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Old 04-10-2023, 09:28 AM   #51
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Took SPX 4070 Calls when we rejected ATR band at 4071, SPY was bouncing lower BB at the time and had bounced lower BB over the long weekend. first SPY 15m candle confirmed volume of buyers. Sold for $150 profit when SPY BB was curving down, and volume of 15m candle, which was green, was lower than the previous red candle. Also, seems that SPY is rejecting 406 this morning initially. Nothing major, but its something and its practice.
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Old 04-10-2023, 09:57 AM   #52
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Should be an interesting week, banks start reporting earnings on Friday


On SPX 4100 is key. We need to break that to see any more bullish runs.

SPX: 4100 top (break above 4130 next resistance) / 4030 bottom / 4050 key level

Watching:

SPY bounce 406 area
SPY reject 409 area

My main SPY bounces @ 403.72 and 401. Main reject @ 410-410.5.




Also. TSLA is on track to hit my first price target of 177. Break that we should test 175.7.
Trade recap:

Great start to the week so I will be calling it a day here. TSLA SPY & SPX hit today.

SPY bounce 406 area✅- nailed it
TSLA is on track to hit my first price target of 177✅- nailed this one too. I was hoping it would dip down to 175, but I still have a price target of 120ish for TSLA.






Education:

TSLA target price - the 177 bounce was off the daily supertrend. Easy easy play to see coming once TSLA broke below the 8 & 21 EMA's. That is why it's important to look at charts before entering trades - even equity - as you want to get a good fill. Until TSLA hits my price target for adding equity, I'll play puts.

SPY 406 bounce was the same level from last week. It was a strong support and we didn't break it premarket, so you test calls at support. Support is support until it's not, same with resistance. If SPY gets back up there 410 is strong resistance followed by 411.5.

Knowing how to read charts is what gives you confidence to take trades. It doesn't matter if its a long trade (week/month), or a day trade - the technicals will play out the same way.

Hope everyone enjoys the rest of their day.

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Old 04-10-2023, 10:23 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by ajlaxmn View Post
Took SPX 4070 Calls when we rejected ATR band at 4071, SPY was bouncing lower BB at the time and had bounced lower BB over the long weekend. first SPY 15m candle confirmed volume of buyers. Sold for $150 profit when SPY BB was curving down, and volume of 15m candle, which was green, was lower than the previous red candle. Also, seems that SPY is rejecting 406 this morning initially. Nothing major, but its something and its practice.
Very nice trade. Entry and exit was on point.


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Originally Posted by ajlaxmn View Post
Based 4080 open.

Blazed, is it correct stating their is a Gap when both Call/Puts have low O/I?
Gaps refer to a gap in price from previous close to next open. Say AAPL closes Monday @ 100 and news drops, then they open Tuesday @ 105. That's a gap up and vice versa for gap downs. Gaps have to get filled but there's no set time frame for the fill. It could be the same day, a week or years. But it will eventually get filled, so that's why when we get close to gaps I watch for them to get filled and if we're in a down/up trend and there's a gap you can play calls or puts heading into that gap fill.

We still have a gap on SPX @ 4030.59 back from 3/30 & 4127.66 from 4/4 - I leave these on my charts until they get filled.
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Old 04-10-2023, 12:13 PM   #54
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I don't understand most of what's written (especially the jargon) but appreciate your willingness to share and help educate members on options trading.
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Old 04-10-2023, 02:33 PM   #55
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Very nice trade. Entry and exit was on point.




Gaps refer to a gap in price from previous close to next open. Say AAPL closes Monday @ 100 and news drops, then they open Tuesday @ 105. That's a gap up and vice versa for gap downs. Gaps have to get filled but there's no set time frame for the fill. It could be the same day, a week or years. But it will eventually get filled, so that's why when we get close to gaps I watch for them to get filled and if we're in a down/up trend and there's a gap you can play calls or puts heading into that gap fill.

We still have a gap on SPX @ 4030.59 back from 3/30 & 4127.66 from 4/4 - I leave these on my charts until they get filled.
Turns out I could have held that SPX 4070 call all day for a big gain. No real regrets on the trade, just need to hold longer, still, that would suck to hold that all day and probably isn't feasible to think that (hindsight being 20/20).
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Old 04-11-2023, 08:25 AM   #56
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CPI & FOMC Minutes tomorrow. Fed Williams said - "if inflation comes down Fed will need to lower rates".


SPX: 4130 top (break above 4150 next resistance) / 4050 bottom (break below 4030 next support) / 4100 key level


SPX - 4100 key level again. To see any type of move up we need to break 4117 > 4130.



Watching:

SPY reject 411.5 - strong level from last week. We need to break it to see a move up - main reject on SPY after 411.5 is 414.

SPY bounce 408. Key area is 406.
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Old 04-11-2023, 08:28 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by eastbayak View Post
I don't understand most of what's written (especially the jargon) but appreciate your willingness to share and help educate members on options trading.
Thanks for checking the thread out!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ajlaxmn View Post
Turns out I could have held that SPX 4070 call all day for a big gain. No real regrets on the trade, just need to hold longer, still, that would suck to hold that all day and probably isn't feasible to think that (hindsight being 20/20).
Yeah, I do this pretty often - leave a lot of money on the table - so sometimes I leave runners to catch that extra move if I see the trend is still intact. If I'm deep in profits and can't monitor my position, I'll set a hard stop just above break even in case it reverses on me. If I'm not deep in profit and can't monitor, I just exit the whole position.
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Old 04-11-2023, 10:34 AM   #58
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Had a meeting at 9 so couldn't post in time. I meant to post for what I thought the range was based no a 4113 open at 8:45.

Bottom 4050, Top 4150, Key level 4100.

Also realize bottom could be 4060 and top could be 4140. Wanted to post a screen shot so I could show what I was seeing, but not able to right now.
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Old 04-11-2023, 02:54 PM   #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blazed View Post
CPI & FOMC Minutes tomorrow. Fed Williams said - "if inflation comes down Fed will need to lower rates".


SPX: 4130 top (break above 4150 next resistance) / 4050 bottom (break below 4030 next support) / 4100 key level


SPX - 4100 key level again. To see any type of move up we need to break 4117 > 4130.



Watching:

SPY reject 411.5 - strong level from last week. We need to break it to see a move up - main reject on SPY after 411.5 is 414.

SPY bounce 408. Key area is 406.
So what made the top 4130? When I checked at 8:45 the O/I was like 1400 or something, I assume it went up a lot between then and 9:30?
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Old 04-11-2023, 03:01 PM   #60
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That was an awesome sell off killed a lot of premium. Price stability at its finest. CPI tomorrow, should be a fun day.

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Old 04-11-2023, 03:10 PM   #61
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So what made the top 4130? When I checked at 8:45 the O/I was like 1400 or something, I assume it went up a lot between then and 9:30?
4130 is a brick wall (411.5 on SPY), so until we break that we aren't moving higher so that keeps 4130 the top. 4150 will be next resistance once we break it.

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Old 04-11-2023, 03:53 PM   #62
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4130 is a brick wall (411.5 on SPY), so until we break that we aren't moving higher so that keeps 4130 the top. 4150 will be next resistance once we break it.


So I assume that SPX was at 4130 the last time SPY rejected 411.5? Definitely learning something new on that.

That would be typical then? If SPY has a reject that has held for what, multiple days in a row, multiple times? Then SPX top and I would assume bottom in the case of support will be dictated by that?
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Old 04-12-2023, 06:59 AM   #63
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So I assume that SPX was at 4130 the last time SPY rejected 411.5? Definitely learning something new on that.

That would be typical then? If SPY has a reject that has held for what, multiple days in a row, multiple times? Then SPX top and I would assume bottom in the case of support will be dictated by that?
Correct. Always use strong resistance/support levels as top/bottom until they break above and hold. So 4130 was the top w/ 4150 as next resistance if we break through. That way, when you trade levels you have an accurate top at 4130 and can cut your position or stay in if it breaks, instead of looking for a 4150 reject and having the play reverse on you @ 4130 and you end up taking an L.
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Old 04-12-2023, 08:26 AM   #64
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CPI (Mar YoY) 5% vs 5.1% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 5.6% vs 5.6%. We all know it's a bs number, but take what the market gives.

My opinion - the market will dump but first they need to kill massive short positions, this market is so speculatively short that its set up massive amounts of liquidity to hunt.

SPX: 4180 top (break above 4200 next resistance) / 4100 bottom (break below, 4090-4080 next support) / 4130 key level

Watching:

SPY: 413.75-414 is one of my main rejects. Others are 415 then 418.5 (highest probability). Bounce @ 411-410.5
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Old 04-12-2023, 08:29 AM   #65
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Bottom 4050, Top 4150, Key Level 4100.

Edit: Totally Wrong

I rushed it as work was getting in the way.
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Old 04-12-2023, 09:19 AM   #66
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CPI (Mar YoY) 5% vs 5.1% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 5.6% vs 5.6%. We all know it's a bs number, but take what the market gives.

My opinion - the market will dump but first they need to kill massive short positions, this market is so speculatively short that its set up massive amounts of liquidity to hunt.

SPX: 4180 top (break above 4200 next resistance) / 4100 bottom (break below, 4090-4080 next support) / 4130 key level

Watching:

SPY: 413.75-414 is one of my main rejects. Others are 415 then 418.5 (highest probability). Bounce @ 411-410.5
Trade recap:

All done for the day - at least until FOMC minutes. Both the bounce and reject worked out.


SPX: 4130 key level.✅ - grabbed puts at the break below 4130 and cut them @ my SPY bounce level

Bounce @ 411-410.5✅ - grabbed calls @ 410.5 and rode them back up to the 4130 SPX reject.

That is how you play support and resistance levels.


Last edited by Blazed; 04-12-2023 at 09:24 AM.
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Old 04-12-2023, 09:44 AM   #67
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Took SPX 4130 calls, was not paying attention, 4130 was key level and it rejected, and then rejected it multiple times for confirmation. I rushed everything this morning. Live and learn.

Edit: Took a second trade, 4110 puts when SPX broke previous close and SPY showed volume, held until SPY bounced 408.3-408.5 area which had show support prior. $670 profit, much better second trade in terms of entry exit then first trade.
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Old 04-12-2023, 11:03 AM   #68
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CPI (Mar YoY) 5% vs 5.1% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 5.6% vs 5.6%. We all know it's a bs number, but take what the market gives.

My opinion - the market will dump but first they need to kill massive short positions, this market is so speculatively short that its set up massive amounts of liquidity to hunt.

SPX: 4180 top (break above 4200 next resistance) / 4100 bottom (break below, 4090-4080 next support) / 4130 key level

Watching:

SPY: 413.75-414 is one of my main rejects. Others are 415 then 418.5 (highest probability). Bounce @ 411-410.5
Imagine not testing calls at a major support level.

If you took the 4100c your up $1,000/contract - times 5 contracts = $5,000 gain.

Doesn't get much easier than that. You simply wait for a level to hit and you execute.




-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edited to add:

I'm all out @ $2,750/contract - times 5 contracts = $8,800 gain by simply waiting for my level to hit and took 5 contracts.

I exited @ the 4130 reject level and we rejected there as expected.




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Old 04-13-2023, 08:24 AM   #69
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Bottom 4100, Top 4190 (weak resistance at 4175), Key Level 4150
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Old 04-13-2023, 08:26 AM   #70
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Initial Jobless claims came in higher and PPI came in lower, that's why we saw the move up - again, we all know it's bs numbers so lets see how this plays out today. I'd like to see a pump at open then drop like yesterday.



SPX: 4130 top (break above 4150 next resistance) / 4050 bottom (break below, 4030.59 (GAP) next support) / 4100 key level


Watching:

SPY - Rejects @ 410.4 and 411.5 (higher probability). Bounce 405 - 404.5.
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Old 04-13-2023, 08:35 AM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blazed View Post
Initial Jobless claims came in higher and PPI came in lower, that's why we saw the move up - again, we all know it's bs numbers so lets see how this plays out today. I'd like to see a pump at open then drop like yesterday.



SPX: 4130 top (break above 4150 next resistance) / 4050 bottom (break below, 4030.59 (GAP) next support) / 4100 key level


Watching:

SPY - Rejects @ 410.4 and 411.5 (higher probability). Bounce 405 - 404.5.
I don't want to just always wait until you post, but I'm at that point. Way off again. I had SPX with a 4130 open, checked it at about 9:05. Something change? I think I might need you to provide some insight as to better narrowing down the range, clearly I'm not getting it very well, even when I thought I got it, I didn't.
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Old 04-13-2023, 09:35 AM   #72
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I didn't take the paper trade, on TOS mobile again, but would have taken SPX 4100 C on the open as it rejected, and has rejected multiple times. Would have based closing position out off from Blazes 410.4 and 411.5 SPY reject.
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Old 04-13-2023, 10:09 AM   #73
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I don't want to just always wait until you post, but I'm at that point. Way off again. I had SPX with a 4130 open, checked it at about 9:05. Something change? I think I might need you to provide some insight as to better narrowing down the range, clearly I'm not getting it very well, even when I thought I got it, I didn't.
We had data drop this morning so when you check @ 9:05 it might have been a little early as we dropped as we got closer to the opening bell. So I think that was the problem today?

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I didn't take the paper trade, on TOS mobile again, but would have taken SPX 4100 C on the open as it rejected, and has rejected multiple times. Would have based closing position out off from Blazes 410.4 and 411.5 SPY reject.
Great trade! I took this too @ the touch of 4100 - after bouncing a little and consolidating a little it finally rocketed up.

Could be setting up for a trend day (we're pushing up right now on low volume so we could see a reversal around lunch time - we'll see), but we still have to break 4130 SPX & 411.5 SPY if we are going to see any higher highs.
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Old 04-13-2023, 10:27 AM   #74
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We had data drop this morning so when you check @ 9:05 it might have been a little early as we dropped as we got closer to the opening bell. So I think that was the problem today?



Great trade! I took this too @ the touch of 4100 - after bouncing a little and consolidating a little it finally rocketed up.

Could be setting up for a trend day (we're pushing up right now on low volume so we could see a reversal around lunch time - we'll see), but we still have to break 4130 SPX & 411.5 SPY if we are going to see any higher highs.
It doesn't feel as satisfying as I didn't actually execute a paper trade, so feels almost like cheating, but was monitoring SPX/SPY during the first 30 minutes. The data drop might have been the reason, but since I've missed the range so much lately I'll assume I wouldn't have got it right, I'll keep looking though and posting. Makes me think I was getting lucky when I first started doing it and you would confirm I got the range correct.
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Old 04-13-2023, 11:21 AM   #75
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It doesn't feel as satisfying as I didn't actually execute a paper trade, so feels almost like cheating, but was monitoring SPX/SPY during the first 30 minutes. The data drop might have been the reason, but since I've missed the range so much lately I'll assume I wouldn't have got it right, I'll keep looking though and posting. Makes me think I was getting lucky when I first started doing it and you would confirm I got the range correct.
Not necessarily that you got lucky, the market was easier - "easier" - to read. Now, we're getting into higher highs, have data drops, and gaps that need to get filled. So there's a few more things to take into consideration now than before. Remember, 4130 (411.5 on SPY) is a strong level, so until we break and hold that (premarket doesn't count) it will remain a strong level (top of the range).

You've also posted that you've rushed it a couple of times. The days you didn't rush it you were hitting the levels (including SPY support/rejects), so maybe that contributed to the off days?

Also, you haven't been doing this too long so there's a learning curve to the "tougher" days like the past few. So for the amount of time you've been doing this, you're doing great but it will take time to perfect it - and no matter how good you get, there will be off days. I have them too, where I miss a level or forget about a strong level because I didn't mark it.

So it's all good man, just keep learning as much as you can and make sure you journal what made you select the wrong levels; i.e. checked too early, rushed, TOS mobile app sucks and you need to use a chart... Don't get discouraged, you'll get there in time.
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