "playoff good", at least as of right now.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ballhawkdawk

Fair point. I guess if you're Boston you don't want any parts of Cleveland since that hasn't gone so well this season.

Hasn't gone well in the playoff either since Obama's first term in office.

Guess that solves this one. Celts are toast is they run into Cleveland in the playoffs!

[packman80]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

3-1 against Philly, 2-1 against Milwaukee.

Better starting 5 than both teams, better bench than both teams.

I will take Bucks bench any day over Boston. Portisand Ingles have been playing very well this year. Matthews D has been good and Crowder has been good since MKE picked him up. Carter off the bench can be a sparkplug on the offense.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by packman80

I will take Bucks bench any day over Boston. Portisand Ingles have been playing very well this year. Matthews D has been good and Crowder has been good since MKE picked him up. Carter off the bench can be a sparkplug on the offense.

Bench likely isn’t going 5 deep in the playoffs.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by daeve

They're 9-30 on the road... 9 and 30. The only other western teams with sub 10 road wins this year are the Spurs and Rockets. And they aren't going to have home court in the playoffs vs anybody. They need Wiggins badly. I'm still a Klay fan and yeah it takes a minute to come back from a big break and to get your legs back, but they don't look like contenders at all unless Wiggins is back to playoff mode immediately and Steph and Klay shoot lights out. Not impossible, but like the Lakers, I don't think it's close to a given.

I would love for them to upset the Suns in round 1 though, and I think that's most possible. But how many series can they go?

They certainly struggled on the road but I think we need to delve into the statistics more than just face-value (aka 9-30 record). For instance, below are the road games they lost by <=3 points OR during overtime. That's 9 games that they failed to close, most coming pre-AS break. If they win all 9 of those, they're suddenly 18-21 (still not the best but certainly not the most alarming).

6 Sat, Oct 29, 2022 7:00p Box Score @ Charlotte Hornets L OT 113 120 3 3 L 1
9 Thu, Nov 3, 2022 7:00p Box Score @ Orlando Magic L 129 130 3 6 L 4
22 Tue, Nov 29, 2022 7:30p Box Score @ Dallas Mavericks L 113 116 11 11 L 1
26 Wed, Dec 7, 2022 9:00p Box Score @ Utah Jazz L 123 124 13 13 L 2
45 Thu, Jan 19, 2023 7:30p Box Score @ Boston Celtics L OT 118 121 22 23 L 1
51 Wed, Feb 1, 2023 8:00p Box Score @ Minnesota Timberwolves L OT 114 119 26 25 L 1
55 Wed, Feb 8, 2023 10:00p Box Score @ Portland Trail Blazers L 122 125 28 27 L 1
74 Wed, Mar 22, 2023 7:30p Box Score @ Dallas Mavericks W 127 125 38 36 W 2
79 Sun, Apr 2, 2023 8:30p Box Score @ Denver Nuggets L 110 112 41 38 L 1

They've also lost a number of games by 6-7 points too. And yeah, earlier in the season, they struggled A LOT more to close out games than recently (though, they've still struggled but they haven't had their full lineup either).

Speaking of lineup, they haven't played the Curry-Klay-Wiggins-Green-Looney starting lineup much this season and that's probably their starting playoff lineup (with the possibility of Kuminga replacing Looney). Shoot, Wiggins has been out a bunch of games and they've still been able to secure wins against decent teams.

For these reasons and many more (especially playoff experience, which is critical because playoffs are another beast), I think the Dubs are a real threat. It'd just be unfortunate if they had to face the Suns in the 1st round as they're possibly the top threat in the West. If the Dubs get the 6th seed, they get to the Finals IMO. If they get the 5th seed, I'm significantly less confident and more hopeful.

I don't disagree with you either, the Dubs NEED Wiggins to win it all.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Al Horford will be taking the opening tip of Game 1 of the playoffs.
Timelord will be coming off the bench for 20-25 mins/game.

If that's the case, I'll go with maybe. I do think a Brogdon, Williams and Timelord bench would be the best one out of the Top 3.

I'll still take Milwaukee's starting 5 over Boston though. And Philly will have 2 of the Top 3 players in those 10 so they are not that far off.

Originally Posted by eastbayak

If the West standings end where they are right now, I think these are the only teams that have a legit shot of making it to the Finals (assuming all the key players are healthy enough):

More talented but tougher road:

Phoenix
Golden State

Easier road and talented enough

Memphis
LA Clippers
LA Lakers

Nuggets/Kings/Pelicans are solid teams but I feel like they're more "regular season good" than "playoff good", at least as of right now.

Kings/Pels would be the biggest shock but it's still semi reasonable once you look at potential paths. I'm not super high on the Nuggets but having the best player on the court and having home court advantage in altitude should be a big advantage.

[jcardstore]

All I know is that I'm hardcore rooting for the Kings. I can't wait to watch them play it's going to be so fun

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

All I know is that I'm hardcore rooting for the Kings. I can't wait to watch them play it's going to be so fun

Funny you say that...

I'm lightly rooting for the Kings. In that it would be cool to see them win, but it will bother me none if they don't.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Funny you say that...

I'm lightly rooting for the Kings. In that it would be cool to see them win, but it will bother me none if they don't.

Yea it won’t bother me if they lose but damn the team and city are so fun. It’s a great story for the NBA.

The beam is fun, the city has embraced it, the announcers are super into it, humble team no mega stars, just all around awesome

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by daeve

posted a while ago and since it hasn't changed, and playoffs are finally here, worth re-posting:



^here are your actual contenders

it all hinges on a healthy god

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

It's a little more open in the West but I still think the Dubs have a good chance to come out. I took a 12:1 bet, not strictly because I'm a die-hard Dubs fan (because I don't like to throw away money either), but because I truly they have a legitimate shot at repeating.

i could try beating the betting market, maybe i can be the jim cramer double-reverse guy for what not to buy.

milwaukee doing longer odds than 30% equivalent probability? then put your life savings on that

[GOATcards]

does anyone seriously disbelieve that a hypothetically healthy suns team is the championship front-runner

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

If the West standings end where they are right now, I think these are the only teams that have a legit shot of making it to the Finals (assuming all the key players are healthy enough):

More talented but tougher road:

Phoenix
Golden State

Easier road and talented enough

Memphis
LA Clippers
LA Lakers

Nuggets/Kings/Pelicans are solid teams but I feel like they're more "regular season good" than "playoff good", at least as of right now.

it's like whether Bron's 8.8 career award shares matter as much given his non-GOAT postseason accolades. fool's gold relative to regular season credentials?

[daeve]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

does anyone seriously disbelieve that a hypothetically healthy suns team is the championship front-runner

they gutted their defensive depth for another shooter when they already have 1 in Booker. Sure KD is a great one, but he and CP3 are an ankle twist away from irrelevance. With Okogie being the lone free safety-esque defensive stud, I don't know if they have enough on that end. Maybe Ayton plays with some fire for once? Maybe he gets benched for Biyombo who does?

Lotta question marks aside from midrange shooting. They are also going to get a tough 5 seed... likely either LAC or GS. So that's going up against championship pedigree either way, and then they get Denver on the road, which is at altitude. Do they have the legs for that?

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by daeve

They're 9-30 on the road... 9 and 30. The only other western teams with sub 10 road wins this year are the Spurs and Rockets. And they aren't going to have home court in the playoffs vs anybody. They need Wiggins badly.

Of course they do.....very few teams can win a playoff series without a key rotation member. Without Wiggins playing at his regular level, they're out in the first round.

With regards to the away record, keep in mind that the Warriors have won a road game in a NBA-record 26 consecutive playoff series, dating back 11 seasons. And while they've been horrible on the road in the regular season, in the playoffs you only need to steal one road game to flip a series on its head.

[packman80]

Bucks biggest issue I think will be health. Right now sevral guys are banged up with ankle sprains or knee sorness. If they can get these guys right by the start of the playoffs or at least the second round they should be ok but if these are nagging injuries that go thru the playoffs it could end up being the issue that could cost them.

[jcardstore]

Cavs / Knicks series odds are out.

Cavs -180 to win Knicks +150 and O/U 5.5.

I like the over here regardless

[GOATcards]

no new developments in the last day on the '23 NBA Playoffs front? no major injuries or injury histories to bring up? it'll gonna be pretty injury-dependent methinks, all that resting up they have to do and all

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by daeve

they gutted their defensive depth for another shooter when they already have 1 in Booker. Sure KD is a great one, but he and CP3 are an ankle twist away from irrelevance. With Okogie being the lone free safety-esque defensive stud, I don't know if they have enough on that end. Maybe Ayton plays with some fire for once? Maybe he gets benched for Biyombo who does?

Lotta question marks aside from midrange shooting. They are also going to get a tough 5 seed... likely either LAC or GS. So that's going up against championship pedigree either way, and then they get Denver on the road, which is at altitude. Do they have the legs for that?

Mile-High Nuggets do seem to be top dawgs of the conference. at Ball Arena do they get eaten alive defensively as the haters predict? (my guess is that they get eaten alive defensively just as much as on the road, but that they eat opponents defenses alive much more at home, just a hunch, it's why embiid's legs needed rest come Ball Arena on the schedule, haha i kid)

[daeve]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Mile-High Nuggets do seem to be top dawgs of the conference. at Ball Arena do they get eaten alive defensively as the haters predict? (my guess is that they get eaten alive defensively just as much as on the road, but that they eat opponents defenses alive much more at home, just a hunch, it's why embiid's legs needed rest come Ball Arena on the schedule, haha i kid)

Denver's whole scheme is to defend the 3pt line and give up 2's because they will outpace everyone on 2's and efficiency. It's also the reason why the whole "Look! Jokic is a turnstyle at the bucket!" is a dumbazz argument, because it's their raison d'etre.

IE - they will gladly trade Jokic getting teammates open at the rim for whatever other teams can shoot at midrange. Suns will be the toughest midrange shooters so likely present the toughest obstacle, unless GS goes on a run and is hitting 3's despite being covered. Those are the only scenarios I can see Denver losing. Suns shooting 70% from midrange or GS shooting 45-50% on contested 3's.

That or Silver rolling out the red carpet of ref whistles for Lakers.

[mfw13]

So....playoff brackets are set:

East: Milwaukee/8th vs. Cleveland/New York and Boston/7th vs Philadephia/New Jersey

West: Denver/8th vs. Phoenix/LA Clippers and Memphis/7th vs. Sacramento/Golden State

Conceivably, the Warriors could have home-court advantage in the 2nd round and make it to the Finals without having to leave the state of California if they knock off the Kings, the Lakers win the play-in for the 7th seed and then upset Memphis in the first round, and the Clippers knock off both Phoenix and Denver (unlikely, I admit).

[tjforce]

Excited the see the Cavs Knicks series.

I feel like this is it for both teams.... a win in this series means the season was a resounding success. After that it's a likely exist to the hands of the Bucks, which is okay for where each team is in it's growth cylce.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Excited the see the Cavs Knicks series.

I feel like this is it for both teams.... a win in this series means the season was a resounding success. After that it's a likely exist to the hands of the Bucks, which is okay for where each team is in it's growth cylce.

What's crazy to me is that one of those teams are gonna be a minor Giannis tweak away from making the ECF. And they would have a good shot against Boston/Philly.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

What's crazy to me is that one of those teams are gonna be a minor Giannis tweak away from making the ECF. And they would have a good shot against Boston/Philly.

Bucks have shown that they are good enough to win playoff games against team's like this without Giannis. Maybe not a while series, but a few games.

What tempers my expectations about these two teams is that the Cavs were 21-26 and the Knicks 24-25 against teams .500 or better.

Compare that to the Bucks, Celtics, 76ers, who were 31-17, 33-15, 30-18 respectively. These are the teams that can beat good teams.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Excited the see the Cavs Knicks series.

I feel like this is it for both teams.... a win in this series means the season was a resounding success. After that it's a likely exist to the hands of the Bucks, which is okay for where each team is in it's growth cylce.

We all know #6 back to Akron at vet minimum is a foregone conclusion in 2024 after Bronny does his customary year at Oregon.